Japanese Mag: Wii vs PS3

pc999 said:
Personally I think that wii long term life is dependant only in 2 things, quantity and qualitity of SW released on it (like in every console), as long as there is new, good and enought SW any console keeps selling.
Which i don't see happening. There's only a few games that are console sellers. I don't see much 3rd party support either...well not using the controller's potential that is.
 
pc999 said:
Personally I think that wii long term life is dependant only in 2 things, quantity and qualitity of SW released on it (like in every console), as long as there is new, good and enought SW any console keeps selling.


And therein lies the problem. Nintendo has a horrible history when it comes to frequent and plentiful game releases for their consoles.

And they've got 2 other things working against them as well....

First off, Nintendo fans rarely buy lots of 3rd party games, which limits 3rd party support, which reduces the number of games made for Nintendo systems. Before the Wii will receive widespread 3rd party support Nintendo fans will have to change their game buying habits ensuring enough 3rd party titles are highly profitable, convincing 3rd party developers that they really can compete with the 1st party games for sales.

In otherwords, the best thing for the Wii would be for people to stop buying so many Nintendo games and spend heavily on 3rd party games, thus earning developer support for the system and increasing the overall game library.


And then there is the issue that Nintendo has spent 20 years working itself into a very specific demographic group for their consoles, and it would take a radical departure from the "tried and true" Nintendo offerings to attract gamers from other demographics. (The kind of people who would buy non-Nintendo games and help increase 3rd party support for the system.)


If Nintendo tries to once again rely almost exclusively on 1st party games to sell the Wii, and those 1st party games follow the same historical Nintendo style it won't sell any better than the Gamecube.
 
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Shifty Geezer said:
...would you buy the cheapest console to play GTA and FIFA (if you like those games) that has no other games you like, when for another £100 you can buy a console that plays those games plus another dozen you're interested in?...

Agreed 100% Shifty - however as I have pointed out in posts prior, I don't think Developers will be sitting patiently waiting for ps3 to become affordable (userbase advantage) and in the meantime pumping out exclusive game after exclusive game on ps3 banging their head against the wall wondering why they aren't profitable. At the very least, I expect the vast majority of these titles headed to ps3 to either go to Wii or 360 or both with perhaps even more titles going to Wii/360 than ps3 due to the higher dev costs and lower userbase.

In other words - I would not bank on ps3 having the most diverse library this gen.
 
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Powderkeg said:
First off, Nintendo fans rarely buy lots of 3rd party games, which limits 3rd party support,


Is it they don't want 3rd party games or the 3rd party games released are either:
A) multiplat on other systems which they own already and are better on the other platform
B) exclusive but of poor quality or not desireable

3rd party support is on it's way back to where it was in the snes days and the latest polls prove this trend. This should bring in games which have either a not been available on Nintendo systems recently or are new IP designed for Wii.

I expect a large portion of Sony's Japanese fanbase to head to Wii and wait for a ps3 price drop in the years to come. In the meantime, developers will be bringing their ip's to Wii to sustain sales and hence bulstering Wii's lineup and making it a more attractive platform worldwide.
 
Shifty Geezer said:
I don't know, but as pointed out in another thread, those key titles only represent some 20% at best of a console user base. eg. eg. Only 10% of US PS2 owners bought into one of it's top selling franchises, Madden.

When you add Madden+GTA+NFS+MoH+(whatever casual game it is) you probably will end up covering much more gamers, you will hardly find someone who dont have any of those.

Also it seems this gen there is much less exclussives and both are trying to cover all the genres, so it is much harder to chose if you dont have a absolut must have game (probably making you chose the cheaper one;) ).

Powderkeg said:
And therein lies the problem. Nintendo has a horrible history when it comes to frequent and plentiful game releases for their consoles.

There is a big diference between past and future, till now it looks they will have a lot of suport (ie only those games that cant run (and we dont even know a bit mora about this) will not be for wii, aside console exclusives).
 
Looking at the sales.. 3rd party DS games are bombing even in Japan. I dont think that bodes well for the Wii.
 
pc999 said:
When you add Madden+GTA+NFS+MoH+(whatever casual game it is) you probably will end up covering much more gamers, you will hardly find someone who dont have any of those.
As investigated in this thread...
http://www.beyond3d.com/forum/showpost.php?p=790329&postcount=89
It depends on whether no-one buys sequels and has more than one of those games.
GTA's top seller, Vice City, from 40 million US PS2s, sold about 7 million copies. Now if every GTA:VC buyer never had GTA3, the GTA franchise covers 13 million unit, 25%. But if as is more likely, GTA3 owners bought the next title in the series, GTA accounts for 7 million of 40 million consoles. Similarly looking at Madden, the best selling version was 2004 with 3.6 million. The total sold is something like 15+ million. Did everyone who bought Madden only buy one version? Chances are they 'upgraded' to a new version.

