anexanhume
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It’s a statement using vague, imprecise language. “End of lifecycle” has no direct meaning in the marketplace. If PS5 were to launch in Fall 2019, another 1.5 years doesn’t scream end of lifecycle to me.
Next Generation Hardware Speculation with a Technical Spin [2018]
- Thread starter Tkumpathenurple
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anexanhume
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Why is 2020 missing? I guess this hides console launch date. If they show a similar dip in 2020, it points to Fall 2019 launch.
It seems Sony will be more aggressive with PS5 than PS4
This pretty much confirms a 2020 launch then. It does look more suitable with the timing of tech, PS4 swan song titles and competition.
It seems Sony will be more aggressive with PS5 than PS4
anexanhume
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No, it obscures the launch date. March 2020 would be Fall 2019 results, so a big dip there would indicate a console launch. By skipping to 2021 data, we can’t infer whether that’s the launch, or a slow climb from the launch the previous year.
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Deleted member 13524
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That's my take too. Assuming the Plus subscriptions will keep on coming, it seems the lower profits will come from getting little to no margins from the hardware.It seems Sony will be more aggressive with PS5 than PS4
It's too early to announce a PS5, especially if it's coming in 2019 as it would cause an Osborne effect on current PS4 sales.
As mentioned above, hiding 2020 was probably done to hide the launch date.
Notice the month it says there, March? For Japan, March 2019 means fiscal year 2018. It refers to profits made between April 1st 2018 and March 31st 2019, so it's the current period where Sony is counting on very strong software sales (God of War + Spiderman + Detroit + maybe another Q1 2019 release like Days Gone or Death Stranding).
FY 2018 will probably be the peak of PS4's profits, and then it's still in the air if the PS5 launches in 2019 or 2020.
anexanhume
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Software sales can expected to contract at the start of the generation too, but I’d have to dig through previous year financials to have a guess at how much.
Edit: FY2013 to 2014 revenues grew 38% but operating income only decreased 1% as a percent of revenue. An up to 30% drop in revenue is reflective of a significant shift in cost structure, especially when hardware and packaged software sales accounted for just 44% of revenue last year, compared to games services (PSN, digitlal) taking up the rest.
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Deleted member 13524
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This is to be expected. The total addressable market for games releasing on a new console is tiny compared the 90-100 Million user base the PS4 will enjoy during FY 2018.
Granted, a few games will probably release on both PS4 and PS5, but fewer gamers are willing to spend money on new titles for old platforms so the TAM for the PS4 will also get a sharp decrease by then.
This also depends on the kind of game, of course. People buy updated FIFAs to get an updated roster so their sales stay strong on older platforms, but if e.g. TLoU2 releases in mid-2019 then I could see many people holding back to play it on the PS5.
anexanhume
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Theoretically, all games launching will be for PS5. Only some will be PS5 exclusive. That should soften the hit of a generation shift on software revenue, I’d think. I doubt double dippers are significant enough to counteract that.
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Deleted member 13524
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Hard to say. We can't follow the results for the PS4 launch because the previous years were marked by the Tohoku earthquake in 2011 (which IIRC closed a bunch of Sony's factories) and an irregularly long PS3 lifetime that resulted in black for the gaming section during FY 2012 and losses during FY 2013.
Fiscal year 2019 is April 2019 to March 2020, they will launch in November 2019 this is my bet...
They hide fiscal year 2019 totally here no estimation for April 2019 to March 2020.
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Not at all. The cost of PS5 R&D is already being absorbed but the biggest costs will be associated with gearing up for production, so 3-6 months prior - assuming Sony pay up front and not in arrears - which is a big IF. By the time Sony report such costs they will have already announced PS5 and the launch window/date.
That drop is most likely the point where profit clearly derived from PS4's massive user base drives off a cliff because far less games are being released for it, which will be long after PS5 comes out.
anexanhume
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Here’s a rolling history of playstation financials for context
Tkumpathenurple
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Wow, that graph makes it clear how much the PS3 was a fuck up.
anexanhume
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They were losing around $200 a console sold in the early days. The PS4 was an incredible rebound, especially when you consider they only went slightly negative on OP to launch it.
Wow. Look at how short lived the other console's OP lifecycle is and compare that to this gen. Staggering. But importantly I think, if there's R&D going into PS5 design now, that'll be eating into that operating profit. So either revenue is even higher than that graph implies, or heavy investment hasn't begun yet into PS5.
anexanhume
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I’m not confident R&D is reflected in these numbers. I think it’s a separate, company wide number.
Yup, it’s a company wide number. It only increased 3% this year according to last Sony results.
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