Impact of XBox One X on the industry and competition *spawn

Discussion in 'Console Industry' started by Shifty Geezer, Dec 15, 2017.

  1. Silent_Buddha

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    I'm not sure you can be said at the moment.

    It's entirely possible and quite likely that the XBO would be performing significantly worse in the marketplace if the XBO-X did not exist. Thus it's not really a Zero Sum versus the pro as we don't know how XBO would be selling if the XBO-X did not launch.

    But I think it's fair to say that it would be worse. With no XBO-X, the base model falls even further behind as it would also have to compete against the much more capable PS4-P.

    As well, I still don't agree that the XBO-X is just a mid gen refresh. I still think it's the start of the concept of rolling generations. The PS4-P on the other hand I'm starting to concede is just a mid gen refresh. It's not powerful enough to be a half-gen console and would be disappointingly underpowered as the base console for the next "generation" of devices. And unlike Microsoft, Sony aren't doing any work on cross gen compatibility for games.

    So, while I still believe XBO-X is the start of rolling generations for Microsoft, I think PS4-P is just a sidenote WRT to traditional console generations for Sony.

    XBO-X in this paradigm doesn't need to sell well this generation. It's the premium device that draws in premium dollars. The next "generation" is when it would become the base console and sales would be expected to expand as a new premium device is introduced. Repeat ad infinitum. At all times there should exist a cheap console for the masses and a premium device for the "elite" gamers.

    IMO, that's better than half the generation being expensive, half the generation being cheap.

    Regards,
    SB
     
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  2. Shifty Geezer

    Shifty Geezer uber-Troll!
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    What's the model branding of this Xbox Generations concept? Typically you have numbered generations and everyone knows what follows what. If XBox One X is part of the next gen, but Xbox One isn't, which this the next Xbox called that ties to Xbox One X to show they're continuous but distances itself from Xbox One? Or does the Xbox One X get renamed to something (sane like Xbox 4) when the Xbox 5 releases?
     
  3. Xbat

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    In my opinion if they still have the Xbox X as a limiting factor for games made for the next Xbox it will be a disaster with the limited CPU in the X. I think the CPU in the the next consoles will be one of the biggest differentiators and allow for some next gen gameplay, hopefully.
     
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  4. iroboto

    iroboto Daft Funk
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    Developers will ultimately choose on Xbox where their games go. I’m pretty sure that Phil has gone with supporting all the hardware available even when a new generation releases. So instead of forcing people to move, the developers get the choice of where they want to target and how and leave it to them to make it work.

    They still have under utilized GPU side draw call submission customizations that could offload a lot of CPU cycles.

    I’m not saying it’s a reality but next gen graphics will require more and more draw calls to get more complex scenes than we have today. If you don’t use executeIndirect or equivalent your CPU is going to take that load on. Doesn’t seem like an efficient use of a CPU to me.
     
  5. iroboto

    iroboto Daft Funk
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    The timing of the mid gen refreshes were interesting to say the least. I know we put a lot of pressure around node sizes, but I can’t help but feel as though it could be tied to the display adoption.

    This gen released way late, and 1080p was a standard. 4K is the new standard and both consoles released to support that. I think however the adoption of 4K is perhaps not as fast as both companies assumed, possibly dragging this gen out further.

    Marketing 4K as a baseline resolution for all your platform when few of your users can leverage it just seems off to me. We know the baseline resolution can’t be 1080p again right ?
    In this respect the only advantage MS had here is that their console supports 4K better than their competition. They are in no rush to release another console when they are ahead in this regard and while waiting for the market to move to newer displays.
     
  6. Recop

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    In my opinion, porting a X game to the XB1 would be less problematic than porting a next-gen game to the X.
     
  7. iroboto

    iroboto Daft Funk
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    Marginally. It’s likely that if you can, it’s the same effort. If you can’t, you just can’t at all.
     
  8. iroboto

    iroboto Daft Funk
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    In another thread we landed on the trinity of power, price, and games as being the largest determinant factor in console purchases. And we could just about roll up everything else (in an ecosystem) into being modifiers that directly affect power, price and games.

    At the base system level, xbox at one point in time, didn't have power, didn't have price, and arguably to the customers of PS3, didn't really have any games (coming off the trail end of 360). And to 360 customers, they didn't have power or price, so why not hop over?
    That was where PS4 was really coming out on top here.

