Next Generation Hardware Speculation with a Technical Spin [2018]

[Xbat]

I feel timeline dictates hardware and I feel we more or less know what hardware we going to get. For me there is almost no gain in waiting for fall 2020 other than price. You ask why they would switch if Xbox comes out first, speaking from my personal experience I went with a 360 last gen because it was the first console out in my country and played all the cool new 3rd party games in fact we went from a complete Sony dominate mind share to Xbox 360 being the leading console.
The first 15 - 20 million customers are the "hardcore" you get them quick and you start snowballing. As much as it pains me to say it social media has a significant impact on the sheep these days.

 

[Shifty Geezer]

I feel timeline dictates hardware and I feel we more or less know what hardware we going to get. For me there is almost no gain in waiting for fall 2020 other than price. You ask why they would switch if Xbox comes out first, speaking from my personal experience...

Anecdotal. The vast majority of people don't buy their console the year it comes out, and the experiences aren't directly interchangeable such that you can swap a console brand as easily as you can a TV. It's more akin to swapping from Android to iOS or vice versa.

...we went from a complete Sony dominate mind share to Xbox 360 being the leading console.

Only because PS3 was such a screw up. Had PS3 been as cheap as 360, it'd have ridden the PS brand more likely than not. The winning brand has to give people a reason to switch, otherwise they don't bother. You don't change phone type or ISP if there's nothing wrong with what you're used to. People like you who don't care and want in on the earliest next-gen box are a small fraction of the market and not worth basing an entire generation's hardware on.

The first 15 - 20 million customers are the "hardcore" you get them quick and you start snowballing. As much as it pains me to say it social media has a significant impact on the sheep these days.

You sell ten million to platform fans no matter what. That's your first year sales. There's no evidence of snowballing without a strong brand behind it - 360 was first out the gate, cheaper and largely better, but never snowballed and only managed to maintain steady growth and secure half the market. Contrast that with PS2 that snowballed thanks to the exclusive library and brand and whitewashed the generation.

Potentially, if MS offers something incredible and the media pushes it and people buy into it, they might put the pressure on Sony, but in all likelihood it'll be just another games playing machine. Every PS4 owner knows there'll be a PS5 coming soon afterwards. They'll assume it'll be better if it's coming later. Their PS4 doesn't instantly become garbage, and the difference between PS4 and an earlier next-gen machine will be less than between former consoles so the incentive to upgrade will be less. That is, PS1 to PS2 was massive, so people wanted in early. PS4 to a 2019 XB will be less of a jump, leaving people more content to carry on with PS4 until PS5 arrives and they can make an informed decision.

A business case can be made for launching early and for launching late. This isn't the thread for that. I'm sure there's on around somewhere.

 

[Silent_Buddha]

So... since there is no hardware sales decline... it must be all due to cost increase. Maybe due to mantaining production lines when 7nm is out there, and jaguar is obsolete.

Increased hardware cost has been mainly due to the cost of some components increasing due to increased demand caused by the cryptocurrency boom and not due to what node the SOC is being manufactured on.

For example, demand for DDR and GDDR has increased significantly due to the crypto boom.

Regards,
SB

 

[Gemüsepizza]

Source? I would have assumed that they have long-term contracts with mostly fixed prices, considering their memory configuration doesn't change every year and they sell millions of consoles.

 

[anexanhume]

Increased hardware cost has been mainly due to the cost of some components increasing due to increased demand caused by the cryptocurrency boom and not due to what node the SOC is being manufactured on.

For example, demand for DDR and GDDR has increased significantly due to the crypto boom.

Regards,
SB

And price gouging/fixing, which everyone is under investigation for yet again.

 

[AlNom]

Source? I would have assumed that they have long-term contracts with mostly fixed prices, considering their memory configuration doesn't change every year and they sell millions of consoles.

Potentially, they'd have a new contract for 4Pro's higher speed bin and/or the 8Gbit density chips.

I don't know how the contracts would have been setup, but hypothetically, if the contract was to order DRAM by some ludicrous number, they'd have to re-negotiate once the supply terms were met (they'd have needed internal projections of how many consoles were to be produced, and how many chips they'd need). Of course, the DRAM producers hold all the chips anyway , so it'd perhaps also be on their terms how long a contract can even be at some rate of supply - every quarter? every year? how much more are they willing to pay to secure more supply per month (as opposed to sodding off and making DRAM for other markets)?

idk.

 

[Silent_Buddha]

Yes, with the volatility of the DRAM market, no DRAM manufacturer would lock themselves into a multiyear contract at a set price. Likewise no device maker would lock themselves into a multiyear contract at a set price. For example, Sony would look pretty silly if they had a 5 year contract for GDDR and then the year after they made the contract, the price of GDDR dropped below what they were contracted for.

Contracts are likely to be either short term for fixed pricing or tied to prevailing market price trends for longer term contracts.

Contracts for set prices are also likely tied to set # of chips. IE - DRAM makers must supply the entire market, one DRAM consumer therefore can't get a contract that would potentially require all DRAM allocation be allotted to them. After a certain point, they will be required to compete with other DRAM consumers for the limited supply available.

