MS only to ship 4.5-5.5 million by June 2006
- Thread starter dukmahsik
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Titanio said:
You are forgetting that MS is having shortages of supply even for it's launch. It could sell more than these numbers if it had the supply. Supply is the limiting factor in the first year, especially during a holiday launch.
I'll also point out here that within 9 months of the PS2 launch in Japan it was out in every region as well and had gone through the holiday shopping season in both the US and Europe, yet it still shipped less.
In fact, if you go by the high-end numbers by MS and assume the same production for the next 6 months then after a full year MS will have shipped more 360's than Sony shipped PS2's in it's first year.
The limit here is production, not available market.
Platon said:
They would not manufacture or ship as many consoles if they were launching in only one territory, you can be absolutely sure of that.
The size of your market and expected demand absolutely play a role in the numbers. As does
"manufacturability".
Powderkeg said:
I'm not forgetting that. I simply don't think they'd ship the same number of consoles in one territory as in three for the same period.
Powderkeg said:
Less than what? Shipments to the end of its first year was 6.4m.
Powderkeg said:
A year of being in 3 territories versus 1 year in Japan and 4-6 months in Europe/US for PS2. And you'd be talking about 0.4m more
Powderkeg said:
The market you're aiming at undoubtedly affects numbers. There is an upper limit on how much each market can take in a period. And again - you are not guaranteed for first Xm of sales immediately. People often say with regards to every system that for the first few months you'll sell as many as you can make, but this hasn't always been true, even in recent cases (e.g. PSP did not sell out immediately).
I'm also wondering about X360's manufacturability. The DVD drive ain't gonna hold it back. IBM claims it'll easily meet demand from MS. Xenos is, according to hints from here and elsewhere, producing good results. So where's the bottleneck? I don't think it's trivial, obviously, but someone made the point earlier, and it is likely true, that PS2s were easier to manufacture 9 months after its launch than at launch - but I wonder how much more difficult X360 is for its time vs that same PS2 9 months post-launch.
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Titanio said:
LOL. To be fair my ass. What a retarded ass comparision. Regardless of how many territories they are sold in, they are both still limited by how many they can produce, so theoretically they still would have sold the same amount in 6 months(xbox 360 is just spread out over multiple territories instead of all going to one territory.) All launch hardware has great sales.
mckmas8808
Legend
3roxor said:
I'd say by 2007 E3. I'd be surprised if this didn't happen.
Serenity Painted Death
Regular
PS3 will have a 20 million lead in Japan at least. Europe is almost as staunchly pro-Sony. U.S. might be close, but the overall war shouldn't be. I think anyone expecting anything else is in for a disappointment. I'm not even sure the U.S. is going to be very close once all is said and done.
Sony would have to make a mistake the caliber of Nintendo sticking with cartridges to be overturned in the span of a single generation. So far, at least, it seems they've avoided this. Absent this, it will take a constant chipping away by the competitors if they are to be beaten. Of course, Sony could just pull off something really stupid... who knows.
Sony would have to make a mistake the caliber of Nintendo sticking with cartridges to be overturned in the span of a single generation. So far, at least, it seems they've avoided this. Absent this, it will take a constant chipping away by the competitors if they are to be beaten. Of course, Sony could just pull off something really stupid... who knows.
Serenity Painted Death said:
Or having the cnosole t too high price. As they have mentioned, it seems that Sony this time will have fewer price dropes and far apart, and most mainstream byuers buy the consoles when they start going down in price, at a $400 or even $300 price point they will not be selling the boatloads of consoles they do now...
Platon said:
You're right. In fact, after all the reports around 1999 about the super high-end computer ala PS2, I must have been imagening those strategic price drops or the fact that they sold in millions while still remaining at the original price point for over a year, then later continued to sell despite a cheaper available Xbox...
Phil said:You're right. In fact, after all the reports around 1999 about the super high-end computer ala PS2, I must have been imagening those strategic price drops or the fact that they sold in millions while still remaining at the original price point for over a year, then later continued to sell despite a cheaper available Xbox...
Sony sold roughly 20 million of their 100 million sold(so far) at the original pricepoint. The vast majority however(over 80%), waited until a pricedrop. I think that's what he was saying.
Phil said:Considering that's more or less the entire userbase of the Xbox, I find that rather impressive...
It is impressive, but don't you think that going from 100 million sold consoles to 20 million wouldn be a huge blow to Sony? One that might even bring down the company to its knees? And don't forget that this time around the launch price might be even higher, will those 20 million buy it at $400?...
Platon said:
Where did that come from? Why would Sony only sell 20M PS3's?
Obviously selling only 20M PS3 will be a disaster for Sony, but is anyone really expecting that? The only thing that might cause that is if Sony can't supply enough working units, which is the only real problem they have.If Sony can put enough PS3's out there, they'll be just fine.
Who sais they will go from 100 to 20 million?
You obviously think that the launch price will be higher than what PS2 launched at. Fair enough - Considering though that 20 million people bought the PS2 at its highest selling price within the first 2 years seems to show that people are willing to pay. I don't really see your problem. Even at $400 the PS3 will sell and after it has sold 20 million units, strategic price reductions will ensure that casuals will continue to buy it. I really don't see what you're questioning.
As I said before though, if we were to believe many reports back in 1999, no one would have thought PS2 would launch at $299 in America.
If PS3 launches in fall of 2006 in America, I wouldn't expect it to be sold at over $299 simply because it'll be competing with an equally priced Xbox360. If it is launched in Spring however, a $399 wouldn't be far fetched IMO.
You obviously think that the launch price will be higher than what PS2 launched at. Fair enough - Considering though that 20 million people bought the PS2 at its highest selling price within the first 2 years seems to show that people are willing to pay. I don't really see your problem. Even at $400 the PS3 will sell and after it has sold 20 million units, strategic price reductions will ensure that casuals will continue to buy it. I really don't see what you're questioning.
As I said before though, if we were to believe many reports back in 1999, no one would have thought PS2 would launch at $299 in America.
If PS3 launches in fall of 2006 in America, I wouldn't expect it to be sold at over $299 simply because it'll be competing with an equally priced Xbox360. If it is launched in Spring however, a $399 wouldn't be far fetched IMO.
Phil said:
I know that what I said was extremely drastic, about the 20 million sold consoles thing. Even if they had the console at $400 through the whole console life cycle they would still sell more than 20 million, no doubt. However, I just want to point out that thie time things are different.
Last time they didn't have an xbox 360 to compete with at launch, which to tell you the truth I think is a bigger opponent than Dreamcast. SO they had more than a years headstart where they without a problem could sell at $299, I wonder how it will be now with the xbox 360 and maybe at a price of $400.
The other thing which I really can't get out of my head is that this time proportionally they have much more tech in their console, and I mean they sell their PSP for $299, how will they be able to have the PS3 for that price at launch? Of course they could if they took massive losses. They took losses for the PS2 so they will do it again for sure, but this time around they will be more heavy, so the question is if they can take it...
