This race in Japan is over.
It looks like we really will have a psuedo repeat of the SNES v Genesis days with one console dominating one region and the other grabbing the other region. With the addition of another console and another region dominated by that console.
PS3 = EU
XB360 = US
WII = JP
Of course that doesn't mean the other consoles aren't selling "well" in other regions, just that they have specific regions in which they dominate. Like SNES v Genesis.
One thing that sucked though was being on the Genesis side of that era, I got screwed with the lack of key JP support. SF2 was an after thought* and FF series was nowhere to be found. Not to mention the plethora of other games which never saw the light of day on Genesis. There were of course reverse cases but for the most part, I was at a friends house playing SNES (MarioKart all night sessions FTW)
(*not only after SNES had SF2, but after they had SF2-Turbo ... then Gensis got SF2 CE which was the prior version and looked horrible in comparison)
This gen I expect similar but not to the same extent. I think the smaller more quirky JP games will originate and remain on Wii. The medium/bigger titles will either be ported up to PS3 (or down to Wii with Simultaneous release) or to xb360 depending on focus region.
At this rate:
-JP
Wii = 6.4m /yr - (100k/wk)
PS3 = 768k /yr - (12k/wk)
xb360 = 256k /yr - (4k/wk)
-US
Wii = 6.4m/yr - (400k/mo)
xb360 = 4.0m/yr - (250k/mo)
ps3 = 2.1m/yr - (130k/mo)
-EU
PS3 = ? 1st?
Wii = ? 2nd?
xb360 = ? 3rd?