Final confirmed Jan NPD's

[DuckThor Evil]

So, say that someone has 10% of the monthly sales of a competitor. Then the next month, he has 20% of the monthly sales of a competitor. Then the next month, it goes up to 30%. From month-to-month, it keeps going up until finally sales are up to 90% of its competitor, and they stay there.

All this time, the company has to keep his mouth shut, as no trend-watcher, investor or anyone else is going to be interested in these numbers until the company actually starts outselling the competitor, right?

Your problem, and that of many others, is that you are looking at the whole PSP vs DS issue with a preconceived notion of that it is all market domination. As long as the PSP isn't gaining on the DS in absolute units out there, it is not interesting, right?

But that's making the same kind of mistake as saying the GameCube lost the "console war battle" with the Xbox.

Well in my opinion the Gamecube did lost the battle against Xbox, however you could easily argue whether Nintendo lost to MS, on which I don't want to argue.
I personally found inefficients math to be interesting and meaningfull. The gap is not really that important, the percentage is more important. If you sell within 85% of your competition, then your marketshare continues to approach that number and when the install base is significantly large the gap between competitors loses it's meaning e.g 30million vs 10 million is huge difference, but 120m vs 100m is not.

 

[Geo]

That's my problem? You're sure my problem isn't that I wouldn't know what a DS was (nor care) if it bit me on the rear? :smile:

Yeah, that math is based on infinity. If you go out to infinity then it will work out. Is that likely? An infinite lifetime for these products? How 'bout we take a 5 year life-cycle and see where you're at at the end of it with those numbers?

Part of what I find curious is the idea that it's okay for Sony to shoot for market parity with XB360 for PS3, as if PS2 wasn't the 500lb gorilla of the market and clearly ought to be the standard for market dominance that PS3 should aspire to. Not XB360. I suspect if you'd offered the XB crew in Redmond market parity on launch day for this generation, they'd have snapped it up in a heartbeat and started high-fiving. (Tho having said that, I don't know anyone who doesn't think when Europe weighs in that they'll start closing the gap for real, not these 'lies, damned lies, and statistics' ways).

 

[scooby_dooby]

For handhelds

Dec
DS 11.44 61.6%
PSP 7.13 38.4%

Jan
DS +239k = 11.68mil 61.4%
PSP +211k = 7.34mil 38.6%

Lol, that's not closing the gap, it's slowing the rate at which the gap is widening!

 

[TheChefO]

*Sigh* As mentioned, consumer demand fluctuates as the situation changes. I actually edited my previous post to include more info. I'm not really interested in guessed numbers especially since many, including yourself, got it wrong by a wide margin.

EDIT: Again I repeat, the 1 mil/month is shipping number... not a (consumer) sales target.

Patsu, I understand your point but I think you're missing mine.

If they are consistantly selling less than 1m/mo they will be left with a surplus sitting somewhere.

If this surplus is 200k/mo that would equate to 2.4million per year. I realize my numbers are not exact and are extrapolated however they do show what I believe to be a realistic range of probability.

The point of bringing up the monthly manufacture target in the first place is a point of reference for expectation. Many "analysts" on and off this forum were of the opinion that this target would leave them supply limited. This opinion was in effect as recently as this December when it seemed ps3 was supply limited.

Reality seems to show that true demand for ps3 at this point is:
~250k/mo US
~100k/mo JP
350k/mo total

Leaving 650k/mo as surplus supply for EU. For some reason I don't think EU will soak up this monthly supply.

 

[Pugger]

I maybe alone in my thinking here, but really I don't understand why gamers worry about sales data. Yep I can understand the console 'Fan' worried about his/her console not selling as much as a competitor but ultimately any fan of any inanimate object tends to worry me. It seems to me that more than ever before what ever console wins this so called next generation war, its not as important as once it may have been. Nearly all the games being produced will be multiformat bar those which are first party. We all know development costs are sky high even on modest budgeted games and so it’s less likely that the likes of Sony MS or Nintendo will be willing to pay the exclusive costs, its just not worth it. Most 3rd party developers will releas titles across the board. So if sales or lack off are not influencing what platforms games are being developed on why worry at all what the console of your choice is selling?

