New sony online gaming survey....

[scooby_dooby]

A HDD and tight price control are almost at odds with one another, though. There is no such thing as a "cheap" HDD, really, 20GB is already probably as cheap as you'll get (a lower capacity disk won't cost MS anything less - HDD prices tend to bottom out, not continually go down with lower capacity).

Not really. Analysts estimate the HDD costs ~$25 to produce, at $60/hdd they are still make >100% profit on every HDD sold.

 

[scooby_dooby]

My point is, though, that one or two gigs is enough to give access to downloadable content. Or accomodate a MMORPG. Arguably less, even..

Not in any meaningful way, you would be constantly swapping for space. Demo's range from 500mb to 1 GB, a 3 minutes HD movie file is like 400mb. Then you need space for game saves, and online patches.

Sure it could work, but it would be a big PITA. You need at least 5gb+ before it would be a nice experience, 10gb+ is ideal for everything short of long video files(which conceivably could reside on the Vista or MCE machine anyways, just like recorded TV)

 

[Sis]

I dont suppose you tried a wireless usb KB? Id like to get a nice, small, wireless one to use.

That's actually what I used. I plugged the wireless receiver usb dongle in and the keyboard just worked. Actually surprised me quite a bit, to be honest.

 

[scooby_dooby]

That's actually what I used. I plugged the wireless receiver usb dongle in and the keyboard just worked. Actually surprised me quite a bit, to be honest.

OXM did a little USB feature this month, tried all kinds of stuff from mini usb-fishtanks, to a coffe warmers that acted as a usb hub, almost everything worked. I'm surprised the wireless worked as well, that's sweet.

 

[Sis]

My point is, though, that one or two gigs is enough to give access to downloadable content. Or accomodate a MMORPG. Arguably less, even.

I agree with the line of thinking around moving away from HDD and towards the solid state storage (or I guess I can just leave it open and describe it as "something you plug into the USB port). It's disappointing that I cannot do this with my 360 though I have heard that security considerations play a big factor here. For example, I know the Halo 2 downloaded maps were constantly being modified and used for cheating. Sony would have a similar problem if they indeed allowed any removable storage device to be used.

 

[Titanio]

Not really. Analysts estimate the HDD costs ~$25 to produce, at $60/hdd they are still make >100% profit on every HDD sold.

Which means they could reduce the retail price on the peripheral, but the cost to MS to bundle it in a pack isn't likely to decrease substantially or at all. The suggestion was that they offer a "core" pack in the future with a "cheap HDD", but I don't really think they're going to get much or any cheaper, and dropping capacity won't yield them savings (similar to how MS started putting higher capacity HDDs in the original Xbox and limiting the useable size for the OS, because it was as cheap - and presumably easier - to source those than the original 8GB discs).

Not in any meaningful way, you would be constantly swapping for space. Demo's range from 500mb to 1 GB, a 3 minutes HD movie file is like 400mb. Then you need space for game saves, and online patches.

Sure it could work, but it would be a big PITA. You need at least 5gb+ before it would be a nice experience, 10gb+ is ideal for everything short of long video files(which conceivably could reside on the Vista or MCE machine anyways, just like recorded TV)

I don't disagree, but I'm talking about the barrier to entry, not barrier to comfort

Oh, and about general media (videos, photos, music) - there may the possibility for moving that off your stick to a local drive on the network as you suggest, if PS3 was DLNA compliant, for example. I don't know about doing the same for game saves or demo executables and the like..but at least it might give you more breathing room if you were working off a stick.

 

[expletive]

Well, I don't think PS3 HDDs will be quite so expensive, per gigabyte..

My point is, though, that one or two gigs is enough to give access to downloadable content. Or accomodate a MMORPG. Arguably less, even.

I'm not sure theres a single one i know of that currently fits in 1G of space.

It may well become reasonable to expect a certain minimum amount of capacity as mem stick prices decrease, and capacity grows. There are a couple of things Sony could do here too - like mandating a minimum capacity for use with PS3, or even bundling a memory stick (say, 512MB?) with every system, effecting a minimum capacity across all systems. Or they could take a MS route, and do a pack with a HDD or large capacity memory stick (despite Harrison's personal views on that - I mean, they're doing that with PSP at the moment anyway).

