Impact of XBox One X on the industry and competition *spawn

Discussion in 'Console Industry' started by Shifty Geezer, Dec 15, 2017.

  1. Shifty Geezer

    Shifty Geezer uber-Troll!
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    Totally disagree with that. Not sure what you mean by "so much discussion" but PS4 has been out four years. That's a fairly natural time to start talking about its successor which could theoretically appear next year, or certainly be announced. You can find bits of discussion of previous console's successors even just a year or two after those consoles release. Which makes for quite entertaining reading. ;)

    https://www.geek.com/games/xbox-2-features-551855/ (2003)
    XB1X isn't putting any pressure on Sony. Until they start losing market share to MS (potentially PS4/P buyers getting and XB1X instead) they can operate irrespective. Here's Sony saying XBox might limit PS2's shelf life...
    https://www.geek.com/games/sony-ps2-has-limited-lifespan-546281/
    Oh no! Xbox is more powerful! We need to replace PS2 ASAP!!! Hang on, we're still selling truck loads. What's the rush? Oh yeah, greatest selling console of all time and most money EVAR. You don't have to be the biggest or fastest to win a market. This is common knowledge. No-one in this business is stupid enough not to know how it works now and to rush headlong into a SEGA-style emergency console. PS4 is making Sony money, selling stronger every year, so PS5 will come when Sony are good and ready.
     
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  2. iroboto

    iroboto Daft Funk
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    I would position myself as partially disagreeing with the statement.

    The reality is anytime a PS4 user buys a X1X and decides to make that their 3P machine, that's going to be a huge loss in revenue from that acquisition. You don't want to be an exclusive only machine. This directly affects their bottom line, and Sony has reacted appropriately this year by moving all their game announcements from PSX to TGS, and making the pricing low on both PS4 and 4Pro to impulse purchase territory.

    Even though they are the market leader, that doesn't necessarily mean they would be happy with reduced revenue, especially if they want this generation to drag out, each PS4 player that converts to X1X for 3P is a significant reduction in life time value per customer lost in this way. If you were expecting a customer to hold onto the console and buy all the games forecasting for 8 years; you just got your forecast chopped in half.

    Just my 2 cents.

    Not saying Sony isn't enjoying their lead, but I see no reason to pretend as if X1X didn't pose a threat to their revenue base. It certainly does. They know they have enjoyed a huge lead due to power differences, a great deal of xbox players can be going back home now. Sony will never lose their core. But it doesn't mean it can't lose those who aren't brand loyal. A lot of gamers may trumpet 1P as being the #1 reason why PS4 is better (now that they lost their performance crown), yet I do not see 1P Sony titles hitting the top 10 this month.

    Just some things to consider there. Sony has been successful this long because it hasn't been brushing off their competition. The value proposition that MS brings with XBox in general is of good value in its current state.

    If I were Sony, I'd be super worried about X1X if your PS5 was around the 6 TF GPU mark. People can cry all they want about CPU. It's not going to make that big of a difference, not when Xbox still has some measurable CPU performance savings features built into the hardware still being largely unused by developers.

    CPU can still largely be offloaded to network servers and GPU side dispatch will likely reduce rendering overhead massively.

    I'm fairly confident X1X will be able to put up quite well against a future PS5. Unless that future PS5 has 3-4x the GPU power of Scorpio. Long wait for that to hit $399 though.
     
    #2 iroboto, Dec 15, 2017
    Last edited: Dec 15, 2017
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  3. Shifty Geezer

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    Any suggestion this is happening to any noteworthy degree? Certainly in the past when a new, more powerful platform has come along, gamers generally haven't jumped ship because the non-performance factors that made them choose Platform A in the first place and still relevant when Platform B++ releases.


    There's nothing they can do about it, so no point worrying. If XB1X costs $250 with 6TF when PS5 would release, Sony can release a comparable machine at a comparable price. Or delay until PS5 is ready to blow people's socks off. The chances of bleeding their existing PS4 user base to XB1X is about the same as losing their PS2 users to the far more powerful Xbox 5,6,7 years into its lifecycle.

