Kinect price confirmed 150USD plus arcade model priced

[Silent_Buddha]

It is rumored that Sony is planning to hire assistants that will be answering questions and demoing Move all across stores from launch till the new year. It could be a good strategy, with people being able to immediately buy the stuff if they like it. It will be interesting to see how the different marketing approaches end up working (if, that is, Microsoft doesn't do the same).

Well, it's not launch yet, but I believe that each demo kiosk currently has an attendant full time. Whether that will be expanded at launch when there's more demo kiosk's around is a bit unknown. I wonder if MS will provide/insist on assistants or whether they'll leave it up to each individual store?

Regards,
SB

 

[Silent_Buddha]

I'm intrigued by this Wii upgrade appeal talk. We can only go by anecotal evidence really but I know for a fact that my wife will drop Wii Fit in a nanosecond in order to move on to the Ubisoft fitness game as soon as she sees it.

Similarly, having played Kinect Adventures I know that it's going to get exactly the same response as Wii Sports did when that turned up in the living room - the kids are going to want to show it off to their friends.

All of the core gamer concerns about Kinect have absolutely no relevance to this market. They won't care if it doesn't work with Halo, they won't care about 150-200ms latency. I had very little (ie no) interest in the Wii - that didn't stop it being an enormous success.

Yes, one of the interesting things so far is I've seen far more general public excitement about Kinect prior to launch than there was for the X360 prior to launch. This from everyone from friends and family to co-workers to random people chatting in public.

Still don't know whether that will successfully transfer to sales or not, but Kinect is definitely squarely in the public eye and it's almost universally positive for non-core gamers.

Regards,
SB

 

[Shifty Geezer]

I think the movie clip viral marketing campaign is brilliant. these demo kiosks are no longer just about 1:1 marketing, but the spread from word-of-mouth is now global thanks to social websites. MS are doing this thing right, in stark contrast to EyeToy.

 

[Silent_Buddha]

Yeah, I'd have to agree with that, especially after seeing one particularly cute "review"/"preview" on Youtube by a kid that sounded like he was about 9 or 10 years old.

At this point, MS just needs to keep feeding the experience to new places now and then to keep the viral video's flowing. I'm still wondering, however, if they perhaps started a little early. It's still 3+ months away from when someone will be able to buy one and take it home.

Regards,
SB

 

[Arwin]

I agree that Microsoft's marketing push is impressive. I feel things can go either way here - they can be the next Wii launch, but they can also be the next PS3 launch, so to speak. I definitely expect them to have success among a decent percentage of 360 owners regardless, because Kinect fills a casual void in the 360 household. Similarly, I expect Move to be an even bigger success among PS3 owners, simply because it provides something for everyone and there are very few people I think who do not gain something by owning a Move. I'm expecting a success at least similar to the launch of the first Dual Shock controller in that respect.

But how things will end up in the casual market I don't know. Kinect is in a better position with the cheapest bundle, while still considerably more expensive than the Wii, it's also still a fair bit cheaper than the PS3 + Move. Regardless of actual value (which the PS3 bundle still has in spades) that's without question going to remain a barrier, and I expect Sony to work hard to get under 300 USD/EUR. The only other advantage that Move has going for it is that it is on the market in September, and it will be interesting to see what word of mouth it will get from being out there.

It will be interesting to see where we'll be a year from now. Maybe someone should create a poll thread again with some nice voting options.

 

[Squilliam]

I agree that Microsoft's marketing push is impressive. I feel things can go either way here - they can be the next Wii launch, but they can also be the next PS3 launch, so to speak.

At least what the PS3 has proved is that even if you launch badly and at a too high price, you can get that momentum back with a large and well timed price cut. However thinking about it some more, I don't think that $299 is too high a price if the experience is good enough for new buyers. The problematic part is probably the $149 price on the standalone for the current Xbox 360 owners. However from what I can see that does seem deliberate at this point, I suspect once they have the core games out we'll see a 250GB Kinect bundle as well.

$299 is coincidentally roughly how much the typical Wii user would have splashed out on when they took their WIi home because the killer app was local Wii Sports playing if you factor in the cost of that almost compulsory extra Wii Mote.

 

[NavNucST3]

I agree that Microsoft's marketing push is impressive. I feel things can go either way here - they can be the next Wii launch, but they can also be the next PS3 launch, so to speak. I definitely expect them to have success among a decent percentage of 360 owners regardless, because Kinect fills a casual void in the 360 household. Similarly, I expect Move to be an even bigger success among PS3 owners, simply because it provides something for everyone and there are very few people I think who do not gain something by owning a Move. I'm expecting a success at least similar to the launch of the first Dual Shock controller in that respect.

