Next gen's gonna be the worst gen ever! *spawn

[Shifty Geezer]

People have been predicting the death of the console at the hands of the PC for about 25 years now.

If by 'people' you mean 'PC fans', maybe. But there hasn't ever been a point in history that the console as an entity hadn't a place in the market, except maybe the console crash in the 80s when they didn't know what to do. That is changing now due to convergence, with console no longer uniquely positioned to offer games nor limited to just playing games.

The market for updating a modular machine with the latest graphics hardware is still just as small a niche as it's always been.

You're thinking of PC as x86 IBM AT compatible. PC means personal computer. Tablets are personal computers. Console's as we know it are turning into PCs. What if the next XBox comes with Win 8 and runs Office and apps? Then its a computer, not a console.

 

[fearsomepirate]

That is changing now due to convergence, with console no longer uniquely positioned to offer games nor limited to just playing games.

If that were true, sales of console and hardware and games would be falling off a cliff as people switched their gaming to the PC. That isn't happening. Console sales are quite brisk, and the Xbox version of a game tends to be the best-selling, even when the PC version is literally more than twice the game (Battlefield 3).

You're thinking of PC as x86 IBM AT compatible. PC means personal computer. Tablets are personal computers. Console's as we know it are turning into PCs. What if the next XBox comes with Win 8 and runs Office and apps? Then its a computer, not a console.

What's a computer? It's an electronic Babbage machine. With the exception of the Magnavox Odyssey and possibly other Pong machines, consoles have always been computers. And they've always been "personal" machines. And ever since the Fairchild Channel F, consoles have always had apps. Why, you could even get a keypad and program your Atari in BASIC. So PC gaming has always been the winner! Console gaming died with the Channel F!

A console doesn't quit being a console and become a PC when someone programs a piece of software for it that's not a game. It doesn't quit being a console when you can connect a keyboard to it. It becomes a PC when any old developer can write whatever software he wants and sell it without going through the manufacturer. It becomes a PC when the hardware can be upgraded with non-OEM-approved parts. When devices the OEM never imagined and never approved can be connected and used just by installing some new drivers and software from the vendor--that is, when whether or not a device is compatible depends on the maker of the device, not the OEM. When it doesn't matter who made the machine as long as the specs are high enough to run the software I want. When I can wipe the hard drive and reinstall the old operating system if I don't like the new one, or even install some weird new operating system that only bearded weirdos use (and not just the one version of it that the OEM has approved until such time as they remotely remove the ability from everyone's machine).

 

[hoho]

Console sales are quite brisk, and the Xbox version of a game tends to be the best-selling, even when the PC version is literally more than twice the game (Battlefield 3).

Retail sales perhaps. I've yet to see any decent numbers that would take digital distribution into account when discussing sales numbers on PC. E.g during Skyrim launch I believe there was over quarter of a million simultaneous players on Steam playing the game. Considering not all played it 24/7 and it's a single-player game that was quite a feat.

 

[Shifty Geezer]

Your interpretation of PC isn't broad enough. A console is a subset of computing hardware, defined not by its hardware but its application and intention. Being able to add a keyboard or run BASIC doesn't make a console a PC when its selling point is that you have a default controller, put in a disc an fire up a game. That's how consoles started, and it's what has differentiated them from computer gaming like the Amiga, which was designed from the off to do general computing tasks across open software and despite also being designed to be the most awesome games machine of the time.

Your definition of a PC being made of OEM parts is wrong. The old 8 and 16 bit computers were all PCs. Remember that the current use of PC is an evolution from the IBM AT PC as other PC types disappeared, leaving only x86. Look through a 1970's copy of Personal Computing to see the many, many non-IBM compatible PCs. There were CP/M PCs, the Commodore PET, etc. But by definition a PC is a computing device used personally (as opposed to a mainframe or other computing formats) to run a variety of tasks from productivity to entertainment. The Raspberry Pi is a personal computer with zero OEM parts. As is the iPad. It may have dropped the keyboard and mouse for a touchscreen, but a Windows Tablet doesn't stop being a personal computer for that. The windows PC won't stop being a PC if MS decide from Win 8 onwards you can only sell your apps through their storefront.