    It just doesn't happen, by and large. People buy a platform, build up a library, then wait for the next gen to see which one to get. A few more hardcore gamers will buy multiple machines but the suggestion here is existing PS4 owners will buy an XB1X instead of a Pro, lose their current library, and then...hang onto the X1X when next-gen launches? It's all so considerably off the normal pattern of events, I can't understand the basis for this thinking. :-?
     
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  4. iroboto

    iroboto Daft Funk
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    My assumptions here is that while the platform can grow, the market is still limited. PS4 enjoyed a great number of Xbox users transferring over from last gen. They may not have been happy with the previous offerings but are happier now. These same folks who target high end performance are likely to consider a 4K TV and the console that would pair with it best would be X1X.

    Not saying this is a landslide victory or anything. But it would be wrong to think revenue from licensing fees would have no impact at all as a result of X1X being released.

    Sony’s first party software and greatest strength is mainly single player games. But that also makes for a weaker reason to pay for PSN+ If the competitor has more MP offerings and better 3P experience it makes more sense to pay for subscriptions there.

    Just looking st things value wise. It’s will likely play out as you write it. I don’t deny you that. But I don’t think Sony was arrogant about this Black Friday.
     
  5. Shifty Geezer

    Shifty Geezer uber-Troll!
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    Because it was a generational shift. They spent $400+ for a new console and new library. Next gen they'll be in the same boat, facing a $400+ decision on which console to buy. But X1X and PS4Pro are not a generational shift, and I can't imagine anyone jumping platform mid-gen for the rudimentary improvements versus the rival. It doesn't add up. Someone leaving behind...$500 of 360 games and all their XBLive scores and buddies to buy a $400 PS4 makes sense, because it's next gen and those old games are done with (for now - BC gets more attractive the older the games get ;)). Who's going to leave behind $350 of PS4 games and all their PSN buddies to buy an XB1X that'll play all the same games as PS4Pro just a bit better? The cost for that small improvement is totally outweighed by the losses. We don't mind those losses on a new generation because everything's so much better, we're moving on, but mid-gen the advances aren't there. That's $500 to get and XB1X and lose all your library and PSN junk, or $350 for a PS4 keeping all your games and PSN junk and playing them in higher quality. The jump ship argument doesn't wash. It didn't wash for PS2 owners jumping to the vastly more powerful XB, and it doesn't wash for PS4 owners jumping to XB1X.

    What we're left with is upgraders and new console owners. XB1 owners will get XB1X as it progresses their current experience. New consumers choosing between XB1X and PS4Pro are a small niche of more affluent purchases, where the majority of buyers this far into a generation are price conscious.

    And as XB1X lowers in price over time, the time to wait for PS5 (and even XBN) is lower, meaning less reason to buy one if you're the sort of person wanting that high end performance.

    Not being afraid doesn't make one arrogant. The only place XB1X is really challenging PS4 is new 4K owners and a very small fringe of 'elite' console gamers who'll either trade up or buy both. Nothing about XB1X is likely to pressure Sony's PS5 plans. They aren't facing a possible mass exodus undermining the interest or potential customer base for PS5.
     
  6. DSoup

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    The quote seemed focussed on the Xbox's HDD and networking but the original PS2 had an space in the chassis for a network adapter and HDD expansion unit - I know I had one and only networked games used it. But as you say, Xbox didn't stop PS2 being the best selling console up until that point.

    Let's not get hyperbolic, for there to be a "huge loss in revenue" a significant portion of the PS4 owning community would need to a) buy an Xbox or PC and b) start buying third party games on that alternative platform. Software sales over the next 6-12 months will show whether this is the case or not. I'm predicting it's not because I've long believed (due to complete lack of evidence) that the performance console market is relatively small.

    The PS4 launched cheaper than Xbox One and with more performance, with much anti-Microsoft sentiment due to TV, DRM and Kinect messaging and that still wasn't a landslide victory for Sony. There is zero prospect for Xbox One X to turn the tide anytime soon. Performance in any market you can name is a niche market. Options are great, I like the option of price or performance and for me it's a no brainer but I'm under no illusion that I'm part of a significant market. I'm not and everybody like me who regularly posts to these forums is an outlier, an insignificant statistical anomaly. We are not representative of the wider market. :nope:
     
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  7. iroboto

    iroboto Daft Funk
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    I mean no disrespect to anyone as you have written lengthy posts, and I'm in all day meetings interviewing candidates ( lol priorities), so it's not that i'm not wanting to respond. Just barely finding break time between sessions here.

