Next gen HW - what stage in development would it be in now?

[Sdw]

If we for a moment assume that both Microsoft and Sony are aiming at releasing consoles the next generation with the target of being much faster and better than this generation (ie, not the Nintendo reuse strategy) - where would they be in their development process now?

I mean, are they still in the planning stages - everything is still undecided (CPU architecture, gfx hardware)?
Or perhaps they have decided upon the main architecture, and started designing hardware (minor things like RAM amount and clockspeeds still undecided ofcourse).

What can we deduct from previous gen, that is, how far in the planning were the Xbox360 and PS3 back in say 2003 or so?

 

[Shifty Geezer]

Planning and RnD I expect. You wouldn't expect a full hardware design and basic spec until at the earliest some 2 years before intended release, as you want to keep an eye on the market and adjust any predictions and specs from previous cost estimates and predictions of where hardware would be. RnD can stretch back to the beginning of previous generations - supposedly Sony were looking at 'Sixaxis' in PS1's time. Cell was being thought about as a concept before PS2 launched IIRC.

 

[INKster]

Planning and RnD I expect. You wouldn't expect a full hardware design and basic spec until at the earliest some 2 years before intended release, as you want to keep an eye on the market and adjust any predictions and specs from previous cost estimates and predictions of where hardware would be. RnD can stretch back to the beginning of previous generations - supposedly Sony were looking at 'Sixaxis' in PS1's time. Cell was being thought about as a concept before PS2 launched IIRC.

Maybe so, but this time there's a clear roadmap for the Cell-BE architecture from IBM, so there are less "unknowns" from Sony's point of view.


Of the "big three", Nintendo is probably the one facing the really hard decisions.
How to evolve a massive commercial success now that the control scheme is no longer "news", and the Gamecube/Wii underlying hardware architecture is clearly showing the weight of the years with its software base looking dated -no denying that- ?
Sticking with the basic PowerPC ISA is almost certainly a given, but then what ? What kind of PPC ? What kind of GPU, RAM and respective amount, etc ?
No easy task, i guess.

 

[Heinrich4]

I fear the nintendo*with very, very strong sales Sony and MS decided not invested "high specs" console and adopted "wii/gamecube like" for next generation(2009/10?).

*(if does work before with DS vs psp and now with wii vs ps3/x360 contenders...why Sony and MS didnt copy this model?)

 

[silhouette]

On the CPU side, the problem is more or less solved for both MS and Sony. Probably we will see 4 of the current CPUs in a single package (i.e. 12+ core -maybe slightly tweaked- xenos for next Xbox and 1/2 BE + 24-28 SPU core for Sony). The developers will be fully familiar with the architectures by then and there will be robust tools for both architectures. Then, why change it?

On the GPU side, again the problem is basically solved for MS. They probably use the same GFX core (maybe a little bit tweaked to make it fully SM 4.x compatible ) with increased clock-frequency and 4x number of arrays + more caches.. That's all they need. For Sony, they may go with a SM4.0 core from NV again.

Both solution will also give them full backwards compatibility with 360/PS3 games which will be a big plus.

I do not think they will go Nintendo's route. By that time, even 360/PS3 themselves will be cheap to manufacture and powerful enough to run any casual/family oriented games. All they have to do is come up with a novel controller and a host games for it if they want to address that market too.

 

[AlNom]

Folks may want to continue their prediction of hardware to the aptly named thread...

 

[tongue_of_colicab]

I dont think BC is a big plus, I actually think hardly anybody cares about it. How many people actually care about the crap x360 BC? hardy anybody and rightfully so because those few early adapters might use it a couple of months but after that nobody will use it because they rather play the new games.

I agree ms and sony probably wont go the nintendo way, but I wouldnt be suprised if they do try to keep cost to do a more acceptable 300/400 euro's from the start. Especially sony should have learned that a 600 euro console just aint going to work no matter how powerfull. Another thing might be that HW cost keep rising and rising but the actually result on screen will be less and less. But I do think they might focus a bit more on the actually playing of the games because wii proved you dont need to market power to archive succes.

