Next Generation Hardware Speculation with a Technical Spin [2018]

Discussion in 'Console Technology' started by Tkumpathenurpahl, Jan 19, 2018.

Tags:
Thread Status:
Not open for further replies.
  1. Xbat

    Veteran Newcomer

    Joined:
    Jan 31, 2013
    Messages:
    1,641
    Likes Received:
    1,311
    Location:
    A farm in the middle of nowhere
    Yes, there are some that want the Xbox X to kind of be a next gen base system
     
  2. anexanhume

    Veteran Regular

    Joined:
    Dec 5, 2011
    Messages:
    2,078
    Likes Received:
    1,535
    It should be a standard to shoot for, IMO. They could update the APU, change the RAM to GDDR6, maybe make SSD standard or as cache, and not change another thing and it’d be a great next gen console.
     
  3. iroboto

    iroboto Daft Funk
    Legend Regular Subscriber

    Joined:
    Mar 6, 2014
    Messages:
    13,500
    Likes Received:
    16,528
    Location:
    The North
    I don’t think there are many that want it to be. Most people are just unsure, no one would know or understand what this is, it’s a rather big unknown. So any hope for it being a next gen device is mainly going by dreams of interpretation. However, I believe that there is definitely a greater than 0 chance that it could be, so I wouldn’t rule it out. At the same time it’s going to be slim chance.

    I don’t see CPU being this almighty factor. There are ways to reduce CPU load and the Xbox contains be technology to do it, in fact they doubled down on it for X1X. And it’s still as we understand not used.

    There are a lot of platform announcements on Xbox’s side that is largely undefined in terms of direction. Looking at mouse and keyboard support, 120FPS Support, freesync Support. These are things that from our understanding would be useless features on an Xbox. Yet they continue to roll out.

    These features and customizations costs money. They aren’t free. So. One has to imagine that in the near future we should expect more announcements on how they would be used.
     
  4. Xbat

    Veteran Newcomer

    Joined:
    Jan 31, 2013
    Messages:
    1,641
    Likes Received:
    1,311
    Location:
    A farm in the middle of nowhere
    I'm a big believer that the next gen core gameplay won't be possible on current gen CPUs especially first party software.
     
    Wynix, Lalaland and chris1515 like this.
  5. chris1515

    Legend Regular

    Joined:
    Jul 24, 2005
    Messages:
    6,592
    Likes Received:
    7,105
    Location:
    Barcelona Spain
    CPU and memory size will be the problem for current gen when publisher will decide to go next gen only.
     
  6. BRiT

    BRiT (>• •)>⌐■-■ (⌐■-■)
    Moderator Legend Alpha

    Joined:
    Feb 7, 2002
    Messages:
    19,105
    Likes Received:
    21,726
    And to come full circle, that all depends on the CPU and memory pool size next-gen has. I don't think we'll be seeing more than 16GB for next-gen if it launches before 2021. Assuming next-gen OS reserves are the same as current-gen OS reserves, there are always ways of fitting 13 GBs of video assets on next-gen into 9GBs of video assets on current-gen, looking at the Xbox One X console.
     
  7. Tkumpathenurpahl

    Tkumpathenurpahl Oil Monsieur Geezer
    Veteran Newcomer

    Joined:
    Apr 3, 2016
    Messages:
    1,883
    Likes Received:
    1,897
    If the Switch can run an XBoxOne game, the X1X can run a PS5 game.

    Here's how I see the platforms going:
    PS5/XBoxTwo - 4K60fps
    PS4Pro/X1X - 1440p/1800p respectively, with unlocked framerates or a solid 30fps.
    PS4/XBoxOne - 1080p/720p respectively, with slightly unstable framerates.

    PS4 and XBoxOne are a 100million plus audience already, and their successors will be backwards compatible, so publishers/developers may as well target the largest audience, safe in the knowledge that they don't need to deliver cutting edge visuals on the base consoles.

    So no, I don't see the X1X being the new baseline. I see it holding its own for a year or two into the PS5's life though.
     
  8. Shifty Geezer

    Shifty Geezer uber-Troll!
    Moderator Legend

    Joined:
    Dec 7, 2004
    Messages:
    43,576
    Likes Received:
    16,033
    Location:
    Under my bridge
    If that's true, next-gen will probably be the slowest selling generation ever.
     