    My key statement here is I don't want to overstate the importance of X1X, as you have written, it's a niche machine. I also don't want to understate it's importance though.
    If you forecast TCV for a customer for 8 years, and they made the switch at year 4. That is a 50% loss. That is massive on the individual TCV, not massive to your revenue base since it's not likely to be all that much. (as per @DSoup note of lets not get hyperbolic). I agree on these assessments by you both..

    @Shifty Geezer As per X1X and PS5 being the same TFLOP being a problem, it's a problem for Sony because it's a marketing problem, you're trying to sell your customers a 'next generation device', but it's being tied to the hip with X1X making it a last gen device. That's where I saw the issue. Your other commentary is spot on. It's hard to pretend/market you have a next generation device when it has the same specs as something already out 1-2 years earlier that is selling the same games as PS4.
     
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  8. Shifty Geezer

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    That's quite the assumption though, that Sony will launch later than XB1X but at no performance advantage. That also seems a different argument to Rangers' which is the one I'm disputing. Looking at your argument, *IF* PS5 is no more powerful than XB1X...well then you have an A vs B machine competition kinda like normal, only with XB1X having loads of software, but also probably no exclusives. *IF* PS5 is no more powerful *AND* XB1X is significantly cheaper, PS5 would have trouble differentiating itself positively, I can agree with.

    Right here, right now, the impact of XB1X on PS5, the pressure that it's feeling according to Rangers, is realistically zilch. ;) I don't think there's more talk of PS5 as he suggests. I don't think consolers have been wooed off PS and Sony are disappearing into the background - the material sales of PS4 show that's not happening. I don't think the execs at Sony are pacing up and down mumbling, "6 Teraflops. 6 Teraflops. What the hell do we do now??" And I think by the time Sony are ready to launch PS5, either it'll have been a long time with lots of tired PS4's around and the machine will be a significant improvement, or there'll be enough advances elsewhere (CPU, RAM BW, SSD) to make a significant difference at a nearer release. I very much doubt that Sony will just roll out a PS5 barely any more than a PS4++/XB1X+ and call it a day and hope the market is game.
     
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  9. Cyan

    Cyan orange
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    So...after a few months since the console was released we aren't seeing a huge change. BC and 4k are great and unique X1X features, but....

    This little news makes me happy, since Albert Penello has left Xbox.

    http://www.gameinformer.com/b/news/...lo-leaves-microsoft-after-eighteen-years.aspx

    Good riddance! And close the door after you go out.

    Xbox marketing has been HORRIBLE. They haven't been able to sell an ounce of enthusiasm. They are boringggggggggggggggggggggg. Predictable. Hype goes down the drain with Penello at the head of MS marketing. I'd also relegate Major Nelson, but maybe that's just me.

    You have to sell crazy ideas. Dual GPU dreams, make something feel magic, not something as "serious" or as "boringly predictable" as they have been making the Xbox in the last few years. I won't miss you Penello.
     
  10. AlBran

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    Should we put Misterxmedia in charge ?!
    /Hudson

    o_O
     
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  11. Shifty Geezer

    Shifty Geezer uber-Troll!
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    Is that thing still going?
     
  12. iroboto

    iroboto Daft Funk
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    Never checked but I imagine it should have been on the decline since the release of X1X.
    edit: it's largely dead since the release of X1X. Aside from the 1 thread the owners keep posting to (sticky news thread) all their other threads died off around 2017.

    I think whenever XB2 is announced, people could be pleasantly surprised that their X1X will still be supported or become the new baseline for exclusives.

    And I suspect games are still allowed to target XBO. With the way their APIs (DX feature levels and DXR) are structured and all the Xboxes supporting the command processor changes for GPU side dispatch, there may be some more life in XBO yet. Graphically no, but CPU maybe, at least for some titles. Intelligent delivery would support varying levels of assets needed so that games can scale properly digitally.
     