 

[Corwin_B]

The gap is closing.

Dec
360 5.33mil 85%
PS3 0.93mil 15%

Jan
360 +300k = 5.63mil 83%
PS3 +250k = 1.18mil 17%

See how that works? You actually don't need to sell more units than the competition to close the gap. Isn't math fun?

How about we look at it that way :
Dec : 4.4mil gap
Jan : 4.45mil gap

How is the gap closing, exactly ? When you sell less than your competitor, the gap widens, end of discussion. You may gain marketshare, but that's another story entirely, and not what the Sony spokeperson said. What you are doing is not math, it's changing the definition to fit your agenda.

For handhelds

Dec
DS 11.44 61.6%
PSP 7.13 38.4%

Jan
DS +239k = 11.68mil 61.4%
PSP +211k = 7.34mil 38.6%

Dec : 4.13mil gap
Jan : 4.34mil gap

How is that gap closing ?

 

[inefficient]

Dec : 4.13mil gap
Jan : 4.34mil gap

How is that gap closing ?

As proportion of the install base, the gap is closing.

Everything is relative - including truth.

 

[Cheezdoodles]

The gap is closing.

Dec
360 5.33mil 85%
PS3 0.93mil 15%

Jan
360 +300k = 5.63mil 83%
PS3 +250k = 1.18mil 17%

See how that works? You actually don't need to sell more units than the competition to close the gap. Isn't math fun?


For handhelds

Dec
DS 11.44 61.6%
PSP 7.13 38.4%

Jan
DS +239k = 11.68mil 61.4%
PSP +211k = 7.34mil 38.6%

% of markedshare isnt really that relevant and neither is it very interesting. Its simple as hell to close the gap.

Look:

Xbox 360 10million =100%

Today i launch the Ostepop Console:

Xbox 360 10million = 99,999999%
Ostepop Console 1 console = 0,0000001%

By next week month i have sold 100k while the X360 sold 300k
Xbox 360 10,3 m = 99,038%
Ostepop Console 100k = 0,00962%
Total marked 10,4m = 100%

In reality, the x360 has sold 200k more consoles that month, it INCREASED its gap by 200k consoles, compared to my Ostepop console.

Now watch what happends:

Xbox 360 10,3 + 300k = 98,149 %
Ostepop console 100k + 100k = 0,01851%
Total marked 10,8 m = 100%

Now, in reality, the X360 increased its gap by another 200k consoles this week. But because we are basing it on percentages, it looks like i somehow closed the gap to the competition.

However, we did gain markedshare. Why? Because in order to maintain the marketshare you need to sell Xtimes more than the rest.

It raises exponentially, so its impossible to actually not keep closing the gap based on your silly math inneficcient, unless you sell extremely low amounts of consoles.

You know that the X360 is, if we use your numbers closing the gap in japan vs the PS3?

 

[DuckThor Evil]

Lol, that's not closing the gap, it's slowing the rate at which the gap is widening!

Well if your marketshare is increasing I think you have a base to argue that the gap is in fact decreasing even though it really isn't. I think marketshare is more important than gaps.

 

[Readykilowatt]

I maybe alone in my thinking here, but really I don't understand why gamers worry about sales data. Yep I can understand the console 'Fan' worried about his/her console not selling as much as a competitor but ultimately any fan of any inanimate object tends to worry me. It seems to me that more than ever before what ever console wins this so called next generation war, its not as important as once it may have been. Nearly all the games being produced will be multiformat bar those which are first party. We all know development costs are sky high even on modest budgeted games and so it’s less likely that the likes of Sony MS or Nintendo will be willing to pay the exclusive costs, its just not worth it. Most 3rd party developers will releas titles across the board. So if sales or lack off are not influencing what platforms games are being developed on why worry at all what the console of your choice is selling?

 

[TheChefO]

The gap is closing.

Dec
360 5.33mil 85%
PS3 0.93mil 15%

Jan
360 +300k = 5.63mil 83%
PS3 +250k = 1.18mil 17%

See how that works? You actually don't need to sell more units than the competition to close the gap. Isn't math fun?


