Next Generation Hardware Speculation with a Technical Spin [2018]

[iroboto]

Just to echo, generation began in 2013, not 2017. If you want a generational leap from 2017 add 8 years and see if we get there.

PS4 Pro has succeeded on varying degrees in getting developers to adopt multiple forms of reconstruction moving up to 4K with only 2x the power over he base model.

X1X is doing things in native because it can for now. But we should expect more reconstruction over time.

That being said. We could almost get 8x on 2013. And if we stick to 1080p as a baseline resolution it’s certainly possible to get that type of jump. 4K can be covered by a premium model at a later date, or with reconstruction.

As some have pointed out here, there are more things to a generation than just pure graphical performance.

A 6-8 TF 12/16 GB and Ryzen with SSD at $399 designed specifically for users that have no intention of upgrading from 1080p looks desirable as next gen.

 

[BRiT]

It's still puzzling how audio and subtitled seem weirdly packages and limited by region. I generally do not want more than English audio, occasionally Japanese, to be installed but there could be licensing implications.

Microsoft's Intelligent Delivery system allows for only the opted for audio to be downloaded and installed. However, the developers need to properly tag their content chunks and allow the user to select what to install. In the Halo:MCC flighting program to test out the fixes and improvements, this selective installation of audio languages is available.

 

[Deleted member 13524]

Just to echo, generation began in 2013, not 2017. If you want a generational leap from 2017 add 8 years and see if we get there.

PS4 Pro has succeeded on varying degrees in getting developers to adopt multiple forms of reconstruction moving up to 4K with only 2x the power over he base model.

X1X is doing things in native because it can for now. But we should expect more reconstruction over time.

That being said. We could almost get 8x on 2013. And if we stick to 1080p as a baseline resolution it’s certainly possible to get that type of jump. 4K can be covered by a premium model at a later date, or with reconstruction.

As some have pointed out here, there are more things to a generation than just pure graphical performance.

A 6-8 TF 12/16 GB and Ryzen with SSD at $399 designed specifically for users that have no intention of upgrading from 1080p looks desirable as next gen.

You're actually considering that a non-mobile console from Microsoft and/or Sony releasing in 2020-2022 may target 1080p?


The only public reaction people would get from that is fear of the PS5 / XBtwo being less powerful than the PS4 Pro / XBoneX... And the PR nightmare that would certainly follow.

 

[borntosoul]

Not only that but could you imagine current gen mobile phones surpassing current gen consoles in graphic power at one point .
Scary......

To put it another way if they don’t make these consoles powerful enough they may be surpassed by phones before their next refresh comes along.

 

[AlNom]

But you canna change the laws of physics! There are three factors in play : time, price, and power. If you absolutely pick a power level, 8x PS4, and you pick a price of $400, you'll have to wait until the time allows that power at that price point. Which may be 2025. If you pick a release time, 2020, and a price, $400, you'll have to pick power that's available then at that price.

There's no point asking for a 'generational' advance in hardware (8x everything) by 2020 as it's not possible in a consumer-priced product. Especially compared to XB1X which of course is going to limit the gap between this gen and last. For starters XB1X is only experienced by a tiny fraction of current gen gamers. Most are on XB1/PS4 and whatever is a generational advance on them matters.

If instead you're asking for a 'generational advance' and to wait until it can happen, you want to discuss the whens of a launch in another thread. This thread is about the technical possibilities and plausibilities. That is, discuss what's possible in a 2023 console, but don't argue that that's the decision that should be made.

I'm reading everything you post now in Scotty's voice. :V

 

[iroboto]

You're actually considering that a non-mobile console from Microsoft and/or Sony releasing in 2020-2022 may target 1080p?


The only public reaction people would get from that is fear of the PS5 / XBtwo being less powerful than the PS4 Pro / XBoneX... And the PR nightmare that would certainly follow.

They would have to launch a more powerful 4K variant at the same time as well. I don't think the mainstream population has transitioned to 4K yet, even by 2020 I don't see it happening. It doesn't yet make sense to have this generation be 4K only. It's a lot of wasted power for a subset of people that would rather do for cheaper.

