Hypothetical: Direct Download only Future for Console Gaming?

[eastmen]

It's actually worse than that, out of 39 million xboxes, only 20M are connected to live, and that's silver and gold combined together.

http://kotaku.com/5442283/xbox-360-39-million-consoles-sold-only-half-are-on-xbox-live

Another indication of while going DD only is suicide

From that we have learned that the 360 has only sold 500m games so far.

Far cry from someone claiming sony moves 230m + units of software a year.

Using 500m over 5 years is much more managable for DD only

Sony has started doing it on PSP.
Online games now come with a key, so pirates wont be able to get online since that costs devs bandwidth.
If you buy the game used, you have to buy a new key.

So I say again, if they wanted to kill used game sales off, they could.
They are going out of their way not to

LOL what do you think they are trying to do.

There is no way to stop people from turning to the used market. The only way is to lock a code to the console only .

What devs are doing are starting to show disadvantages for people buying used. Gears of war , EA , rock band these are all titles had content you get free with the new game but had to pay or flat out can't get if you buy it used.

The next step is either DD or a code that doesn't let you play the game unless you have the code inputed. But taht will require having a connection to the internet also.

 

[NeoTechni]

There is no way to stop people from turning to the used market. The only way is to lock a code to the console only .

Wait, you just said there was no way to stop it, then said how they could stop it.
The same way others in this topic, including me, have said they could do it.

The next step is either DD or a code that doesn't let you play the game unless you have the code inputed. But taht will require having a connection to the internet also.

Are you admitting requiring an internet connection would be suicide?

 

[eastmen]

Wait, you just said there was no way to stop it, then said how they could stop it.
The same way others in this topic, including me, have said they could do it

The problem with the code is that it can be cracked. It can be stolen , if the console breaks what then.

There are tons of problems with a code.

Mean while you still have gamestop pissed at you because now there is no used market for them. You have gamers pissed becuase they have to input a code .

In fact its the same thing as DD but with many more cons. The only benfit would be for the consumer in not having to download. However the companys would still have to give part of the revenue to the stores , distrubution , packaging , pyhsical media costs and so on.

DD would acomplish the same thing and bring in more money ! If gamers are already giving up being able to sell the game , let a friend borrow a game or renting a game , why not go the distance

Are you admitting requiring an internet connection would be suicide?

You claim it would be and I'm just following you. Personaly idon't think its sucidie. I think its stupid to go the distance of requiring an internet connection and not going all the way to DD. I explained above.

 

[NeoTechni]

The problem with the code is that it can be cracked. It can be stolen , if the console breaks what then.

Have PSN codes or XBLA codes been cracked?

Also, they arent some code, they are random letter/number combinations that are registered as a specific product when they are generated. The only way they can be "cracked" is a brute force attack, and you'd get a random product from the store, not a specific one.

Mean while you still have gamestop pissed at you because now there is no used market for them. You have gamers pissed becuase they have to input a code .

So you're admitting killing the used game market is suicide.

DD would acomplish the same thing and bring in more money

But less sales. There are reasons physical versions of games are still available even though you can download them

You claim it would be and I'm just following you.

I'm not complaining that you're agreeing with me.

 

[specwarGP2]

Whoops double post

 

[specwarGP2]

At gamestop a $60 game is worth no more than $25 at launch and quickly following will be under $20 a few months later.

So? DD games will be worth $0 since you can never resell them. You can't even give it away to a friend if you wanted. And who says you have to sell/trade back to gamestop? I've sold plenty of games for $40 or more on craigslist. Or you can use trading sites like goozex to maximize the value of your unwanted games. Physical games gives you freedom to do with your purchase as you wish. DD games take away all those freedoms that you are entitled to in exchange for a little bit of convenience to the end user. $60 a pop is way too much money for a little bit of convenience.

Constantly buying and trading games gets expensive real fast also. On steam if Idon't like a game anymore I normaly sell it to someone and make back money.

Like that's ever going to happen on a console...

 

[dobwal]

There is no way to stop people from turning to the used market. The only way is to lock a code to the console only .

What devs are doing are starting to show disadvantages for people buying used. Gears of war , EA , rock band these are all titles had content you get free with the new game but had to pay or flat out can't get if you buy it used.

