Global warming

[Mintmaster]

And why haven't you been paying attention to what a small change in global temperature brings? The overwhelming difference that people will feel is not the average temperature, but the secondary effects of said temperature. Things like growing seasons, sea level rise, storm and drought frequency, decrease in water supplies, and many more are the primary things that will affect people, not feeling a bit warmer when stepping outside.

I know, but if you paid attention you'd see that the last ~15 posts have been talking about perception. Secondary effects may well be the biggest problem, but the temperature difference is what they understand and feel. It's hard for North Americans to get upset with a 3 deg C rise in temperatures, particularly when those secondary effects are so hard to discern.

As for my personal beliefs, I think the suffering and death that AGW will be responsible for absolutely pale next to the larger issues plaguing developing countries, particularly when looking at the marginal impact of acting on AGW now vs a 40 year trajectory. That's why I don't care to spend on it until renewable energy becomes cheap or foreign aid gets closer to 1% of GDP.

 

[AlphaWolf]

The secondary effects aren't all that hard to discern. Exactly how many tornadoes do you need or record rainfalls/floods?

 

[KimB]

I know, but if you paid attention you'd see that the last ~15 posts have been talking about perception. Secondary effects may well be the biggest problem, but the temperature difference is what they understand and feel.

No, the temperature difference is what is (relatively) easy to measure, but it is absolutely, positively not what people will feel.

As for my personal beliefs, I think the suffering and death that AGW will be responsible for absolutely pale next to the larger issues plaguing developing countries, particularly when looking at the marginal impact of acting on AGW now vs a 40 year trajectory. That's why I don't care to spend on it until renewable energy becomes cheap or foreign aid gets closer to 1% of GDP.

Do you not understand that global warming is going to make these issues worse in developing nations?

Oh, and the only reason why renewable energy isn't cheaper than coal right now is because of massive government subsidies for coal.

 

[Squilliam]

I think one only has to look at the worsening water situation. How many rivers, lakes, fossil and current reservoirs are being depleted at a significant rate. I think the fear ought to be about peak fresh water, especially for agriculture and what resulting rain patterns might do. In some parts of the world the water table is dropping by a couple of meters a year!

 

[KimB]

I think one only has to look at the worsening water situation. How many rivers, lakes, fossil and current reservoirs are being depleted at a significant rate. I think the fear ought to be about peak fresh water, especially for agriculture and what resulting rain patterns might do. In some parts of the world the water table is dropping by a couple of meters a year!

Another problem that AGW makes worse. Still, this one is mostly up to regional infrastructure management. Water management would be a great way to spend some stimulus money right now....*sigh*...

 

[ninelven]

I haven't visited this area of the forums in 2 years; I must say reading through this thread and seeing how people's views have changed (or not) on this topic is most amusing.

 

[Mariner]

As an aside, as I was driving to pick up my girlfriend from the gym last night, I was driving behind a brand new Ferrari 458 - registration: "IPCC".

I couldn't work out it he was trying to be a funny bugger or not!

One thing is for sure, he was driving like a complete dickhead.

 

[KimB]

One thing is for sure, he was driving like a complete dickhead.

I believe that they take away your Ferrari if you ever stop driving like a dickhead.

 

[Squilliam]

So I was out yesterday in winter with shorts and a t-shirt, does this mean we're all doomed?

 

[gamervivek]

http://www.theregister.co.uk/2011/06/14/ice_age/

 

[KimB]

http://www.theregister.co.uk/2011/06/14/ice_age/

Complete bullshit. At most, a reduction in solar activity will produce a small delay in global warming. It certainly won't cause an ice age or anything like an ice age.

 

[zed]

shock horror

Global warming 'confirmed' by independent study

http://www.bbc.co.uk/news/science-environment-15373071

Funding came from a number of sources, including charitable foundations maintained by the Koch brothers, the billionaire US industrialists, who have also donated large sums to organisations lobbying against acceptance of man-made global warming.

ouch!

 

[KimB]

shock horror

Global warming 'confirmed' by independent study

http://www.bbc.co.uk/news/science-environment-15373071

ouch!

Yup!

I personally loved Anthony Watt's response. Here is him before the report:
http://wattsupwiththat.com/2011/03/06/briggs-on-berkeleys-best-plus-my-thoughts-from-my-visit-there/

And, I’m prepared to accept whatever result they produce, even if it proves my premise wrong.

And here is him afterwards:
http://wattsupwiththat.com/2011/10/...mperature-project-puts-pr-before-peer-review/

Apparently, PR trumps the scientific process now, no need to do that pesky peer review, no need to address the errors with those you ask for comments prior to publication, just get it to press.

So, Watts starts off with a complaint that applies to all the work he has ever done.

 

[pjbliverpool]

I'm laughing at the idiots who seriously thought global warming wasn't real. Fools.

 

[epicstruggle]

I'm laughing at the idiots who seriously thought global warming wasn't real. Fools.

To be clear, I don't think very many people were arguing that global warming/change wasn't real. Only that humans have changed the natural course that we were on.

 

[KimB]

To be clear, I don't think very many people were arguing that global warming/change wasn't real. Only that humans have changed the natural course that we were on.

Oh, they most certainly were, and have been for quite some time. By large the evidence has gotten so strong that most of these people have been forced to shift to saying that it isn't caused by humans, but even then they frequently run around claiming the temperature records are false (see Watts above, for instance).

 

[zed]

Oh, they most certainly were,

yep, very strong opinion even 5 years ago, this was common -> 'no warming has occurred'(*)
now its yes as you say these same ppl say 'OK theres warming but its not caused by humans'

(*)xxx was the most famous here saying that there was NO warming

 

[epicstruggle]

Im not talking about the uninformed masses. I will not speak for the conservative ones and I'm pretty sure you won't defend those who are liberal..

Those who are informed, know that the climate has shifted. We have had Ice Ages, warming periods, cooling periods.... No one denies these events. So we go through changes and nature has adapted.

Now, the debate is whether humans have caused any of the climate change we see today. I don't believe so, and the use of a tipping point of no return is used only as a scare tactic. I believe that you can get the change you want by other means, without to resorting to scare tactics or name calling.

 

[KimB]

Im not talking about the uninformed masses. I will not speak for the conservative ones and I'm pretty sure you won't defend those who are liberal..

Those who are informed, know that the climate has shifted. We have had Ice Ages, warming periods, cooling periods.... No one denies these events. So we go through changes and nature has adapted.

Yes, even many of them at least have doubted the warming has been happening at all. How else do you explain how much controversy there has been over the "hockey stick" graph, for example? Or the hype surrounding the BEST temperature reanalysis? Or climate deniers now running away from BEST as fast as they can?

Now, the debate is whether humans have caused any of the climate change we see today. I don't believe so, and the use of a tipping point of no return is used only as a scare tactic. I believe that you can get the change you want by other means, without to resorting to scare tactics or name calling.

Then what, pray tell, is causing it? Or, more to the point, why do you think CO2 isn't?

 

[AlphaWolf]

the denial movement will continue to move the goal posts until arctic beach becomes a hot property