New HDMI Standards and Blu-ray Security Delaying PS3

[Bobbler]

I wouldn't exactly call speculation from Digitimes proof of anything.

Who knows though... I think it's going to be late 06 til the states see it anyways and either really late 06 or early 07 before Europe sees it.

Either way the coming few months should be rather exciting (GDC in only a month, and there should be a bit of info coming from that) and then E3 (at that point all the details should be exposed).

 

[scificube]

I'm watching CNBC and MSNBC and OMG!!!...the dysinformation is strong with them!

Looks like MS is jumping all over Sony's latest words and trying to make the PS3 out to be a destined failure.

As I listened...

Costs hundreds and hundreds of dollars...
no online...
Cell chip doomed...lots of problems with it...
Sony can't reign in the blue-ray group etc...
technology doesn't matter...devs aren't using what they have already!...
could be delayed and entire year....

I'm sorry but this is just wow stuff to me...I mean I can't help but think they're pulling stuff out their rear ends or just spouting what MS told them to say.

Sony had better say/do something soon because MS is trying to sway public opinion very hard now and it doesn't seem they are above saying WHATEVER to get the job done. CNBC is talking directly to investors like the PS3 would bring you the plague or something.

 

[mckmas8808]

I'm watching CNBC and MSNBC and OMG!!!...the dysinformation is strong with them!

Looks like MS is jumping all over Sony's latest words and trying to make the PS3 out to be a destined failure.

As I listened...

Costs hundreds and hundreds of dollars...
no online...
Cell chip doomed...lots of problems with it...
Sony can't reign in the blue-ray group etc...
technology doesn't matter...devs aren't using what they have already!...
could be delayed and entire year....

I'm sorry but this is just wow stuff to me...I mean I can't help but think they're pulling stuff out their rear ends or just spouting what MS told them to say.

Sony had better say/do something soon because MS is trying to sway public opinion very hard now and it doesn't seem they are above saying WHATEVER to get the job done. CNBC is talking directly to investors like the PS3 would bring you the plague or something.

Why do you keep saying MS is doing some of this? I haven't seen or heard of one report or interview where MS says anything about this crazyness.

 

[ROG27]

I'm watching CNBC and MSNBC and OMG!!!...the dysinformation is strong with them!

Looks like MS is jumping all over Sony's latest words and trying to make the PS3 out to be a destined failure.

As I listened...

Costs hundreds and hundreds of dollars...
no online...
Cell chip doomed...lots of problems with it...
Sony can't reign in the blue-ray group etc...
technology doesn't matter...devs aren't using what they have already!...
could be delayed and entire year....

I'm sorry but this is just wow stuff to me...I mean I can't help but think they're pulling stuff out their rear ends or just spouting what MS told them to say.

Sony had better say/do something soon because MS is trying to sway public opinion very hard now and it doesn't seem they are above saying WHATEVER to get the job done. CNBC is talking directly to investors like the PS3 would bring you the plague or something.

That is just sad and pathetic. I wouldn't be surprised if Sony still managed to launch in one territory (presumably Japan) in May/June...like I've been saying all along. Worst comes to worse they will launch near simultaneously in both Japan and NA around September/October and wait a few months to launch in EU.

I'm calling it now--mark my words...what I say right there wraps everything into one neat little package and covers all the realistic possibilities.

 

[Tap In]

I'm watching CNBC and MSNBC and OMG!!!...the dysinformation is strong with them!

Looks like MS is jumping all over Sony's latest words and trying to make the PS3 out to be a destined failure.

As I listened...

Costs hundreds and hundreds of dollars...
no online...
Cell chip doomed...lots of problems with it...
Sony can't reign in the blue-ray group etc...
technology doesn't matter...devs aren't using what they have already!...
could be delayed and entire year....

I'm sorry but this is just wow stuff to me...I mean I can't help but think they're pulling stuff out their rear ends or just spouting what MS told them to say.

Sony had better say/do something soon because MS is trying to sway public opinion very hard now and it doesn't seem they are above saying WHATEVER to get the job done. CNBC is talking directly to investors like the PS3 would bring you the plague or something.

business as usual for most competitors IMO

 

[DuckThor Evil]

i think mckmas meant to say "the last day of spring", which technically is june 21st.

