Final confirmed Jan NPD's
- Thread starter Rangers
- Start date
I believe you forgot the PS2.
What is the ratio between the 360 core/premium models world wide? 1 : 10 maybe? In my neighbourhood you hardly find the core version at all. Do you think that will change dramatically in the future?
Ayway you´ll find 40 GB disks for less than $50 in retail already today, what do you think Sony and MS pay for a stripped down 20 GB drive? The 20 GB disk will eventually be replaced by some flash memory within a few years from now, bringing the price down to a few dollars.
Do you have any details about Sonys deal with Rambus? I think they got a pretty good deal being the first major manufacturer to exploit XDR and FlexIO in a component such as the Cell.
Your other PS3 hardware points can probably be matched if you scrutinise the 360 design with the same eye, such as the EDRAM requiring a more esotheric and expensive process.
I disagree with your "$50 premium" forever theory, but besides that, do you think Sony, Nintendo and Microsoft agree with your view that "most 'well known' games will be multiplat" ?
I am sure their marketing forces will be working very much against that.
If you're going to say something, say it. Yes my numbers are based on a small blip in the grand scheme of things. However it does not mean the data does not exist and It appeared to me in dreamland. People can pretend PS3 has been on the shelf for years but fact is it was just released in November. Two months later and the system is demand limited in Japan and the US after selling less than 2 million units. Latest sales data placing this demand at about 250k in the US and this with a 5 week sample mind you. Japan is settling at between 20k and 25k per week (100k).
Games will come. Price drops will come. I figure both of these elements are worth an extra 50k/mo in Japan (already relatively cheap) and an extra 100k/mo in the US region this year. EU is a questionmark but I figure US sales are a safe barometer.
Feel my numbers are off? Fine, explain your own predictions. I never said PS3 will sell this exact amount. I just presented a range that seemed reasonable given the data that we do have.
ANY post of mine seems to generate a personal attack from this guy despite my generously respectful attitude towards him.
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Just to add to the discussion, here are January NPD numbers for Cananda:
Jan sales up 55% year-over-year
Lost Planet 15,400
WarioWare, Zelda, Gears of War, NSMB all 12k-13k
Hardware
Wii 34,000
PS2 27,000
360 14,400
PS3 6,800
Software Top 10
1. Lost Planet: Extreme Condition (Xbox 360)
2. WarioWare: Smooth Moves (Wii)
3. The Legend of Zelda: Twilight Princess (Wii)
4. Gears of War (Xbox 360)
5. New Super Mario Bros (DS)
6. The Legend of Zelda: Twilight Princess (GCN)
7. Guitar Hero 2 bundle (PS2)
8. NHL 07 (PS2)
9. Rainbow Six Vegas (Xbox 360)
10. NHL 07 (Xbox 360)
Jan sales up 55% year-over-year
Lost Planet 15,400
WarioWare, Zelda, Gears of War, NSMB all 12k-13k
Hardware
Wii 34,000
PS2 27,000
360 14,400
PS3 6,800
Software Top 10
1. Lost Planet: Extreme Condition (Xbox 360)
2. WarioWare: Smooth Moves (Wii)
3. The Legend of Zelda: Twilight Princess (Wii)
4. Gears of War (Xbox 360)
5. New Super Mario Bros (DS)
6. The Legend of Zelda: Twilight Princess (GCN)
7. Guitar Hero 2 bundle (PS2)
8. NHL 07 (PS2)
9. Rainbow Six Vegas (Xbox 360)
10. NHL 07 (Xbox 360)
I think you've missed my point : any predictions based on these data are jumping to conclusions and to me, and many others who understand statistics / history / followed these trends, its simply a waste of time. In short, these data points are absolutely useless for anything other than simply talking about it casually and arguing about like you do in bars.
If you really want me and others who think like me or have had the same engineering or scientific education to make a prediction, we could, but it would really amount to nothing.
ANY post of mine seems to generate a personal attack from this guy despite my generously respectful attitude towards him.
What do you expect me to do ?!? BAN him ?!!?
/me checks Todd33's current status, and then does a double-take to see if rounin has been added to staff.
You speak as if ''the gap" is a context-free absolute. That's nonsense. You're also talking as if I'm saying that the PSP suddenly looks like it will start gaining on the DS. That is also nonsense. I've just been taking issue with the 'it's all lies!' comment. I'm both a humanist and a linguist, see?
My position on this very issue (the press release issued by Sony) is simple : the "gap is closing" comment, considering no specific context was mentioned in the PR (no "monthly gap", no "marketshare"), is factually incorrect, based on the admitted definition of "gap" in the context of sales. Since I doubt the people writing the PR are incompetent enough to actually believe that stuff, my conclusion is that they are lying. I have not said the entire PR is a lie, I've kept myself to that specific point. Surely as an humanist and a linguist you can understand that ? My second point of anger has been with people who go all the way to "demonstrate" how the PR is correct, actual facts be damned.
