Looking at the latest consoles from Sony and MS (PS4>PS4 Pro> ONE X) you get 30-35 % increase in TFLOPS each year. I just cant see going from ONE X 6 TFLOPS to 8 TFLOPS in 2-2,5 years. I think we will see 10+.
40 CUs, those are very conservative specs and imply a $399 price. In line with the 8+ tfops reddit leak. If true then 2020 is going to be very different than 2013 if MS really release a 12 tfops machine.
8 tfops certainly would not look next gen for some compared to XBX's 6 tfops.
It boils down to pricing, and how well the release strategy plays out.
a) Release a 8TF/16GB system at $199... set the console space on fire. Guaranteed success!
b) Release a 8TF/16GB system at $299... the price-performance-value makes it a very attractive next-generation product. High probability for success.
c) Release a 8TF/16GB system at $399... the price-performance-value is still there, however, the web-noise of Xbox One X being close in performance will echo more at that price point, and drown-out most of the perceived value.
d) Release a 8TF/16GB system at $499... DOA. Internet explodes!!!!
I don't see 'a' or 'b' happening, however, I see the 'c' strategy being more likely (If the 8TF rumor is true).
IMHO, it would be in Sony's best interests as the current generation leader (towards carrying over its current user base to PS5), is to either aim for the 'b' release strategy and except a BoM hit (-$100) on $400 worth of hardware. Or scale up PS5s hardware (10-12TF) and still except a certain amount of BoM losses ($100-$200) on $600 dollars worth of hardware.
FYI: Previous PlayStation BoM losses at launch...
PS1: $80-$100
PS2: $180
PS3: $195-$205
PS4: None (profiting $20-$22)