Final confirmed Jan NPD's

They were profitable from day one. Sold 6 million units.

Most gamers would call that a failure.

Show me the final numbers. According to wiki:
"After struggling for several years, the company filed for Chapter 11 bankruptcy in May 2003. Employees were laid off, and the company's game brands and other intellectual properties were sold to rivals like Microsoft, Namco, Crave, and Ubisoft, and also to founder Trip Hawkins, who paid $405,000 for rights to some older brands and the company's "Internet patent portfolio".

Is Chapter 11 companies profitable ?

Regardless, As Scooby said I don't get what you're arguing. I agree profitability is important from a business perspective but from a gamer perspective do I care that MS lost $4billion on xb1? No.

I would be concerned however if the gaming divisions losses were throwing the company in financial jeopordy as this puts my potential games library at risk. ;)

You don't care about US$4b loss to Xbox for 4 years and you gave Sony less than 3 months to throw in the FUD ? :rolleyes:
 
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You don't care about US$4b loss to Xbox for 4 years and you gave Sony less than 3 months to throw in the FUD ? :rolleyes:

PS3 gave Sony roughly $0.833 Billion in losses in Q3 '06. That's 21% of xbox1 losses in One Quarter (or 1/16th the time)

http://www.beyond3d.com/forum/showthread.php?t=38142&highlight=sony+financial

Again that's beside the point but you want to bring profit/loss into "success" so at this point PS3 is a failure?

continued on profitability:
If I-supply's numbers are to be believed of ~$250/console loss and ps3 sells 12million this year that's $3 Billion in losses for 1 year. That's a lot of software royalties they need to dig out of that hole. ;)

Bluray will get cheaper
65nm
manufacturing efficiencies

Let's assume this shaves $150 off the BOM, Do you think they pocket the cash or price drop? My guess, price drop of $100 this year:
This puts their losses at $200/ps3 and again selling the other 6 million after the savings & pricedrop gives them a total loss of $2.7 Billion for the year in hardware.

continued profit/loss:
Assume price drop of $100/yr to maintain brisk sales and HW savings continue at a pace of $150/yr, this puts Sony at a total of $6.5Billion in losses for ps3 HW through 2010. ;)
 
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You don't care about US$4b loss to Xbox for 4 years and you gave Sony less than 3 months to throw in the FUD ? :rolleyes:

Microsoft made a couple of "rookie mistakes" in designing the XBOX which made it nearly impossible to cost reduce over it's lifetime. This pretty much doomed it from the beginning to either be marginalized due to a high retail price or lose a bunch of money on each console sold. They chose the second option, but either way profitability just wasn't possible. It did, however, set the stage for the 360.

Profitability is very possible and a real goal this round, I think.
 
Microsoft made a couple of "rookie mistakes" in designing the XBOX which made it nearly impossible to cost reduce over it's lifetime. This pretty much doomed it from the beginning to either be marginalized due to a high retail price or lose a bunch of money on each console sold. They chose the second option, but either way profitability just wasn't possible. It did, however, set the stage for the 360.

Profitability is very possible and a real goal this round, I think.

It seems the only thing that matters for success is Profitability, thus the only console worth owning right now is Wii. xb360 might be considered a Success one day but probably not for another year or two. PS3, who knows with how much they're losing per box.;)
 
PS3 gave Sony roughly $0.833 Billion in losses in Q3 '06. That's 21% of xbox1 losses in One Quarter (or 1/16th the time)

http://www.beyond3d.com/forum/showthread.php?t=38142&highlight=sony+financial

Again that's beside the point but you want to bring profit/loss into "success" so at this point PS3 is a failure?

continued on profitability:
If I-supply's numbers are to be believed of ~$250/console loss and ps3 sells 12million this year that's $3 Billion in losses for 1 year. That's a lot of software royalties they need to dig out of that hole. ;)

Bluray will get cheaper
65nm
manufacturing efficiencies

Let's assume this shaves $150 off the BOM, Do you think they pocket the cash or price drop? My guess, price drop of $100 this year:
This puts their losses at $200/ps3 and again selling the other 6 million after the savings & pricedrop gives them a total loss of $2.7 Billion for the year in hardware.

