Microsoft rumored to be buying...... [2020-04, 2020-07, 2020-11]

It wasn't three years. This deal developed really quickly and it could have actually have been 2 other companies that purchased Bethesda. MS was able to step in and make it happen by spending a bit more.

IMO I doubt there will be another company with the development teams and strong ip that goes for this little again. MS really got lucky

 

Bethesda is almost last of its kind.

 

I fully expect smaller companies to start to rise up and fill in the gaps but it will take years.

I mean remember even Zenimax is multiple smaller companies being brought together. I think we will see a few years of market consolidation as bigger companies buy smaller ones but then those companies will stop due to either failing or regulatory issues or what have you. Then we will get higher ups at those companies leave and form new small ones to have more control again.

 

The problem I see is that making AAA games now is more expensive than it was years ago when Bethesda was established. Now AAA is only possible under the wing of some bigger company.

 

Considering that rumour (don't know how to attach tweets so go with a topic)
https://www.resetera.com/threads/microsoft-looking-to-make-bethesda-size-acquisition.369570/

I wonder who that might be? Finally Sega?

 

But you don't have to make a AAA game out of the bat. The team behind the Medium (bloober ?) have been making AA games for a long time and just kept growing

I don't think anything is happening this quarter , they wont announce anything until Zenimax is completed and approved.

 

Do you think microsoft are only going after 'big' purchases going forward? or is there still a place for smaller acquisitions, like possibly someone like playtonic.


If they did acquire playtonic (as an example) do you think that they would wait until the zenimax deal is approved before acquiring them? I would imagine they might not be worried about smaller purchases affecting anything


Though I suppose why risk it for the sake of a few months.

 

Well, another person mentioned not to expect anything until the end of the year.

But I wonder what Bethesda sized means? Is it finally Sega? Or they will go bold and purchase Take Two? Or somebody else?

They can do it on change Like going after bigger deal, Phil decided to visit some eateries.

 

If bethesda sized means monetary value then as far as I can tell the closest publisher price wise to $7.5B, atleast today is square enix, who has a market cap of $7.1B. I could see Square Enix being willing to sell, they haven't had the best of luck in recent years with their more western focused developers, tomb raider has largely performed under expectations, the avengers game seems to be a write off.

nevermind I just saw that capcom has a market cap of $7.4B, so I suppose that is closer.

of course that doesnt include any premium that would have to be paid, so maybe a more realistic price point to look at is $5-6B to account for the premium.


just having a quick look SEGA is $3.9B currently

 

I've posted what i've heard. I think MS is still pursuing other purchases its just not every deal that will go as fast as bethesda did.

I think larger purchases than 10B will likely wait until after game pass establishes itself. They could prove me wrong however. But droping 30-40b on take 2 or 60b on ea will be a big big commitment to game pass. With EA I think a lot of their current worth is tied up in sports games. As much as Ultima , Wing Commander and comand and conquer shaped my youth I doubt many people really care about those franchises much anymore and even if they did MS would have to build teams from scratch to really make use of EA's dead IP.

Take 2 could be a big play. Putting GTA 6 exclusive to game pass and steam would be a big get for the platform. I don't like GTA to be honest however Bioshock is fun , max payne , xcom and of course civ are kinda my jam. Their market cap is close to $20b but with the premium MS would have to buy back the shares for your looking at 30-40B and thats if news doesn't leak out and cause prices to skyrocket or other companies to come in bid.

Zenimax was different because it was private , nothing had to be announced until the deal was finalized

 

I do not think that SE would want to be sold to MS, considering they ties to Sony.

It is a possibility but they are recently working close to Nintendo.

But T2 is a public company so the news will come out no? I do wonder if it is possible to do GameStop for shares of public company and if anybody would decide to do that just to prevent the purchase.

Sega is the safest bet.

 

I suppose even just beyond building up game pass the larger the company the less likely it is for them to be acquired, sony in all likelihood could have afforded the $7.5B for zenimax, even if it was more than the $5B that they were rumoured to be offering, but theres no chance that they would go for take 2. Similiarly, amazon 'only' made 11.6B in 2019, I can imagine shareholders not being happy if amazon spent 3+ years of profits on someone like take 2

 

How is it possible? They had almost hundred billion in a quarter revenue no?

 

I don't know, but I've read that amazon likes to reinvest a lot of its earnings.
And Blue Origin is considered inside that 11B?

 

Blue's funded by Bezo's selling shares. It's not directly an Amazon company.

 

SEGA is apparently splitting into two companies both wholly owned by SEGA SAMMY, one for the pachinko machines and one for the gaming part of the company.
Sega is splitting its console/PC and pachinko businesses into 2 different companies owned by Sega Sammy | ResetEra

I bet SEGA is the next purchase, could be wrong of course.


More circumstantial evidence (admittedly this is 2+2=5)


From SEGA SAMMY's latest finance report







Seems awfully closely aligned with microsofts ambitions doesnt it?


Also Tosihiro Nagoshi is stepping down as SEGA Sammy CCO and is becoming a creative director at SEGA as part of a management restructure, I assume he would lead the SEGA division under microsoft.

Toshihiro Nagoshi stepping down as Sega CCO; now a Creative Director [up: part of management restructure] | ResetEra

 

Possibly Kuiper Systems, an Amazon subsidiary?. Building and and launching satellites is expensive.

 

Amazons entire goal in life is to grow and consume a myriad of industries, none of the investors care or want amazon to maximize profits right now, they want them to grow aggressively so they can establish market dominance in multiple industries, the insane profits come later. Its almost bad for amazon to make a profit right now, it means that they arent investing in growth as aggressively as they could

 

Is it possible for Sega's pachinko side to consolidate with Konami?

 

Yes its public but the longer it takes news to come out the less it can be built into the price of the stock. Think about it. If a take 2 share costs $1 right now and there are 100 shares MS could buy the company for $100 bucks plus a premium that is decided. Yes once the deal broke some people would buy the stock for sure and it will slowly go up but the price point was announced so your not going to pay more than the premium MS is paying. But if news breaks before the deal is formalized and shares shoot up to $10 a stock well the offer would have to be adjusted before its agreed upon . At least thats how I understand it

You have to weigh potential vs cost. Bethesda gets you successful franchises from now that are fully owned by MS now. So DOOM , Elder Scrolls and Fallout. But you get some smaller hits like wolfienstien and rage. These titles are always owned by you. You can put them on xbox for pc and the system and game pass . You can keep releasing to steam also and you can even do Nintendo switch if you want or decide to stick to keep gamings on the playstation also. But its your choice as the company. MS can really do whatever they want with it.

But now you buy EA right ? Well what happens if NFL and NHL and Fifa don't want to renew contracts ?