June 21st is not technically spring, because umm... it's MIDSUMMER!

 

[scificube]

Why do you keep saying MS is doing some of this? I haven't seen or heard of one report or interview where MS says anything about this crazyness.

I have no proof. It is an inference on my behalf.

Is what I'm saying really so crazy an idea? --> MS<---NBC...C-->NBC<--which works closely with MS.

Call me crazy then, but that's how I see it.

 

[ROG27]

I have no proof. It is an inference on my behalf.

Is what I'm saying really so crazy an idea? --> MS<---NBC...C-->NBC<--which works closely with MS.

Call me crazy then, but that's how I see it.

Not so ironically, Merrill Lynch has a heavily vested interest in Microsoft and NOT Sony. This seems peculilarly coordinated with ML kicking off the shitstorm and "MS"NBC cleaning up.

 

[Joe DeFuria]

I wouldn't exactly call speculation from Digitimes proof of anything.

I agree. There's too much rumors in the wind for there not to be some truth to it. This is where my "common sense" kicks in and basically tells me this:

* Sony has been mum on launch...though they used to be "steadfastedly" sticking to "we're launching on time spring '06".

* Playable game demos have been a no show, despite the fact that they were expected by now.

* "Final" dev kits are rumored to just starting to trickle out...with some rumors that they aren't technically "final" yet.

* I've read various reports of Sony softening their stance on "launch"...anywhere to "still targetting Spring for one territory", to "Sony will postpone launch". Other rumors point to an '07 launch for Europe...

It all just adds up to me for "not going to make spring." Let me put it this way: I am very confident that Sony is not confident they'll make spring. And if Sony is not confident they'll make it...you can bet they won't. (That attitude goes for any company, not picking on Sony in particular here).

Either way the coming few months should be rather exciting (GDC in only a month, and there should be a bit of info coming from that) and then E3 (at that point all the details should be exposed).

Agreed. We may get some leaks at GDC as far as expected availability goes...but in all honesty...Sony is going to be as optimistic as possible with the devs, so I won't particularly trust unofficial info coming out of GDC as it relates to launch dates. It won't be until E3 that we get any "real" launch info to hang our hat on.

E3 is going to be the big "put up or shut up" time for Sony. They have GOT to release definitive launch plans and show some playable games. I have to agree with the poster in some other thread...it's not MS that should be bringing diapers to E3. (Sony has more to lose than MS does, IMO).

 

[drpepper]

Here's a question. Who here actually cares if it's delayed? And what would you tolerate in terms of the amount of time of it being delayed. Honestly, i wouldn't care if it was delayed till early 07 for NA. But that's just me. It will be released when it's ready.

In the grand scheme of things, we'll all get to eventually play MGS4 and Vision Gran Turismo in due time. So what is the worry? A launch 1 quarter late isn't the end of the world by any stretch of the imagination. 360 users have to put up with a lot of delayed games, but they all know, eventually they'll get to play those games. Why worry? Be happy...

 

[ROG27]

Here's a question. Who here actually cares if it's delayed? And what would you tolerate in terms of the amount of time of it being delayed. Honestly, i wouldn't care if it was delayed till early 07 for NA. But that's just me. It will be released when it's ready.

In the grand scheme of things, we'll all get to eventually play MGS4 and Vision Gran Turismo in due time. So what is the worry? A launch 1 quarter late isn't the end of the world by any stretch of the imagination. 360 users have to put up with a lot of delayed games, but they all know, eventually they'll get to play those games. Why worry? Be happy...

The high likelihood that it will be out in NA in a bit more than 6 months time is good enough for me...whether or not they will ship in Japan or not in Spring I don't really care about. I don't really see what the fuss is about because I guarantee the launch plans for NA will not budge regardless of hold ups from blu-ray/hdmi specs because they were orginally slated for fall 2006 in the first place. If Sony launches in Japan around the same time, then so what? Japan will wait patiently...they certainly aren't going to give in and buy Xbox360's...they'll just keep playing their DSs and PSPs for the few interim months.

Whether or not Revolution sales will eat into PS3 sales in Japan is another question that's not so clear, as I see Revolution majorly kicking some ass this go-around.

 

[Joe DeFuria]

The high likelihood that it will be out in NA in a bit more than 6 months time is good enough for me...whether or not they will ship in Japan or not in Spring I don't really care about.

