Well, I always thought presuming it as a given that the GF FX would get massive improvements in performance from drivers was irrational.
However presuming that performance increases are in order after seeing actual results that seem (to me) to be a bit below expectations, seems more reasonable (though I don't think they can change the picture in regards to the 9700 Pro very much).
So I think we'll see some improvement.
But...that complex shader support seems more PR speak than anything. I think there is potential for advantages to be shown but I think it will take a lot of specific work and special cases for that to show. I can sympathize with nVidia's desire for Cg to facilitate this, but they let their arrogance dictate how they treated that initiative (too little focus on making it appealing to other vendors, and too much dependence on perceived self-importance to be able to succeed without doing so), and it seems likely they will be burned for it.
The lighting benchmarks seems to me to be related to a thought that came to mind when looking at the Quadro FX results...it seems to me nVidia's approach offers an advantage in "simple" (fixed function, simple texturing) lighting, and seems to fall down (in comparison to the 9700) when "complex" (shaders...) lighting and transformation comes into play. I tend to think the latter will be more important moving forwards in games (I don't think large quantities of simply lit triangles is a concern for gaming).
As struck me before, what we have here is the result of nVidia delivering hype and noise when ATI quietly delivered a good product, and having it turn out that the hype and noise and delay didn't actually deliver anything that was really better.