I'm really interrested in what nintendo will do on the HW front. It will be cheap again I suppose, but what about the architecture? the cpu and gpu probably dont have enough stretch left in them to last another generation in which nintendo said they will support HD and the likes. I suppose they have to drop the fixed function gpu and go for something modern? should be to much of a problem as everybody exept gc/wii only devs should have plenty of experience with that?

 

[one]

I dont think BC is a big plus, I actually think hardly anybody cares about it. How many people actually care about the crap x360 BC? hardy anybody and rightfully so because those few early adapters might use it a couple of months but after that nobody will use it because they rather play the new games.

New games... like Wii Sports? I think casual gamers do care about BC than those who want to play cutting-edge HD games right now (= hardcore gamers).

I agree ms and sony probably wont go the nintendo way, but I wouldnt be suprised if they do try to keep cost to do a more acceptable 300/400 euro's from the start. Especially sony should have learned that a 600 euro console just aint going to work no matter how powerfull.

$600 is not necessarily bad if it's released before any other competitors. In PS3's case the disc format battle delayed the schedule.

 

[ERP]

A sheet of paper with some possible specs on it. Meetingss between hard and software guys.
Possibly some work on libraries.

 

[Mobius1aic]

Honestly I think Nintendo will go for much more powerful hardware next time around, maybe not on par with the PS3 or 360, but something as powerful as the current next gen systems or maybe just a bit weaker. Once current Wii users get used to the limitations of the system, I'm sure there will be an outcry for better looking games. So how would Nintendo address this, yet still maintain functionality of GC and Wii software and hardware? Since eventually what is being done on Wii will become more popular and commonplace on competitor's systems, Nintendo will have to continue to innovate heavily each round, or innovate on the same current idea as right now, and just improve the overall specs for the next generation.

So what would be my "ideal" yet practical next generation Nintendo system's specs?

CPU: Well for this I'm sure PPC architecture will be the way to go again, and to keep cost down, Nintendo will go for somewhat older hardware, maybe a processor on the same level as the Xenon, but perhaps with 4 cores on a 45 nm process or lower instead of 3 on 90/65 nm. Nintendo has no need to invest in floating point monsters on the likes of the Cell BE if all they really need is a "Wii 2.0". They just need to finally make current HD graphics a possibility for consumers until the control system's "innovation" wears out, and they have to innovate in other ways. I'm not too well versed with emulation and architecture, but if a newer PPC core is running instruction sets and similar processes that were present in older PPC architecture like the 750CL, I don't see why GC and Wii stuff should run perfectly fine on a newer, more powerful processor, just run on a single core, implement same instruction sets, lower the clock speed and go.

GPU: With graphics pick up a real necessity, I figure Nintendo will have to develope a whole new GPU and just keep the old Wii GPU for backwards compatibility. I imagine a Wii 2.0 to have a GPU on the likes of the ATi 3870 or even about 50% faster.

RAM: A smart decision was made with the Wii being given a nice large amount of RAM for the entire system and I would know doubt expect anything less for the Wii 2.0. A full GB pr GDDR4 is what I expect, split into seperate VRAM and SRAM pools running on hopefully 256 or 512-bit memory buses for the graphics.

Basically I'm aiming for specs that give Wii owners a taste of what current 360, PS3, and PC owners are getting right now.

 

[big4ared]

When does MS have to make a decision about whether to use Blu-Ray or HD-DVD? It should be a given that the Xbox 720 will use one or the other. After all, it wouldn't make much sense to have a 9GB disk for a machine with 2 or 4 GB or RAM. Do they make that decision now, a year from now, or do you think it has already been made?

 

[archangelmorph]

When does MS have to make a decision about whether to use Blu-Ray or HD-DVD? It should be a given that the Xbox 720 will use one or the other. After all, it wouldn't make much sense to have a 9GB disk for a machine with 2 or 4 GB or RAM. Do they make that decision now, a year from now, or do you think it has already been made?

That decision is gonna come from the results of the format war which may well arrive within the next 12-24 months..

The tables seem to be tipping in favour of BR as the HD standard & recently MS have been being very vocal about their willingness to adopt BR (with the current Xbox addon..) should the market sway enough towards it..

