We're both guessing here, not being able to look at the textures, shaders or light setups.
And there's no factual evidence to support the opinion some of us have, that there's been some grapchical downgrades since the first techdemo, either.
So, I think we can go on with this theoretical discussion without offending each other... right?
My problem with the banding is that they'd need to use 8-bit per color shaders to get such effects (remember the original Halo?) and even then it's very very extreme.
Shading painted into the texture... take a look at the clothes of this guy:
http://images.playsyde.com/gallery/public/4361/899_0013.jpg
Shirt and pants clearly have it. Snake's suit is very different so the effect may not be this evident.
http://images.playsyde.com/gallery/public/4361/899_0008.jpg
http://images.playsyde.com/gallery/public/4361/899_0002.jpg
Compare the bolts or whatever on the suit near the lower end of his delts and the area right above his elbow. The colors look almost exactly the same, yet there seems to be some difference in the main light's position.
Please note: I don't want to say that they've completely dropped any dynamic lights.
What I think might be going on is that they have dynamic lights and normal mapping and speculars too going on in there, but they've found that more than one light source is too taxing for what they're doing, or that they'd need too many light sources to get the look that they want (remember Doom 3?).
So they go with 1-2 lights and constant ambient light for the areas that don't get any direct light. This would make normal mapped models completely flat so they decided to paint some shading into the diffuse texture. There's nothing bad about it, many people do it even in offline CG.
Again, the point is that I'm trying to find out what the difference might be between the announcement techdemo material and these new images. Some people do think that there's a difference, and so far I haven't really seen any other explanations other than 'different art direction'.
and no, it's not the same as your diffuse map, not in the phong reflection model used widely today
No one would really notice the difference between using an occlusion map and a diffuse texture with the occlusion baked into it.
Not that there's any strict science for occlusion as it is a big big hack. We can use the occlusion pass to multiply the enviroment light pass only, or we can also multiply the direct light passes too. Whatever the art director prefers is what matters.
Also, on animated objects, what you can bake won't account for moving close to a wall that occludes one side of the character, or the effect that the lowered arm has on the sides of the body, or the gun held close to his chest... which is also very important, it's not just about the high frequency details.
But I don't see any pre-baked occlusion effect on MGS4 characters...
speaking of maps, btw, are you implying you don't have _any_ intensity variations in your diffuse maps?
Only color variations for dirt, wear and tear, some randomness to make the material less artificial. Note that areas more exposed to the outside world are more likely to fade out, get the paint off, suffer damage etc. etc., whereas dirt accumulates in holes, skratches and other low points. But we don't paint diffuse shading into the textures... I can't show you any texture images though, sorry.
(Note that we do CGI, not games... but if you browse Doom3 textures, most of them don't have any diffuse shading either. I'd love to see Gears' textures, though...)