 

[Deleted member 13524]

They would have to launch a more powerful 4K variant at the same time as well.

Perhaps this is a separate topic to discuss in a separate thread.
I think entering the market with two SKUs carrying two performance targets at the same time is completely prohibitive from a perspective of having enough titles during the launch window to please customers. Good looking games are harder to make than ever before. Good looking games on brand new hardware are even harder. You're suggesting Sony/Microsoft will be asking devs to make twice as many versions of those good looking games on brand new hardware, on time for launch window.

Honestly, I think the chances for that happening are about as high as @HBRU 's theories of Sony launching a PS4 Pro 2. Which is close to zero IMO.

The mid-gens made sense because they were launched 3-4 years after this gen's original release, and they became available when a denser process allowed for significantly higher performance SoCs at similar price/area/power/heat constraints. That wouldn't be the case with two different SKUs with different performances launching at the same time.

They would have to launch a more powerful 4K variant at the same time as well. I don't think the mainstream population has transitioned to 4K yet, even by 2020 I don't see it happening. It doesn't yet make sense to have this generation be 4K only.

What do you mean by mainstream population?
Obviously not everyone with a 1080p TV threw it in the garbage and rushed out the door to purchase a 4K TV, but it seems 4K's adoption rate is incredibly faster than it was for HDTV and about 1/3rd of the consumers worldwide are buying 4K sets. This is worldwide, meaning 1st-world countries are probably getting significantly larger proportions.
At an increase of about 10% per year and starting at 30% in Q1 2018, we're looking at 50% in Q1 2020 and 70% in Q1 2022 (at which point we'll probably start to see relevant shares of 8K TVs).

Next-gen consoles may not target 4K internal resolution as minimum (neither did the 2013 consoles), but they definitely have to target 4K TVs.
Sony and Microsoft definitely aren't releasing brand new consoles just for the late 4K TV adopters. Out of those late 4K TV adopters, very few may be early videogame console adopters.

 

[vipa899]

Dont either think two ps5's at the same time seems logical, and not needed as whatever ps5 hw will be, it will be able to produce great enough graphics that people see a clear difference. Sony aint stupid

 

[iroboto]

Perhaps this is a separate topic to discuss in a separate thread.

Agreed, we're teetering on a split here, going to try to keep it specific to the target at hand.

I think entering the market with two SKUs carrying two performance targets at the same time is completely prohibitive from a perspective of having enough titles during the launch window to please customers. Good looking games are harder to make than ever before. Good looking games on brand new hardware are even harder. You're suggesting Sony/Microsoft will be asking devs to make twice as many versions of those good looking games on brand new hardware, on time for launch window.

They do that today however, same SoC just a larger GPU. PS4 -> 4Pro must be an easier lift than X1 -> 1X given the differences in memory structure.
And as long as their isn't a switch in technologies, the engines should be able to scale up and down as required as we see today with most games.

Next-gen consoles may not target 4K internal resolution as minimum (neither did the 2013 consoles), but they definitely have to target 4K TVs.

Agreed, so that wouldn't change as it is today, both PS4 and 1S support 4K sets, but internal rendering resolution is closer to 1080p for the most part. I'm suggesting a next gen machine where the baseline console performance of 6-8TF can have any resolution it wants. But to have a 4K variant of that (where you expect to see the same image quality) you're going to need something higher released at the same time.

What do you mean by mainstream population?
Obviously not everyone with a 1080p TV threw it in the garbage and rushed out the door to purchase a 4K TV, but it seems 4K's adoption rate is incredibly faster than it was for HDTV and about 1/3rd of the consumers worldwide are buying 4K sets. This is worldwide, meaning 1st-world countries are probably getting significantly larger proportions.
At an increase of about 10% per year and starting at 30% in Q1 2018, we're looking at 50% in Q1 2020 and 70% in Q1 2022 (at which point we'll probably start to see relevant shares of 8K TVs).