Except that, if Japan is delayed such that there is a "simultaneous" Japan / NA launch, Sony will likely be risking similar "availability issues" that MS had launching in major regions simultaneously. That is, a similar number of units available world-wide as any other launch, but less per region. So if you are one to argue that MS's launch was a disaster, Sony would run a similar risk.

I personally don't care when Sony gets their console out. Tomorrow or 2008. I just like to see people use common sense when trying to predict these things rather than put on the rose colored glasses.

If Sony launches in Japan around the same time, then so what? Japan will wait patiently...

Nothing like contempt for your customers, right?

 

[ROG27]

Except that, if Japan is delayed such that there is a "simultaneous" Japan / NA launch, Sony will likely be risking similar "availability issues" that MS had launching in major regions simultaneously. That is, a similar number of units available world-wide as any other launch, but less per region. So if you are one to argue that MS's launch was a disaster, Sony would run a similar risk.

I personally don't care when Sony gets their console out. Tomorrow or 2008. I just like to see people use common sense when trying to predict these things rather than put on the rose colored glasses.



Nothing like contempt for your customers, right?

Ah...the glass is always at the half-way mark...but is it half-empty or is it half-full? I'll say it's half-full...life's lessons have told me being a cynical bastard doesn't keep me (or anyone for that matter) happy.

As for availibility issues..there are always those at a console launch. But say they did do a near simultaneous launch in the fall for Japan and NA. This is why it would be different than a Xbox360 launch:

-XBox 360 was near simultaneous in 3 territories...Sony would only do it for 2.
-XBox 360 only first started being manufactured and assembled 2 to 3 months prior to launch.
-The delay is most-likely for firmware upgradeable security features for the bluray drive (most likely on the software end of things from the rumors flying) and HDMI standards (audio/video output). I don't see why they can't stockpile many of the other components of the PS3 in the meantime, ramping up production in those other key areas while the other components are on hold. Then, they will shift the manufacturing resources to the delayed components once they are finalized.
-In the above scenario, many more PS3s will be available at launch because of available, shelf-ready components once it comes time for assembly and longer initial manufacturing time prior to launch...meaning a greater pool of total launch consoles, which will then be divided equally amongst launch territories NA/Japan.

I'm taking a wild guess here, but I think Sony is manufacturing parts as we speak.

 

[Joe DeFuria]

Ah...the glass is always at the half-way mark...but is it half-empty or is it half-full? I'll say it's half-full...life's lessons have told me being a cynical bastard doesn't keep me (or anyone for that matter) happy.

Life's lessons have told me that being overly optimisitic in the face of reality doesn't keep me or anyone else for that matter happy. Just wild and irrational mood swings when disappointment ultimately surfaces.

As for availibility issues..there are always those at a console launch.

Agreed.

But say they did do a near simultaneous launch in the fall for Japan and NA. This is why it would be different than a Xbox360 launch:

-XBox 360 was near simultaneous in 3 territories...Sony would only do it for 2.

Japan was basically a non-territory for MS. How many units were allocated to Japan? From a volume perspective MS did two major territories (NA. and Europe.). We're also talking about Sony doing 2. (Japan and NA).

-XBox 360 only first started being manufactured and assembled 2 to 3 months prior to launch.

This will be different for Sony?

-The delay is most-likely for firmware upgradeable security features for the bluray drive (most likely on the software end of things from the rumors flying) and HDMI standards (audio/video output).

Possibly. It's also possible, if not likely, that Sony will have manufacturing issues all the same. Like any other console launch.

-In the above scenario, many more PS3s will be available at launch because of available, shelf-ready components once it comes time for assembly and longer initial manufacturing time prior to launch...

Don't see how PS3 has any more "shelf ready" components than XBox, in fact I'd say the opposite. And longer initial manufacturing is pure guesswork on your part.

 

[ROG27]

Life's lessons have told me that being overly optimisitic in the face of reality doesn't keep me or anyone else for that matter happy. Just wild and irrational mood swings when disappointment ultimately surfaces.

Nothing really wild on my end here. Like I said before...I never expected, nor cared about spring launch of the console in a territory other than my own (NA). Plus a dual territory launch was reported by Next-gen.biz just a week or so ago. But Joe, your "reality" also happens to be speculation on your part...just negative speculation as opposed to optomistic speculation.



