iOS marketshare slipping?

Discussion in 'Mobile Industry' started by ToTTenTranz, Jan 28, 2014.

  1. Arwin

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    I want a pressure sensitive iPad. But I won't buy it the first model, this year I don't plan on buying much more than the PlayStation VR. Besides, I won't buy an iPad soon that doesn't fit with my nice Belkin keyboard ... But I do want that pressure sensitivity for sure. ;)


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  2. Pressure

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    Finally replacing my iPhone 5, if it's worthwhile :p
     
  3. Arwin

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    Getting the 6 Plus was my best move so far ... (also first time in almost forever that I got to choose my own model - of course downside is that I had to pay for it myself too ;)). That size is just perfect for me (I am a guy with big hands and sizeable pockets too ;) ).


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  4. wco81

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    Well I was thinking I'd upgrade but not so sure right now. Mainly I was looking forward to see what they'd do with the dual camera setup. I guess they're just starting so maybe it's more about potential over the next few years than what they would deliver on the iPhone 7 Plus.

    This photography blogger talks about how the dual camera is used in the 7 Plus and the future potential:

    http://www.dslrbodies.com/newsviews/coffin-not-quite-shut-but.html

    They also increased the amount of storage on the iPad mini 4 and iPad Air 2 and cut prices on some of the other models.

    They didn't announce new iPads yesterday but hard to imagine the A10 won't end up an iPad soon.

    But overall, the consensus seems to be, these are all nice incremental upgrades but next year will be the big ones. People expect OLED, edge to edge display, wireless charging.

    However, at this point, all mobile devices are just getting a lot of incremental upgrades. Maybe in a given year, the set of incremental improvements add up to something but I don't know if there's some special feature that's going to redefine the smart phone.

    Maybe when carriers roll out 5G, though 4G is good enough speed for most things.
     
  5. Pressure

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    Not to mention that they have enabled RAW capture through the API, so you can get DNGs straight out of the phone.

    Wonder what the dynamic range is ...

    My full frame dSLR is looking more and more like a dinosaur.
     
  6. eastmen

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    how old is it . My gf's t3i still takes pictures leagues better than my note 5 or her galaxy s7 edge .

    I don't think you will ever come close to even a point and shoot with iphoens and android. The lack of a real optical zoom will really hurt no matter how many sensors they use to take a picture.
     
  7. nutball

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    When I can fit my 300mm f/2.8 IS lens on my phone, I will sell my DSLR.
     
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  8. sebbbi

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    Soon every camera will be doing these things internally...

    Neural net super resolution:
    Link: https://github.com/david-gpu/srez
    [​IMG]

    Neural net noise reduction:
    Link: http://benedikt-bitterli.me/nfor/
    [​IMG]

    Apple, Google and Facebook are spending huge amount of money in neural network image processing/analysis research. Results are already stunning. Canon and Nikon are still mostly focusing around hardware. Their camera software is simple changes really slowly. You almost never get new features as firmware updates. If you get a firmware update, it only includes critical bug fixes. For example to make some new lens work better with your old body (as they want to sell you that lens obviously). If Canon and Nikon want to compete against these new software driven companies in the future, they have to change their practices.

    I am still waiting for sensors that accumulate light for slightly longer time (pre and post), and dump the intermediate (light) counters to memory several times during this period (resulting in X intermediate images). You could then calculate movement vectors (with neural nets of course), and reproject multiple images back to the center image (with neural net as well). Multiple images from the same source also help in reconstruction (denoise and super resolution). Apple is doing this with iPhone 7.
     
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  9. sebbbi

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    Not going to happen soon. Mirrorless cameras clearly showed that getting lens closer to sensor and decreasing the sensor size works only well with wide-angle lenses. Fast telephoto lenses are still big and weight a lot.

    I am personally happy with my tiny (APS-C) mirrorless Fuji X-E2. I mostly shoot with a 35mm f/1.4 lens. The lens is super light (186g) compared to full frame equivalents and the image quality matches Nikon/Canon/Sigma(Art) 35mm lenses. However the fast f/2.8 telephoto lenses to mirrorless APS-C systems weight almost the same as full frame equivalents, and cost almost the same (1500e+). This is an indication that small sensor cameras, including phones will never be perfect fit for telephoto ranges (300mm+).
     