There's good data here that would have me change my mind on my thoughts on how next gen will play out.

But I'm left to wonder if they would just release a 12-14TF device and leave internal rendering resolution entirely up to developers and just not care what they render at. I guess there are a lot of factors here to consider.

Part of my thoughts here are trying to line up with Phils' commentary on XBox Consoles during E3.

 

[goonergaz]

I would have thought games would start out 4k native where possible with checkerboarding as per PS4 pro as the consoles get a bit long in the tooth. Or am I oversimplifying?

I also think 2 consoles day one for either would be a bad idea, especially for MS who already have X. I'm still in the camp of a similar scenario to this gen with a 'similar' update after ~3 years.

 

[Deleted member 13524]

They do that today however, same SoC just a larger GPU. PS4 -> 4Pro must be an easier lift than X1 -> 1X given the differences in memory structure.
And as long as their isn't a switch in technologies, the engines should be able to scale up and down as required as we see today with most games.

They're doing that today because 2013's hardware is a known variable to devs.
I don't think they would have done that back in 2013 when facing a release window lineup that inevitably carries a lot of inertia, which is what you're suggesting for 2020/2021.

 

[iroboto]

They're doing that today because 2013's hardware is a known variable to devs.
I don't think they would have done that back in 2013 when facing a release window lineup that inevitably carries a lot of inertia, which is what you're suggesting for 2020/2021.

Well to be fair this coming gen will be the first generation ever where the base technology is exactly the same as last gen.

I don't necessarily see where things are an issue here. If the console is backwards compatible, which is the more challenging item, then having the same SoC but having a larger GPU and resources shouldn't alter the trajectory of the code unless you're releasing 2 drastically different hardware architectures.

I don't know, but it seems like you have major concerns around this point, is there something I'm missing/making light of assumption?

My thoughts:
They're going into next gen having learned a ton about 4K already with Mid gen. With the experience of shipped code on checkerboard techniques, with Pro checkerboard optimizations, with rapid packed math optimizations. They have a few years with the SDK to ramp up, with ISA largely similar to what they are working with currently, largely similar to PC.
AMD is still the manufacturer (that we know of), x86 will still be there, and the CPU shouldn't change between devices;

what pitfall will it be to support a high and low powered variant from launch?

 

[shiznit]

what pitfall will it be to support a high and low powered variant from launch?

While I'd love to this, I don't think it's likely. Separate supply chains and manufacturing lines will harm the already thin margins. Maybe you could offer a variant with identical hardware that tested OK for higher frequencies or didn't need GPU components disabled.

I'm fairly convinced that people who don't play PC games and have been mostly stuck in 30fps land just don't know what they are missing. I also think once they are given solid 60fps modes, the marketing appeal of 4K will diminish. Fortnite is showing many people that dynamic resolutions and reconstruction artifacts are a good tradeoff for 60fps.

With that said, my prediction for a 150-175W profile is 10TF GPU, 4-6 Zen 2 cores, 12-16GB GDDR6, and fixed NAND layer. No need for SSD bulk storage, those who want it can replace the stock spindle.

 

[iroboto]

I'll need to consider more about the costs of 2 SKUs. You are correct that it would be more expensive and risky to launch with 2 SKUs than it would be to have a single SKU. So much so that I need to rethink this.

the marketing appeal of 4K will diminish

The power of market compels the people. I'm not sure it will ever diminish, looking at this thread here of a really set of old games now being bumped to 4K. That's quite a bit of enthusiasm for not much more than just 16x more pixels. And I think possibly HDR. 4K + HDR + high levels of AF tends to really bring image clarity to life even for those older titles, to be able to see the texture work from far away is what most people aren't used to.

https://www.resetera.com/threads/couple-of-screenshots-of-halo-mcc-with-the-4k-update.53096/

4K definitely needs to be part of marketing next gen.

