Mid generation refreshes were for a reason right? If the generation was only for 6 years, neither company would have bothered.
Next Generation Hardware Speculation with a Technical Spin [2018]
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phoenix_chipset
Regular
Agreed which is why I always thought it should be 2021 minimum for ps5 after the pro launched. Hell, they have reason to stick it out even longer than 360 thanks to these refreshes.
This way we can get our 32gbs memory and ssds haha.
7nm will require multi-patterning for the first 1-2 years of mass production and won't be cheap enough for low margin products like consoles. It seems Sony are waiting for EUV mass production, with the added benefit of allowing for RAM prices to settle. 2021 makes sense if Sony want to come out of the gate with decent margins. On the bright side, NAND prices are finally coming down. Things are looking good for a built-in cache layer.
anexanhume
Veteran
7nm+ wouldn’t help them on the cost front. You don’t launch a console when costs drop on components - you plan for that component cost drop in your business planning. Market and competition are the forcing functions. Also, the fiscal profit drop points to a 2019 or 2020 launch. It does not support a 2021 launch theory.
https://www.eetimes.com/document.asp?doc_id=1332860
The margins on the hardware is peanuts compared to the network, I believe the razor and blades business model is perfect in this day and age. In fact I would think they wouldn't mind a big loss the first year if it could guarantee network growth.
2019 FTW
Niebotskick
Newcomer
I'll give Sony a call to delay the PS5 by 4 years then...
Metal_Spirit
Regular
Yes... to offer Higher resolutions to those who wanted them!
They launched um 2016, 3 years after the first console. Mid gen in 2016 theoreticaly means new gen in 2019/2020!
According to a report from efficientgaming.eu, all new tech available in 2020 will be available also in the end of 2019, its up to sony to measure the best release date. I would not be surprised it sony took some loss on each console and launched in 2019, entering profit by end 2020. It would gain time over the competition and it would launch on the Playstation 25th aniversary!
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Deleted member 13524
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I don't get it.
I read countless articles claiming EUV won't be good for maximum attainable performance but will be great for price-per-mm^2 because of higher yields and reducing the number of patterning cycles.
Now there are articles claiming it's not good for either.
What is it good for, if not for price or performance? It just doesn't make sense anymore.
anexanhume
Veteran
The quote directly says the cost savings aren’t immediate, but still it’s still anticipated. I don’t see any reason to panic or think things have changed.
D
Deleted member 11852
Guest
It sounds a bit like war.
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Deleted member 13524
Guest
Then what you're saying is 7nm+ (aka 7nm EUV) is bringing cost savings after all.
anexanhume
Veteran
FTA:
EUV provides a tremendous reduction in cycle time and edge placement errors … but not much cost reduction, at least initially. There are so many other benefits that even if the cost is neutral, it still makes sense.
My thoughts:
Perhaps it's that straight forward. But it's hard to believe any business decision would be. I know this is a technical forum, so most of the discussion is around the technology, and we're biased to look at those data points as being _very important_, but I could never imagine going to present to a CEO with a slide deck that had:
Launch PS5 in 2019
* Launch at a loss in 2019
* Gain over competition, they can't launch because they just did in 2017!
* Playstation 25 anniversary
* 7nm could be ready at the price point we want!
* We'll have more power!
And feel confident that it would be approved, just after they approved a 4Pro and PSVR launch. These products have a lot of stuff going on with them, it's more than just the hardware of the console, it's always been more than just the games. We can look back to PS3/360 days, and see that
* Cell was something they wanted to be successful, open up some plays as selling cell in other industries
* Blu Ray adoption
Xbox 360
* Windows
* Cloud/Online subscription services
* Double down to block the living room space from entering the PC space (see above)
* Reducing piracy for Windows developers, advancing their own narrative for DirectX, having a positive MS brand with younger audiences
When we look at Xbox 360 launch, they had a lot of different SKUs, some without hard drives, some with hard drives, etc. It was a mess and in the end because they were so desperate to drop the barrier to entry price, they ended up losing the standard base level console with a hard drive (which would have dramatically altered the long term outlook for their console -- all because they wanted to beat PS3 out the door by a year).
We can do the same with Wii. Xbox One (TV, more piracy control, more cloud, more digital content to be sold).
It's never been just about the hardware, there's always been this other factors included.