The next step is either DD or a code that doesn't let you play the game unless you have the code inputed. But taht will require having a connection to the internet also.

Providing DD in the presence of the used optical market is the perfect way to combat used sales without killing optical based media, which is still the preferred method of delivery by consumers.

DD provides a level of pricing flexibility that new optical-based media lacks. You as publishers can't do 1 day 50% off sales for an individual title or a bundle of titles or track used game sales realtime and price your wares accordingly using the current optical media model. There is nothing to stop publishers from doing that on DD and attracting the value buyers who make use of the used game market. You can actually use pricing and sales events on the online store as an encouragement for consumers to use DD and grow the delivery until a point thats its a primary method of delivery for your userbase.

Optical based media dominates because its the perferred method of delivery chosen by consumers even those with access to DD. Full packaged 360 DD sales versus full packaged 360 optical based sales don't line up on broadband users versus non broadband users nor does it line up with Gold versus non Gold. How are you find success by trying to force consumers on a distribution model most don't primarily use.

Publisher can love DD all they want and you can present 1000s advantages of why DD is better for them but its the manufacturers that ultimately control whether a console goes totally DD and that is going to predicated on creating a console with a healthy userbase that can appeal to a broadbase of gamers.

Itunes is the #1 content provider of music and the Ipod is the most dominant music player in the states, yet even Apple where DD is the dominant content provider won't strip out functionality that allows content from optical media on its ipods and iphones. We talking optical based content that provides zero dollars in terms content sales for Apple. They allow this because that functionality does have redeeming value to consumers and thus facillitate hardware sales. The only place you see DD only content is app and game software on the Iphone and Itouch and thats because on cell phones, DD has always been the only form of game and app distribution and there was no such market for music based players prior to Apple creating one. If Apple won't strip out the functionality when its in a more leveraged position to do so, why would manufacturers on its console? Where optical based media provides actual revenue and is the primary profit generator for those companies and when DD represent but a small fraction of their revenue.

 

[eastmen]

Have PSN codes or XBLA codes been cracked?

Also, they arent some code, they are random letter/number combinations that are registered as a specific product when they are generated. The only way they can be "cracked" is a brute force attack, and you'd get a random product from the store, not a specific one.

I don't know about 360. I know many codes on the pc have been cracked. Also your requiring online now , what about all those people who aren't online ? You just lost that whole customer base. At that point when your loosing so much of your customer base why arent you taking advnatage of DD. Your already rulling those who don't connect to the systems to the internet out.

So you're admitting killing the used game market is suicide.

No ,I'm saying killing the used market and keeping the same retail chain is suicide. Your now cutting off a source of revenue for some of these storeswhile giving them nothing in return.

But less sales. There are reasons physical versions of games are still available even though you can download them

There were no physical verisons of the gta 4 dlc content. You had to buy the cards from game stop. Its a proven way to do things. If your already requiring everyone to be connected online there should be no reason why you can't switch to DD

So? DD games will be worth $0 since you can never resell them. You can't even give it away to a friend if you wanted. And who says you have to sell/trade back to gamestop? I've sold plenty of games for $40 or more on craigslist. Or you can use trading sites like goozex to maximize the value of your unwanted games. Physical games gives you freedom to do with your purchase as you wish. DD games take away all those freedoms that you are entitled to in exchange for a little bit of convenience to the end user. $60 a pop is way too much money for a little bit of convenience.

You can sell your DD games on steam. I have no reason to believe you wont be able to on consoles. You can sell them on steam also. Using a code is going to lock people in and devaule the game. 1) There can be no way to deactivate the code 2) deactivatin the code could cost money which will lower the amount of money yo uget back.

Providing DD in the presence of the used optical market is the perfect way to combat used sales without killing optical based media, which is still the preferred method of delivery by consumers.

Its the perfect way to kill DD

Pricing will have to be the same as retail , sales would be impossible to do because of retail , you loose all the benfits of DD

DD provides a level of pricing flexibility that new optical-based media lacks. You as publishers can't do 1 day 50% off sales for an individual title or a bundle of titles or track used game sales realtime and price your wares accordingly using the current optical media model. There is nothing to stop publishers from doing that on DD and attracting the value buyers who make use of the used game market. You can actually use pricing and sales events on the online store as an encouragement for consumers to use DD and grow the delivery until a point thats its a primary method of delivery for your userbase.