  10. Pressure

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    That's the thing.

    The only good camera is the one you have on you.

    Heck, I have that very lens myself (the Canon variant) but I rarely walk around with it. It's a very specific lens, after all.
     
  11. wco81

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    I've been carrying my iPhone with my DSLR on trips, mostly to use for stabilized videos, time lapses and slow mo videos. Also panos.

    Yes all of this could be done with post processing but it's a time sink. I do take bracketed photos and overlapping photos with my DSLR so I can stitch them. But I rarely go back and do so.

    And I don't always carry a tripod either. Or some stabilization rig like a steadicam for my DSLR if I want to shoot videos.

    I still shoot mostly with my DSLR when I travel but supplement it with iPhone.

    There was a 60 Minutes piece on Apple earlier this year. They said they have 800 people in the division which develops the camera. Don't know what the split is between hardware and software engineers in that group. I'm sure there are chip designers too. It would be very difficult for Canon and Nikon could compete with that as far as software and chip development. Their revenues are falling because most DSLRs made in the last 5 years, maybe 10 years, are very good so people don't have an overriding need to buy new bodies or lenses every year.

    Of course they can't overcome physics so they have to do more with software to compensate for small sensors in thin devices.
     
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  12. patsu

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    Was going to order a 7+ for myself but company's going to pass me an iPhone 7 this time. All the 7+ allotment have been taken. >8^/

    Will be paying attention to the P3 color profile + camera.
    Also curious about the new Home button.

    Will also be getting the AirPods. Some said the long mic helps to keep the AirPods in the ears. Will try to shake my head wildly to test the claim. :)
     
    #52 patsu, Sep 11, 2016
    Last edited: Sep 11, 2016
  13. Arwin

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    For me it has been the wires generally pulling the earbuds out. I went with 6 Plus last year and the size is perfect for me (I have large hands and pockets).
     
  14. Krumme

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    Iphone 7 launch viborg dk. Not like expected as you can see. 2 customers:
     
  15. ProspectorPete

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    What's your take on it now? Taking Apple still takes >90% of the entire mobile industry profit
     
  16. Silent_Buddha

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    Unlikely, iOS marketshare continues to drop YoY.

    http://www.idc.com/promo/smartphone-market-share/vendor

    There's usually a bit of a recovery when a new iOS device is launched but it doesn't stop the overall loss of market share. In 2014 they held ~18.5% of the market. In 2016 that dropped to ~12.5% of the market.

    Losing marketshare isn't necessarily all bad though if you are still shipping the same or more units. But on the YoY basis, they shipped 5.3% less units in Q3, than they did in the prior year's Q3. So they aren't just losing market share, they're also declining in units shipped.

    Similar to how they eventually became a margin player in PC computing (Windows/Mac market share) with a fervent and somewhat influential user base, the same appears to be happening with smartphones. Except replace Windows/MacOS with Android/iOS.

    The big difference is that in some countries, iOS maintains a very strong presence. And while iOS no longer commands 90% of the industry revenue (when including app purchases), it's likely still significantly higher than their 12.5% unit shipment share due to their higher share of the market in wealthier countries as well as their higher ASP.

    Regards,
    SB
     
  17. wco81

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    Stock has hit all-time highs in recent weeks in anticipation of iPhone 8 or whatever they will be calling the tenth-anniversary iPhone.

    Warren Buffet has made a ton of money on a recent investment because he observed his granddaughter and friends were engrossed in their iPhones, so he thinks of it as a "sticky" product.

    Most of the volume in the smart phone market goes to cheap devices sold in China and India, as well as in developed countries where average selling price is low.

    But Apple commands high margins (probably the highest) and ASPs, skimming the cream or the most affluent consumers. Of course Google is trying to get in on some of that market segment with the Pixel and Samsung, despite problems in the past year, will still target the segment, as well as shipping lower-priced devices.
     
