Final confirmed Jan NPD's

[patsu]

Agreed there is some wiggle room but that is the rub isn't it... What is going to keep that 1m/mo ps3 chain moving?

You don't have to cast any doubt. Same answer... why worry ? Sony and their partners will do their best. The Jan number is based on just a handful of launch games and semi-done OS services. If they can't make it collectively, then that's too bad for them.

Xbox 360 has higher shipping-vs-retail unit gap in my random Bay area sample based on just 1 snapshot. This does not mean anything yet, but it's just for reference.

 

[TheChefO]

You don't have to cast any doubt. Same answer... why worry ? Sony and their partners will do their best. Xbox 360 has higher shipping-vs-retail unit gap in my random Bay area sample based on just 1 snapshot. This does not mean anything yet, but it's just for reference.

I'm not worried. Based on reasonable numbers, it won't keep that pace.

250k/mo US
150k/mo EU
100k/mo JP

500k/mo total

EU is a guess but even if EU is 250k that is still a long way off from 1m/mo

250k/mo US
250k/mo EU
100k/mo JP

600k/mo total

Price drop soon?
...
350
350
150
850/mo

 

[patsu]

I'm not worried. Based on reasonable numbers, it won't keep that pace.

250k/mo US
150k/mo EU
100k/mo JP

500k/mo total

EU is a guess but even if EU is 250k that is still a long way off from 1m/mo

250k/mo US
250k/mo EU
100k/mo JP

600k/mo total

Price drop soon?
...
350
350
150
850/mo

*Sigh* As mentioned, consumer demand fluctuates as the situation changes. I actually edited my previous post to include more info. I'm not really interested in guessed numbers especially since many, including yourself, got it wrong by a wide margin.

EDIT: Again I repeat, the 1 mil/month is shipping number... not a (consumer) sales target.

 

[StefanS]

Ok, I am bolding this to make sure everyone reads this:

Granted this thread has calmed down a bit, but still I'd like to point out a few things...

First of all, you should listen to your fellow posters and show respect for them. I know this might be difficult in a heated debate such as this one, but it's expected of B3D posters to show some rationality and matureness in their argumentation. So please think about the content of your contribution before hitting the post button.

That's it folks, please continue.

 

[djskribbles]

Sony announced in January that they had shipped 1 million consoles to the US by Christmas. Then that link that was provided in my original quote stated that they have continued to ship 100k consoles to the US per week since the new year. That would be 1.5 million consoles in the US through the end of January.

i believe Sony announced they shipped 1m units to N/A, not the US (1m to N/A and 1m to Japan). so nearly 1m were sold in the US alone. that means just over 500,000 are in all of N/A, not just the US. that also doesn't count the units sold in the rest of N/A because NDP numbers are the US alone. so if this is true, that means there actually isn't very many PS3's in stores (in N/A)

http://www.gamasutra.com/php-bin/news_index.php?story=12408

According to officials from Sony Japan, total hardware shipments for the PlayStation 3 console have now reached 2 million units worldwide, with news of a total of 1 million consoles shipped in Japan.

i'm guessing the rest of N/A only has about 4-500,000 units. so i'm guessing the US has, at most, 1-1.1m PS3's with 950,000 sold. that makes more sense to me as i have seen many people say that the ps3 is sold out in their city (its also sold out here) as well as many online stores. most stores that do have stock, have those useless bundles. over 500,000 sitting on shelves in the US seems too high. 50,000-150,000 seems more realistic.

 

[Jov]

The PS2 had nothing to do with DVD succeeding or taking of as a movie format. The DVD didnt have any real competition, and it was well established before the PS2 was even out.

I'd disagree that the PS2 had 'no' impact on DVD media sales or success, especially when I've seen a number of DVD movies labelled 'PS2 compatible' during 2001 & 2002.

What were people doing with their PS2 for the first 6 months when there were virtually no content (besides playing AAA PS1 games with filtering )?

Prior to the PS2 launch, we already had close to 25million DVD players sold in the US alone. After 2002 there was allready more DVD players sold than PS2 in the states until 2007.

http://www.thedigitalbits.com/articles/cemadvdsales.html

Lets take the year 2001 as a prime example as DVD was starting to hit its strides in its life cycle and the PS2 had a full year of sale in NA.

From the CEA chart there were 13.97mil (12.7mil + 10% for Canada) total players sold in 2001 (excluding PS2) and at the same time ~6.8mil PS2 sold in NA. Giving an approx 2:1 ratio between all other DVD players vs PS2, or in another light the PS2 made up ~32.74% of total DVD capable devices sold in NA in 2001.

So making up roughly 1/3 of the total DVD playback capable devices sold in 2001 had absolutely no impact on the success and rapid uptake of the format in NA?

Anyway we're getting OT.

 

[Arwin]

Here's Sony PR's take on things ...