When we talk about nodes, 2012 was when 28nm was ready, and that was with Moore's Law. You could have launched day 1 cheaper and more powerful over the previous node. But they didn't, they still waited over a year. Bandwidth was likely the hold up here on the hardware front, it cost too much to get enough memory in there to support the chip they wanted. MS moved to implement their DDR3+eSRAM and PS4 went a flexible 4GB + camera, which was tossed in favour for 8GB. So price is clearly a factor. But you'd be wrong to think that was all there is to the story there. What about the OS, what about the content, the TV and all these other items they wanted. Sony and MS aren't a pure game company like Nintendo is, they have goals. We see them play out in their consoles.
The traditional battleground of hardware and games has changed, strategies have changed. Profits is about subscribers, not the hardware. Licensing while great still isn't as profitable as desirable as consistent locked in income. One should ask the question of why executives gave the green light for both 4Pro and X1X. What value do they bring to the overall strategy. And what is the long term strategy for both companies now?
So 4Pro -> VR. I can see this, it's their play to get and own the VR market. But VR industry is taking a lot of time to mature and grow, it's definitely not meeting expectation. If VR is a big part of PS5, you need to delay and let the PS4 family continue to drive adoption here, learn more about the market, learn what's wrong with VR, PS5 certainly isn't going to change anything just because you offer better graphics in VR, developers need time to build great game ideas. Sony needs to use this time with PS4 family to figure out what changes need to be done to VR to make it the next platform for gaming.
What other long term strategies does Sony have for PS5? Perhaps it's just as simple as VR. But we know they are now focusing on subscribers; what do they need in PS5 to drive subscriptions? Which really, we're now talking about service development. And that's an entirely different monster from hardware strategy. And I have no doubt they have great plans to innovate here (much like they did with PS+), but what will it be, how long will it take, and how does it effect the development of PS5.
But the nice thing is, they have these mid-gen refreshes that can help extend the life of the existing product so that they don't feel pressured to deliver. The products as they are today are still satisfying a lot of people (and those that aren't, the mid-gen refreshes are available).
So overall, if no one is discontent with the product, the graphics and gameplay bars are still moving forward, is it that necessary to move to next gen after 6 years of service?
PS Classic?
Gemüsepizza
Newcomer
But it's not just that. There is also the fact that Sony now has 80+m MAUs. By being the first on the market with a next-gen console that has BC, they can attempt to lock them in for another generation. The combination of BC and high MAU numbers is a unique situation which has never existed like that, and this gives them an opportunity to make things differently this time.
And the chance in succeeding here will go down the longer they are waiting, because Microsoft won't just sit and watch, I'm convinced that MS will go all out to win back what they have lost. And those MAU numbers will also go down again. So imo Sony needs to be aggressive, now that they have such momentum.
And a good way to do that could be by releasing a subsidised PS5 in 2019, which is so good that people just can't say no. One additional year of PS4 profits or a PS5, that is slightly cheaper to produce, won't mean much when instead they could strengthen the Playstation ecosystem for generations to come. I really think they have a historic opportunity here to consolidate their lead in the console space.
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Metal_Spirit
Regular
Someone is getting discontent... Look at this link that contains Kodera presentation to investor.
If you check the "FY2017 Operating Profit Variation from FY2016" you will see an increase in profits comming from point 1 "Profit improvement from hardware cost down".
Now add to this that 2017 (fiscal year 2018) was a record year in sales for PS4, and check ""FY2018 Operating Profit Variation from FY2017".
You see on point one a big loss... The biggest of them all, and named "Hardware units sales decline and cost increase".
Well... hardware units sales decline??? In the year where PS4 sold the most???
Thats just a name for the chapter for shure... there cannot be any hardware units sales decline. Look at this chart!
So... since there is no hardware sales decline... it must be all due to cost increase. Maybe due to mantaining production lines when 7nm is out there, and jaguar is obsolete.
I believe this means a new console is in order! Instead of taking losses to mantain old hardware it would be better to take losses on new hardware that can regain profitability in 2020.
If one looks at the reasons people pick PS over XB, I don't think there's much reason for Sony to fear losing customers.
If MS comes out first, why would the PS4 fans switch? PS5 can come out later, be more powerful, and offer everything people liked about PS4. If Sony comes out first, they lock in their existing users. Or basically, there's no reason for PS fans to switch. The only time Sony lost PS fans, their hardware was horrifically overpriced.
It'd be really nice if this thread could stick to hardware predictions instead of timeline predictions.
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