But how things will end up in the casual market I don't know. Kinect is in a better position with the cheapest bundle, while still considerably more expensive than the Wii, it's also still a fair bit cheaper than the PS3 + Move. Regardless of actual value (which the PS3 bundle still has in spades) that's without question going to remain a barrier, and I expect Sony to work hard to get under 300 USD/EUR. The only other advantage that Move has going for it is that it is on the market in September, and it will be interesting to see what word of mouth it will get from being out there.

It will be interesting to see where we'll be a year from now. Maybe someone should create a poll thread again with some nice voting options.

My prediction is that Kinect sells-in 1.5-2:1 over Move after a year on the market.

 

[patsu]

I think the movie clip viral marketing campaign is brilliant. these demo kiosks are no longer just about 1:1 marketing, but the spread from word-of-mouth is now global thanks to social websites. MS are doing this thing right, in stark contrast to EyeToy.

Yap, I did the same thing 7 years ago.

The "high" Kinect price will drop over time. At $150, they can probably sell the entire inventory. So I don't see why people complain about the price.

Sony marketing is working for their competitors yet again. They gimped the PS Move feature set in their own collaterals, they focus on the wrong things (Too low level !). It looks like they are still stuck at square one, trying to explain the difference between Wii and Move (The "better mouse trap" problem).

Sony takes a totally different approach: Emphasize incremental improvements from Wii (precision), sell to the core gamer base first, and focus on profit. Selling to the core gamers first is a fine strategy, but the thing is I don't see the impact of their marketing $$$. Hiring people at the demo kiosk is a terrible, terrible idea. For a product touting enhanced usability and fun, the consumers should be able to "get it" right away. If they need to explain the concept and its uniqueness, then they have already failed big time. It gives the execs and product folks an excuse to stop thinking/working.

Using the "We Do Everything" pitch will sound corny by the end of this year or next. It's not tangible enough to sell a new experience. They need to present a brand new experience using Move's fine specs. But from what I can see, the XMB + Move integration looks similar to the current XMB (We can already use mouse/trackpad + XMB today). The Move experience will vary from title to title, with no new umbrella concept other than "Wii-like".

The end effect is PS Move becomes isolated and limited to just a tech improvement, a self-fulfilling prophecy. BTW, where is my StarCraft for Move ? Such a partnership would have elevated the tech achievement, and anchored the "natural interface for core gamers" image.

My prediction is that Kinect sells-in 1.5-2:1 over Move after a year on the market.

May be more... because Sony is also pitching 3D vision to the core gamers. Some of us will go there first, instead of PS Move.

 

[obonicus]

My prediction is that Kinect sells-in 1.5-2:1 over Move after a year on the market.

What are we talking about, though? 3 million to 5 million, WW? (That'd be way too dull -- enough for everyone to be able to claim 'success' while surprising no one.)

 

[Crossbar]

My prediction is that Kinect sells-in 1.5-2:1 over Move after a year on the market.

Will be hard to get reliable number for the move setups. Many people like myself will not buy a bundle just a move controller.

 

[Crossbar]

Hiring people at the demo kiosk is a terrible, terrible idea. For a product touting enhanced usability and fun, the consumers should be able to "get it" right away. If they need to explain the concept and its uniqueness, then they have already failed big time.

Maybe, but remember casual gamers dont follow game forums, they may need someone explaining the difference compared to the Wii handson. Someone passing by briefly may see it as just a simple Wii clone.

 

[patsu]

Many are already familiar with Wiimote+.

When Wii was first launched, they didn't need professionals to explain the concept. A simple TV ad and WiiSports served the purpose.

If they want to talk about the difference between Wii and PS Move, I'd rather they show the differences without human assistance, and keep repeating it in different variations/forms. If you look at the PS Move concept trailer, you can't tell the difference between Move and Wii too. Why bother hiring people if you have a parallel trailer that basically says "I'm like Wii" ? They are not thinking hard enough.

 

[rabidrabbit]

Hiring people at the demo kiosk is a terrible, terrible idea. For a product touting enhanced usability and fun, the consumers should be able to "get it" right away. If they need to explain the concept and its uniqueness, then they have already failed big time. It gives the execs and product folks an excuse to stop thinking/working.

Well, MS did have hired staff at the Kinect tour demo, you can see them at some of the Kinect.me videos for example instructing people to move further from the camera... (this seemed to be a problem in two player gaming if both players were standing on same plane... Gizmodos article seems to hint that Kinect actually needs the two people to be positioned at different distances from the cameras so it can tell them apart http://gizmodo.com/5604308/deep-inside-xbox-360-kinect-the-interface-of-microsofts-dreams)

I'm not sure it's such a bad idea to have someone presenting the product, there have been demonstrators for various products at supermarkets, like food, which do not need explaining to people how to use it, but it does make the product stand out better.