Bundling a memory stick of 512 doesnt solve any problems or insure anything for online content providers outside of the fact that users will be able to save games, its just not enough.

Yes, if they pack in a HD early on and a majority of units sell with a HD then that would be the same model as the 360, and would be good, which is what i said in the first place.

I dont see them packing in anythign at this point becuase of the cost of the console as it stands today, i cant see how they can afford to lose any more per unit, or go over $399.

The idea is that developers and content providers can put their finger on the installed base of HDs for the 360. They can say "ok 3 million have been sold, 80% are premiums and another 200,000 HDs ahve been sold, thats gives us an installed base of 2.6 million HDs". They can make decisions based on that. With your scneario of memory cards etc theres no way for content providers or developers to know who has what and how much when it comes to storage.

 

[expletive]

That's actually what I used. I plugged the wireless receiver usb dongle in and the keyboard just worked. Actually surprised me quite a bit, to be honest.

Cool! Which one?

 

[Sethamin]

Not really. Analysts estimate the HDD costs ~$25 to produce, at $60/hdd they are still make >100% profit on every HDD sold.

As the saying (from someone) goes, "HDD don't get cheaper, then just get bigger". What this is supposed to mean is that because of all the moving parts, HDDs will never get cheaper than a certain minimum threshold, and therefore you can't price reduce your box past a certain amount because the HDD starts to dominate the cost. Constrast this to any silicon, which price reduces fantastically. I believe that's what Titiano was referring to.

 

[Titanio]

I'm not sure theres a single one i know of that could fit in 1G of space.

WoW is off my hard-drive now, but IIRC, my save folder was ~400MB. And I'm not sure how efficient a PC MMORPG like that would be about storage, given that it could assume so much (i.e. you could maybe do better if you really needed to).

Makes me wonder, in fact, if Sony gave cheap access to certain publishers, to cheap mem sticks to bundle with certain games (like a MMORPG) to guarantee storage. It's definitely a possibility, i think.

Bundling a memory stick of 512 doesnt solve any problems of insure anything for online conten t providers outside of the fact that users will be able to save games.

For music, video downloads (non-HD),"Arcade" style games it'd be a reasonably ok amount to work with, or at least to get you going.

I dont see them acking in anythign at this point becuase of the cost of the console as it stands today, i cant see how they can afford to lose any more per unit, or go over $399.

We shall see. Mem sticks are probably dirt cheap for sony to manufacture.

The idea is that developers and content providers can put their finger on the installed base of HDs for the 360. They can say "ok 3 million have been sold, 80% are premiums and another 200,000 HDs ahve been sold, thats gives us an installed base of 2.6 million HDs". They can make decisions based on that. With your scneario of memory cards etc theres no way for content providers or developers to know who has what and how much when it comes to storage.

Well, they could look at trends in mem stick sales. If 90% of mem stick sales in 06 were 512MB or greater, and so on, if might give them an idea. While its nice to be able to have perfect statistics, if a certain amount of capacity is cheaply acquirable, devs may confidently/reasonably expect it.

 

[scooby_dooby]

I don't really think they're going to get much or any cheaper, and dropping capacity won't yield them savings

why though? why do you think it won't get cheaper? They're making an estimated 300-400% profit on these things. They have tons of headroom to drop price, and maintain profitability, without having to worry about reducing manufacturing costs.

No offense, but it seems kinda like wishful thinking on your part, the $100 pricetage is very high and will almost certainly drop in price at some point. Once the deman goes down, the early adopters are done, and it begins being marketed to the cost conscious consumer, the price will go down quite a bit I think.

Currently it's 1/3 of the price of the whole system already very expensive, if they drop the core to $200 there just no way they can sell the HDD for $100, it would be 1/2 the costs of the whole system, makes no sense.

 

[Sis]

Cool! Which one?

The Gyration keyboard. I was mainly looking for something to reliably use for HTPC gaming but it actually sounds about what you are looking for (namely, tiny keyboard, wireless, and works with 360). The mouse actually behaves like the Revolution controller. I've been trying it with an FPS and it takes some getting used to, but it's kind of cool. Pricey, though, at US$130. I've only had it for 2 days now, so all I can say for certain is that it did indeed work with the 360.

