Next Generation Hardware Speculation with a Technical Spin [2018]

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Not going to happen. The savings would be wiped out by the warranty replacements and negative PR. The only reason for RRoD/YLoD was a transition to new materials engineers hadn't learnt to design for. It's a known quantity now and failure rates won't be any worse than any other normal console.

Yup. Failure rates are way down for PS4 and XB1 compared to last gen. The original Xbox was rated at 100W, PS2 much less. Then they went and designed 200W monsters without stepping up the cooling and thermal accommodations. They fixed that by going overkill on the XB1.
 
Did you not know that was the tdp for launch 360 and PS3?

Consoles are cheap boxes with cheap materials and Sony and Ms aren't going to spend more to properly cool such devices over a good period of time

Sony in particular NEVER goes above the bare minimum. Every time they die shrink they also put a much shittier fan in. Just look at the pathetic PS3 super slim.

The 360 slim at least had decent cooling and Xbox one cooling was overkill. All PS4 models? Bare minimum. You want 200 watt consoles and you'll get serious hardware failures like 7th gens launch.

It won't happen, anyway.
 
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Not going to happen. The savings would be wiped out by the warranty replacements and negative PR. The only reason for RRoD/YLoD was a transition to new materials engineers hadn't learnt to design for. It's a known quantity now and failure rates won't be any worse than any other normal console.
The switch from lead solder was a factor, but they also just plain crammed too much into small boxes and had pretty simple cooling. Which would still happen today if they made 200 watt consoles.
 
I was understanding the idea being XB1X getting ports when no other current-gen consoles would as a suggested possibility. Otherwise why did Xbat single out XB1X as he did?

I would just figure they all get ports because combined they are a huge market. Also we don't know when we are getting new systems or what the xbox one x install base will be. The system itself could just find itself at the $200 or $300 mark while the new system is at the $500 mark
 
Did you not know that was the tdp for launch 360 and PS3?

Consoles are cheap boxes with cheap materials and Sony and Ms aren't going to spend more to properly cool such devices over a good period of time
PS3 was anything but cheap.
Sony in particular NEVER goes above the bare minimum.
Of course you don't. But you don't skimp on materials if it'll cost more in the long run due to system failures and warranties.

You want 200 watt consoles and you'll get serious hardware failures like 7th gens launch.
You're saying these companies would wilfully waste money on warranties and bad PR?? RROD == $1 billion. You reckon Sony/MS would choose to save $10 per console for cheap ass components and accrue a billion in costs?

That's utterly illogical, irrational, and assumes the engineers at these companies are morons and/or the executives making the decisions can't comprehend basic business economics.
 
Yup. Failure rates are way down for PS4 and XB1 compared to last gen. The original Xbox was rated at 100W, PS2 much less. Then they went and designed 200W monsters without stepping up the cooling and thermal accommodations. They fixed that by going overkill on the XB1.

The overkill on cooling didn't fix the issue for the X360, those machines still suffered from RROD it just took a little longer for it to crop up. Engineers getting a handle on lead free solder is what eventually got rid of the problem for the most part.

Similar to how PS3 fat suffered from the same issue, but took longer to get to the point of failure. Most machines failing out of warranty if they were going to fail.

Regards,
SB
 
The overkill on cooling didn't fix the issue for the X360, those machines still suffered from RROD it just took a little longer for it to crop up. Engineers getting a handle on lead free solder is what eventually got rid of the problem for the most part.

Similar to how PS3 fat suffered from the same issue, but took longer to get to the point of failure. Most machines failing out of warranty if they were going to fail.

Regards,
SB

Soldier plays a part, but board warpage is the aggravating factor that stresses the solder joints to begin with. Excess deflection due to inadequate heatsink coupled with CTE mismatch.
 
Soldier plays a part, but board warpage is the aggravating factor that stresses the solder joints to begin with. Excess deflection due to inadequate heatsink coupled with CTE mismatch.

Yes, but that warpage was all within tolerance for leaded solder. The problem was that lead free solder is less malleable and thus more susceptible to damage from flexing of the circuit board/mount points. Had the X360 been using leaded solder, there likely would have been almost no issues with RROD beyond those expected from typical manufacturing yield defects.

There were lots of contributing factors for why the solder failed on X360 and over a longer period of time the PS3. But in virtually all cases, had leaded solder been used, those failures would not have occurred.

X360 and PS3 weren't the only devices to suffer. Mice, for example, of that era also had significantly more problems due the to change in solder as well due to the stress put on the solder points for the USB connections.

