AP I can think of no better way to start this response off that to say plainly that I disagree.
I respect that you disagree. Let me try to convince you anyway...
I also see I've now got myself in heated debate in two threads, which means I'm unlikely to keep up for long...
How many cores until it rivals Cells theoretical performance?
The three processors in Xenon are 3.2 Ghz with two-wide 128-SIMD units. That is basically the same as a Cell SPE (in fact, the Xenon cores is actually more flexible with the dual-issue, so Xenon has a high peek rate than a Cell SPU). So, it seems like if Xenon has 8 or so cores, it would have similar raw FLOPS as Cell. Xenon has 165 million transistors to Cell's 234 million transistors (on the same 90nm IBM SOI process). So, at the same transistor budget, Xenon could have four cores (instead of just three).
How many more until it matches its real world performance?
I dunno. Xenon has two threads per core (unlike the Cell SPEs), so having 6 threads can help tolerate some memory latency and keep the system fed. This doesn't mean it will hit its peak, but it should help the CPU utilization.
Keep in mind we're talking externally to gaming right now...
I was thinking the non-GPU computations of gaming actually. As that is what Xenon was solely designed for.
And within all that you are faced with very real thermal, yield, and die size concerns.
One thing that is masterful about the Cell is its physical implementation. The datapaths have lots of full-custom layout, and they really banged on it to make it fast and low power (each of the SPEs is only a few watts!) The actual low-level circuit and layout implementation of Cell seems pretty solid.
In contrast, the Xenon chip had a much smaller design team, and thus much less custom layout (and more standard cell synthesis).
Certainly we are not seeing the Xenon design proliferate outside of the specific use in the XBox; do you consider that a mistake on IBM's part, vs the institutional support Cell has gained in a number of academic/HPC sectors?
This is mostly due to contracts and economic incentive. Xenon was bought and paid for by Microsoft. IBM design the chip and just turn the design over to Microsoft. It wouldn't surprise me if IBM can't even sell Xenon chips if it wanted to.
In contrast, Wikipedia estimates $400 million was spent on the R&D for Cell. I think IBM gets a cut on each Cell chip sold (as they still own IP on the design). You bet IBM is trying to hype up and milk Cell for all it is worth. And, for some applications it is by far the cheapest FLOPs around (perhaps ignoring GPGPU stuff).
One more reason I'm not impressed with Cell: when Cell started out, it was going to be the *GPU* and *CPU* for PS3. It was more like AMD Fusion (or something) in that regard. In the end, Sony realized it was going to really suck as a GPU, so they quickly (in a huge panic) talk to NVIDIA to get them out of a tight spot. Between Cell and the NVIDIA RSX chip, the end results was one of the most expensive main-stream gaming console in history.
It's strange to me that given your views in the quote above, you're not in the other Larrabee thread extolling an octal-core Nehalem or something vs Larrabee itself, since it would seem more in line with the position you're taking here.
I guess I don't see the inconsistency. But I reserve the right to be inconsistent, I guess.
Obviously an eight-core Nehalem isn't going to sip power. Yet, if PC games can take advantage of the multiple CPUs, it might be a perfect companion to a high-end GPU (be that a chip by AMD/ATI, NVIDIA, or Larrabee).
One thing that Cell did get right (IMHO) is the big-core/small-core thing. I think heterogeneous chips (same ISA or different ISA) is the way to go in the future. AMD Fusion is along this direction, and I think we'll see more chips like that going forward (but not Larrabee's first incarnation).
You have to understand that your statements in this thread are off-topic, and re-open many an old debate from the past. I'm ok with that as long as the quality is high, but we may need to spin it off into the CellPerformance section or something depending on where it goes.
I apologize for going off topic. My main point wasn't to trash Cell (or, just to trash Cell), but to say that Microsoft was happy with Xenon, why wouldn't they just go back to IBM again?