Retail and used markets will stop it. Retailers will not stand by ad let you price the DD section at 50% off or 25% off wed sales becuase retail doesn't have the ability to do that and retail discs will be more expensie and have more costs involved.

Optical based media dominates because its the perferred method of delivery chosen by consumers even those with access to DD. Full packaged 360 DD sales versus full packaged 360 optical based sales don't line up on broadband users versus non broadband users nor does it line up with Gold versus non Gold. How are you find success by trying to force consumers on a distribution model most don't primarily use.

Optical based media dominate because for almost 30 years it was the only viable way to do things and thus users have almost 30 years of habit built into them looking further back its even longer for the usage of other media like cassetes , 8 tracks , and records.

You find sucess by offering a more convient and usefull model. DD allows them to never have to leave the house , to deal with retailers pushing reserves , subsribtions and disc warrentys on them.

Without DD there will be only one viable way to stop piracy which will require an internet connection anyway. At that point why not just go the distance.

Publisher can love DD all they want and you can present 1000s advantages of why DD is better for them but its the manufacturers that ultimately control whether a console goes totally DD and that is going to predicated on creating a console with a healthy userbase that can appeal to a broadbase of gamers.

And DD consoles will grow with time just like any other console. The hardcore early adopters buying systems at $300 and up will have broad band and will be able to use a DD system. Over the next decade internet acess will only increase in penetration and speeds.

Itunes is the #1 content provider of music and the Ipod is the most dominant music player in the states, yet even Apple where DD is the dominant content provider won't strip out functionality that allows content from optical media on its ipods and iphones. We talking optical based content that provides zero dollars in terms content sales for Apple. They allow this because that functionality does have redeeming value to consumers and thus facillitate hardware sales. The only place you see DD only content is app and game software on the Iphone and Itouch and thats because on cell phones, DD has always been the only form of game and app distribution and there was no such market for music based players prior to Apple creating one. If Apple won't strip out the functionality when its in a more leveraged position to do so, why would manufacturers on its console? Where optical based media provides actual revenue and is the primary profit generator for those companies and when DD represent but a small fraction of their revenue.

There is ahuge diffrence. Music is an investment and many have diffrent means of listening to music. cd/dvd/bluray players in the home , cd players / dvd/ bluray players in the car. That is a format that has not yet died because of having almost 30 years of being in the market. Without a way for consumers to transfer thier investment to ipods would have been suicide.

Consoles on the other hand restart every x amount of years. When you buy a new DDsystem therei s no past investment there. Sony stoped BC in thier consoles , the new ps3s don't let ps1 and ps2 titles work in the system anymore. That means there would be no past content that users would wnat to acess.

An xbox next or ps4 can offer the older games through DD for BC and can allow a user to create a DD libary of games of past and future titles . In which not only do the gamers get benfits but the platform holders and developers get profit.'

By spliting the user base between DD and optical your doubling your costs and are unable to reap the benfit of DD

 

[NeoTechni]

By splitting your userbase between physical and DD, you're allowing your games to be distributed to markets DD cant go, and to people who prefer physical, thus maximizing sales.

Gees, poland cant even buy things from XBOX Live yet. Thats an entire country

, what about all those people who aren't online ?
Your already rulling those who don't connect to the systems to the internet out.

So you're admitting going DD only is suicide

 

[aaronspink]

You find sucess by offering a more convient and usefull model. DD allows them to never have to leave the house , to deal with retailers pushing reserves , subsribtions and disc warrentys on them.

The other thing that a DCD system like steam allows is portability. I can buy 1 copy of the game and use it on any system that I log in to. Some of the more advanced features that Valve are pushing even allow things such as playing on one system. Stopping. Going someplace else and using a different system and picking up right where you left off. DCD is all about convenience.

 

[aaronspink]

By splitting your userbase between physical and DD, you're allowing your games to be distributed to markets DD cant go, and to people who prefer physical, thus maximizing sales.