Agreed.

Yes.


Japan was basically a non-territory for MS. How many units were allocated to Japan? From a volume perspective MS did two major territories (NA. and Europe.). We're also talking about Sony doing 2. (Japan and NA).

Um...100,000 to 200,000 units out of approximately 800,000 initially shipped is not miniscule at all.


This will be different for Sony?

Who knows. Hopefully.

Possibly. It's also possible, if not likely, that Sony will have manufacturing issues all the same. Like any other console launch.

Yeah...but if they have 6-8 months from this point to correct them (instead of 2-3)...I'd say chances are they will hammer out alot of problems well before launch.

Don't see how PS3 has any more "shelf ready" components than XBox, in fact I'd say the opposite. And longer initial manufacturing is pure guesswork on your part.

I'm referring to proprietary components manufactured specifically for PS3 being stockpiled and available for assembly (waiting on the shelf) when delayed components' specs have been finalised and all things are "go".

Your guess against longer initial manufacturing is guesswork on your part, as well.

You see. Neither of us has any solid info. So, I could be right, or you could be right. It's really a coin toss at this point.

 

[Joe DeFuria]

You see. Neither of us has any solid info. So, I could be right, or you could be right. It's really a coin toss at this point.

Except that with a lack of "solid info", my guess is that things will go "as typical." (When they launch, there will be up to 1 million units to go around for all intended lanuch territories.) Your guess appears that things will go "better than typical."

Your rationale for things going better than typical is a bunch of optimisitic gobbledegook. I am being neither optimisitc nor pessimistic.

 

[ROG27]

Except that with a lack of "solid info", my guess is that things will go "as typical." (When they launch, there will be up to 1 million units to go around for all intended lanuch territories.) Your guess appears that things will go "better than typical."

Your rationale for things going better than typical is a bunch of optimisitic gobbledegook. I am being neither optimisitc nor pessimistic.

Typical...nothing is typical in an industry which is growing and changing. Was the XBox 360 launch typical? Is Sony's quietness typical? Is the Revolution controller typical. Was the DS initial launch typical?

You know about as much as nothing. History tells us nothing, especially in rapidly changing environments.

Here is a link to the Next-gen.biz article on the dual territory September launch:

http://www.next-gen.biz/index.php?option=com_content&task=view&id=2270&Itemid=35

Excerpt:

September launch

Developer sources are also suggesting that PlayStation 3 is currently scheduled to launch in September. A launch games release schedule seen by our sources states a September launch. Although the schedule does not explicitly state a hardware launch date, nor a launch territory, we understand Japan and U.S will both see the machine in September.

 

[Joe DeFuria]

Typical...nothing is typical in an industry which is growing and changing. Was the XBox 360 launch typical?

Nnumber of total units on hand at launch? I believe so.

Is Sony's quietness typical?

This long before launch? I believe so too.

Is the Revolution controller typical.

Is Nintendo doing unique things typical? Yes.

Here is a link to the Next-gen.biz article on the dual territory September launch:

How many units do you expect Sony to have on hand in total for a September launch?

Significantly higher than a million?

 

[Inane_Dork]

I'm watching CNBC and MSNBC and OMG!!!...the dysinformation is strong with them!

Looks like MS is jumping all over Sony's latest words and trying to make the PS3 out to be a destined failure.

IIRC, the news channels that MS is associated with routinely bash MS. Correct me if I'm wrong.

 

[ROG27]

Nnumber of total units on hand at launch? I believe so.

I wasn't referring to launch numbers, but they were not typical, as well, in a bad way (or good way depending on how you look at it). I'd say this was because the launch was rushed, but shooting out near 1 million consoles in that short period of time regardless is impressive. They have been limited supposedly because of shortages of GDDR ram manufactured outside of their control by a contracted German firm, whose product wasn't meeting MS's spec. Also, remember that MS does not have expertise in the manufacturing area. This is where Sony excels.


How many units do you expect Sony to have on hand in total for a September launch?

Significantly higher than a million?

I'd say approaching 2 million... approximately 1 million for each territory--given the timeframe if there is indeed a dual territory launch in the Septemberish neighborhood.

Does that answer your question?