I don't think it hurts Kinect or Move to have some attractive demonstrator at the demo booth; Kinect might seem just another EyeToy clone for casual gamer, I mean the demos really do not give away the fact that it is indeed that more advanced than even Microsofts previous effort on camera based gaming (anyone actually bought that one?).
Move too might seem just a clone of Wiimote and Nunchuck, it does need someone to explain the difference to a casual gamer.
The fact is Move is a lot like Wii, and Kinect is a lot like EyeToy. They do need someone to explain why they are so much better and advanced than the competitors.

 

[patsu]

Well, MS did have hired staff at the Kinect tour demo, you can see them at some of the Kinect.me videos for example instructing people to move further from the camera... (this seemed to be a problem in two player gaming if both players were standing on same plane... Gizmodos article seems to hint that Kinect actually needs the two people to be positioned at different distances from the cameras so it can tell them apart http://gizmodo.com/5604308/deep-inside-xbox-360-kinect-the-interface-of-microsofts-dreams)

Kinect has some setup limitations. As far as I know, PS Move should be more general/lenient. Sony should not need tech support in this sense.

IMHO, putting people at the kiosks while the basic concept and pitch are not well thought through is wasteful. These staff should not be the focus of the campaign.

There should be many activities/events/competitions and mini-games Sony can do with the in-store staff to showcase the PS Move's strength (e.g., PSEye can detect facial expressions). While they are at it, throw away the old PS Move promo video.

EDIT:

need someone to explain the difference to a casual gamer

I agree. But there may be better ways to do it. Best is for the users to enjoy the unique experience themselves (if there's something unique), or gather and draw from the Internet or the local crowd in-store. There are also the in-store retailer staff.

Sony sometimes have their own staff pushing HDTV in BestBuy. They should know how effective it is compared to Samsung and Vizio's performances. Much of the war has been fought by the time the consumers step into that department (and after they leave empty-handed).

 

[NavNucST3]

What are we talking about, though? 3 million to 5 million, WW? (That'd be way too dull -- enough for everyone to be able to claim 'success' while surprising no one.)

My actual gut number is larger than the shy 2:1 I posted; personally neither 3 nor 5 million is a success in my book.

Anecdote:
I'm sitting at my desk working on a project when one of my devs comes in and we have this conversation

dev: Have you heard about kynest
me: ?
dev: for the 360
me: Connect (kinect)?
dev: yeah that must be it, I didn't know how to pronounce it
me: you don't say
dev: Are you buying it
me: Absolutely.
dev: I'm definitely getting it, did you see the game where they had the tiger on the screen and the girl was playing with it?
me: (in my head: Kinectimals...THAT is what sold you): Yep, I saw it
dev: Man, that was so cool
********

I couldn't believe I had just had a conversation about Kinectimals (though if you see my post about Kinectimals in the games thread this is exactly what I was referring to). It isn't that it was Kinectimals (I have it on pre-order) it is that a thirty year old developer who uses his 360 for Netflix, has a gamerscore of 255 and owns Forza and ODST only because it was a bundle, is willing to drop $150 on Kinect because of an on-screen tiger.

[snip]

May be more... because Sony is also pitching 3D vision to the core gamers. Some of us will go there first, instead of PS Move.

I find that thinking delusional. Is this the same core gamer that is consistently complaining about $60 game prices? $50 Live prices? $15 XBLA/PSN prices? You are saying that TVs are now as disposable as cell phones? That the 3D market is huge (according to the recent movie industry numbers it isn't)?

 

[Arwin]

My prediction is that Kinect sells-in 1.5-2:1 over Move after a year on the market.

I think in the U.S. Kinect and Move will follow the existing 360 and PS3 userbase, so 2:1. I think that the Move may sell more to PS3 owners within the year than Kinect to 360 owners. On the other hand, I think that Kinect will sell more with new 360 bundles. I think these will cancel each other out eventually. I think my estimates will, in the end, be similar to yours, but maybe closer to 1.5:1. The price in the end is going to favor the Move.

That said, I have no idea how supply/demand is going to shape things in this case either.

Irrespective the final numbers though, I expect Move to do much better in Europe than Kinect. Here I expect a figure closer to 1.5:1 in favor of the move, maybe much higher than that considering its low entry price and higher prevalence of PS Eyes. Anyway, getting off-topic a little - will start a new thread.