    #12 iroboto, Apr 26, 2018
    Last edited: Apr 27, 2018
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  13. Cyan

    Cyan orange
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    hah, he put a bit of soul! :happy2: That's the issue I find with the Xbox as of lately. They lack the passion for anything. The division would need a Peter Moore. Passionate, technical people, who know how to sell their ideas. Even myself would be a better marketing director than Albert Penello and the likes. My XB1 dream was having a weaker GPU, but 2 GPUs and a true 3D console -I purchased a 3DTV just before XB1 launch in 2013-. You need to sell dreams.

    Peter Moore was the life and soul of the division, then there came the creeps.

    Fans were selling the Xbox better than executives. It was particularly bad in Spain, for instance, where Lidia Pitzalis was doing NOTHING!

    As an example, they invited a generalist games magazine (Hobby Consolas, also called Sony Consolas 'cos they seem to work for the master, Sony) director to an Xbox event and while in the event he had a box in his hands all the time, he opened it and he publicised a PS4 peripheral! (headset) In a Xbox event, with all his expenses paid! :|:mad::(:mad::mad:

    The Xbox staff, a guy who was a bigwig in the Xbox community here just smiled and said nothing. :-( It's no wonder that some time afterwards he and Lidia Pitzalis were "invited" to leave the Xbox division.

    The incident can be seen here, from the 45 seconds mark to 1 min 15 seconds mark.



    The Xbox One X could be publicised in a different way. It's a monster sounds....meh.

    Plus, I very much like Richard Leadbetter, he is soooo good at his job and technical things. That being said, some of my online colleagues dont know who he is and call him "the guy of the shirt". What I mean is that they tried to sell the hype and enthusiasm around the Xbox One X presenting the Xbox One X in a technical light, which is ok, just a bit of extra enthusiasm around the idea of the console wouldn't be bad. A video showing the goodies with Richard Leadbetter talking about the technical side and amazing gaming moments in between, could do the trick.

    Not to mention that the best game in many many years from Microsoft Game Studios is Ori, imho. And it is not a true exclusive --in fact, I am playing the GoG version on my PC.
     
  14. ToTTenTranz

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    Is it the publication's fault though?
    Spain and Portugal are historically the countries where the Playstation consoles had the highest marketshare in the West, and second only to Japan worldwide IIRC.
    This isn't a problem with Microsoft's team not being great in the past couple of years. It's a problem with Microsoft not caring about the Iberian Peninsula for the last 17 years.




    As for the marketing team's performance of Xbox, I actually think they're pretty good. Larry Hryb / Major Nelson is widely appreciated and Phil Spencer sends all the right signs in every interview he makes. Long gone are the times of Don Mattrick who seemed to be terrible at everything.

    Xbox's dark cloud over them is how bad their 1st-party lineup looks compared to Playstation's.
     
    #14 ToTTenTranz, Apr 28, 2018
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  15. Pixel

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    edited: added rangers post
    Sony has no need to replace the PS4.
    Last fiscal year 2017 they made the equivalent of 14.7billion USD (converting from 1694.8 billion yen) from gaming, a 6.3% increase year on year despite even the fact that the yen has decreased in value. Sony has also stated for the next fiscal year of 2018 (April1st 2018 to March 31st 2019) they expect even higher revenue thanks in part to an even larger install base than the prevoius fiscal year and strong 1st party titles)
    https://www.sony.net/SonyInfo/IR/library/presen/er/16q4_sony.pdf


    Back in fiscal 2011 they made 805 billion yen, and that declined 12.2% to 707.1 billion yen the following fiscal year 2012
    https://www.sony.net/SonyInfo/IR/library/presen/er/12q4_sony.pdf

    So you can clearly see Sony is generating over double the revenue compared with fiscal 2011 & 2012 and is on an upward trajectory every year regarding revenue (and profit were a small fraction compared to now which I haven't listed but you can see for yourself in the annual reports), whereas PS3 was seeing declining revenue towards the last years of its lifecycle.