Most industries didn't have a very good grasp on exactly what the change from leaded to lead free solder would entail. Some assumed that just better cooling would be enough, but that wasn't the case.

Regards,
SB
 
Yes, but that warpage was all within tolerance for leaded solder. The problem was that lead free solder is less malleable and thus more susceptible to damage from flexing of the circuit board/mount points. Had the X360 been using leaded solder, there likely would have been almost no issues with RROD beyond those expected from typical manufacturing yield defects.

There were lots of contributing factors for why the solder failed on X360 and over a longer period of time the PS3. But in virtually all cases, had leaded solder been used, those failures would not have occurred.

X360 and PS3 weren't the only devices to suffer. Mice, for example, of that era also had significantly more problems due the to change in solder as well due to the stress put on the solder points for the USB connections.

Most industries didn't have a very good grasp on exactly what the change from leaded to lead free solder would entail. Some assumed that just better cooling would be enough, but that wasn't the case.

Regards,
SB

I think it’s an oversimplification to say that was the entire cause. The PS3 dissipated more power, yet YLOD was far less common than RROD (which may have been 25 to 33% for OG Xbox 360). That does not seem like a single contributing factor, and I suspect there would have been failure even had a different solder type been used. The deflection was certainly more extreme in the 360 due to the rigging of its clamp design.
 
@ shifty

PS3 wasn't cheap but its laptop style cooling was relative to its power envelope.

Yes, I live in the real world where greed and incompetence are frequent. Yes they would save some pennies without forward thinking. If not the engineers, perhaps management would demand it

Forget rrod, Ms saved literally 25 cents on 360s disc drive and we got round scratches on our discs.
 
Yes, I live in the real world where greed and incompetence are frequent.
Where does greed fit in with knowingly designing a system that'll lose you a billion bucks?

Forget rrod, Ms saved literally 25 cents on 360s disc drive and we got round scratches on our discs.
Does scratches on discs cost MS anything in warranty repairs? No. Hence why they'd do it. You penny pinch everywhere you can where you can. Like cutting excess weight off a racing car, you do it without compromising the structural integrity otherwise the thing breaks and you're out of the race. The whole purpose of penny pinching and cheap solutions is to save money and increase profits, and doing that to excess where your system no longer works costs money. So no, RROD it isn't going to happen again. A 200W console will sound like a leaf-blower before it'll overheat and need replacing.
 
Greedy people are rarely thoughtful. This isn't rocket science bud. Not saying it would certainly happen, at least to the extent of PS3/360. But there's a high chance.

Fools speculate in certainty.

And also, Ms did get hit with a class action over the disc thing.

Again I'd be shocked if we do get 200 watt boxes again though.
 
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Greedy people are rarely thoughtful. This isn't rocket science bud. Not saying it would certainly happen, at least to the extent of PS3/360.
Except you have said that.
You want 200 watt consoles and you'll get serious hardware failures like 7th gens launch.

And also, Ms did get hit with a class action over the disc thing.
It went nowhere.
https://betanews.com/2017/06/13/microsoft-scratched-xbox-360-games/

They didn't lose money and saved 25 cents per console, going by your numbers. 25 cents times 80 million units was $20 million saved. That was good economy. Saving $10 on a cooling solution to have $1 billion in failed units to deal with isn't.

Another good example of penny pinching is the thermal paste used between chips and heat spreaders. It was low grade in PS3 and deteriorated over time, meaning your console ran hotter over time and was at higher chance of failure. That'd mean potentially a dead console and new sale, so it's worth it to Sony. Using more expensive thermal paste would provide the customer a better experience but cost the console company more money, so why bother?

Again I'd be shocked if we do get 200 watt boxes again though.
There are reasons not to have 200 watt consoles. Widespread system failure and a PR nightmare like RROD isn't one of them. The engineers were shocked and confused as to why it happened. You don't knowingly release a product where a third of your first years sales are going to need replacements. No-one does that. Companies have been known to consider if the cost of a recall is more than the cost of getting sued if something goes wrong, and pick the cheaper option! 360 happened because they didn't know it would. With that experience in hand, another console couldn't suffer the same overheating issues unless the engineers are incompetent.
 
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Aside from the switch to lead free, surely one of the cooling complexities with ps360 was having a seperate gpu and CPU. It's extremely unlikely that nextgen will be two chips. I'd have thought that the blower designs current consoles could scale quite nicely, even if not to 200w.
 
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