    Jay and Lalaland like this.
  9. Lalaland

    Regular

    Joined:
    Feb 24, 2013
    Messages:
    864
    Likes Received:
    693
    Doom Switch is a significantly different product from Doom PS4/XB1, it's incredibly impressive but it was not an exercise in loading a different Config.INI for the target platform so it's not a good comparison point for cross gen compatibility.

    The half step consoles represent a business strategy to garner additional margin (PS4 Pro) and stop the bleeding (X1X) IMO which is why both companies have adopted a forward and backward compatible software model. There was no gain for Sony or MS in hacking off existing consumers who had only a few years of software on their platform and with a decent run rate on the existing boxes why stop the cash flow?

    The next gen will be a whole different kettle of fish, backwards comparability would seem a given but both Sony and MS will have eaten a lot of R&D costs that will mandate a strong push to make consumers adopt the new platforms so I would be shocked if they allowed the current and half step consoles forward compatibility with software for PS5/XB2. I mean look at a lot of "Enhanced for Pro" titles today, they're barely any damn different, if Sony or MS and came to me and said "hey spend another €400 to watch devs aim for the lowest common denominator again" my wallet will stay in my pocket.

    I've been sceptical of the Ryzen cores coming to console just because the current Pro die is 15% CPU + Cache at 348mm2 but the Ryzen APU is 210mm2 with a too-weak-for-console GPU and the Ryzen CPU is 190mm2 (all numbers courtesy of Wikipedia). Neither of these seems economical when paired with a decent sized GPU at 12nm and it would seem unlikely Sony or MS would pay for premium fabs at the 7mm node over the next 2 years. I missed the discussion in here when these rumours were hot and my search-fu is failing me so if anyone could point me to where the economics of such a honking great die was discussed in the thread I'd appreciate it.

    The rumours appear to point to a 4 core design which would presumably mean 3-3.5 cores available to devs, how likely is this to disrupt backwards compatibility? Is Ryzen simply so much more powerful than Jaguar that 6.5 threads could be crunched into 3.5 cores with little impact?
     
    #1429 Lalaland, Jun 2, 2018
    Last edited: Jun 2, 2018
    BRiT likes this.
  10. Jay

    Jay
    Veteran Regular

    Joined:
    Aug 3, 2013
    Messages:
    3,630
    Likes Received:
    2,955
    The way that could work is "it's about the ecosystems" not the console. So it would be about overall sales of ps4 and ps5.
    I'm not sure if Sony wouldn't just prefer to move people onto ps5 though.

    But, yea I could see it making sales lot slower after initial core sales
     
  11. Tkumpathenurpahl

    Tkumpathenurpahl Oil Monsieur Geezer
    Veteran Newcomer

    Joined:
    Apr 3, 2016
    Messages:
    1,883
    Likes Received:
    1,897
    I don't doubt that there'll be plenty of games exclusive to the next generation, but the usual multiplatform suspects will, I think, release across platforms within the same ecosystem, given the similarities in hardware.
     
  12. iroboto

    iroboto Daft Funk
    Legend Regular Subscriber

    Joined:
    Mar 6, 2014
    Messages:
    13,500
    Likes Received:
    16,528
    Location:
    The North
    Or this gen will be the longest gen ever :)
     
    BRiT likes this.
  13. BRiT

    BRiT (>• •)>⌐■-■ (⌐■-■)
    Moderator Legend Alpha

    Joined:
    Feb 7, 2002
    Messages:
    19,105
    Likes Received:
    21,726
    I'm fine with that considering how well the One X performs and how large of a backlog from the Original Xbox and X360 I still have. :lol:
     
    milk, iroboto and DSoup like this.
  14. anexanhume

    Veteran Regular

    Joined:
    Dec 5, 2011
    Messages:
    2,078
    Likes Received:
    1,535

    A Ryzen CCX is 44mm^2. A console APU doesn’t need all the I/O circuitry of a full Zeppelin die, and unless Zen 2 is a lot bigger, we can expect a CCX to shrink.


    AMD doesn’t have any GPU designs on 12nm. Why would Sony or MS pay to have a design on a node they wouldn’t otherwise use when they can just leverage their existing 7nm work? 28nm and 16FF were adopted within a year of HVM, and 7nm will go live later this year/ early next year, so it matches previous timelines in that respect.



    Which rumors? All the rumors about architecture thus far are suppositions and best guesses. The rumors based on factual knowledge tell us Sony is working with Zen, but nothing more than that.
     