IMO I believe MS could have considered an internal HD-DVD drive by now if not from the fact that the format war is still in flux.. I wouldn't be supprised to see a BR one however should the format win out overall..

 

[LordNerevar]

I don't think a PS4 will be released in the next 6-8 years, so they will have plenty of time to think about new hardware architecture.On the other hand, if MS continues to keep making new console every 4 years, i guess they will go with new optical drive(I guess they will go with Blu Ray, since HD-DVD has been abandoned by almost every major studio), NVidia graphics, and again IBM processor.I guess they will again use the UMA.

 

[Squilliam]

I don't think a PS4 will be released in the next 6-8 years, so they will have plenty of time to think about new hardware architecture.On the other hand, if MS continues to keep making new console every 4 years, i guess they will go with new optical drive(I guess they will go with Blu Ray, since HD-DVD has been abandoned by almost every major studio), NVidia graphics, and again IBM processor.I guess they will again use the UMA.

In 6 years time I'll be using my Radeon HD 9700 (Geforce ran out of numbers so sue me ok? ^^). I will be playing direct X 13 games, and yet, you think that the PS4 won't be out by then? The PS3 in 6 years time will be in EOL (end of life) phase, think cheap, small, everywhere. It will be to the PS4 what the PS2 is to the PS3.

No console can expect to last 8-10 years, especially not with graphics power doubling every 18 months and Cpu power doubling still every 24 months. Software optimizations can only take you so far.

Consoles are obsolete before they hit the streets. The best example of this is the GPU in the PS3. It was already superceded by the G80 before it hit the streets.

 

[LordNerevar]

I agree with you, but Sony is consistent with it's claimes that PS4 won't come out for next 8-10 years(they said that at PS3 launch).I fully understand how much will PS3 be absolute in 5 years time, but i don't think PS4 will be launched until at least 2013...

 

[Carl B]

I agree with you, but Sony is consistent with it's claimes that PS4 won't come out for next 8-10 years(they said that at PS3 launch).I fully understand how much will PS3 be absolute in 5 years time, but i don't think PS4 will be launched until at least 2013...

Sony's claims are that PS3 will last ten years, not that it won't have a successor until ten years from now.

 

[LordNerevar]

Sony's claims are that PS3 will last ten years, not that it won't have a successor until ten years from now.

That makes a lot more sense
Thnx.

 

[Hazuki Ryu]

So ps3 was released what 6 years after ps2 if it repeats again we'll have ps4 in 5 years, on MS side of things i dont think they have a reason to release a console early specially if the console keeps selling this much hardware and games.

About the BC it would't make me chose a console that has it over a console that doesn't but i still consider it important and I'm not a casual gamer.What would you say if your HDDVD player wasn't able of playing dvd?
I just don't like the idea of having psone, ps2, ps3 and ps4 its just too much though i dont have ps3 and dont plan on getting one but you get my point i think.

 

[Mobius1aic]

In 6 years time I'll be using my Radeon HD 9700 (Geforce ran out of numbers so sue me ok? ^^). I will be playing direct X 13 games, and yet, you think that the PS4 won't be out by then? The PS3 in 6 years time will be in EOL (end of life) phase, think cheap, small, everywhere. It will be to the PS4 what the PS2 is to the PS3.

No console can expect to last 8-10 years, especially not with graphics power doubling every 18 months and Cpu power doubling still every 24 months. Software optimizations can only take you so far.

Consoles are obsolete before they hit the streets. The best example of this is the GPU in the PS3. It was already superceded by the G80 before it hit the streets.

Isn't G80 about ~2x as the G72? That's not a supercede, that's shear dominance. Even in the light of pure optimization and Cell pre-processing/co-processing G80 rocked the gaming world along with its G92 brethren.

 

[Squilliam]

Isn't G80 about ~2x as the G72? That's not a supercede, that's shear dominance. Even in the light of pure optimization and Cell pre-processing/co-processing G80 rocked the gaming world along with its G92 brethren.

Well yes but I was hoping to avoid a PC vs console war. At least wait while the PC's secretly build up in strength for one final blow to end all consoles.