 

[scooby_dooby]

As the saying (from someone) goes, "HDD don't get cheaper, then just get bigger". What this is supposed to mean is that because of all the moving parts, HDDs will never get cheaper than a certain minimum threshold, and therefore you can't price reduce your box past a certain amount because the HDD starts to dominate the cost.

it's not about cost reducing, the cost is already extremely low. It's about lowering the retail price on an extremely overpriced component, which is not only possible, it's very likely.

 

[Titanio]

why though? why do you think it won't get cheaper? They're making an estimated 300-400% profit on these things. They have tons of headroom to drop price, and maintain profitability, without having to worry about reducing manufacturing costs.

No offense, but it seems kinda like wishful thinking on your part, the $100 pricetage is very high and will almost certainly drop in price at some point. Once the deman goes down, the early adopters are done, and it begins being marketed to the cost conscious consumer, the price will go down quite a bit I think.

Currently it's 1/3 of the price of the whole system already very expensive, if they drop the core to $200 there just no way they can sell the HDD for $100, it would be 1/2 the costs of the whole system, makes no sense.

You're missing my point entirely.

The periperhal price could drop - as you say, they're starting at an exorbinant $100 from which to work down - but the cost for MS to source/manufacture, likely won't. And the latter is what affects bundling and pack configurations, which is what I was addressing. The proposal was that MS would come out with a core pack with a "cheap HDD". My point is, the HDD won't get any cheaper, in all likelihood, so it would remain a restriction on their ability to push the price down. That same pack would cost the same to MS as the premium (in its current configuration) would.

Here's another way of thinking about it: A X360 core pack with a 10GB HDD probably wouldn't be much or any cheaper for MS to put together than the current premium system. Beyond a certain capacity, HDD costs do not continue to scale further downward. That point is probably around the 20GB mark (which is probably why MS also went with that capacity for the HDD).

 

[scooby_dooby]

You're missing my point entirely.

The periperhal price could drop - as you say, they're starting at an exorbinant $100 from which to work down - but the cost for MS to source/manufacture, likely won't. And the latter is what affects bundling and pack configurations, which is what I was addressing. The proposal was that MS would come out with a core pack with a "cheap HDD". My point is, the HDD won't get any cheaper, in all likelihood, so it would remain a restriction on their ability to push the price down. That same pack would cost the same to MS as the premium (in its current configuration) would.

Here's another way of thinking about it: A X360 core pack with a 10GB HDD probably wouldn't be much or any cheaper for MS to put together than the current premium system. Beyond a certain capacity, HDD costs do not continue to scale further downward. That point is probably around the 20GB mark (which is probably why MS also went with that capacity for the HDD).

Ahh, you mistook my statement to say that there would be a core BUNDLED with HDD. That's not what I meant, after all, it's hardly the core package if it comes with a HDD is it?

What I meant was, when we do see the emergence of the budget core package <$200, they will also have a much more reasonably priced HDD that you can purchase as a peripheral. Point being, that if the price of the HDD is low enough(i.e. within $20-30 of the MC) then that would ensure that a large majority of consumers end up with a HDD, even if they bought the core.

As I said, if they do stick with the $100 price, then I can see the install-base of HDD's plummeting as the core packages become the only package. I don't see this happening though, I see the premium being phased out, and the price on the HDD's being dropped signifigantly.

 

[Titanio]

Ahh, you mistook my statement to say that there would be a core BUNDLED with HDD. That's not what I meant, after all, it's hardly the core package if it comes with a HDD is it?

Sorry, now I see what you mean. But this situation, in terms of HDD penetration, wouldn't be so different from that which Sony would be in, if the HDD is always optional, unless you think MS's prices would be cheaper. Sure, MS would have the initial contribution of the high HDD-owning early base, but that contribution would become smaller and smaller as the userbase grew.

 

[scooby_dooby]

Sorry, now I see what you mean. But this situation, in terms of HDD penetration, wouldn't be so different from that which Sony would be in, if the HDD is always optional, unless you think MS's prices would be cheaper. Sure, MS would have the initial contribution of the high HDD-owning early base, but that contribution would become smaller and smaller as the userbase grew.

