Japanese Negative on PS3

[TheChefO]

I would suspect that the smaller, typically Japanese only development houses will switch to other platforms such as the handhelds. Larger developers/publishers who already produce games internationally will be keeping a much closer eye on western markets, and tailor their games to those regions, and whatever system is selling best there.

And of course some places will simply shut down.

The Japanese console market looks ready to crash. Frankly if I was a Japanese game developer, I would be very hesitant to even start a new console game ro any system right now unless it was predestined for western markets, and even then I would probably plan on it being multiplatform.

So overall you agree now is probably not the time for Japanese developers to gamble right?

Many developers feel that Sony may have trouble reaching its sales goals. 62.13% feel that the system won't reach 6,000,000 sales by March of next year.

With this I'd say Wii/360 J-dev support should be picking up pretty swiftly which we've seen some evidence of lately. Specifically on 360

 

[Powderkeg]

So overall you agree now is probably not the time for Japanese developers to gamble right?

For multiregional developers, yeah, now would be a good time to be thinking multiplatform, or development that allows for easy switching of target platform for the game.

For the Japanese only developers, well, the Japanese aren't big on gambling when it comes to business. They'll stick to the handhelds where it's safe.

With this I'd say Wii/360 J-dev support should be picking up pretty swiftly which we've seen some evidence of lately. Specifically on 360

I definitely think that more Japanese developers with western bound games will be considering multiplatform at least. But again I think they'll play it safe and wait to see what the market does before they plan any big exclusive games for any system if they haven't already started on one.

 

[TheChefO]

For multiregional developers, yeah, now would be a good time to be thinking multiplatform, or development that allows for easy switching of target platform for the game.

For the Japanese only developers, well, the Japanese aren't big on gambling when it comes to business. They'll stick to the handhelds where it's safe.




I definitely think that more Japanese developers with western bound games will be considering multiplatform at least. But again I think they'll play it safe and wait to see what the market does before they plan any big exclusive games for any system if they haven't already started on one.

Agreed - I think any dev right now in this market would be a fool to be making a big time exclusive and if they are, I'd expect they are being heavily supported financially. (Of course this doesn't include 1st party)

Regarding j-dev support on 360, they seem to be getting all types of games not just "western type" games being developed in Japan. I was really surprised to see the level of support from Japan on 360 especially when one considers how the system is selling there but when these developments are taken in context of the market, it makes sense.

I think you see some of this coming to fruition with Square Enix producing a FF on 360 and speaking cautiously of ps3. While i would not call them bullish on 360, it is a complete 180 from last gen. While other j-devs are still quite bullish on ps3 I suspect in the back of their minds they realize it isn't a one horse race anymore and they may want to spread their bets a bit.

 

[Nite_Hawk]

Agreed - I think any dev right now in this market would be a fool to be making a big time exclusive and if they are, I'd expect they are being heavily supported financially. (Of course this doesn't include 1st party)

Regarding j-dev support on 360, they seem to be getting all types of games not just "western type" games being developed in Japan. I was really surprised to see the level of support from Japan on 360 especially when one considers how the system is selling there but when these developments are taken in context of the market, it makes sense.

I think you see some of this coming to fruition with Square Enix producing a FF on 360 and speaking cautiously of ps3. While i would not call them bullish on 360, it is a complete 180 from last gen. While other j-devs are still quite bullish on ps3 I suspect in the back of their minds they realize it isn't a one horse race anymore and they may want to spread their bets a bit.

I have a feeling that this gen is going to be somewhat chaotic like the snes/genesis days. This is assuming that each ends up with "must have" exclusives like Sonic and Super mario bros were to those consoles. For this reason, I think big name publishers are probably going to have a lot of power in the next year or two. A hot exclusive could be the deal breaker that pushes one console or the other into the dominant position this gen.

Nite_Hawk

 

[TheChefO]

I have a feeling that this gen is going to be somewhat chaotic like the snes/genesis days. This is assuming that each ends up with "must have" exclusives like Sonic and Super mario bros were to those consoles. For this reason, I think big name publishers are probably going to have a lot of power in the next year or two. A hot exclusive could be the deal breaker that pushes one console or the other into the dominant position this gen.

Nite_Hawk

agreed, with all things being equal. However back then, Snes and Genesis were much closer price wise and Snes was visibly superior. This gen, Sony has momentum from last gen, but a big roadblock in pricing. I think next next gen (xbox720/ps4) is when 3rd party pubs will make or break marketshare.

