Next Generation Hardware Speculation with a Technical Spin [2018]

[DieH@rd]

For the past 6+ years I'm overpaying for 20/1 ADSL package so that I could get 14mbit downstream, and that's the best internet I will get for the forseable future [at least a decade]. No other option, no plans for VDSL expansion [forward stations] in my area, no plans for placing cable/fiber lines in my city.

It was manageable so far, but more and more of my family members are chipping away this bandwidth as they get phones/computers. When gen9 games start be shipping on UHD BD discs [up to 100GB], PSN downloads will start to be multi-day affair to me.

 

[Gubbi]

I'm at a reasonable broadband speed of 300 mbit/sec (or 37 MB/s) with the option to upgrade to Gigabit (or 125 MB/s) speed for $20 more a month today. I expect these reasonable broadband speeds to be even faster in 2021 and to be cheaper too.

I'd say more than reasonable.

In 2017, the average download speed in the UK was 43.6MBit/s for Scotland, 47.8 for England, 39.2 for NI and 33.4 for Wales (according to page 4 in this). The median will be lower than the average thanks to outliers like yourself.

Cheers

 

[Deleted member 13524]

BF1 is 110GB

Waaaaat?
Does the retail version of BF1 come in two blurays?
Is that just full game or full game + all DLCs?

Regardless, by looking at my PS4, I can tell that the vast majority of the games take 30-40GB.
I have no idea why BF1 ballooned like that. Is the game that big?

That save data could be written to constantly. Elder Scrolls has a database of every object that's moved. In a living world with NPCs moving stuff around, the objects would have to be saved as they are changed. Or a massive megatexture of user-modified scenery (persistent bullet holes and footprints) would be constantly updated as the player plays. A save file could be overwritten hundreds of times. We've been talking about using flash as a substitute for RAM, saving RAM costs. In such a case it could be constantly overwritten with cached data from the HDD or wherever.

I'm confident that Sony/AMD/Enmotus could automate a way for the data partitions that are getting lots of overwrites to just update on volatile RAM, and periodically update the data on the SSD (like they do nowadays on HDDs).
As for save games, pretty much everything but turn-based games have transitioned to checkpoints nowadays, so nothing would really change on that front.

 

[Lalaland]

Waaaaat?
Does the retail version of BF1 come in two blurays?
Is that just full game or full game + all DLCs?

Regardless, by looking at my PS4, I can tell that the vast majority of the games take 30-40GB.
I have no idea why BF1 ballooned like that. Is the game that big?

Yeah I had to doubletake myself when I looked it up, that is BF1 + all DLCs (yup it wasn't this big at launch, iirc it was ~60 GB) but I think a significant portion of folks would have one major MP game or another and even if I hadn't bought the DLC I'm still forced to download them to maintain compatibility with folks who haven't. BF1 has a lot of very purdy textures which is where I'm guessing the bloat comes from and that's the easiest win for a nice next gen look so I'd expect more titles to start bloating up well past 50/60GB. From my own list of games most modern (ie <1 year old) games were in the 50-60GB range, the only titles I had that were in 30-40GB range were older than two years or were using a non-photo real aesthetic (NMS at 15GB), D2 was 50GB iirc (away from PS4) but the major expansion has yet to hit and that will bloat it up to 70ish gigs if D1 is any guide. Anyone have COD:WW2 to check it's on disk size now?

To come back to the BD50 vs BD100 thing I could easily see companies choosing to use the (presumably) cheaper BD50 and use heavy compression on assets that gets inflated during game install (if that's even a thing) or do the multi GB day 1 "patch" thing for the back half of the game.

 

[Shifty Geezer]

I'm confident that Sony/AMD/Enmotus could automate a way for the data partitions that are getting lots of overwrites to just update on volatile RAM...

If you have enough RAM. So do you add expense in more RAM to save flash writes, or do you spend that money on more robust flash in the first place?

 

[Deleted member 13524]

So do you add expense in more RAM to save flash writes, or do you spend that money on more robust flash in the first place?

Like everything, there would be a optimized proportion between the two.

 

[goonergaz]

Waaaaat?
Does the retail version of BF1 come in two blurays?
Is that just full game or full game + all DLCs?

Regardless, by looking at my PS4, I can tell that the vast majority of the games take 30-40GB.
I have no idea why BF1 ballooned like that. Is the game that big?

Majority are probably less than 30gb if you look closer, but that doesn't stop the trend of big games getting bigger, especially next gen with the bigger textures (I assume).

I know I have half a dozen games which are 50gb+ and I don't really buy loads of games. Also I noticed some of my Xbox games are 50gb+ and I hardly use my Xbox so litterall a handful of games.

There must be a dedicated site/forum thread somewhere dedicated to this?

