Next Generation Hardware Speculation with a Technical Spin [pre E3 2019]

[DmitryKo]

the Vega based Radeon Pro SSG uses 4x 512 GB Samsung SM961 NVMe M.2 SSDs

Oh. So the damn Vega has additional x16 PCIe lanes (and likely an onboard NVMe controller)... it makes more sense to me now.

I'd still think a game console would be better off with direct NVRAM interface to onboard QLC NAND flash, rather than an M.2 connector to a 3rd party SSD. Guess it would depend on the logistics of planned console SKUs though.

 

[fehu]

Now we are arguing on Sony's business plan based on Microsoft's rumors?

 

[HBRU]

I think an 8 Tf ps5 at end 2019 is not disappointing IMHO... But we know that a ps5pro will come maybe 2023. Maybe same butterfly approach as Ps4pro. Zen2 (16 threads) + 8 TF gpu is quite a lot on a single die. Will be happy if someone tries to give some transistor count numbers. I think also some basic RT tech will be there. With 8 TF 12 Gb Ram will be enough.

Basically ps5 has to play ps4pro games at same resolution (and with the same upscaling tech) but at 60 fps... So doubling the GPU calc power is quite intuitive approach. You need also to double the bandwidth. That also takes a lot of transistors. So totally credible leaks... Imo. Ps5@399 $... Ps4pro(7 nm)@199 $.... Don't understand the 4 tf Xbox. That's seems crazy. They overvalue the net speed.... In Italy for instance is bad.

 

[BRiT]

Now we are arguing on Sony's business plan based on Microsoft's rumors?

The rumor also had some PS5 info, so it was a mega rumor.

 

[BRiT]

I also dont get the mixed emotion response to the rumors so far:

2013 a 1.84 TF PS4 released
2016 a 4.2 TF 4Pro released
2019 a 8.x TF PS5 rumored delayed to 2020.

The 2x increase in 3 years (2013 to 2016) is great!

The 2x increase in 3 years (2019 to 2016 but delayed to 2020 for reasons) is "You have to be high if you think that after three years the PS5 ".

Why is one great but the other requires illicit drug use?

 

[Metal_Spirit]

I think an 8 Tf ps5 at end 2019 is not disappointing IMHO... But we know that a ps5pro will come maybe 2023. Maybe same butterfly approach as Ps4pro. Zen2 (16 threads) + 8 TF gpu is quite a lot on a single die. Will be happy if someone tries to give some transistor count numbers. I think also some basic RT tech will be there. With 8 TF 12 Gb Ram will be enough.

Basically ps5 has to play ps4pro games at same resolution (and with the same upscaling tech) but at 60 fps... So doubling the GPU calc power is quite intuitive approach. You need also to double the bandwidth. That also takes a lot of transistors. So totally credible leaks... Imo. Ps5@399 $... Ps4pro(7 nm)@199 $.... Don't understand the 4 tf Xbox. That's seems crazy. They overvalue the net speed.... In Italy for instance is bad.

8 Tflops is not disappointing?
How come? You wanna explain to the common folk how 8 is good for a new gen, when 6 was not good enough to get all current gen games at 4K?
Oh, you will explain it using chequerboard or other tecnique (that other consoles can also use), like in PS4 Pro.
But Pro is not a best seller. It fails redundantly at what it was proposed (4K). Lots of games are still at 1080p (although some due to renderer incompatibility with chequerboard and not lack of power, but the common people only know that they are still 1080p).
Commercially speaking, 8 Tflops would be a disaster. The console would be seen as a improved last gen console, capable of true native 4K, but not a true new gen one.
People still remember Cerny’s words about requiring 8Tflops to bring PS4 games to 4K, so 8 Tflops will give that image. A native 4K PS4, not a new gen.

56 CUs on a navi at 1600 Ghz would bring 11.5 Tflops. That’s considering half the CPU Speed of 3.2Ghz. This is feasible on Navi, and it should be the minimum on a next gen console.

 

[HBRU]

Sony has the need to not leave behind the ps4 & ps4 pro users... so all that is over 8 TF is an overhead.... 720p@30 fps, 1440@30 fps.... And finally 1440@60 fps on ps5... know that this sounds a lot like my old pro2 approach... But yes I give up with Jaguars

 

[Shifty Geezer]

How come? You wanna explain to the common folk how 8 is good for a new gen, when 6 was not good enough to get all current gen games at 4K?

Not saying 8TFs isn't disappointing, but it doesn't need explaining to the common folk. They see 'the most powerful console ever' and what's on screen and if it's worth it to them or not.

I have no idea how many flops the NES or Sega Master System or SNES or Megadrive etc had, and it didn't matter.

If a company manages to make a machine that looks next-gen with only 8 TFlops (let's imagine some non-floppy super awesome raytracing hardware), then 8 TFs is good enough.

 

[msia2k75]

8 Tflops is not disappointing?
How come? You wanna explain to the common folk how 8 is good for a new gen, when 6 was not good enough to get all current gen games at 4K?
Oh, you will explain it using chequerboard or other tecnique (that other consoles can also use), like in PS4 Pro.
But Pro is not a best seller. It fails redundantly at what it was proposed (4K). Lots of games are still at 1080p (although some due to renderer incompatibility with chequerboard and not lack of power, but the common people only know that they are still 1080p).
Commercially speaking, 8 Tflops would be a disaster. The console would be seen as a improved last gen console, capable of true native 4K, but not a true new gen one.
People still remember Cerny’s words about requiring 8Tflops to bring PS4 games to 4K, so 8 Tflops will give that image. A native 4K PS4, not a new gen.