    Since then, the only major things that have happened on the base platform experience has been that
    a) the price difference, which now works out in favour of Xbox (especially consider the subscription passes)
    b) the power difference isn't nearly as large of a deal as the launch had made it out to be. Both platforms run the same settings for a majority of multiplatform games, the only major difference being only resolution, in which xbox is missing about 30% pixels in most scenarios, though sometimes it does manage to reach parity, often at some hiccups compared to PS4.
    c) the game difference has worsened in xbox's favour since launch, BC has dampened some of the pain I suspect, I assume not substantial though.

    On the mid gen refresh side
    a) the price difference on the units is there, but it is a fixed cost, the marginal costs of ownership is cheaper on xbox due to subscriptions services like EA Access and Game Pass. You're looking at 4-6 exclusives a year combined with any other 3P title launching on it, combined with other 100s of probably older titles. That's good savings there compared to purchasing 2 games at regular price of 59.99. You can also cancel game pass if you aren't interested in playing any of those games. so effectively cheaper than buying and selling as well.
    b) Power difference between the mid gen refreshes is significantly larger than that of the base systems. Consistently more than 30% pixels on 1X, also seeing a lot of more higher graphical settings on the X when looking at 3P titles. The best place to play 3rd Party games is undeniably on Xbox unless you're specifically looking at outliers (which exist, just not many enough to formulate a strong argument with)
    c) the game difference has worsened in xbox's favour since launch, though BC and the 1X enhanced titles probably makes it not as bad as it would be. If they can continue on belting out Xbox's greatest fan favourites into 4K enhanced, this will continue to be good for them.

    So I think if you look at how xbox is selling comparatively to itself since YoY, it's been on the rise. When we account for seasonality and stuff, and Xbox is doing pretty good compared to how it started. So I'm not sure I would say they are tone deaf to not understanding the games concept, they certainly understand games are important, but games also takes years to develop. And while they have been waiting for that 'killer app', they've been working on some things to keep themselves in the game. Nothing that will turn the tide in their favour, but building that foundation again, to set themselves up for success for when the killer apps arrive (if ever) or to transition to next gen.
     
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  9. mrcorbo

    mrcorbo Foo Fighter
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    I think the rolling generation concept creates more problems than it solves.

    Maintaining BC (with improved performance of BC titles on the new hardware) is a good enough way to "smooth out" generational transitions. Why hamstring the ability for developers to fully take advantage of your new hardware and also lose some of the incentive to upgrade to that new hardware (next-gen exclusives)?

    I think a better idea, if the platform holders wanted to reassure console buyers that their purchases would maintain value, would be to actively sponsor buyback programs at retailers and establishing a set trade-in value that they could then change over time as market conditions warrant. IMO, this adequately mitigates the major pain point of allowing next-gen exclusives, which is people investing in the previous gen having a shorter window of usefulness of their purchase, by directly compensating them for it.
     
  10. liolio

    liolio Aquoiboniste
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    IMO the XB1X will teach a lesson on poor management and "me too" or "dick contest type of practices. It is not because you have money to spend that you should spend it.
    MSFT have done lots of things right since the launch of the XB1 foremost on the software side BUT I'm convinced that the XB1X was not the product they needed at this point in time to some extend neither was the XB1S.

    Especially after MSFT showing its software prowess allowing XB1 games to run on a significantly different architecture the XB1X, I'm more convinced than ever that MSFT needed to design a more cost effective and power system meant to run XB1 software. It could have use some performances headroom for improve OS and BC functions, etc.

    I believe the XB1X will have no significant impact on Sony business whereas it hinders MSFT freedom to react to Sony initiative (if they were to make one), a half success/half failure can also further alter the brand perception abroad /outside USA.

    EDIT
    The XB1X main merit is that it shows case MSFT impressive software abilities, Sony knows that going forward MSFT will be able to offer ta launch with an impressive library of existing titles (improved or not), MSFT offers now a PC like environment and that is imo huge as for the XBX by self...
     
    #30 liolio, Apr 29, 2018
    Last edited: Apr 29, 2018
  11. iroboto

    iroboto Daft Funk
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    I'm confused on why you feel this way. You're going to have to walk me through your thought process on what they could have released that would have been better but to still have the same predicament with the 1st party games.

    They know its takes a lot of time to build studios and release products. So 1P software wasn't going to come for years. They have no advantage in power, and no advantage in games. 4K is just starting and Sony refused to put a lot of effort there, so by cornering off that piece for themselves can't be considered dick waving.

