Next Generation Hardware Speculation with a Technical Spin [2018]

This 4x drop figure is practically impossible.

A massive dumping of parts would be short term, couldn't impact large volume long term contracts, and couldn't be used as a reference to spec a console with reasonable BOM. The amount of memory would be planned based on the expected memory cost over the lifespan of the console.

We're way past due for a readjustment though, at least a 2x drop for 2019 would be great.

 

Indeed. In my region, 100€ can get an entry 500GB SATA SSD. Many people [including me] would jump on the opportunity to get 1TB for the same price.

 

PS5 2019-2020 launch and MLCC shortage: Translated part of the article.

Original article link.

Photorealism confirmed...

/s

 

And it's a smartphone!!

 

I think something is lost in translation... or the SonyPS5SwitchPhone is confirmed.

 

Well for a start, PS5 will be much cheaper.

 

MLCC shortage and price hike have been happening already for a while, predicted to last until 2020 as it takes time to increase production.

Not sure why they think it would impact PS5, it doesn't look like an issue right now at all. It would have been already impacting xbox disproportionally since they have over a hundred of those under the board for both the One S and One X. PS4 and Pro use a quarter of that.

I wonder if they'll naturally need more of them for 7nm and beyond?

 

It's a bad translation. The original articles speculates on a lack of 3D MLCC capacity for PlayStation 5 chips in volume because of demand for smartphone manufacture.

It probably won't be that much an issue, if Sony are launching next year they'll already have reserved manufacturing. Or AMD will have.

It's not like Sony is new to this.

 

Some suppliers have recently had factory fires and are quoting 1+ year lead times to some customers. It is a genuine issue.

 

Fires in fab factories or the fire in the factory that made the kilns used in the factories that make the chips? I'm aware of the latter, but not the former.

 

Edit: the fire was decades ago, articles are mentioning the sumitomo fire as the last time there was such a shortage?

Three big manufacturers decided to drop the production of the low-margin mlcc and focus on the high margin ones. So we are seeing a big impact on the most common ones used in smartphones . Apparently there is also a massive increase in the number of mlcc in smartphones (the iphone X used 3 times as many as the previous iphone). A perfect storm.

A console is probably in a good position to be redesigned to use other types of caps, while smartphones absolutely need ceramics for their extreme energy density in a tiny form factor.

http://www.taipeitimes.com/News/biz/archives/2018/06/12/2003694718

https://www.ttiinc.com/content/ttii...ye/categories/passives/me-zogbi-20180302.html


There's plenty of alternatives for most designs.

Newer designs, and those currently using a large arrays of mlcc output caps (xbox) can possibly replace them with a couple aluminum polymer. Doesn't apply to ps4s since they have always been using polymer as the bulk capacity for both input and output in their vrms, and only a few mlcc right under the chips.

http://pages.na.industrial.panasonic.com/rs/173-ONW-167/images/MLCC Rescue Your Design Flyer.pdf

 

MLCC under the chip makes sense. Vendors put a lot of effort into low ESR/ESL ceramics, but not so much for polymers or tantalums.

 

Sony has already provided 20 tflops mock devkit. Not real dev kits Just start...

 

How do we know this?

 

Ps5 72 - 82 cu not apu (maybe!) 7nm gpu

 

Some bloke on the internet said it.

 

Nope.

 

Source?

 

Some bloke on the internet said it.
Maybe even himself.

 

I never can tell if a reply is serious or not...Do you know anything as fact about PS5 then? Genuine question.