If people are going to buy the game, they are going to buy the game, distribution system really doesn't matter. Some may prefer to deal with physical media, but if DCD is all there is, they will use it. I'm unaware of any market where DCD cannot go that represents a significant enough market that a LUXURY good really needs to care about it.

Gees, poland cant even buy things from XBOX Live yet. Thats an entire country

That likely has more to due with translation than anything.

 

[darkblu]

I find it odd anyone thinks any system will go DD only after how many retailers boycotted the Go. A DD only system without a physical medium based version would only be treated worse.

I find it odd some people have not heard of the idevices/android ecosystems. Welcome to Earth, 2010.

 

[ShadowRunner]

If people are going to buy the game, they are going to buy the game, distribution system really doesn't matter. Some may prefer to deal with physical media, but if DCD is all there is, they will use it. I'm unaware of any market where DCD cannot go that represents a significant enough market that a LUXURY good really needs to care about it.

Those consumers may buy a different plantorm in the first place if it doesnt impose these restrictions on them.

If PS4 was DD-only next gen and 360 offered both forms of distribution i know which one i would buy (wel id by both but for the sake of arguement ), if there other feature sets were similar.

 

[swaaye]

I have ~7Mbps cable modem and Steam + 10GB games are ~4 hrs of waiting and they don't bother me..... I can start it before I go to work, run it overnight, or I can just play another game in the meantime. Big deal. That's the usual cable modem speed around here unless you go for a higher plan. $50/mo for me. Things will just get faster.

The biggest problem IMO is the download quotas of some ISPs. We're free of that here.

What I like about DD is that you can get older games for silly cheap occasionally. And Steam does those crazy publisher packs where you can get a whole lineup of older games for super cheap. These are deals that beat brick and mortar by a long shot (other than Half Price Books and some Amazon sellers lol). I tend to not be on top of the latest greatest releases so it's cheap gaming and it's easy to get the games. If you're an out-of-control impulse buyer, it's not a safe thing to have though lol.

 

[upnorthsox]

I have ~7Mbps cable modem and Steam + 10GB games are ~4 hrs of waiting and they don't bother me..... I can start it before I go to work, run it overnight, or I can just play another game in the meantime. Big deal. That's the usual cable modem speed around here unless you go for a higher plan. $50/mo for me. Things will just get faster.

The biggest problem IMO is the download quotas of some ISPs. We're free of that here.

What I like about DD is that you can get older games for silly cheap occasionally. And Steam does those crazy publisher packs where you can get a whole lineup of older games for super cheap. These are deals that beat brick and mortar by a long shot (other than Half Price Books and some Amazon sellers lol). I tend to not be on top of the latest greatest releases so it's cheap gaming and it's easy to get the games. If you're an out-of-control impulse buyer, it's not a safe thing to have though lol.

But that's Steam and a completely different business model and may change as they are no longer scrounging to get people to try it, you almost never see it on the consoles and if anything DD on the consoles has resisted any price reductions at all.

 

[aaronspink]

But that's Steam and a completely different business model and may change as they are no longer scrounging to get people to try it, you almost never see it on the consoles and if anything DD on the consoles has resisted any price reductions at all.

Valve hasn't been scrounging to get people to try it for years. The bundles, etc, were originally experiments my Valve in elasticity of pricing and demand. What they found was that there wasn't a linear relationship between price and demand and that at various times in the life cycle they greatly increased total money/profit by doing things like 50%+ discounts and bundling.

Valve shared a lot of this data with other publishers and they've done the same thing. Conceptually its not much different than the 2 movies on DVD for <$9 that WB has been doing for quite a while and found immensely profitable. It took a while for Valve to convince the publishers it would work but eventually they tried it here and there and liked the results which led to the Great Days of Steam Holidays Sale where way too many people spent way more money than they planned to spend.

Most titles normally have an effective life of under a month as far as the money they make, DCD allows pricing flexibility to significantly extend the value lifecycle for games.

 

[NeoTechni]

I find it odd some people have not heard of the idevices/android ecosystems. Welcome to Earth, 2010.

I find it odd people use something with extremely small filesizes as examples that multi gigabyte games will work

Its like saying since Gameboy Advance could download games off pieces of paper using the ereader that it would work for PS4. It's a bad example.