continued:
Assume price drop of $100/yr to maintain brisk sales and HW savings continue at a pace of $150/yr, this puts Sony at a total of $6.5Billion in losses for ps3 HW through 2010. ;)

Yes ! PS3 and Xbox 360 are both unproven at this point.
As for your paper calculations, they are futile. Most businesses (are forced to) take a loss during first 2 years and then attempt to make a profit later. All the more reason why we should wait for PS3 to prove itself. Incidentally, this makes Apple and Nintendo gods in marketing. :yes:

mrcorbo said:
Profitability is very possible and a real goal this round, I think.

No disagreement there actually. :)

EDIT:

TheChefO said:
It seems the only thing that matters for success is Profitability, thus the only console worth owning right now is Wii. xb360 might be considered a Success one day but probably not for another year or two. PS3, who knows with how much they're losing per box.

See above. No need for PS3 FUDs (Xbox 360 picture is not all hunky-dory too).
The truth is out there. Like many gamers, I'm just enjoying good games and utility from whatever consoles I own.
 
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Yes ! PS3 and Xbox 360 are both unproven at this point.
As for your paper calculations, they are futile. Most businesses (are forced to) take a loss during first 2 years and then attempt to make a profit later. All the more reason why we should wait for PS3 to prove itself. Incidentally, this makes Apple and Nintendo gods in marketing. :yes:



No disagreement there actually. :)

So you have a Wii then? :p
 
Prepare to buy one (Friends overseas also IM'ed me to get for 'em). Can't find it. I'm not in a rush because I'm waiting for my kid to grow older so I can shake the stick at him and vice versa.

alright ... I'll let you off the hook then :p I'm going to hold you to your profitability measure for success though.;)
 
alright ... I'll let you off the hook then :p I'm going to hold you to your profitability measure for success though.;)

Was not even aware that I'm on any hook. Your posts do show strong bias towards Xbox 360s and FUDs against PS3. In any case, their respective investors will track it for me. Like I said, it's a universal measurement all the way down to their employees. So why do I have to worry for them ?

EDIT:
Oops and 1 more thing before fans start to run wild with fake numbers. Looking at the vendors... hopefully you give us real numbers not accounting tricks.
 
Show me the final numbers. According to wiki:
"After struggling for several years, the company filed for Chapter 11 bankruptcy in May 2003. Employees were laid off, and the company's game brands and other intellectual properties were sold to rivals like Microsoft, Namco, Crave, and Ubisoft, and also to founder Trip Hawkins, who paid $405,000 for rights to some older brands and the company's "Internet patent portfolio".

Is Chapter 11 companies profitable ?

It filed for bankruptcy in 2003.

Last 3DO sold in a store was in 1996.

How can you assume that the 3DO lost money based on what you just showed. It might have brought in profit, considering how long it took for the firm to file bankcruptcy
 
It filed for bankruptcy in 2003.

Last 3DO sold in a store was in 1996.

How can you assume that the 3DO lost money based on what you just showed. It might have brought in profit, considering how long it took for the firm to file bankcruptcy

I did not assume anything. Show me the final numbers. Did they make more and more money (became more and more profitable) in its ending months ?
 
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NPD Canads sales #'s are out for Jan, it's actually far below the usual 10% ratio:
Wii 34,000
PS2 27,000
360 14,400
PS3 6,800

Only 7000 PS3, I guess that $699 pricepoint is just way to much to handle.

Could be a supply issue though, not a single futureshop in town has one in stock.
wow, thats a huge drop from 2006. they sold 45,000 in 2006. i understand it should be higher in 2006, because of launch and all, but since they were making ps3's in a steady rate after the end of december, i thought there would be more PS3's in Canada.

http://www.gamesindustry.biz/content_page.php?aid=22302

also, where'd you get these numbers from (link)? not doubting you, just would like to know.
 
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NPD Canads sales #'s are out for Jan, it's actually far below the usual 10% ratio:
Wii 34,000
PS2 27,000
360 14,400
PS3 6,800

Only 7000 PS3, I guess that $699 pricepoint is just way to much to handle.