For handhelds

Dec
DS 11.44 61.6%
PSP 7.13 38.4%

Jan
DS +239k = 11.68mil 61.4%
PSP +211k = 7.34mil 38.6%

sales gap = difference between sales

Dec
DS 11.44 61.6%
PSP 7.13 38.4%

Jan
DS +239k = 11.68mil 61.4%
PSP +211k = 7.34mil 38.6%

Dec gap = 4.31m
Jan gap = 0.028m

The monthly sales gap is closing from Dec to Jan. The platform gap in total is slowing in growth.

 

[Corwin_B]

So, say that someone has 10% of the monthly sales of a competitor. Then the next month, he has 20% of the monthly sales of a competitor. Then the next month, it goes up to 30%. From month-to-month, it keeps going up until finally sales are up to 90% of its competitor, and they stay there.

All this time, the company has to keep his mouth shut, as no trend-watcher, investor or anyone else is going to be interested in these numbers until the company actually starts outselling the competitor, right?

Talking about percentage and "marketshare" is all the rage nowadays, it seems. If we translate your scenario in absolute terms, say Product A (the incumbent) sells at a constant 100K per month, and product B (the challenger) starts at 10%. That is 10K. The sales gap is 90K. Month 2, the gap widens to 170K (+100K for A, +20K for B). By the time you reach that 90% of product A sales on a monthly basis, the totals are 900K for product A, 450K for product B, and a 450K gap. Banking on product B seems a very smart thing to do, indeed !

If product B starts outselling product A one day, and a trend settles, then of course it's big news. Because it means that given enough time, product B can reach the total installed base of product A.

Of course, the company making product can of course communicate on its product in many ways. Just not saying "Our product B is closing the gap with product A" when it isn't.

Your problem, and that of many others, is that you are looking at the whole PSP vs DS issue with a preconceived notion of that it is all market domination. As long as the PSP isn't gaining on the DS in absolute units out there, it is not interesting, right?

Oh, bitter tears. Oh, the irony. How long have the Sony faithfuls ridiculed the NGC on that very basis ? How about your problem, and that of many others, is that since the news are not good for Sony, you are twisting admitted industry measures and inventing new terminologies that paint Sony in the best possible light ?

BTW, the whole expectations about PSP, including Sony's, was not about "gaining some marketshare", it was about making Nintendo irrelevant ("those formats don't appear in our planning"), reducing them to Pokemon, and "getting handheld gaming out of the ghetto". Every single PS fan was crowing about how the handheld battle was all but won in advance and how after winning two consoles generation, Sony was about to redo the same thing in the portable space. Now, they are reduced to talking about "Nobody expected Sony to win on the first try", "Nintendo had a monopoly on handheld gaming, so gaining some marketshare is good news" and "non-games don't count".

If last gen, NGC had one month been less outsold than usually by PS2 (because of shortages, that probably happened during the PS2-PSTwo transition) and Nintendo had issued a press release about "closing the gap", how would this have gone with the PS fans ?

 

[Cheezdoodles]

Every single PS fan was crowing about how the handheld battle was all but won in advance and how after winning two consoles generation, Sony was about to redo the same thing in the portable space. Now, they are reduced to talking about "Nobody expected Sony to win on the first try", "Nintendo had a monopoly on handheld gaming, so gaining some marketshare is good news" and "non-games don't count".

And now with the PS3 its all "Well its 600 and has no games"...

The same people who argued how much more value it is compared to the X360, and how the price wont matter, and how its Sony so it will sell well no matter what, are now reduced to that single argument.

 

[Crossbar]

Leaving 650k/mo as supply for EU. For some reason I don't think EU will soak up this monthly supply.

I don´t want to nit-pick, but the PAL-territory consists of more countries than the EU countries, someone may be offended.
Though EU is a big part of it

Anyway, what is the big deal? Sony seems to be doing quite well in the TV console space if you consider both the number of PS2s and PS3s. Sony is obviously in a different position compared to Microsoft and their Xbox and 360 numbers and Nintendo and their GameCube and Wii numbers.