The difference between a Sega Master System and a ZX Spectrum was the purpose to which the hardware was designed and engineered. To date, even up to this gen, consoles have been built to serve as games machines and not run general tasks. If XB3 is sold on the merits of its app store selling non-games, then it stops being a console and becomes a fixed hardware personal computer. But this is the last generation where the computing hardware is specifically purposed and sold for games IMO. We're already seeing the expanded value proposition, with the "it only does everything" campaign of PS3 drawing people in on more than the hardware's ability to play games, and we're seeing more non-gaming functions being added. They are becoming personal computers, or PCs by the true definition of the acronym. That's why consoles are losing to PCs - they are becoming PCs as people are no longer content to have a box for playing games when that same box could be doing a broader variety of jobs, and to expand the appeal of their boxes the designers have to factor in non-gaming use and non-gaming marketing.

Edit: If it's just an interpretation of PC that matters, one can replace my reference to PC in earlier posts with GPCD (general purpose computing device). Console's are being replaced with genreal purpose computing devices, same as everything else, because the common hardware used in phones, TVs, computers and consoles can be used for a variety of tasks just by allowing general software on it. There's no point artificially limiting the function of hardware any more.

 

[wco81]

I've bought every generation since the Genesis and will buy a next-gen console. However, my console gaming has cut way, way down. Instead, lately, I just play these simple turn-based online games on iPhone, which is always within reach.

Compare that to going to a store or ordering a game, firing up the console and then waiting to get into an online game.

The instant-on and nearby-availability of phones and tablets are something that consoles may have to try to emulate. The handhelds would obviously address some of that but they're not going to sell well compared to mobile devices.

I used to grouse about paying $60 for games and having only 10 hours of gameplay. Now, you pay at most a couple of bucks for an iOS game and often, the gameplay can be good enough to keep you entertained for months. And if it only gives you 5 hours of gameplay, it's still a pretty good value.

 

[DuckThor Evil]

Retail sales perhaps. I've yet to see any decent numbers that would take digital distribution into account when discussing sales numbers on PC. E.g during Skyrim launch I believe there was over quarter of a million simultaneous players on Steam playing the game. Considering not all played it 24/7 and it's a single-player game that was quite a feat.

The multiplatform games sell way more on 360 than on PC. Quarter million on steam is not a lot + people can activate retail copies on Steam, like I did. Digital distribution is popular on PC, but it doesn't bring the totals even close.

 

[hoho]

Digital distribution is popular on PC, but it doesn't bring the totals even close.

Do you have any actual numbers? Last I heard DD market alone was about as big as entire console market if those NV slides that moved around some time ago are to be believed.

 

[Arwin]

I used to grouse about paying $60 for games and having only 10 hours of gameplay. Now, you pay at most a couple of bucks for an iOS game and often, the gameplay can be good enough to keep you entertained for months. And if it only gives you 5 hours of gameplay, it's still a pretty good value.

Some of those games are pretty good value, I agree. But I find they're not a great replacement for consoles, more like an additional thing. For instance, WordFeud is a great way of playing Scrabble and chat with distant relatives and friends who would otherwise not game at all. It doesn't however still my desire for the Super Stardusts and Uncharteds of this world, say.

Do you have any actual numbers? Last I heard DD market alone was about as big as entire console market if those NV slides that moved around some time ago are to be believed.

The DD PC market about equals the Retail PC market. That's quite a far cry of matching the console market. NV probably talked about installbase of 'gaming-capable' PCs instead, projecting the potential market and what kind of room for growth there is.

Of course, I'm sure that if you take in revenue from stuff like WoW, that's a lot of money also. But if you look at the sales of multi-platform games and compare them across platform, the PC doesn't look great, with or without DD.

That said, whatever the platform, DD sales tend to give more profit to their publishers.

 

[DuckThor Evil]

Do you have any actual numbers? Last I heard DD market alone was about as big as entire console market if those NV slides that moved around some time ago are to be believed.

What does those slides say about the current situation? and what sort of stuff does the DD market include in their or in other figures. PC has all sort of different DD stuff, that has nothing to do with your typical big budget multiplatform games.

Actual sales figures especially digital are a little hard to come up, especially with proper breakdowns.

http://itlounge.eu/december-game-sales-tank-21-npd/

That's NPD december retail $2.14B total software out of which $2.04B non PC...