Edit

https://www.gamesradar.com/biggest-ps4-install-size-game

https://www.eurogamer.net/articles/...an-anything-top-final-fantasy-15s-148gb-on-pc

 

[mrcorbo]

SSD endurance testing

Making the flash user-replaceable is a good idea, though, if they are going to include it.

 

[Shortbread]

SSD endurance testing

Making the flash user-replaceable is a good idea, though, if they are going to include it

Déjà vu

 

[BRiT]

The following changes this time around for deja-vu: QLC has lower endurance than TLC which has lower endurance than what was before it. More storage but lower longevity.

 

[Shortbread]

The following changes this time around for deja-vu: QLC has lower endurance than TLC which has lower endurance than what was before it. More storage but lower longevity.

I figure whatever SSD technology Sony/MS choose (if they do so), that the SSD has an expected minimum lifespan of 5yrs under normal operating conditions. That being said, their respective consoles OS's should have SSD integrity software built-in notifying users of possible issues, backing-up data or replacing the drive soon. A simple data/SSD integrity check during systems updates or manually executed by users wanting to know. Honestly, replacing an SSD after 5 (or more) years shouldn't be a complaint gamers should have, when prices for SSDs will be significantly lower at such time... and replacement of such drive, should be less than 10 minutes.

 

[BRiT]

I agree. I want the SSD/NVME unit to be user repairable and upgradable without voiding the warranty. I don't think that's too much to ask.

 

[mrcorbo]

The following changes this time around for deja-vu: QLC has lower endurance than TLC which has lower endurance than what was before it. More storage but lower longevity.

I would hope that they would choose endurance over capacity in this case, though. I think the initial setup Intel floated with Optane makes a lot of sense. There's rumors that Micron aren't moving the numbers of 3D Xpoint they would like either, so there may be a deal to be made there

 

[function]

I agree. I want the SSD/NVME unit to be user repairable and upgradable without voiding the warranty. I don't think that's too much to ask.

So much this. If low durability parts are used then there must a way for consumers to replace them or swap them out at purchase for none-terrible parts.

 

[mrcorbo]

I would hope that they would choose endurance over capacity in this case, though. I think the initial setup Intel floated with Optane makes a lot of sense. There's rumors that Micron aren't moving the numbers of 3D Xpoint they would like either, so there may be a deal to be made there

To clarify: The Intel setup was using a small Optane stick to cache a larger hard drive.

 

[MrFox]

It's becoming very complicated to figure out the lifespan of nand because the usage pattern affects it, and the controllers implement a lot of ram caching and clever tricks. Dumb random sector writes would end up being a a full block erase/write of 128k or 256k for each write operation, and twice that for wear-leveling. Randomly writing all over the drive will destroy it orders of magnitudes faster than linear full-block writes. Writing only aligned full blocks will increase the total write lifespan far beyond the specs.

Supposing the best solution here is an HDD and some 128GB fast nand, that one would definitely be a more robust TLC or even planar MLC. Looking at the problem in reverse, the 100 times endurance advantage of planar MLC versus QLC comes at only 2x the price. The 10 times advantage of TLC versus QLC is only 1.3x the price.

This is the best reference I found so far:
http://www.mdpi.com/2073-431X/6/2/16/pdf

 

[Shifty Geezer]

Are there any long-term mobile examples? Flash there seems to be constantly written to - patches are never ending! Of course mobiles tend not to hang around for long.

 

[turkey]

Are there any long-term mobile examples? Flash there seems to be constantly written to - patches are never ending! Of course mobiles tend not to hang around for long.

iPads?

People keep them for ages, we still have a ipad2 that's got to be console lifespan old.

I cannot find anything on flash but general lifespan (in active use) is not over 4 years

https://appleinsider.com/articles/1...for-all-apple-devices-at-over-four-years/amp/

I suspect iPads push this up and iPhone pull this somewhat down due to many users only using them for 2 years on contact or these smaller portable items getting physically broken.

 

[MrFox]

Consumer eMMC was 50000 cycles in SLC, 10000 cycles in MLC, it is currently 3000 cycles with TLC, so I guess QLC would be 300 cycles.

Edit: there's a lot of different numbers around. The planar TLC was somewhat horrible and got much better in 3D because the cell size jumped back up. I assume it has to go back down with smaller nodes. In any case it means cost reduction per GB has to come with lower endurance unless a breakthrough happens.

 

[AlNom]

https://www.theregister.co.uk/2018/08/13/flash_oversupply_analysis/

confirmed we are in a flash over-supply situation, and there will be a downward pricing correction, if not collapse, close to the production cost of 64-layer 3D NAND, meaning $0.08/GB in 2019

DRAMeXchange data, estimated total NAND flash pricing stands today at ~$0.30/GB

hm.