As said earlier :
1) void of any additional context that would change the definition of "gap", this specific segment of the PR is a blatant falsehood. When your competitor sells more than you do, the gap between his product and yours is widening, not closing. End of the story.
2) There are only two possible explanations when someone repeats a falsehood : either he's informed of the false nature of his assertions, or he isn't. If he is, then he is lying. If he isn't, then there are a couple possibilities, none too flattering (ranging from misinformation to stupidity). I think the people writing this PR at Sony are perfectly aware of the actual meaning of words and of the actual sales of the products, and as such they are lying.
But there is no "balance" to everything. Opinions may vary and it's a very good thing to present different opinions (that's good balance), but the "balancing" part of truth is either lies or ignorance. I don't like how current journalists always strive to bring you "balance" in the sense of "a different story" (not a different perspective). When confronted with a set of facts, two parties can interpret them in different ways. That's differing opinions, and actual "balance". But if one party comes with its own set of "facts" or changes the definitions/metrics while debating, that's not "balance". That's someone telling the truth and someone lying/being misinformed, and the good way out is not to chalk it up to some "balance" and split the difference. The halfway point between "truth" and "lie" is still a lie.
In which case I don't see how we can be on disagreement on this very specific matter. Facts are :
- the gap between PSP and DS units sold has been growing last month if you go by the usual definition in this context.
- Sony PR claims otherwise.
I'm really sorry about that, and I apologize for my less than tactful tone, which is provoked by what I see as desperate spinning unfit of someone I generally can have an honest disagreement with.
I would have swallowed (perhaps with a sarcastic comment or two) a Sony PR claiming "Well, in its current price bracket the PSP is selling absolutely great, is meeting and exceeding our best expectations, and the customers we are reaching to are definitely happy with their purchase.", or something about there being no direct competition with Nintendo. Instead, what they said was "we are closing the gap with our competition", which is not true. There is a fine line between spin and lie, and they crossed it.
Sorry for using an hyperbole in this part, that's what getting hot under the collar gets you. But IIRC we had this discussion once, the expectations for the PSP were quite high for pretty much everyone (Sony themselves, analysts, PS fans, most gamers, industry insiders). It irks me to see those people not eating their crow while it's hot like gentlemen, but instead fall back on sorry excuses, especially when they ridiculed those exact same excuses when made by NGC fans.
That was a bit of a rethorical question. If Nintendo had released a nonsense PR claiming "closing the gap with the PS2" based on a single month of data with a stockless PS2 still outselling it, do you agree with me that it would have been ridiculed (and for good reasons) by the very same people right now trying to spin this Sony PR ?
Anyway, sorry for becoming angry earlier, back to our regular gentlemanly debate.
Good point. However, I'd counter that with the fact that Canada (by far the second largest market in N/A) has sales that are a mere blip compared with the US. Maybe 10% at best. It wouldn't make sense for Sony to ship that many consoles to Canada.
In that light, that would mean that there are ~400k units still floating around in the US if they allocated consoles based on demand and size of market.
i was gonna start another thread about this but anyways
WRT to the ppl here, why are the vast majority of comparisons with ps3 + xb360.
they completely ignore the wii
is it
A/ it looks increasing like the wii will be the biggest selling console this time generation, thus by ignoring it ppl hope to change this result
B/ the majority of posters here are male in their teens + 20s, which is what sony + ms are targetting, unlike nintendo
C/ ppl think that its not a true next generation console, whereas in fact u could equally argue its the only true next gen console
WRT to the ppl here, why are the vast majority of comparisons with ps3 + xb360.
they completely ignore the wii
is it
A/ it looks increasing like the wii will be the biggest selling console this time generation, thus by ignoring it ppl hope to change this result
B/ the majority of posters here are male in their teens + 20s, which is what sony + ms are targetting, unlike nintendo
C/ ppl think that its not a true next generation console, whereas in fact u could equally argue its the only true next gen console
Where does the price drop "news" come from ? Are those estimates for this quarter ? next quarter ? Fall 2007 or 2008 ? Which game(s) are you using as a reference for the demand change ? (Other than "I figure") ?
For month Feb, it's the shortest month in the year (or 4 weeks, if they count it by week rather than calendar month). VF 5 was released in mid-late Feb (So essentially it's the same game base for first part of Feb). Some may even wait for the March launch to see the updated firmware, or Casino Royale. Why can't the Feb number be lower than Jan ?
Why ?
EDIT: Looking at mrcorbo's and rounin's posts, may be I shouldn't have posted... just to end this line of discussion.