No doubt Sony would like to sell the PS3s in the same numbers as the Wii is selling, but given the price point, I seriously doubt they expected it do that. They choose to put some high tech stuff in their box, among that a new generation of storage media and ended up with an expensive box.

I think Sony did this with open eyes and not as an act of arrogance or stupidity as some people seem to imply. Sony still has the PS2 that sells in droves. I think by the time the PS2 numbers start to fade, the PS3 numbers will start picking up, driven by factors such as well known game franchises, push of the 20 GB model and of course price reduction at some point (probably coupled to some major cost reduction in he manufacturing, the manufacturing cost of the 360 and the PS3 will eventually end up pretty much the same).

I don´t think you should be so worried about Sony.

 

[TheChefO]

And now with the PS3 its all "Well its 600 and has no games"...

"Funny" thing about that is that response is ajoined with a "what do you expect?" tone as if everyone expected sales this slow.

Regarding PSP, it is getting demolished by DS, this is nothing new. But it is serving it's purpose of getting the "Playstation" name established in the handheld market.

Expectations:

Honestly I thought PSP would outsell DS just as Sony did. However their arrogance when marketing the PSP in hindsight is laughable. Arrogance currently would be idiotic, but I didn't get that tone from their latest PR. More like optimistic spin.

PS3 I thought would have trouble, but not this significant. Sony + Industry + Analysts + Fans thought the targets were not only reasonable, but supply limited.

 

[TheChefO]

I think by the time the PS2 numbers start to fade, the PS3 numbers will start picking up, driven by factors such as well known game franchises, push of the 20 GB model and of course price reduction at some point (probably coupled to some major cost reduction in he manufacturing, the manufacturing cost of the 360 and the PS3 will eventually end up pretty much the same).

These two points I believe are misleading.
Games selection follows userbase which is owned by xb360 with Wii catching quick.
BOM will always be more expensive (this gen) on ps3 due to a few factors (HDD, dual busses, licensing rambus, larger chips) so by the end of the cycle we will likely always be looking at a $50+ gap in price between these platforms.

Given that most "well known" games will be multiplat and there will always be a price premium of at least $50, what makes you think it will catch xb360 aside from its likely continued dismissal in Japan?

 

[Arwin]

Of course, the company making product can of course communicate on its product in many ways. Just not saying "Our product B is closing the gap with product A" when it isn't.

You speak as if ''the gap" is a context-free absolute. That's nonsense. You're also talking as if I'm saying that the PSP suddenly looks like it will start gaining on the DS. That is also nonsense. I've just been taking issue with the 'it's all lies!' comment. I'm both a humanist and a linguist, see?

Oh, bitter tears. Oh, the irony. How long have the Sony faithfuls ridiculed the NGC on that very basis ? How about your problem, and that of many others, is that since the news are not good for Sony, you are twisting admitted industry measures and inventing new terminologies that paint Sony in the best possible light ?

I hate when people or companies or even animals are falsely accused of things. In fact, I hate one-sidedness, ignorance, bias, and so on. So I do my best to compensate and bring alternative views to light, when they are plausible enough. I care about facts, and facts only. We've had fairly civil and mature debates on the relative merits of the PSP and DS before, and I'm somewhat saddened by your new, more aggressive discourse methods.

BTW, the whole expectations about PSP, including Sony's, was not about "gaining some marketshare", it was about making Nintendo irrelevant ("those formats don't appear in our planning"), reducing them to Pokemon, and "getting handheld gaming out of the ghetto".

Or Sony really did try to position the PSP differently on the market than the DS. Maybe a bit of both, then, perhaps? Nuance isn't so difficult as so many people make it seem these days, you know.

Every single PS fan

Lies! Impossible to prove already no matter what the rest of the sentence reads! Corwin_B is teh evil and everything he stands for is teh doomed ...

If last gen, NGC had one month been less outsold than usually by PS2 (because of shortages, that probably happened during the PS2-PSTwo transition) and Nintendo had issued a press release about "closing the gap", how would this have gone with the PS fans ?