 

[Arwin]

Two questions:

1. Have Japanese console sales fallen, or have the US and European sales of consoles risen? Because I strongly suspect the latter. Keeping in mind that there are actually a few more people living in both regions, this is only a natural development.

2. Isn't it true that in terms of total software sales, Japan, despite being smaller, still outdoes any other region with a considerable margin?

 

[mckmas8808]

agreed, with all things being equal. However back then, Snes and Genesis were much closer price wise and Snes was visibly superior. This gen, Sony has momentum from last gen, but a big roadblock in pricing. I think next next gen (xbox720/ps4) is when 3rd party pubs will make or break marketshare.

Why in the world would you assume something like that about "next-next gen"?
That's at least 5 to 6 years away from now. There's no way we could know that.

 

[Powderkeg]

Two questions:

1. Have Japanese console sales fallen, or have the US and European sales of consoles risen? Because I strongly suspect the latter. Keeping in mind that there are actually a few more people living in both regions, this is only a natural development.

No, the Japanese market is shrinking. Yes, the oUS and EU markets are growing, but the Japanese console market is definitely shrinking.

2. Isn't it true that in terms of total software sales, Japan, despite being smaller, still outdoes any other region with a considerable margin?

Attach rates by region.

GameCube (End of 2005)
Japan - 6.693
America - 9.838
Other - 8.550
Total - 8.945


Xbox (Unofficial, End of 2004)
Asia - 4.706
America - 9.773
Europe - 8.200
Total - 8.945


PlayStation 2 (End of 2005)
Japan - 8.454
America - 11.222
Europe - 9.294
Total - 9.885


And just for comparison, from the previous generation...

PlayStation (End of June 2005)
Japan - 13.201
America - 9.122
Europe - 7.552
Total - 9.367

As you can see, the US and EU attach rates have also grown while the Japanese attach rate has declined.

 

[quest55720]

I think this generation the reason the attach rate for the PS2 is lower in japan is the DS. The PS2 should be a money printing machine right now with a large userbase and a mature platform. Instead it seems 15 out of the top 20 selling games are DS games every week for the last 6 months. I can only imagine how disapointed sony is I am sure they were counting on this being time being huge for the PS2 as they push to the PS3. It is amazing how the DS and DS light have completely destroyed every other system in japan in such a short time. I would be real curious to compare the PS1 and PS2 sales in their final years before the next gen launched. I could be wrong but I would say that the japanese market is still strong they have just gone another direction this past year.

 

[zed]

yes i agree with that look at the current top10 in japan at the million plus sellers in the top 10 (all NDS)

2 New Super Mario Bros. Nintendo NDS 1,848,813
3 Kahashima Ryuuta Nintendo NDS 2,594,989
5 Kahashima Ryuuta Kyouju NDS 2,437,374
7 Doubutsu no Mori DS Nintendo NDS 2,857,990
8 Eigoga Nigatena Otona Nintendo NDS 1,193,324

5 NDS million sellers on the top10!!!

for comparision heres the million sellers in the US currently (4 ps2 + 1 nds)

2 Kingdom Hearts II PS2 1,384,000
4 God of War PS2 1,204,000
8 Kingdom Hearts PS2 2,881,000
9 Nintendogs DS 2,073,000
10 Gran Turismo 4 PS2 1,808,000

 

[Arty]

Of all the places, I never expected negative outlook for the PS3 rom Japan devs.

 

[TheChefO]

Why in the world would you assume something like that about "next-next gen"?
That's at least 5 to 6 years away from now. There's no way we could know that.

Because this gen it is too big a gamble for 3rd party devs. No one knows exactly how this gen will shake up in the end, much less how the market will look by the time they finish the game they're making currently. This gen is a big question mark and the biggest reasons for that are price and timing. The combination of these two things will act as a balancer for this gen which I predict will enable MS to be on equal footing in installed base with Sony by the end of this gen and Nintendo potentially could be right up there as well.

For these reasons I say 2011 timeframe is when 3rd party devs will be rubbing their hands together with glee in thinking of the potential money they will make by pushing exlusives in closed door meetings to MS/Sony/N looking to get an advantage over one another in the generation to come.

edit-

Serenity - Exactly. I anticipate some big changes folks.