How to sell next-gen consoles, Marketing, Positioning, and Pricing [2020]

[wco81]

For the sake of the discussion this should be the position most people should take. It's pretty unrealistic to expect Xbox to outsell PS5. To do this, they would effectively have to double their sales of this generation ~80M. I'm not necessarily sure if that is their goal or what not.

The real question is whether they will have a better performing generation than this generation. Do we expect them to do better than the 40~50M units by the end of this generation.

Good to remember how optimistic MS was when they introduced the X1. I distinctly recall talk of hundreds of millions of units, because it would go beyond the console, with the TV integration -- TV, TV, TV!. They thought it was the mythical key to winning the living room.

It turned out that especially for younger generations, they mainly cared to watch video and game on their phones, not sit in front of the big screen.

Maybe MS has more modest expectations, though looks like they went more aggressively towards being the performance leader this time around.

But they could start with winning the US and UK and a few other select markets.

No point in competing in this business if you're not aiming to win the market share battle.

 

[Jay]

Good to remember how optimistic MS was when they introduced the X1. I distinctly recall talk of hundreds of millions of units, because it would go beyond the console, with the TV integration -- TV, TV, TV!. They thought it was the mythical key to winning the living room.

When it launched it wasn't very good at media either compared to X360 even.

though looks like they went more aggressively towards being the performance leader this time around.

For the XSX maybe
XSS which is all but confirmed, I would say it is a good push at the price conscious

 

[Deleted member 13524]

Not near as much as you think. I think price is the main mover of boxes and you can't play halo on a ps4.

The Gamecube was the cheapest. And so was the Wii U when the xbone/ps4 launched. Halo is now on PC..

Good to remember how optimistic MS was when they introduced the X1. I distinctly recall talk of hundreds of millions of units, because it would go beyond the console, with the TV integration -- TV, TV, TV!. They thought it was the mythical key to winning the living room.

Hundreds of millions? How about a billion?

https://www.vg247.com/2013/05/24/xb...on-lifetime-sales-100-million-xbox-360-units/

 

[Unknown Soldier]

https://www.roadtovr.com/xbox-one-x-vr-missing-strategy-playstation-vr-psvr-revenue/

PSVR Revenue Exceeds $2 Billion

 

[Strange]

For consumers a Series S is in the same ballpark as a Xbox One X with a better CPU and a better SSD solution and some new GPU features.
(note 6TF RDNA1 will be in the same ballpark as a 4TF RDNA2)

Size will be comparable, and even the BOM is probably comparable.
As a result, the pricing will be comparable to a discounted Xbox One X...

We already know what to expect (no matter if you like it or not) and that's not exactly next gen.

That's my take.

 

[Silent_Buddha]

For consumers a Series S is in the same ballpark as a Xbox One X with a better CPU and a better SSD solution and some new GPU features.
(note 6TF RDNA1 will be in the same ballpark as a 4TF RDNA2)

Size will be comparable, and even the BOM is probably comparable.
As a result, the pricing will be comparable to a discounted Xbox One X...

We already know what to expect (no matter if you like it or not) and that's not exactly next gen.

That's my take.

Now imagine XBO-X, but with MUCH faster CPU, MUCH faster storage, more efficient GPU...and...only having to render at 1080p (I think most titles for it will target 1080p versus 1440p).

It should offer massively better gaming presentation than the XSX in everything but resolution...not to mention the XBO-S which is what it's actually replacing.

Regards,
SB

 

[Strange]

Now imagine XBO-X, but with MUCH faster CPU, MUCH faster storage, more efficient GPU...and...only having to render at 1080p (I think most titles for it will target 1080p versus 1440p).

It should offer massively better gaming presentation than the XSX in everything but resolution...not to mention the XBO-S which is what it's actually replacing.

Regards,
SB

If that's all that's needed to deliver a "massively better gaming presentation" than the Xbox One X then Microsoft is doing a abysmally bad job doing that with a 12TF machine, let alone a 4TF machine.

At most I expect the XBSS to run some games at 60fps+ under 1080p over the XBOX with a few extra GPU features, and better loading times.
Lets keep expectations grounded.

 

[Silent_Buddha]

If that's all that's needed to deliver a "massively better gaming presentation" than the Xbox One X then Microsoft is doing a abysmally bad job doing that with a 12TF machine, let alone a 4TF machine.

How so? The XBO-X targeted 4k although not all titles could achieve that. XBSX is also targeting 4K but additionally 60/120 FPS.

XBSS will target the same level of graphics as XBSX along with 60/120 FPS, but instead of the 4k target that XBO-X had and XBSX will have, it will be targeting 1080p.

XBSS will NOT be targeting XBO-X level of graphics presentation since XBO-X wouldn't be capable of it.

Not everyone has a 4k TV and thus has need of a 4k console.

Regards,
SB

 

[Strange]

XBSS will NOT be targeting XBO-X level of graphics presentation since XBO-X wouldn't be capable of it.

That makes no sense whatsoever. XBO-X can target 1080p 60fps if developers want and other feature differences won't make a huge difference.
You're effectively hinging on the idea that XBOX is forced to target 4k and XBSS can do much better on 1080p because it doesn't have the same constraints.

I don't see any reason for devs to not target 1080p on XBOX if they wish that doesn't apply to XBSS. In fact, in many cases, they probably should.

 

[Deleted member 13524]

XBSS will target the same level of graphics as XBSX along with 60/120 FPS, but instead of the 4k target that XBO-X had and XBSX will have, it will be targeting 1080p.

And in the cases where the SeriesX targets 1440-1800p30 + reconstruction/upscale, will the SeriesS fall into 720-900p30 + reconstruction / upscale? Is 720p30 even any good for decent upscaling on a 43"+ TV?