    Sony is in the meat and potatoes of its lifecycle and its only getting better.
     
    #15 Pixel, Apr 28, 2018
    Last edited: Apr 29, 2018
  16. Cyan

    Cyan orange
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    One can suppose they favour where the bread and butter is, but sometimes they go beyond the limits of decency. Hobby Consolas always was the most popular magazine here and they weren't as biased in the past. Some of that is the publication's fault, especially that David Martinez showing a PS4 peripheral on the most important Xbox even in Spain. :frown:
    well, the historical trajectories of Portugal and Spain with MS Xbox don't differ much, and in fact I wonder whether the Xbox division ceo is the same for Portugal and Spain or not. Btw, who is the Xbox division CEO in Portugal? Dunno who is the new CEO in Spain, but I think that probably there is only a CEO for the entire Iberian Peninsula. :?:

    In regards to the marketshare, here (I live very very close to Portugal, and the fact I consider them siblings) we all lived that influence.. :smile2:

    I started in the Megadrive/SNES era. My best childhood friend went from that to buying a PS1, then the PS2. I played those consoles with fair views, 'cos I was a PC user after all, in regards to games and whatever. That changed a little, 'cos one of my friends who had a PlayStation was a bit jealous of my PC and I remember him trembling like a leaf in the wind when he first saw it.

    Some time afterwards he used to try to lure my friends to play his PlayStation friends, when those friends preferred to play on the PC. That's where my certain disdain for Sony esteems from.
    the last 17 years X-D means the entire Xbox lifetime in Europe... Yes, they don't seem to care. Many games aren't dubbed, some of them even exclusive games. Things like Xbox Rewards don't work here.
    well, I don't share your enthusiasm with Major Nelson, but maybe that's just me. Most Xbox fans I know like him.

    As for the marketing strategy, I think you are wrong. It's okay to show the console in Digital Foundry, but you have to sell enthusiasm and have some soul. I mean, this was my favourite moment in the whole Xbox One X presentation, and that's actually very well done!

    [​IMG]
     
    #16 Cyan, Apr 28, 2018
    Last edited by a moderator: Apr 28, 2018
  17. Cyan

    Cyan orange
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    oh man, what does this have to do with the impact of Xbox One X? I mean...,what the heck? Good numbers though, despite Sony being the ugly duckling in the past generation
     
  18. Pixel

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    It was a response to Ranger's post that X1X is putting pressure on Sony to release PS5, and a followup and agreement with Shifty's reply that X1X isn't putting that sort of pressure on Sony.
     
  19. MrFox

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    Well, from the title question....

    Impact on competiton: The numbers provided above indicates the X, unveiled mid-2016 and launched in 2017, failed to slow down PS4 sales. Neither from announcing 6TF so early, nor from actual launch period. Having more power for more money has been a zero sum versus the Pro. Launching late diminishes further any potential impact until a true next gen comes out.

    Impact on the industry: Mid-gen is just an extension of this generation, and the normal sku is still outselling the mid-gen so impact is limited. By the end of the generation, the user base of mid-gen will be a small fraction of the total. But on the bright side, in theory mid-gen should help extend it beyond 6 years, so maybe more time for drama.

    A lot also depends on how next gen will deal with the split specs they created. If X is kept as a baseline (rolling gen), I think the underpowered CPU risks crippling games if they require full compatibility for all games. The later the next gen, themworse it will be. OTOH if they don't have mandatory FC, it's not the baseline spec anymore, it's just the normal cross-gen transition.
     
  20. steveOrino

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    Yeah, this delusion about flops mattering is really head scratching. I think $399 would have been better but MS was clearly adamant about native 4k30. I think its fine to have a boutique system but $500 really isn't going to do much to move the needle for the install base. Flops was never an issue with the Xbone to begin with (even though many think it was) and I think MS is putting so much emphasis on it glazes over the real issues as to why the base system massively underperformed. Perhaps MS does understand that system processing power wasn't the issue, but the messaging and push for the X1X in advertising leads me to think otherwise. I mean fanboys and forum warriors care about things like system power since they are talking points but the vast majority don't give a shit they just want games to play at a reasonable price.
     
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