I'll try to look more stuff later, but I can tell you that publishers don't release PC-versions later or sometimes at all, because they sell more on the PC. I bet my feathers that games like Skyrim, BF3 and Crysis 2 sold more on consoles and those are the ones with a strong PC heritage. Other games are even more lopsided.

 

[hoho]

The DD PC market about equals the Retail PC market

According to whom?

NV probably talked about installbase of 'gaming-capable' PCs instead, projecting the potential market and what kind of room for growth there is.

No, they were talking about market size for games in billions.

Of course, I'm sure that if you take in revenue from stuff like WoW, that's a lot of money also.

Assuming wow still has 10M-ish users that gives them around $100M per month.Mmo fees are big but not big enough to have that significant impact.

But if you look at the sales of multi-platform games and compare them across platform, the PC doesn't look great, with or without DD.

I'd love to look at those numbers but I've yet to see anyone giving any specifics about PC DD. Pretty much the only thing I have seen has been that NV presentation. Even most retail sales numbers are complete garbage considering they are simply taking the sales numbers from a few shops and extrapolate the sales numbers from those over entire country or worse, the world. Yes, NDP does just that to come up with it's numbers.

[edit]
Those NV slides I was talking about:
Consoles vs PC: http://news.softpedia.com/newsImage...-Console-Sales-by-2014-Nvidia-Believes-2.jpg/
DD vs retail on PC: http://news.softpedia.com/newsImage...-Console-Sales-by-2014-Nvidia-Believes-3.jpg/

I have no clue where they got their numbers but considering they probably have pretty good relationships with developers they could have a bit better idea than NDP and similar guys that pull their numbers out of thin air. Also I wouldn't take their predictions too seriously but the history part, if true, surely is quite interesting.

 

[DuckThor Evil]

Well No offence, but the source for nVidias slides are "DFC intelligence" which falls under "NDP and similar guys that pull their numbers out of thin air"

http://www.dfcint.com/index.php

Also those numbers certainly include all sort of at least semi irrelevant stuff like MMOs facebook games and whatnot. I'm not saying there isn't a lot of money involved, but a lot of it comes from very different sources.

nVidia is also playing into it's own pocket there.

 

[fearsomepirate]

Your definition of a PC being made of OEM parts is wrong.

That's not my definition of a PC. That's the opposite of my definition of a PC. All your subsequent arguments are thus invalid.

But by definition a PC is a computing device used personally (as opposed to a mainframe or other computing formats) to run a variety of tasks from productivity to entertainment.

That's the Wikipedia definition, I guess, but it's not very useful...you could capture programmable calculators under that definition. The market definition comes from the old "IBM PC compatible" label, which distinguished "PC" as a whole class of computers that were essentially interchangeable, regardless of who specifically manufactured them. (Early on, it didn't even matter who programmed the operating system...not all versions of DOS were by MS). That's part of why "Mac or PC?" was a meaningful question. More recently, that flexibility has extended to operating systems. Uninstall Windows and install Linux, and it's still a PC. These days, Macs are in a gray area. I would argue that since switching to Intel and opening up their ecosystem to the point where you can install whatever OS you want on the hardware, the distinction is really "Windows or OSX?"

The windows PC won't stop being a PC if MS decide from Win 8 onwards you can only sell your apps through their storefront.

It would if it was impossible to uninstall Windows (without modding the hardware or some kind of software "jailbreaking"), which would also entail only being able to get Windows on specifically MS-licensed/designed machines. If the operating system, hardware, and software are a closed ecosystem, it's no longer a PC. It's something else, some kind of specific, dedicated thing. I don't know what you'd call it. It's also why if you built a high-end gaming PC and installed nothing but games on it, it still wouldn't be a "console."

The difference between a Sega Master System and a ZX Spectrum was the purpose to which the hardware was designed and engineered.

You also couldn't write your own software on a Sega, or distribute software without getting a fancy cartridge from Sega themselves.

Edit: If it's just an interpretation of PC that matters, one can replace my reference to PC in earlier posts with GPCD (general purpose computing device).

Okay, then I would classify a console as a MPCD (manufacturer's purpose computing device). If I can't do as I damn well please with the box because it is specifically designed to lock me out of access to its processing hardware, it's not a "general purpose" machine. Consoles are still that, no matter how many non-gaming applications you can buy for them.

