pc999 said:
When you add Madden+GTA+NFS+MoH+(whatever casual game it is) you probably will end up covering much more gamers, you will hardly find someone who dont have any of those.
As investigated in this thread...
http://www.beyond3d.com/forum/showpost.php?p=790329&postcount=89
It depends on whether no-one buys sequels and has more than one of those games.
GTA's top seller, Vice City, from 40 million US PS2s, sold about 7 million copies. Now if every GTA:VC buyer never had GTA3, the GTA franchise covers 13 million unit, 25%. But if as is more likely, GTA3 owners bought the next title in the series, GTA accounts for 7 million of 40 million consoles. Similarly looking at Madden, the best selling version was 2004 with 3.6 million. The total sold is something like 15+ million. Did everyone who bought Madden only buy one version? Chances are they 'upgraded' to a new version.
If people upgrade, looking at just the best selling version of each franchise we get Madden+GTA+NFS+MoH+FF = 7 + 3.5 + 3 + 2.5 + 2.5 = 18.5. Maybe half of users have one of these games
if no-one who owns one of these franchises owns any of the others. The moment an owner of one has a copy of another, that's halved, down to 25%.
Even grouped together, key titles don't represent the majority of users choice of games. Pick the top 10 best selling titles in the US and you only cover maybe 20-30% of gamers owning them. The rest of the library still makes up most purchases, those hundreds and thousands of game people pick off a shelf but which never get a mention on hardcore gamer forums who are on the lookout for the creme-de-la-creme. So if you have two consoles both with the key franchises, one being cheaper than the other and everything else about the games the same, it's no certainty or even likelihood the cheaper console will be bought to play those franchises over the more expensive console. It depends on what else the consoles offer. Having key franchises is one sells point of a dozen or two factors that come to play.
ie. If Wii comes with Madden and GTA and NFS, and costs half as much as an XB360, that's no guarentee it'll be bought for those franchises over XB360. Graphics, gameplay, and rest of library are but some of the other factors involved. I personally would expect the XB360 to be the console of choice for these titles, as I think the gamers who like those titles would prefer the better graphics, HD output, conventional interface (not hiking balls!) etc.