    Once again, RDR2, the next GTA If it's this gen, or a 4K upgrade to GTAV, Anthem, Cyberpunk, Battlefield, Call of Duty, and all sorts of 3P games and studios loved by tons of people. If you can't win in 1P, you've got to do you best to present 3P games in the best of light and have that sell your ecosystem. It's not really a dick waving contest when you're playing these games at more than 30% more resolution, better frame rates, and better graphical settings. It's also quieter, and smaller, runs older BC games at 4K.

    How is this not a desirable console? The ratio between the base model and the X1X is in favour of X1X when compared to PS4 : PS4Pro.
     
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  12. mrcorbo

    mrcorbo Foo Fighter
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    I disagree. I think both were necessary to replace the image of the original One in people's minds as the pinnacle of what the Xbox hardware team were able to achieve. Having the original One be both that big *and* that weak was not a good look.

    The One X is a halo product. It wasn't supposed to turn the gen around. It was supposed to show what Xbox team could produce when the goal was, "Make the best gaming hardware possible at a reasonable price point.", which was clearly *not* the goal of the original One.
     
  13. liolio

    liolio Aquoiboniste
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    Well it is pretty clear that the PS4 Pro for foremost for the VR which as I though can't get much traction in the average gaming population.
    They repurposed it, and sell it at a decent price and time.
    Clearly MSFT after the XB1 launch debacle and meltdown in market share worldwide has engaged into imo (you may disagree) mindless strategy "do more at any cost".
    The consoles are now in the cycle for late adopters with overall cheaper models MSFT is out there in the cold with a 499€ system and another one they clearly have not stood behind (or imo properly designed).

    XB1X might end up a halo product though clearly not what msft needed. Imo MSFT had a bullet up its sleeve and that was software. THey had a disadvantage that was performances, competiting on price was a much better choice. As for the PS4 PRO its merits and its succes (imo it won't change the dynamics of this gen either) that was Sony business not MSFT.
     
  14. BRiT

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    I still not seeing you answer the question asked of you. You are simply saying what they did was wrong but not offering what would have been right, which does nothing to promote useful discussions. Please address the following: "What exactly did MS need to do in 2016 or 2017 instead?"
     
  15. liolio

    liolio Aquoiboniste
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    In 2016 they needed a redesigned XB1 so it can be produced cheaper than the PS4 and so MSFT can have a commendable advantage in that regard against Sony. THey had the software coming together (BC) and the users base were still transitionig from the PS360. If I set the hardware aside clearly announcing the 1S and the 1X was not reassuring to people hesitating to go with the Xbox.
    They did not had to react to Sony move like Nintendo did not reacted to many Sega initiatives for example. The PS4 PRO changed nothing to this gen dynamic, the move was even disputable (whether they did it for VR or to cater to hard core gamers or both /insert other reason) BUT SOny will get no shit for it because ultimately the system launched at the right moment and at a sane price as for com Sony made it look like a coherent strategy (whatever one's pov on the matter). They are also leading comfortably with a perceived 1P advantage /commitment against MSFT.
     
    #35 liolio, Apr 29, 2018
    Last edited: Apr 29, 2018
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  16. DrJay24

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    You know this how?
     
  17. Shifty Geezer

    Shifty Geezer uber-Troll!
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    Simple metric comparison of how much better XB1X is than XB1 versus how much better PS4P is than PS4.
     
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  18. liolio

    liolio Aquoiboniste
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    I've not seen the numbers my self and I see no point in dizcussing them thought one has to be careful with stats. Because you can do stats does not mean they are relevant. For example say the targets of both the pro and X over lap (enthusiastic people) then clearly ansimple ratio won't give valid information. In the months following a system launch there are usually a relevant enough number of enthusiasts to slightly blur the extend tonwhich the general public perceives a give product.

    Same thing about the impact of the X on the Xbox brand sales at large, by eye balling figures this year are within the usual sales of the system since launch for the month (Marsh) it is tough to much further that. More day /more time is needed.

    Edit got the two last posts wrong, I though you guys were discussing sales figures not perfect. My bad.
     
  19. BRiT

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    @DrJay24 they are talking hardware performance increases over their respective base model.
     
  20. iroboto

    iroboto Daft Funk
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    Because NPD continues to indicate that X1X is having a major factor in the Xbox family of sales per month. We see no such mention on the 4Pro side of things.

    #3

    2018 YoY by month:
    Jan +48%
    Feb +44%
    Mar +24%

    No exclusives, no games remember right?
    Easy to pinpoint here.
     
    #40 iroboto, Apr 29, 2018
    Last edited: Apr 29, 2018
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