 

[obonicus]

My actual gut number is larger than the shy 2:1 I posted; personally neither 3 nor 5 million is a success in my book.

Do you think that Kinect will drive the 360 over the Wii this holiday? Or if Kinect's sales (whether bundled or standalone) will beat the Wii's in December?

 

[Silent_Buddha]

I think in the U.S. Kinect and Move will follow the existing 360 and PS3 userbase, so 2:1. I think that the Move may sell more to PS3 owners within the year than Kinect to 360 owners. On the other hand, I think that Kinect will sell more with new 360 bundles. I think these will cancel each other out eventually. I think my estimates will, in the end, be similar to yours, but maybe closer to 1.5:1. The price in the end is going to favor the Move.

I think Kinect sales are going to be only marginally related to the X360 userbase. I think the majority of Kinect sales are going to be non X360/PS3 owning people that will be going for the Kinect bundle with a few sales going to existing owners who have wives or kids that insist on getting it.

I see Move much more tied to current PS3 install base as it is quite solidly targetting current users with the majority of Move games with only a relatively few games going after the Wii crowd.

PS3 sales will probably be more predictable since it's going after a known quantity. Kinect is going to be more variable. Just how attractive is motionless controls to your average consumer? Is the incredible hype (absolutely dwarfs Move among non-core gamers) leading up to it's launch going to translate to sales?

If that hype translates to sales it has the potential to absolutely swamp Move sales, and potential ratio is only going to be limited by the supply of Kinect units with demand remaining strong for a while. If it doesn't translate to sales, it's quite possible for Move to do better as they are going after a known and safe install base.

Right now, based on non-core gamer excitement, I'd say MS will sell every single Kinect they can manufacture, and there will be shortages this winter. I don't expect Move to sell out however except perhaps right at launch unless Sony have serious issues with manufacturing.

But like I said, it's quite possible the pre-launch excitement won't translate to sales, but I'll be fairly surprised if it doesn't.

Regards,
SB

 

[NavNucST3]

Do you think that Kinect will drive the 360 over the Wii this holiday? Or if Kinect's sales (whether bundled or standalone) will beat the Wii's in December?

LOL. You just really want me to get close to that ledge and jump don't you? The Navy taught me to be brave (read: stupid) but I don't know if I'm quite THAT brave. I'll have to look at last years numbers. I DO think that if the Wii holds price that it will have a "significant" drop YoY in December with the 360 gaining the majority of that share (not including the handhelds). I am talking worldwide not just North America NPD.

All of my assumptions are predicated on MSFT being able to produce enough Kinects and 360s. While a shortage may be great for publicity I think it would be a nightmare for sales (overall) which may seem counterintuitive at face-value. I think that over the holiday that everyone who wants (and can afford) a stand-alone or a bundled Kinect HAS to be able to find one in whichever store they are shopping. The party (without its negative connotation) and word-of-mouth for the device is what I believe will be the ultimate driver of sales. If Kinect is out of sight I absolutely believe it will be out of mind.

As far as overseas goes I think Kinect will do very well in the UK and the remainder of PAL may not be enough to offset the Kinect-UK advantage.

The most unaccountable thing is number of Move controllers per home.

 

[obonicus]

LOL. You just really want me to get close to that ledge and jump don't you? The Navy taught me to be brave (read: stupid) but I don't know if I'm quite THAT brave. I'll have to look at last years numbers. I DO think that if the Wii holds price that it will have a "significant" drop YoY in December with the 360 gaining the majority of that share (not including the handhelds). I am talking worldwide not just North America NPD.

Well, kind of. I'm curious what sort of success you see for this thing. As I've snarked before, I think that post-release actual discussion of these devices success will be impossible, since it'll all resolve to 'it did good enough' (except for those people who will think that anything short of Wii 2008-2009 holiday sales means failure). My own guess is 10 million kinects by the end of 2012, WW. No idea about Move -- I'm probably getting it, but I'm not sure why anyone ELSE would. (On the other hand, my tastes are not the majority's, so what do I know?)

And yeah, I should have added: 'all predictions are off if the Wii price-drops, or Kinect is supply limited'. I don't think either of those will happen. I also framed it in terms of this year's holidays exactly because the Wii looks like it's in a slump, so we might see lowish numbers, comparatively. I guess what I'm wondering is: do you think Kinect's performance will be within the same ballpark as the Wii's?

I'm on the record that I don't think so, not at all (I think $150 is far too steep, I don't think the software is there, I don't think the Wii upgrade is real, I think the Wii will keep most of its mindshare) but I'm starting to consider the possibility that I might be wrong based on these anecdotes. I don't think it's a particularly real possibility, but it's a possibility.