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@ChefO
I think there is an issue with trying to take limited data and turn it into specific projections. As rounin points out it seems to be a futile effort, because with the limited data we have so far even with just minor changes in the next couple of months these projections would be completely invalidated.
I understand that these are your estimates, but they have so little foundation that any discussion about them is pretty much pointless.
Now if you want to speak more in terms of generalities and trends without trying to attach specific numbers it may be easier for people to go along with. Just my $0.02.
One projection I have made in the past and will continue to stick with is the longer Sony takes to achieve some meaningful sales momentum (meaning beyond the initial launch frenzies) the harder this momentum will be to achieve.
I think there is an issue with trying to take limited data and turn it into specific projections. As rounin points out it seems to be a futile effort, because with the limited data we have so far even with just minor changes in the next couple of months these projections would be completely invalidated.
I understand that these are your estimates, but they have so little foundation that any discussion about them is pretty much pointless.
Now if you want to speak more in terms of generalities and trends without trying to attach specific numbers it may be easier for people to go along with. Just my $0.02.
One projection I have made in the past and will continue to stick with is the longer Sony takes to achieve some meaningful sales momentum (meaning beyond the initial launch frenzies) the harder this momentum will be to achieve.
DUALDISASTER
Newcomer
Funny how some people here can claim that they don't root for a platform but with that same face throw phrases of "DS demolishes PSP" and all the doom and gloom constantly rehashed in every thread. Stop it! We know you favor Nintendo, Grow up! And you guys wonder why Nintendo brand is tagged with the title of childishness. PSP is doing wonderfully now, even with the lack of games. There's success in the PSP of they release some damn games. PS3 has done what no console of that price did...and that is sell. It's very expensive and yet still sell very close to it's competitors. Even though it's Playstation, it's still 600 dollars, the numbers release are more than i expected IMO. A brand name can only go so far. It acturally makes me chuckle knowing there's people who thought it'll sell 3x the competitor's numbers. Sony is playing a very risky game of balance, and i must comend them for having the balls to do so and hope they'll succeed. Truth is no one knows how this is going to pan out, you can do all the guessing you want and something could change everything. So can we close these type threads and wait for something significant to base success or failure?
PSP is doing wonderfully now, even with the lack of games. There's success in the PSP of they release some damn games. PS3 has done what no console of that price did...and that is sell. It's very expensive and yet still sell very close to it's competitors. Even though it's Playstation, it's still 600 dollars, the numbers release are more than i expected IMO. A brand name can only go so far. It acturally makes me chuckle knowing there's people who thought it'll sell 3x the competitor's numbers. Sony is playing a very risky game of balance, and i must comend them for having the balls to do so and hope they'll succeed. Truth is no one knows how this is going to pan out, you can do all the guessing you want and something could change everything. So can we close these type threads and wait for something significant to base success or failure?The 3DO actually sold 6million @ $700 back in 1993-5 in the states...
DUALDISASTER
Newcomer
Thanks for the correction. Althought that was a 2 year period i was under the impression that i sold horribly based off some people. That say a lot about the price of ps3...
Funny how some people here can claim that they don't root for a platform but with that same face throw phrases of "DS demolishes PSP" and all the doom and gloom constantly rehashed in every thread. Stop it! We know you favor Nintendo, Grow up! And you guys wonder why Nintendo brand is tagged with the title of childishness.
Sales is the measure of success or failure for a console. This thread is discussing the latest sales data available. We could all close our eyes for 4 years and proclaim the success or failure but what's the fun in that? :smile: Might as well proclaim the sky is blue, or any other obvious fact.
@zed
Interesting note and I think it really stems from the idea that xb360 and ps3 are after the same market. Wii seems to be positioning itself as a distinctly different offering. Nothing negative or positive to draw from the difference - just different. Personally i think it's a great thing as it is expanding the market from all accounts to nongamers which will bring many benefits to the industry in years to come.
@Patsu
My estimations were a range (+/-) to get an idea of future sales. You and Rounin disagree with any sort of prediction whatsoever, and that's fine. I enjoy predicting future trends.
Sorry if that offends anyone.fyi - EU nums based on US nums by looking at historical ps2 sales.
@mrcorbo
The numbers were a general outlook. Obviously they will be adjusted based on sales data as it comes to paint a more accurate picture.
scooby_dooby
Legend
D) It competes for a totally different demographic, and as such is not really competing directly with PS3 and 360. Rather, it's drawing in a new demographic of gamers, that would not have otherwise bought a next gen console.
If you are a gamer who likes indepth RPG's, Shooters, Racers, Sandbox games etc etc, the Wii is not really an option.
DUALDISASTER
Newcomer
We've discussed this over and over. There is nothing to discuss know.
The problem with the 3DO was that at launch it looked great, far more powerful than anything else on the market, but the year after the PSOne launched which was more powerful and cheaper, much cheaper. Thats what killed it.