If people are going to buy the game, they are going to buy the game, distribution system really doesn't matter.

Unless the system prevents them from doing so. Not everyone has broadband or unlimited bandwidth/patience.


Also, the law against undercutting:

The Robinson-Patman Act of 1936 (or Anti-Price Discrimination Act, Pub. L. No. 74-692, 49 Stat. 1526 (codified at 15 U.S.C. § 13)) is a United States federal law that prohibits what were considered, at the time of passage, to be anticompetitive practices by producers, specifically price discrimination. It grew out of practices in which chain stores were allowed to purchase goods at lower prices than other retailers

In practice, the "harm to competition" requirement often is the make-or-break point.

In business and economics, predatory pricing is the practice of selling a product or service at a very low price, intending to drive competitors out of the market, or create barriers to entry for potential new competitors. If competitors or potential competitors cannot sustain equal or lower prices without losing money, they go out of business or choose not to enter the business. The predatory merchant then has fewer competitors or is even a de facto monopoly, and hypothetically could then raise prices above what the market would otherwise bear

In many countries predatory pricing is considered anti-competitive and is illegal under antitrust laws. .

http://books.google.ca/books?id=ZQG...=laws undercutting retailers monopoly&f=false unquotable, as it's an image, not text

 

[eastmen]

I think wow is a good example Aaron .

The game full is over 10 gigs big. However you download a few hudnred megs , its enough to install the first area of the game. Then as your connected to the server your downloading more and more of the game.

They can do this on a DD console.

Buy halo 5 ? No problem start downloading , first gig pulled down is the first level. You can start playing the game as more of the game is downloaded

 

[Danalys]

WoW works a bit different to something like halo in that it can keep you in a small area for a long time and being on-line is required to play.

 

[dobwal]

No ,I'm saying killing the used market and keeping the same retail chain is suicide. Your now cutting off a source of revenue for some of these storeswhile giving them nothing in return.

The only major retailer that has a huge presence in used sales is Gamestop. They have the less leverage of any retailer because games dominate their business. They can threaten to boycott a console but that comes at the expense of killing 1/4th to 1/3rd of the total business. They will have to deal with it. Its not them you got to worry about its the Walmarts and BBs that you have to worry about.

No retailer that operates in the video game business likes the ideal of DD especially under the scenario where DD's point of sales is totally controlled by the manufacturer. Buts its one thing to incrementally shrink one's revenue while gradually increasing another (card sales) and another to totally disrupt the current model with just projections that another will make up for it.

There were no physical verisons of the gta 4 dlc content. You had to buy the cards from game stop. Its a proven way to do things. If your already requiring everyone to be connected online there should be no reason why you can't switch to DD

Its not a proven way to do things in terms of servicing the whole console market. Why hasn't any pub ditched the current model for a DD only one on a full fledged PC title. No worries about upfront licensing, distribution costs and returns of non selling shipments. But there are huge worries that DD doesn't cover the market as a whole.

GTA4 DLC can now be physically bought, its called Episodes of Liberty City and came 6 months after the DLC on the 360 and will be launched along side the PS3 and PC DLC. The fact a physical 360 version does now exists and physical versions will be launched side by side with the PS3 and PC shows that DLC all by itself can't optimally take advantage of the overall market demand.

You can sell your DD games on steam. I have no reason to believe you wont be able to on consoles. You can sell them on steam also. Using a code is going to lock people in and devaule the game. 1) There can be no way to deactivate the code 2) deactivatin the code could cost money which will lower the amount of money yo uget back.

You mention Steam but Steam is a DD service that found success in the presence of retail not in its absence. Consoles do what Steam does right now. The majority of full fledged package PC titles are not distributed exclusively be Steam.

Show me where DD exclusively serves an audio/visual marketplace as big as console gaming and I will accept your opinion as my own.

Its the perfect way to kill DD.

What world do you live in? Because in my world DD has grown tremendously in the presence of optical media without taking full advantage of its inherent advantages.

Pricing will have to be the same as retail , sales would be impossible to do because of retail , you loose all the benfits of DD.