Or are the developers now forbidden to render at anything below 2160p on the SeriesX just so that the SeriesS' version doesn't hurt too much?
Upscaling became big on 4K TVs because those have an absurd pixel density that is mostly an overkill for most TV sizes. That's not the case for 1080p TVs.

I'm seeing this narrative that it's easy to plan for a 1080p console that downgrades from a 2160p version, but it seems no one is stopping to think that maybe not all developers want to render at the full (and rather useless) 2160p resolution. I very much doubt that 4K will be the SeriesX's target on most games that push image quality in general.

I still don't see how this does not become a clusterfuck in the long term, but maybe I'm wrong.

 

[AlNom]

Are there developers who won't target a dynamic 4K on the highest end

 

[Deleted member 13524]

Are there developers who won't target a dynamic 4K on the highest end

"Dynamic 4K" that goes down to 1440p when needed is still a game that goes down to 720p in a console that targets a quarter of the resolution.
The point of having a home console introduced in 2020/2021 that goes down to 720p (and looking horrible in the process) still stands.

 

[AlNom]

"Dynamic 4K" that goes down to 1440p when needed is still a game that goes down to 720p in a console that targets a quarter of the resolution.
The point of having a home console in 2020 (or maybe 2021) that goes down to 720p still stands.

Is it any less acceptable to a low budget gamer on 1080p compared to a person gaming on a 4K screen?

 

[Deleted member 13524]

Is it any less acceptable to a low budget gamer on 1080p compared to a person gaming on a 4K screen?

4K screens have 4x the pixel density of 1080p ones for the same size, so the perceived quality downgrade between an upscaled 1440p->2160p and an upscaled 720p->1080p scene on a 43" TV will be completely different on a rasterized scene, yes.

 

[AlNom]

4K screens have 4x the pixel density of 1080p ones for the same size, so the perceived quality downgrade between an upscaled 1440p->2160p and an upscaled 720p->1080p scene on a 43" TV will be completely different on a rasterized scene, yes.

Can you say that it actually matters? There are tens of millions of gamers that aren't gaming on 4K consoles (4Pro/OneX), but *may* have 4K TVs with upscaling.

Why the concern?

 

[Deleted member 13524]

Can you say that it actually matters?

Yes. I have tried how far Radeon Image Sharpening can go, on my HTPC connected to a TV. Recent games rendered at 720p do not look good on recent games. In fact, it does very little below 1440p from my experience.

You can also take the hint from Digital Foundry, who have found that many multiplatform games within the last years run at 720p on the XBone as studios eventually gave up on using the 32MB ESRAM.

DICE's Battlefield 5 is a good example, pushing technology with cutting edge features, but paying for it by reducing resolution dynamically and using reconstruction techniques in an attempt to restore image quality. It's not a totally ideal situation for image clarity but it passes muster on PlayStation 4, but looks significantly blurrier on Xbox One. Reconstruction to hit 720p in the most intense scenes? It works, frame-rate is kept high, but it's not pretty.

Temporal AA has become something of a standard at the tail-end of this generation and it can look great, but it does rely on a decent base resolution.

Why the concern?

I really just wrote that, but my concern is that the SeriesS will be pushing back the potential visuals that could be attainable on the SeriesX if rendering at 1440-1800p, because rendering at a quarter of that on the SeriesS would look like crap.
Which in turn lowers the minimum common denominator for the whole generation of consoles.

 

[Jay]

in the cases where the SeriesX targets 1440-1800p30 + reconstruction/upscale, will the SeriesS fall into 720-900p30 + reconstruction / upscale? Is 720p30 even any good for decent upscaling on a 43"+ TV?

What's the problem? Sounds reasonable to me.
And more than good enough for my nephew who I'll probably buy one for.

 

[AzBat]

Which in turn lowers the minimum common denominator for the whole generation of consoles.

I take it you're not a potential Xbox owner & so you're concerned how this will affect third-party titles on PS5? Did the XB1 affect the quality of third-party games on PS4?

Tommy McClain

 

[AlNom]

I really just wrote that, but my concern is that the SeriesS will be pushing back the potential visuals that could be attainable on the SeriesX if rendering at 1440-1800p, because rendering at a quarter of that on the SeriesS would look like crap.
Which in turn lowers the minimum common denominator for the whole generation of consoles.

I'm not clear on such given the scalability of graphics (# of samples, buffer resolution, or simply Disable). The biggest issue has been the CPU-side, which is fundamental to the overall game design (edit: and there is no indication that the CPU is severely impacted).

The folks that would have normally waited years to buy into the system due to price are being catered to with a low cost entry, and there's a good chance they are not the most hardcore discerning folks when it comes to graphics, so if sacrifices need to be made, then it may not be as big of an issue as folks on forums may be.

That said, there is certainly a messaging problem that MS has with cross-gen support, and why a person should move onto next gen.

What might be of interest is that the Series S becomes a cheaper secondary console for exclusives rather than the main console (e.g. PS5) not unlike how Nintendo is seemingly viewed in some circles.

 

[iroboto]

I really just wrote that, but my concern is that the SeriesS will be pushing back the potential visuals that could be attainable on the SeriesX if rendering at 1440-1800p,

Currently its very unknown what developers will be targeting in terms of resolution for the future here. PS5 showcased a metric ton of titles going at native 4K here. There's still reconstruction and sliding resolution to be had. There's a lot of room to work with before needing to drop that far down in resolution unless you're attempting HFR, which shouldn't apply to XSS.

And as a studio, they should be prioritizing XSX and PS5 as their main platforms, XSS has more than enough effective power to keep up at a resolution 1/4 as deep.