If people upgrade, looking at just the best selling version of each franchise we get Madden+GTA+NFS+MoH+FF = 7 + 3.5 + 3 + 2.5 + 2.5 = 18.5. Maybe half of users have one of these games if no-one who owns one of these franchises owns any of the others. The moment an owner of one has a copy of another, that's halved, down to 25%.

Even grouped together, key titles don't represent the majority of users choice of games. Pick the top 10 best selling titles in the US and you only cover maybe 20-30% of gamers owning them. The rest of the library still makes up most purchases, those hundreds and thousands of game people pick off a shelf but which never get a mention on hardcore gamer forums who are on the lookout for the creme-de-la-creme. So if you have two consoles both with the key franchises, one being cheaper than the other and everything else about the games the same, it's no certainty or even likelihood the cheaper console will be bought to play those franchises over the more expensive console. It depends on what else the consoles offer. Having key franchises is one sells point of a dozen or two factors that come to play.

ie. If Wii comes with Madden and GTA and NFS, and costs half as much as an XB360, that's no guarentee it'll be bought for those franchises over XB360. Graphics, gameplay, and rest of library are but some of the other factors involved. I personally would expect the XB360 to be the console of choice for these titles, as I think the gamers who like those titles would prefer the better graphics, HD output, conventional interface (not hiking balls!) etc.
 
ZiFF said:
Looking at the sales.. 3rd party DS games are bombing even in Japan. I dont think that bodes well for the Wii.
Are there any good 3rd party games on DS? Is it a matter of being unable to compete with Nintendo, or unable to design games on a different control interface?
 
Shifty Geezer said:
Are there any good 3rd party games on DS? Is it a matter of being unable to compete with Nintendo, or unable to design games on a different control interface?

Exactly because overall the NDS game sales in japan have been amazing. When you have less than 25% of the user base of the PS2 and still sell more games things are all good. The game attachment rate for the NDS must be amazing. It is not nintendos fault 3rd partys suck at making games for the NDS. I think part of it I am sure nintendo puts better quality teams on the NDS projects while a lot of third partys put crap teams on the games expecting to make a game cheap and cash in. If 3rd partys use thier top tier teams on WII games I am sure they will sell just fine.
 
Paul_G said:
A little off topic, but I would just like to take issue with the price being similar to the PS2in Europe, the PS3 is AFAIK only releasing in the high spec variety, and is predicted to cost £425 in the UK, £125 more than the PS3 or about 40% higher.

Only releasing the hi-spec version in EU? I was under the impression the multi-sku was for all regions? As for ps3 pricing in EU, I'll just take you guys' word for it as there is too much info to track down. :p


Shifty -

Unique Games
It is my impression (and correct me if I'm wrong) that games in Japan are mostly unique titles which are made for ps2 because it has the dominant userbase. These games do not push graphics as much as they push "different" gaming concepts because the graphic aspect is not as important. One would expect this trend to continue with ps3 but there are obstacles to the Japanese which were not present with ps2:

1) Higher price point
2) Questionable new optical medium (not as compelling as dvd was with ps2)
3) Heavier & larger
4) Launching later (~equal to Wii)

Those are the two negatives in the way of a repeat of success for Sony in Japan.

Contrast these with the positive aspects of Wii.
1) Low pricepoint
2) Unique interface
3) Lighter and smaller
4) Launching same time as Wii

The tech advantage that ps3 has over Wii will not play a role for the majority of these unique games released in Japan and in fact the ps3 hardware is a limiter in comparison to Wii for unique titles on two fronts:

1) User interface
2) Developer interface (cost)

To those that would argue the tech advantage standpoint in Japan, consider that ds is outselling psp severly in Japan even though PSP is vastly superior in graphics and presentation. This graphical difference is very evident to most everyone.

This isn't to say GT won't sell in Japan or that the new Winning Eleven won't look better and sell better on ps3 than on Wii. But overall lower dev costs and higher profitability will lead these unique, different titles to Wii. This title diversity that has historically been on ps2 will lead others to bring their bigger titles to Wii as well. While they may not compare graphically to ps3, they will still be there and will still sell because many users will not be able to pay the price of admission with ps3.
 
Shifty Geezer said:
If people upgrade, looking at just the best selling version of each franchise we get Madden+GTA+NFS+MoH+FF = 7 + 3.5 + 3 + 2.5 + 2.5 = 18.5. Maybe half of users have one of these games if no-one who owns one of these franchises owns any of the others. The moment an owner of one has a copy of another, that's halved, down to 25%.

Great work, thanks.

