I think the problem here is much bigger. It all boils down to the audience. I personally think Microsoft only ended up with parity on marketshare last generation (X360 - PS3) because Sony made some big errors, namely 1.) launching late due to blue laser diods shortages and HDMI 2.) high price of the console and 3.) GPU weakness and incredibly difficult CPU architecture.
1 and 2 were crucial to their overal strategy (Bluray adaption) and 3 was something that was at some point offset by brilliant 1st and 2nd party games. Still, Bluray adaption came at a high price - it ment the console was significantly delayed so that Microsoft had a full year to continue selling its nicely designed package at a very good $399 price point. That the PS3 was able to sell at its 499/599 price point is nothing short of amazing really - and that, sticking to its guns, it achieved parity after 6 years on a global scale is IMO impressive - but shows how strong the PlayStation brandname is. The only negative point, is that they effectively lost the NA market.
This IMO was an ideal starting point for Microsoft and the Xbox One. Where they went wrong are IMO
1.) significantly weaker hardware / tradeoff in order to establish a multimedia dedicated device (kinect, livingroom hub + other services)
2.) higher price point of $499 vs a more powerful (but gaming orientated) PS4 at $399.
3.) side-by-side launch with your strongest competitor.
Number 3. IMO is crucial because I believe after taking off with the X360 in especially the NA market, Microsoft believed they had this region in the bag if they launch at the same time. IMO they would have been, but the marketing campaign surrounding the TV and voice integration, focus on Kinect, the higher price point killed off the anticipation. This is where points 1. and 2. become crucial. At the right price point, it could work - but I think this should have been the plan from the beginning.
The drop to $399 without a Kinect makes sense, but in my opinion, it won't make much difference to the state of the console. They managed to piss of those few people that saw value in a Kinect dedicated device by excluding it - but at the same time, they still don't appeal to the group of ex PC gamers who went to the Xbox because it represented the closest to PC gaming in the livingroom. What they effectively have done now is IMO cause more insecurities with their market. It will be interesting to see how they will come out at E3.
As I said, I don't think it will change much. My prediction is that Xbox One will slowly fall back and will never really gain the traction the X360 did. Assuming Sony doesn't stuff up, they should comfortably be able to build up momentum and with that, a lot of the mainstream gamers who aren't as attached to their brand will flock to the one that has the most sales.
At this point, I wouldn't be surprised if Microsoft kills of Xbox One early (the earliest) and come out with something new 2-3 years down the road. This is bad news. I don't think Sony can afford to ditch the PS4 that early and its crucial to their business that they ride it out. As such, it would be better for both businesses if both competitors gained enough traction to maintain the life of these consoles for 6-8 years. The way things are pointing with the Xbox, I don't really see this happening yet.