In other words, at the start of this console generation, Sony would have had an easier time negotiating favorable pricing as demand from GPU manufacturer's was relatively steady and were still in decline at that time due to a weak PC market.

http://www.iconnect007.com/index.ph...arket-slides-nvidia-dominates/88229/?skin=ein

Even then, GPU makers in 2013 shipped 65 million units in 1 quarter. GPU shipments dwarfed PS4 shipments even back then. However, due to a declining market, GDDR supply was thus higher than demand and thus Sony could get favorable pricing despite being a lower volume consumer.

https://wccftech.com/nvidia-amd-discrete-gpu-market-share-report-q3-2017/

While no numbers for volume of units shipped, it shows that GPU shipments have been growing and are at a 5 year high.

So, since 2013, discrete GPU shipments have increased and PS4 shipments have increased. While some SKUs use HBM or GDDR6, the vast majority of boards still use GDDR5.

In other words, NV and AMD will have an easier time negotiating bulk pricing. But everyone is paying more for GDDR now compared to 2013.

While cryptocurrency isn't the only market increasing demand for GPUs (AI is increasingly putting pressure on GPU makers as well) and hence GDDR, it was unexpected, and hence caught the industry by relative surprise. Everyone has been scrambling not only to meet demand of traditional consumers (PS4 included), but also the demand for cryptocurrency.

Regards,
SB

 

[anexanhume]

Some interesting 7nm news from GF:

Later this year, GF will use immersion steppers to tape out its first 7-nm chip, an AMD processor. An IBM processor will follow with ASICs coming in 2019, said Patton.

GF made the size of its 7-nm pitches and SRAM cells similar to those of TSMC to let designers like AMD use both foundries. AMD “will have more demand than we have capacity, so I have no issues with that,” he said of AMD using the Taiwan foundry.

However, GF will skip the 5-nm node as it did the 10-nm node, believing that it will have modest incremental gains. It is seeking financial and technology partners for its follow-on, likely a 3-nm node.

https://www.eetimes.com/document.asp?_mc=RSS_EET_EDT&doc_id=1333326&page_number=2

 

[function]

Even then, GPU makers in 2013 shipped 65 million units in 1 quarter. GPU shipments dwarfed PS4 shipments even back then. However, due to a declining market, GDDR supply was thus higher than demand and thus Sony could get favorable pricing despite being a lower volume consumer.

Not that it changes the overall picture, but it's worth pointing out that most GPU would have been using 8 or 4 (or in some cases even 2) gddr5 chips, while Sony were rocking a massive 16 per console.

Given the growth in the market, and the possibility of launching with only 12 or 8 memory chips per device, it may be even more difficult for Sony (or MS) to negotiate a deal as favourable as they did last time.

 

[function]

Some interesting 7nm news from GF:



https://www.eetimes.com/document.asp?_mc=RSS_EET_EDT&doc_id=1333326&page_number=2

That's not their EUV processes however, and EUV is looking likely to be introduced in two stages. EUV should lead to higher yields and so potentially larger chips, higher clocks, and lower power consumption.

 

[anexanhume]

That's not their EUV processes however, and EUV is looking likely to be introduced in two stages. EUV should lead to higher yields and so potentially larger chips, higher clocks, and lower power consumption.

No, it’s more interesting for the bolder parts - portability between TSMC and GF 7nm, and AMD maxing GF 7nm capacity (just Fab 8 for now).

 

[phoenix_chipset]

Given the growth in the market, and the possibility of launching with only 12 or 8 memory chips per device, it may be even more difficult for Sony (or MS) to negotiate a deal as favourable as they did last time.

I think it more so depends on how fast China and the US can prove samsung, hynix and micron guilty. Part of the reason prices are higher is because there's more demand, but yeah they're still ripping us off.

It's going to cost Sony and MS at least a bit more this time though, sure.

 

[Entropy]

Samsung is investing $30 billion in a new memory fab.
All players are investing actually, the current situation isn’t permanent.

 

[BRiT]

Until the next time they conspire and fix prices...

 

[Deleted member 13524]

Until the next time they conspire and fix prices...

Which is looking like a 10-year cycle between getting caught, paying the fines, actually competing for a while and start the cartels all over again.

Companies who are repeat offenders on price fixing should have aggravated sentences, to the point of driving them out of business for a while like the U.S. did with ZTE.

 

[Entropy]

Which is looking like a 10-year cycle between getting caught, paying the fines, actually competing for a while and start the cartels all over again.

Companies who are repeat offenders on price fixing should have aggravated sentences, to the point of driving them out of business for a while like the U.S. did with ZTE.

While that would be satisfying from one point of view, if Samsung (for instance) were prohibited from selling memory chips, the resultant lack of product would hardly benefit consumers. Hefty fines are a better approach, but actually proving price fixing is difficult. Even when it seems obvious.

 

[Xbat]

Samsung is investing $30 billion in a new memory fab.
All players are investing actually, the current situation isn’t perman upent.

How long does it take for them to get a new fab up and running?

 

[Entropy]

Volume production in 2020 according to publicly disclosed plans.

 

[Deleted member 11852]

Until the next time they conspire and fix prices...

They never stopped. I can't remember a time when DRAM manufacturers weren't being accused of price-fixing.

 

[Xbat]

Volume production in 2020 according to publicly disclosed plans.

Possibly cements 2020 release window?