Could be a supply issue though, not a single futureshop in town has one in stock.

I think everyone goes to Futureshop/Best Buy. If you go to Zellers or Toys'R Us, you can find them, or at least I've seen them many times over.
 
I saw about 5 PS3's stacked in a target today.

I guess I'm behind the times but it's pretty much the first time I've seen them blatantly available, though pretty much the only other store I go to is Wal Mart which I think is too lazy to stock much of anything in sight as far as I can tell (they have usually very little vidgame hardware of any stripe behind the glass, I assume they're all in the back, Wal Mart sucks).

I also saw a note somewhere about these January NPD's that the ASP (average selling price) on PS3's was about $598, and on 360's about $392, so the respective core pack sales are virtually non-existent (especially for PS3, though I think they're not very available).
 
Crossbar said:
What is the ratio between the 360 core/premium models world wide? 1 : 10 maybe? In my neighbourhood you hardly find the core version at all. Do you think that will change dramatically in the future?

I have no idea what the ratio is. I know you can get either one you want though at retail.

I think overall there will always be a BOM cost difference. Perhaps not as high as $50 (Maybe as low as $30, who knows) but by the time the BOM difference is anywhere close to this realm it will be a moot point as XBOX3, PS4, & WIIHD will be knocking at the door.
It would be really interesting to know what the 360 core/premium ratio is, because it really shows, what kind of value people give the harddrive. Let say it is 1:5 world wide, I personally don´t think that ratio would start to change dramatically at a certain price point.

I think your BOM difference will be much less than $30-$50 in reality if that is taken into account as well. The BOM gap may be almost closed within 3 years from now, the PS2 lived 6 years before the PS3 entered the market, I think it sold in pretty significant volumes in those years, and still is I might add.

I think your prediction of the future PS3 BOM is unwarranted.
 
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When I was in a Walmart just north of Toronto (Woodbridge) last week they had no Wii's, one 360 premium and one PS3. The week before they had no Wii's no PS3's and at least a dozen 360's.
 
I did not assume anything. Show me the final numbers. Did they make more and more money (became more and more profitable) in its ending months ?

You are assuming something, you basically said that because [company] went bankrupt, they didnt make money.

If what thechef is saying is true (That they sold the 3DO for a profit from the get go, just like nintendo) Yes they have profits.

I cannot show you final numbers, because i do not have access to the companies records that are this old.

The console itself however, was made\released by Sanyo, Panasonic and Goldstar (today known as LG). The console was manufactured by the 3DO Company.

After getting killed in terms of sales by the other consoles, and the PSone being the final nail in the cofin at 1995, they sold their next-gen console, and started making games instead. The sales spiked. They didnt really have a chance to get more sales either. Do you

A: Stop making the console and take whatever youve earned
B: Try to gain marked share by lowering prices by a lot and take a loss with the potential of earning more money?

So we know they did actually have plans to make a second console, so chances are, they did not loose much money. The fact that the company now is bankrupt is irrelevant as to wether or not 3do was sold at a profit, we can say for a fact, it didnt bankrupt because of the 3do. (You did however, imply that did it).

You have no chance of knowing if it was profitable or not. If it followed nintendo's model, it probably was. Any guy that has studied finance knows that if the probabilty (aka risk) of earning money in the future on a project is impossibly small (beating the hype train behind Sony's PS1, was an impossible task, without loosing money), you sell out. Positive NPV or not, you sell out.

Just like, let look at Nintendo, if they closed down the shop after selling 10 million Wii consoles. They earn money on every console sold, we know that cost per console is smaller and smaller, if the RD costs were small enough so they actually turned a profit .

The project, if we discount with a whatever discount rate we want to use, adjusted with risk, the project may still have a postivie NPV, but the risk will be considered to high.

Or, as in the 3do's case, it probably suffered from a term called underinvestment, along with the way to high risk projects.