Retail and used markets will stop it. Retailers will not stand by ad let you price the DD section at 50% off or 25% off wed sales becuase retail doesn't have the ability to do that and retail discs will be more expensie and have more costs involved.

They would have a problem with any pricing discrepancies early in the life of a title but once you get to point where retails sales drastically falls off then pricing would not be a problem. Used sales aren't a front end problem they are a back end problem. Used supply is rather small at the beginning but increases over time while pricing is totally in the hand of Gamestop and others meaning a level of flexibility that publishers lack.

DD allows older titles to stay viable while in retail these titles have no shelf presence. Is this not similar to what we see on Steam in the presence of retail? I keep asking because I've haven't used Steam in ages and I don't keep up with it anymore, but I do read about sales events from time to time.

Optical based media dominate because for almost 30 years it was the only viable way to do things and thus users have almost 30 years of habit built into them looking further back its even longer for the usage of other media like cassetes , 8 tracks , and records.

Optical based media has been dominating for the last 20 years and its adoption came in the presence of its predecessor. Thats been true for all the major formats. They outcompete the current format leader by being a more compelling and attractive choice for consumers. You're talking about adoption not through competition but by simply eliminating the choice and at a time when the current format dominates 80%+ of the game sales.

You find sucess by offering a more convient and usefull model. DD allows them to never have to leave the house , to deal with retailers pushing reserves , subsribtions and disc warrentys on them.

Here an ideal you run with and you'll be the first (in your reality). Start a business that delivers new games by mail.

And DD consoles will grow with time just like any other console. The hardcore early adopters buying systems at $300 and up will have broad band and will be able to use a DD system. Over the next decade internet acess will only increase in penetration and speeds.

Hardcore early adopters adopt every console, its the mainstream consumers that facillitate an actual healthy userbase that can support a profitable console. And there is no evidence that a DD model will be readily accepted by a majority of general consumers when optical based media is still the perferred choice of content delivery.

There is ahuge diffrence. Music is an investment and many have diffrent means of listening to music. cd/dvd/bluray players in the home , cd players / dvd/ bluray players in the car. That is a format that has not yet died because of having almost 30 years of being in the market. Without a way for consumers to transfer thier investment to ipods would have been suicide.

Its not a huge difference, gaming is an investment thats tends to require more capital then music. And why do you keep mentioning 30 years because I don't remember watching TJ Hooker and listening to RunDMC on DVD and CD players. joking.

History doesn't support your assertion. Music is way more format friendly (supporting several at once) than video and before CD was way more fragmented. Why don't I remember CD/cassette walkman combos, CD players with turn tables on top of them or 8 track/cassette combo. Also, I don't remember everybody ripping their record collection to 8-tracks, cassettes nor CDs and this activity be lauded to the success of the newer format. Music never really required great use of transitional products. The only place where combo tech was big was automobiles and yet I still don't recall automobiles that came with standard with record players. Apple operates in a field thats been way more friendly to supporting multiple formats at once. Apple is probably one of the few that can limit compability and get away, yet it doesn't.

Consoles on the other hand restart every x amount of years. When you buy a new DDsystem therei s no past investment there. Sony stoped BC in thier consoles , the new ps3s don't let ps1 and ps2 titles work in the system anymore. That means there would be no past content that users would wnat to acess.

BC is a matter of convenience not practicality. When you a PS3, Sony doesn't come by and pick up your PS2. Gamers' investment in past generation doesn't die because they buy a new console.

An xbox next or ps4 can offer the older games through DD for BC and can allow a user to create a DD libary of games of past and future titles . In which not only do the gamers get benfits but the platform holders and developers get profit.'

How do you rebuild your existing optical disc library using DD on a optical disc less console totally for free. You can't. You talking total reinvestment in your current library to play on your new DD only console. This is not an activity most consumers will be encouraged to invest.

By spliting the user base between DD and optical your doubling your costs and are unable to reap the benfit of DD

No you're not because you chop off a publishers disc manufacturing and distribution costs, DD allows MS, Nintendo or Sony to take a bigger cut while giving the options of providing costs saving to pubs. The problem is the additional investment in offering a more robust service and placing it solely on the back of a new DD only console.