It seems I overestimate the importance of multiplatform titles...Althought I must confess I still not sure about it, I will look better at this later.

ie. If Wii comes with Madden and GTA and NFS, and costs half as much as an XB360, that's no guarentee it'll be bought for those franchises over XB360. Graphics, gameplay, and rest of library are but some of the other factors involved. I personally would expect the XB360 to be the console of choice for these titles, as I think the gamers who like those titles would prefer the better graphics, HD output, conventional interface (not hiking balls!) etc.

I dont know if one can really put wii vs next gen, as I guess that people will look for diferent things depending on the version they buy, this is much more importante in the 360/PS3 or it used to seem that way.
 
TheChefO said:
Is it they don't want 3rd party games or the 3rd party games released are either:
A) multiplat on other systems which they own already and are better on the other platform
B) exclusive but of poor quality or not desireable

That's irrelevent. Fact is they don't buy them.

3rd party support is on it's way back to where it was in the snes days and the latest polls prove this trend. This should bring in games which have either a not been available on Nintendo systems recently or are new IP designed for Wii.

Same thing happened with the Gamecube. Lots of 3rd party support at first, but as soon as all of the big 3rd party games started flopping in sales they dropped Gamecube support.

I expect a large portion of Sony's Japanese fanbase to head to Wii and wait for a ps3 price drop in the years to come. In the meantime, developers will be bringing their ip's to Wii to sustain sales and hence bulstering Wii's lineup and making it a more attractive platform worldwide.

Don't count on it. It could happen, but don't count on it.
 
pc999 said:
There is a big diference between past and future, till now it looks they will have a lot of suport (ie only those games that cant run (and we dont even know a bit mora about this) will not be for wii, aside console exclusives).

Yeah, I heard the same thing said about how much better things were going to be on the Gamecube than the N64.
 
Powderkeg said:
Yeah, I heard the same thing said about how much better things were going to be on the Gamecube than the N64.

The problem with trying to compare wii support with gc support is gc was going head to head with ps2 in Japan. Ps2 was well established in Japan a year prior as an affordable dvd player that could also one day play the latest Final Fantasy.

This go round Wii is going up against a much less compelling ps3 in a region which favors innovative unique games. This scenario favors the Wii in lower dev costs and a very different, new and fresh interface.
 
TheChefO said:
Only releasing the hi-spec version in UK? I was under the impression the multi-sku was for all regions? As for ps3 pricing in UK, I'll just take you guys' word for it as there is too much info to track down. :p
Fixed. ;)
 
Powderkeg said:
Yeah, I heard the same thing said about how much better things were going to be on the Gamecube than the N64.

Overall, it was much better. We had more games, more 3rd-party games, more M-rated games, and more T-rated games. The only downside in the library was that most of the games were cross-platform and only a tiny handful of the 3rd-party titles took advantage of the hardware.
 
fearsomepirate said:
Overall, it was much better. We had more games, more 3rd-party games, more M-rated games, and more T-rated games. The only downside in the library was that most of the games were cross-platform and only a tiny handful of the 3rd-party titles took advantage of the hardware.

Well, Powderkeg still has a point to some extent. The Konami line ups was / is probably the best example: They only released Disney soccer, etc. The only game of the Winning Eleven series (PES), I think it was part 8, was only released in Japan and never made it to the west. Instead gamecube owners got the inferior ISS.
While the library was certainly improved in comparison to the N64, it was undoubtedly the worst 3rd party line up of all three consoles. Particularily, the end of the GCN was plagued by drouth of new releases.
 
hupfinsgack said:
Particularily, the end of the GCN was plagued by drouth of new releases.
You know, the GameCube's lifespan hasn't exactly ended just yet :) But yes, releases have been tapering off for a long time now.
 
Chalnoth said:
You know, the GameCube's lifespan hasn't exactly ended just yet :) But yes, releases have been tapering off for a long time now.

I was having an internal struggle whether to use was or not. :LOL: But clearly, since the end is near (I'd say the end is probably defined by the release of the last GCN Zelda). But anyway, the last releases have been rather disappointing or non existant.
 
pc999 said:
I dont know if one can really put wii vs next gen, as I guess that people will look for diferent things depending on the version they buy, this is much more importante in the 360/PS3 or it used to seem that way.
As this is a Wii versus PS3 thread, if we can't compare them, the thread shouldn't be here :p

Just to recap, the thread started with a survey giving much more interest to PS3 than Wii, and from that people are speculating a total whitewash victory for Wii in Japan. I'm only turned up to say that the evidence for Wii's success only spans the console's beginning, and long-term success is dependent on many other factors. With the evidence we have now, it's not clear who will 'win', and never will be before that happens, because people and buying trends are hard to predict. Price alone, or availibility of key titles, don't guarentee sales.
 
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