 

[mrcorbo]

Dont either think two ps5's at the same time seems logical, and not needed as whatever ps5 hw will be, it will be able to produce great enough graphics that people see a clear difference. Sony aint stupid

All the console manufacturers have shown the capacity to be "stupid" from time to time and about some pretty critical things.

 

[mrcorbo]

Ultimately, when designing console hardware the component choices are gated by cost, thermals/power, and the effect on the resulting physical design (size, noise-levels, etc). The final design is going to be made up from the components that the platform creator has determined will deliver the best overall performance while fitting within those various "budgets". If you're going to try to make a reasonable guess as to what the the hardware specs of the next-gen consoles are going to be you should start with those restrictions and then make reasonable guesses as to what will fit under them within the expected time frame. And when making these predictions in a thread in the tech forum, you should be prepared to defend your predictions within that context.

 

[shiznit]

I'll need to consider more about the costs of 2 SKUs. You are correct that it would be more expensive and risky to launch with 2 SKUs than it would be to have a single SKU. So much so that I need to rethink this.


The power of market compels the people. I'm not sure it will ever diminish, looking at this thread here of a really set of old games now being bumped to 4K. That's quite a bit of enthusiasm for not much more than just 16x more pixels. And I think possibly HDR. 4K + HDR + high levels of AF tends to really bring image clarity to life even for those older titles, to be able to see the texture work from far away is what most people aren't used to.

https://www.resetera.com/threads/couple-of-screenshots-of-halo-mcc-with-the-4k-update.53096/

4K definitely needs to be part of marketing next gen.

I certainly hope that the appeal of targeting 4K over 60fps will diminish. I have a 4K OLED and I'd still be much happier with dynamic resolution and reconstruction targeting 60fps. I feel the public would mostly agree if given a choice. Since the GPU-CPU balance will likely improve next-gen (at least on the MS side), I'm optimistic we'll see many more games going in this direction. That's why I predict 10TF GPU on the high side at the $400-500 price point. ~200mm^2 of GPU budget with cheap cooling can only go so far.

 

[TheChosenOne]

My guess for next generation is 6-8x more performance than base PS4 and developers choose which resolutions to target, from upscaled 1440p to full 2160p to dynamic (faux) 4k with reconstruction techniques. If a 1080p screen is detected, then super-sample down to match resolution like PS4Pro and XboxOneX currently do.

I imagine Microsoft will aim for at least twice the X1X GPU power.

Next Generation Xbox
Late 2020 Launch
12 TF GPU (FP32)
8 core Zen based CPU @ 2.5Ghz+
24GB RAM/VRAM total
1 TB SSHD
$500

Next Generation PlayStation
Late 2021 Launch
12-14 TF Navi-based GPU (FP32)
8 core Zen2-based CPU @ 2.5Ghz+
32GB RAM/VRAM total
1 TB SSHD
$400

 

[iroboto]

My guess for next generation is 6-8x more performance than base PS4 and developers choose which resolutions to target, from 1440p to full 2160p to dynamic (faux) 4k with reconstruction techniques. If a 1080p screen is detected, then super-sample down to match resolution like PS4Pro and XboxOneX currently do.

I imagine Microsoft will aim for at least twice the X1X GPU power.

Next Generation Xbox
Late 2020 Launch
12 TF GPU (FP32)
8 core Zen based CPU @ 2.5Ghz+
24GB RAM/VRAM total
1 TB SSHD
$500

Next Generation PlayStation
Late 2021 Launch
12-14 TF Navi-based GPU (FP32)
8 core Zen2-based CPU @ 2.5Ghz+
32GB RAM/VRAM total
1 TB SSHD
$400

These price points don’t seem realistic. Especially the -100 on Sony’s machine despite having significantly more hardware.

 

[TheChosenOne]

These price points don’t seem realistic. Especially the -100 on Sony’s machine despite having significantly more hardware.

Possibly. XboxOne launched for $499 (w/ kinect and less powerful hardware) while PS4 launched same month at $399. If next Xbox does launch a year earlier, they'd have opportunity to drop price to match PS5 launch price. Could be overestimating PS5 RAM though (or both! ).