Your right Sony could do a similar thing, the question really is WILL they?

With XBLive MS is providing much incentive for users to purchase the HDD, demo's, trailers, episodic content, improved load times, XB Arcade, and the list goes on.

Sony could offer all this stuff as well, it's certainly possible, but given their track record I don't see how plausible it is.

So it remains to be seen what Sony's strategy is with the HDD, will it be available at launch, will they offer the sort of downloads that make a HDD appealing? will they do anyting to build an initial base(like the premium package) so developers can release episodic content to an existing userbase? What will the pricepoint be? All these questions remain open...

Also if they do allow you to use any removable storage medium you like, that would probably mean the HDD never gets a solid footing since there are so many cheap alternatives available. MS's plan only works because the MC can be made to look like a horrible value, driving HDD sales.

 

[Titanio]

Your right Sony could do a similar thing, the question really is WILL they?

With XBLive MS is providing much incentive for users to purchase the HDD, demo's, trailers, episodic content, improved load times, XB Arcade, and the list goes on.

Sony could offer all this stuff as well, it's certainly possible, but given their track record I don't see how plausible it is.

Track record? This stuff, or at least on this scale, is a first for MS too.

And again..PSP/Connect/March....

Also if they do allow you to use any removable storage medium you like, that would probably mean the HDD never gets a solid footing since there are so many cheap alternatives available. MS's plan only works because the MC can be made to look like a horrible value, driving HDD sales.

The removeable media options are a lot cheaper and higher capacity than MS's, but versus a hard drive there'd still be little competition in terms of value. A 1GB mem stick may be $30-40 when PS3 ships in the US, but a 60GB HDD probably would be $80-100 (current market rates for a 2.5"), so..

 

[scooby_dooby]

Track record? This stuff, or at least on this scale, is a first for MS too.

And again..PSP/Connect/March....

Track record with HDD support, and any other add-ons for Sony has been terrible. They typically promise things and never deliver.

The removeable media options are a lot cheaper and higher capacity than MS's, but versus a hard drive there'd still be little competition in terms of value. A 1GB mem stick may be $30-40 when PS3 ships in the US, but a 60GB HDD probably would be $80-100 (current market rates for a 2.5"), so..

Why 1GB? It's excessive, Concievably a consumer could purchase a 128mb stick for a very low price, and never consider the HDD since it's so much more expensive.

Also, there has to be a content being delivered in order to make the HDD desireable, otherwise it's nothing more than a big memory card. This is what marketplace delivers, and it remains to be seen if Sony will offer equivalent content(demo's, trailers, arcade games, episodic content etc)

 

[Titanio]

Track record with HDD support, and any other add-ons for Sony has been terrible. They typically promise things and never deliver.

This isn't entirely true. The PS2 HDD situation was a mess, but I think it's reasonable to expect things will be different with PS3's.

I'd invite you to look at the PSP experience thusfar. New features appear, often without announcement or fanfare, in firmware updates. PSP Connect has been announced in advance, but I'm pretty sure it will come The kind of things we're talking about - downloadable content - also isn't just about HDD support, but all storage support (as we're seeing with PSP services, for a system that doesn't have a HDD).

Why 1GB? It's excessive, Concievably a consumer could purchase a 128mb stick for a very low price, and never consider the HDD since it's so much more expensive.

128MB might be hard to get..that asides, 1GB isn't excessive for the types of usage we're talking about here.

Also, there has to be a content being delivered in order to make the HDD desireable, otherwise it's nothing more than a big memory card. This is what marketplace delivers, and it remains to be seen if Sony will offer equivalent content(demo's, trailers, arcade games, episodic content etc)

Well, again, look at the experience with PSP. We've had downloadable content with Wipeout Pure, for example. There'll be a media-purchase service in March, including "games" (although I'd agree it's best to wait and see what THAT means). On a wider note, Sony is in a very strong position in terms of content they could make available in a download service, covering all media. PSP Connect will be a taster - you can expect the same on PS3, but more content specifically for PS3 obviously.