56 CUs on a navi at 1600 Ghz would bring 11.5 Tflops. That’s considering half the CPU Speed of 3.2Ghz. This is feasible on Navi, and it should be the minimum on a next gen console.

Except you won't get a 1.6Ghz running GPU in a console....

 

[HBRU]

I think Sony keeps the eye on substance... That is: (1) convince enthusiasts like me to upgrade with 60fps capable console (and actually so many times I've read also here complaining about 30 fps)...(2) Not destroy the previous installed base... Then with time will se maybe some ps5 only game.

 

[London Geezer]

If a company manages to make a machine that looks next-gen with only 8 TFlops (let's imagine some non-floppy super awesome raytracing hardware), then 8 TFs is good enough.

But doesn't RT benefit from huge shading power due to the fact that off screen objects need to be kept in memory (and shaded) so that rays can reflect them, as an example? As opposed to screen space effects? It follows that more shading power (flops?) would greatly benefit a supposed RT compliant console.

I'm skeptical about RT on consoles this time around, but please correct me if i'm wrong, which is very likely. Hard to keep up with everything that's going on these days.

 

[Metal_Spirit]

Why not? At 16 nm Xbox One X runs at 1.172 Mhz. Won´t a reduction to 7nm allow for 428 Mhz (36%) more. What was announced was the 7nm would allow for 60% gain in Power over 14 nm.

 

[mpg1]

I sorta believe the 8TF for a couple of reasons:

1) That is pretty much what'd you get with 360mm^2 chip and clocks that wouldn't push the need for "fancy" cooling.
2) Cost: Might allow Sony to hit $399 again.
3) Most users have the base consoles. So going to a zen cpu/8TF/16GB GDDR6 machine would feel next gen.
4) Just reading "8TF" by itself doesn't include the architectural bumps that would undoubtedly add to performance as well.

 

[MrFox]

Why not? At 16 nm Xbox One X runs at 1.172 Mhz. Won´t a reduction to 7nm allow for 428 Mhz (36%) more. What was announced was the 7nm would allow for 60% gain in Power over 14 nm.

That's power consumption, vs higher performance. And it's "up to" which is a different result in the real world. If you use the max performance you get no power reduction and vice versa. So a 12TF ends up to be a 350W monster SoC at these high clocks. Fine for a PC card, not for a console. Or they keep lower clock for power efficiency, and pay for it in die area.

But maybe architectural changes can allow higher clocks...

 

[HBRU]

Sony just don't need a too powerful console that depress too much old users... They have this tik-tok approach now. They don't want loose money on hardware too. Probably Ms can risk more on much more powerful hw... Maybe even a 14 TF... A true 4k@60 fps... But at the end of the day that will cost a lot and Ms has probably to gamble by loosing money on hw. Sony will anyway have exclusive games that runs even on cheap used ps4...

 

[vipa899]

2070 performance that some estimated seems not far off, perhaps minus the RT hardware. Would like to see rt like in turing, imagine how the new gran turismo could look like.

MS seems to go big with both HW and software which is a good thing. We also need competition in the console space as sony has become as arrogant as nvidia.

 

[iroboto]

But doesn't RT benefit from huge shading power due to the fact that off screen objects need to be kept in memory (and shaded) so that rays can reflect them, as an example? As opposed to screen space effects? It follows that more shading power (flops?) would greatly benefit a supposed RT compliant console.

I'm skeptical about RT on consoles this time around, but please correct me if i'm wrong, which is very likely. Hard to keep up with everything that's going on these days.

I think from what I understand from some discussions in other threads, it's a programming issue not a shading power issue (at least not yet a shading power issue)

 

[Shifty Geezer]

But doesn't RT benefit from huge shading power due to the fact that off screen objects need to be kept in memory (and shaded) so that rays can reflect them, as an example? As opposed to screen space effects? It follows that more shading power (flops?) would greatly benefit a supposed RT compliant console.

I'm skeptical about RT on consoles this time around, but please correct me if i'm wrong, which is very likely. Hard to keep up with everything that's going on these days.

It was only a hypothetical illustrative example. However, don't underestimate the power of devs to be creative. Caching certain surface properties in certain data structures might alleviate a huge amount of overhead. Shader LOD is also a big option, and secondary shaders can be greatly simplified. The current implementations are very brute-force. RTX seems to lock up the shaders, so conceptually, how about RT hardware that does some very fancy clever, data manipulation, all about data and not crunching numbers, that makes the scene searchable in fabulously efficient ways that runs independently of the shaders? We could get the equivalent of an RTX2080 Ti with less peak flops because they are more efficiently used.

It's nothing others haven't said, really. Working smarter, not harder, we don't know what Future Flops will be capable of. People shouldn't interpret the numbers based on current standards and see an 8 TF PS5 as only 2x a PS4P, or a 4 TF XB2 as less capable than the 6TG XB1X. Or whatever numbers come up.

 

[AlNom]

Will 2020 IQ be acceptable?

 

[vipa899]

If the flops are anywhere near turing flops we can be happy even without rt. Doubt it though as something in consoles would be near ready now somewhere.