Why are you writing this? Did you even read my post? Is our conversation ever going to make sense again and return to civil debate? All these questions ...

 

[patsu]

Patsu, I understand your point but I think you're missing mine.

If they are consistantly selling less than 1m/mo they will be left with a surplus sitting somewhere.

Huh ? The same is happening to Xbox 360, so why don't you worry for them too ? In some months (like holiday seasons) and some locations, the sales will pick up. In other months/locations, the sales will fall. Vendors will run promotions to help move products when things slow down. The sales number you see this month include MS selling Xbox 360 at promotional/special prices too to spike demand. It does not mean Xbox 360 is bailing out.

On the supply side.... At some point in time, either Sony will sell beyond 1 mil per month, or they wll reduce production. Depending on how well they plan/execute, there may be gaps too when they switch to 65nm design, lack certain components, or when shipment get delayed for whatever reasons, etc. The picture is always dynamic but Sony will always exercise control.

Supply chain is a difficult problem and billions are spent on it. It is not primary school math.

Reality seems to show that true demand for ps3 at this point is:
~250k/mo US
~100k/mo JP
350k/mo total

Leaving 650k/mo as surplus supply for EU. For some reason I don't think EU will soak up this monthly supply.

What reality ? You're looking at 1 snapshot with your own simplistic view of supply-chain. Demand in marketing is a curve. How do you theorize anything with 1 or 2 points near launch ? It's a title-business and a marathon based on Sony's strategy. For your info, the marketing professors I worked with usually need at least a year worth of data to project trends (accurately).

 

[rounin]

What reality ? You're looking at 1 snapshot with your own simplistic view of supply-chain. Demand in marketing is a curve. How do you theorize anything with 1 or 2 points near launch ? It's a title-business and a marathon based on Sony's strategy. For your info, the marketing professors I worked with usually need at least a year worth of data to project trends (accurately).

That's basically exactly what I've been emphasizing earlier in the thread. However, it dawned on me that the people egging on this argument or debate are either too unscientific or lack the education to understand, or have really nothing better to do and this is just a digital bar where people are shooting the sh!ts so to speak.

I mean, simply look at the data points for the PS2 vs PS1 sales for the first 4 (thats even more than what you have now!) that I posted earlier and try to deduce PS2 sales. I'll even let you take into account the lack of games and other factors.

I'm sorry, but I directed my post at no one. ... Unlike others who feel the need to personally attack.

...speaking of poor form.

I already Todd reported for his personal attack. But yours was one of the factors leading to his reply so I felt the need to point you out as well.

 

[TheChefO]

Huh ? The same is happening to Xbox 360, so why don't you worry for them too ? In some months (like holiday seasons) and some locations, the sales will pick up. In other months/locations, the sales will fall. Vendors will run promotions to help move products when things slow down. The sales number you see this month include MS selling Xbox 360 at promotional/special prices too to spike demand. It does not mean Xbox 360 is bailing out.

Agreed 100%.
MS looks like they will not hit their original goal of 15m by summer and have adjusted back to 12m.

On the supply side.... At some point in time, either Sony will sell beyond 1 mil per month, or they wll reduce production. Depending on how well they plan/execute, there may be gaps too when they switch to 65nm design, or when shipment get delayed for whatever reasons, etc. The picture is always dynamic but Sony will always exercise control.

Supply chain is a difficult problem and billions are spent on it. It is not primary school math.

Agreed 100%
Everyone will adjust to supply to match demand to the best of their abilities.

What reality ? You're looking at 1 snapshot with your own simplistic view of supply-chain. Demand in marketing is a curve. How do you theorize anything with 1 or 2 points near launch ? It's a title-business and a marathon based on Sony's strategy. For your info, the marketing professors I worked with usually need at least a year worth of data to project trends (accurately).

Patsu, I'm sorry if I was not more clear but, I did underline "at this point". I followed that with current sales. Sure demand will fluctuate. So will price and games selection. How much is anyone's guess. My estimate is 250-350k/mo for the US and the same for EU for this year and 100-150k/mo in Japan.