Nope... just as a business. As long as you make money and have positive cash flow, you're good and can figure out the next move as you go

No serious business works like that. Having a positive cash flow means nothing by itself, unless you discount it and look at the NPV (net present value). On paper it may look like your earning money, but in reality your loosing money :

Example:

Lets say you have the following cashflow (each +\- is a years cashflow):

-100 +20 +20 +20 +20 +20 +20

Obviously, looking only at the cashflow, it will look as if after 5 years, the investment starts paying of. By the end of year 7, you have +20 cashflow. However, let say that you can get 10% risk free interest, somewhere else, then you have to discount it.

-100 + 20\1.1 + 20\1.1^2 +20\1.1^3 + 20\1.1^4 +20\1.1^5 +20\1.1^2

The net present value of this is actually -24.18, because after you discount the cashflow its actually only bringing in 75,82, and not 120 as it would seem.

Thus, in reality you have actually lost money on this investement.

Further, projects that give positive NPV's may still not get investet in, due to something we call underinvestment, which i dont feel like explaining right now.
 
You are assuming something, you basically said that because [company] went bankrupt, they didnt make money.

The original question was whether Xbox or GC is more successful. I chose GC because it was profitable. For 3DO, they failed to sustain their profitability and closed (I asked for some numbers to find out what happened). As for Xbox 360 and PS3, I mentioned it's too early to judge because they are still building out their businesses.

I don't think I made any assumptions about 3DO's bankruptcy and whether they made money before. Profitability is better than sales as a gauge because it surfaces the cost element. Naturally, a long term and growing profit is better than a short term, abrupt one.


The rest of your post talks about net present value, which is indeed compatible with the profitability concept (as opposed to just using sales number). So to cut a long story short, I don't think we are disagreeing.
 
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The BOM gap may be almost closed within 3 years from now...

I think your prediction of the future PS3 BOM is unwarranted.

Key words being may follwed by almost.

Ps3 is simply a more complex machine to build with more expensive components in the box. The overall transistor count is higher, Bluray Drive is more complex, HDD (or flash), licensees for Bluetooth and Rambus, Dual buses and HDMI for now. (eventually the ps2 guts will be removed too)

Some of these will come down in costs but so will xb360 costs.

The edram module will be integrated to the gpu and process shrunk just like the cpu. Xb360 will not have to cover costs for hdd or flash or BT or Rambus, or the additional 64bit rambus, or the larger chips:

Die Sizes:
RSX ~250mm2
CELL ~228mm2

xcpu ~168mm2
xenos ~170mm2
edram ~70mm2

ps3@478
vs
xb2@408

CORE Hardware Differences
PS3/XB360
CPU - 228mm/168mm
GPU - 250mm/170mm+70mm
BUS - 128bit+64bit/128bit
STORAGE - HDD(flash)/na
LICENSES - Bluetooth, Rambus, DVD/DVD
 
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Ps3 is simply a more complex machine to build with more expensive components in the box.
.....
CORE Hardware Differences
PS3/XB360
CPU - 228mm/168mm
GPU - 250mm/170mm+70mm
BUS - 128bit+64bit/128bit
STORAGE - HDD(flash)/na
LICENSES - Bluetooth, Rambus, DVD/DVD

Well there are so many unkown parameters in there so our speculations are actually a bit ridicolous.
Just a few details, such as the edram requiring an uncommon potentially more expensive process, the Cell being a standard component could help bring the price down through higher production volumes as weill

Then we have all license fees, we just don´t know the size of:

360
Xenon - IBM
Xenos - ATI
EDRAM - NEC
DVD - ?

PS3
RSX - nvidia
Bluetooth - Bluetooth consortium (probably dirt cheap chips through some Sony-Ericsson deal)
XDR/FlexIO - Rambus
DVD - ?

The most tangible feature is the standard harddrive of the PS3, but as long as no one can show me proof that the core unit is the most sold SKU (or close to), then I think that is a moot argument.
Downloadable content will continue to grow in importance for both the 360 and the PS3, which will make the 360 core model an even more unattractive deal in the future.

I am pretty sure that if MS had known Sony would make the HDD a standard feature, they would have done the same thing, but that was one of the cards that Sony kept close to their chest until spring last year.
 
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