  15. dobwal

    Legend Veteran

    Joined:
    Oct 26, 2005
    Messages:
    5,731
    Likes Received:
    1,995
    If I’m not mistaken that’s a 32 core cpu comprised of 4 separate dies glued together by infinity fabric. Of course adding another die would complicate the design.

    But each of these dies’ internal fabric is at least designed to handle the data sharing of the two internal CCXs as well as the six external CCXs. So why would adding an extra internal CCX would be all that complicated when infinity fabric is designed to be scalable and AMD already has implementations that go well beyond just having 3 CCXs linked together by infinity fabric?
     
    #1435 dobwal, Jun 3, 2018
    Last edited: Jun 3, 2018
  16. vipa899

    Regular Newcomer

    Joined:
    Mar 31, 2017
    Messages:
    922
    Likes Received:
    354
    Location:
    Sweden
    How much of 8gb gddr5 of ps4 is typically used as vram in a high end game like horizon zero dawn? If they get away with very little 'main ram' those consoles dont need that much ram in total.
     
  17. Lalaland

    Regular

    Joined:
    Feb 24, 2013
    Messages:
    864
    Likes Received:
    693
    Thanks for the numbers on the CCX core as it helps make Ryzen seem more practical to me. Based on the wiki approximations the cores on the Pro take up ~55mm2 all up (based on 15% of 348mm2) at 16nm so 44mm2 at 12nm is practically a flat use of area for 4 Ryzen cores.

    Consoles use trailing fab tech because they're significantly cheaper ditto for GPUs, 12nm and 10nm is for the mobile phone and PC CPU crowd. Intel's 7nm process is in deep trouble and TSMC has launched a confusingly named 7+ tech this year with HVM on 7nm EUV next year. Note Intel has been claiming volume next year for the past 2 years and TSMC has been playing cute with nm definitions for a while. Now if the launch window is next year then I can see a 12nm APU for the next gen but I would be very surprised to see a 10nm or better node used for volume console production in 2019.



    The Semi Accurate rumours, Charlie and crew are pretty well got in Taiwan and have broken a lot of news before. I say 4 core as the idea of 8 SMT cores for a 16 thread design seems utter madness to me. The CCX numbers you have seem like a nice fit for a proportionally consistent next gen APU design as the GPU portion will need a hell of a lot more ALU and raster engines to deliver a true 4K30 experience. 4K60 will be restricted to a few downloadable arcade games the way 1080p60 was at the start of the HD era.
     
  18. Wynix

    Veteran Regular

    Joined:
    Feb 23, 2013
    Messages:
    1,052
    Likes Received:
    57
    7nm tsmc will be shipping silicon this year, assuming a 2020 console launch year, 7nm zen and 7nm GPU is basically locked in.
    I expect PS5 launch price to be $449 to help compensate for the increased costs.
     
    McHuj likes this.
  19. Lalaland

    Regular

    Joined:
    Feb 24, 2013
    Messages:
    864
    Likes Received:
    693
    It would still be a pretty aggressive adoption time line, PS4 launched on the 28nm node in 2014 despite TSMC entering production in late 2011. Not impossible for a 2020 launch though it all depends on what the yields are and whether Sony/MS is willing to forgo the maturity (and presumably higher yield) of a Ryzen design on the 12nm node given the pain 7nm seems to be inflicting on yields thus far.
     
  20. anexanhume

    Veteran Regular

    Joined:
    Dec 5, 2011
    Messages:
    2,078
    Likes Received:
    1,535
    TSMC announced HVM in December 2011. No products actually hit the market until 2012. PS4 launched in 2013, and was in volume production mid 2013.

    TSMC announced HVM last month (and products will hit in Fall). That’s two years of runway for a Fall 2020 launch, and there will be all manner of consumer products, including GPUs from AMD and Nvidia, by then.

    Charlie said PS5 was launching 2018, and he put that garbage rumor behind a paywall.
     
    #1440 anexanhume, Jun 3, 2018
    Last edited: Jun 3, 2018
    Lalaland and DuckThor Evil like this.
Loading...
Thread Status:
Not open for further replies.

Share This Page

  • About Us

    Beyond3D has been around for over a decade and prides itself on being the best place on the web for in-depth, technically-driven discussion and analysis of 3D graphics hardware. If you love pixels and transistors, you've come to the right place!

    Beyond3D is proudly published by GPU Tools Ltd.
Loading...