  18. ProspectorPete

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    91% of all mobile sector profits on this entire planet

    http://www.cnbc.com/2016/11/23/appl...nt-of-global-smartphone-profits-research.html

    Apple is not a margin player in PC computing, Apple literally has 60% of all PC industry profits:
    https://ped30.com/2016/11/03/apple-dediu-macbook-pro/

    These are the most recent figures.

    All other companies are literally fighting for scraps, with LG, Sony, and many others even losing money every year on the mobile sector. They have not made a profit in years. Guess those companies are greedy and want too much market share ;-)
     
  19. ProspectorPete

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    Apple is still doomed though; they can't innovate, Apple Watch has less than 80% market share, the new MacBooks suck, the iPhone can't even use a headphone jack, while Google Nexus can. Also Surface Studio is true innovation, while Apple is false innovation. Apple processors suck because they only have 2 cores, while samsung has 8 cores. Same for memory: iOS 1-3GB. Android: 4-6GB. The lists are endless; Apple is doomed, ask experts on the internet, everyone is going to agree :)
     
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  20. Silent_Buddha

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    Read the report more closely.

    The single largest smartphone manufacturer isn't included in the report on smartphones. I wonder why?

    You can find Samsung's financial reports at their website.

    Ah, it all starts to become clear if we look at their financial reports. It's basically using a financial quarter that was impacted by the whole exploding Samsung Note fiasco.

    Here's 3 quarters worth of data along with YoY numbers so you can see the statistical anomaly of that one single quarter.

    Q2 FY2016 - 4.32 trillion KRW or ~3.78 billion USD at today's exchange rate.
    Q2 FY2015 - 2.76 trillion KRW or ~2.41 billion USD at today's exchange rate.

    Q3 FY2016 - 0.10 trillion KRW or ~8.7 million USD at today's exchange rate.
    Q3 FY2015 - 2.40 trillion KRW or ~2.09 billion USD at today's exchange rate.

    Q4 FY2016 - 2.50 trillion KRW or ~2.17 billion USD at today's exchange rate.
    Q4 FY2015 - 2.23 trillion KRW or ~1.94 billion USD at today's exchange rate.

    Also note that unlike Apple, mobile app sales profits go to Google and not he hardware manufacturers, unless the manufacturer isn't using Google's App store. So, I wonder whether Google is included in their report or not?

    So sure, if you wish to cherry pick numbers, Apple has 91% of all smartphone operating profits on the entire planet. Just realize that it's only true for 1 fiscal quarter.

    So yes, it still supports what I stated. It's not over 90% and it's far higher than their 12.5% unit share of the market.

    Let's take a quick look at this.

    Looking at just one random hardware OEM, Lenovo.

    Last year they had a disappointing year and only made an estimated 1.6 billion USD in profits. Good thing too otherwise Apple wouldn't look so good as the year prior they made 6.6 billion USD in profits.

    Except one thing bothers me. For data available to him at the time, he couldn't be using the Fiscal year data of 1.6 billion USD for Lenovo as that data didn't end until after he published that report? So what data is he cherry picking? Some hybrid period of time that happens to be favorable for Apple?

    But let's ignore that and look at another hardware vendor. Hewlett Packard. They made 9.0 billion USD in profit. Uh oh. What? How can this be? HP must be lying in their financial filing to the SEC right? Because someone claiming Apple has 60% of all PC hardware operating profit can't possibly be doing something weird to manipulate the numbers, right?

    And this isn't even including Dell which is now privately held and doesn't need to file numbers with the SEC. Nor does it include other smaller but still profitable hardware vendors (Asus, Acer, NEC, Toshiba, etc.). BTW - Sony are no longer in the PC business. They exited that market about 2-3 years ago.

    I'd be interested to read his report to see what mental gymnastics he's jumping through to make that claim, but I'm not about to give him any money.

    Regards,
    SB
     
    #60 Silent_Buddha, Mar 8, 2017
    Last edited: Mar 8, 2017
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