 

[zed]

That's the Wikipedia definition, I guess, but it's not very useful.

i dont know about wiki (I bet it is), but its the definition in any dictionary.
wait so youre saying my macmini Im typing this on is not a personal computer

Its like arguing a big mac isnt a burger, but the burger king whopper is a burger!

 

[Silent_Buddha]

It becomes a PC when the hardware can be upgraded with non-OEM-approved parts.

Damn, those early Apple computers really weren't Personal Computers at the time then! As could not upgrade them with non-Apple products at the time. Or Texas Instruments early computers or some of Commodore's early computers. Or any of a host of other computer manufacturer's in the early days.

And damn, I'd guess most early notebook and laptop and portable computers weren't Personal Computers either as you couldn't couldn't upgrade anything in them.

Must be nice to have a such a narrow view of what a PC is.

Just for your information, that term you're looking for is a closed system versus an open system. Not whether it's considered a personal computer or not a personal computer. Man, it's been a LONG time since I've had to use that terminology when describing a personal computer. There aren't many totally closed systems anymore.

Regards,
SB

 

[Shifty Geezer]

Okay, then I would classify a console as a MPCD (manufacturer's purpose computing device). If I can't do as I damn well please with the box because it is specifically designed to lock me out of access to its processing hardware, it's not a "general purpose" machine. Consoles are still that, no matter how many non-gaming applications you can buy for them.

I could possibly agree to that, although for 90% of computer users, openess is just a matter of having the applications they want, and not total OS control, file access, or freedom to develop applications. A droid tablet is no less a personal computer to them as long as it lets them surf the 'Net, type documents, and edit photos. Considering you have freedom to write whatever apps you want on XB360 through XNA, it becomes a very hazy line to draw. Likewise, if PSSuite becomes an open platform like Android, then PS4 would satisfy your PC definition, no?

 

[function]

My Commodore 64 had a label on it saying "PERSONAL COMPUTER".

10 PRINT "TITS"
20 GOTO 10
RUN

Don't tell me that wasn't a PERSONAL COMPUTER.

 

[Silenti]

My Commodore 64 had a label on it saying "PERSONAL COMPUTER".

10 PRINT "TITS"
20 GOTO 10
RUN

Don't tell me that wasn't a PERSONAL COMPUTER.

Oi! You had to stick line number prgoramming back in my head didn't you! Remember, always use base 10 in case you have to insert something afterwards!

 

[Silent_Buddha]

I could possibly agree to that, although for 90% of computer users, openess is just a matter of having the applications they want, and not total OS control, file access, or freedom to develop applications. A droid tablet is no less a personal computer to them as long as it lets them surf the 'Net, type documents, and edit photos. Considering you have freedom to write whatever apps you want on XB360 through XNA, it becomes a very hazy line to draw. Likewise, if PSSuite becomes an open platform like Android, then PS4 would satisfy your PC definition, no?

Dreamcast, PS2, PS3 (pre-slim), and hacked Xbox already been there. Allowing the install of Linux as an OS. Although with varying levels of access to the hardware.

I suppose you can lump in hacked PSP to that as well. Although I don't think you could directly develope programs on the hacked PSP.

Regards,
SB

 

[hoho]

Well No offence, but the source for nVidias slides are "DFC intelligence" which falls under "NDP and similar guys that pull their numbers out of thin air"

yeah, my bad for not looking the slides hard enough
Though theyse numbers probably do show something relevant, at least much more than NDP that completely ignores DD.

Also those numbers certainly include all sort of at least semi irrelevant stuff like MMOs facebook games and whatnot.

MMO's alone are relatively tiny, roughly around 100-150M/month. FB and other social media stuff I have no idea about but it those don't really help NV all that much as they don't rely on GPUs.

I wish Steam would go public, then we would get their revenue numbers and would be able to at least have some guess on how big the DD market could be

 

[BoardBonobo]

My Commodore 64 had a label on it saying "PERSONAL COMPUTER".

10 PRINT "TITS"
20 GOTO 10
RUN

Don't tell me that wasn't a PERSONAL COMPUTER.

It's never been the same since we lost the ability to PEEK and POKE...