Biggest Jan sales for Sony, as PS3 finally begins to perform
http://gamesindustry.biz/content_page.php?aid=22952

 

[Cheezdoodles]

Lets take the year 2001 as a prime example as DVD was starting to hit its strides in its life cycle and the PS2 had a full year of sale in NA.

From the CEA chart there were 13.97mil (12.7mil + 10% for Canada) total players sold in 2001 (excluding PS2) and at the same time ~6.8mil PS2 sold in NA. Giving an approx 2:1 ratio between all other DVD players vs PS2, or in another light the PS2 made up ~32.74% of total DVD capable devices sold in NA in 2001.

So making up roughly 1/3 of the total DVD playback capable devices sold in 2001 had absolutely no impact on the success and rapid uptake of the format in NA?

It already was selling tenfolds more than any real competition, in fact there was no real competition, simply, PS2 was not what made people buy DVD players. We had people buying DVD players, and lots of them without the PS2 being here.

1. It had to competition
2. It was already selling well
3. DVD players were outselling PS2, by a lot, even tho, they were priced higher.

Just because the PS2 sold 6million consoles in 2001, does not mean you can attribute it as "what made DVD take off".

Obviously, as we see from sales, people were buying it, and buying a lot of it prior to the PS2s release.

Only fan...enthusiast make that claim, the DVD was the nextgen format winner prior to the PS2s release.

During the first 2 years, people bought 16m PS2's. During the same time, the amount of stand alone DVDplayers were closing in to 50million.

If the PS2 was to get any credit for the DVD at all, it would have had to be the product that catered DVD playback to the masses, which it obviously didn't.

 

[Qroach]

Here's Sony PR's take on things ...

Biggest Jan sales for Sony, as PS3 finally begins to perform
http://gamesindustry.biz/content_page.php?aid=22952

Yeah, nothing but spin.

 

[Qroach]

Just because the PS2 sold 6million consoles in 2001, does not mean you can attribute it as "what made DVD take off".

Obviously, as we see from sales, people were buying it, and buying a lot of it prior to the PS2s release.

Exactly. DVD players were on sale for five years before PS2 was released.

 

[Corwin_B]

Here's Sony PR's take on things ...

Biggest Jan sales for Sony, as PS3 finally begins to perform
http://gamesindustry.biz/content_page.php?aid=22952

"PSP sales in January were exceptionally strong with the system quickly closing the gap on the leading competitor," said Karraker.

Absolute, true, unaltered BS. This is not spin, this is not even dizzying spin, this is a flat-out lie. Since the DS sold more than the PSP (239k vs. 211k), in spite of being actually supply-constrained (unlike the PS3), how is the PSP "closing the gap" ? The gap increased by 28k.

 

[TheChefO]

Absolute, true, unaltered BS. This is not spin, this is not even dizzying spin, this is a flat-out lie. Since the DS sold more than the PSP (239k vs. 211k), in spite of being actually supply-constrained (unlike the PS3), how is the PSP "closing the gap" ? The gap increased by 28k.

Closing the gap meaning lessening the gap. They are presenting the false impression that DS will not widen that gap as soon as N can ramp production ... again.

Unfortunately for Sony, as you stated, DS is still supply limited and will increase the gap next month.

 

[Corwin_B]

Closing the gap meaning lessening the gap.

Which they didn't. The best they can say is that the gap didn't increase as much as in previous months.

They are presenting the false impression that DS will not widen that gap as soon as N can ramp production ... again.

Actually, even production-limited, the DS managed to sell more, and as such increased its lead over the PSP by around 30k units.

 

[tongue_of_colicab]

Its probably going to be even more fun when you start counting software sales.

 

[Arwin]

Closing the gap meaning lessening the gap. They are presenting the false impression that DS will not widen that gap as soon as N can ramp production ... again.

Ok, let's not exaggerate here. It's clear to me that they are talking about monthly sales when they are talking about closing the gap, not overall install base. Your second point is valid though, obviously. It's a bit pointless to make so much of it, but then I guess it is hard not to if you're in PR.

Anyway, it's still easy to overlook that this was Sony's best January ever. Despite that the PSP isn't going to do quite as well as the DS just yet, it's a good number of units for a month of sales, and the PS2, PSP and PS3 add their part. And as the PS3 is an expensive product, it still adds more than half of the revenue, if maybe not yet profit.

 

[Corwin_B]

It's clear to me that they are talking about monthly sales when they are talking about closing the gap, not overall install base.

Arwin, is there anything a Sony exec would say that would make you say "Ok, they went too far this time" ? What kind of meaningful market measure is a "monthly sales gap" (note that they don't say anywhere they are talking about a monthly sales gap) ?

They are not "closing the gap", the gap is increasing, although at a lesser rate than in previous months, not because of their own achievements, but because their competition was supply-limited (queue Reggie "notmyproblem.gif" on this, though). If they had sold the same 211K, and the DS had sold 200K because of supply constraints, then they would have been technically correct and would indeed be "closing the gap". That would still be misleading, but not a complete lie. It's not the spin that irks me (well, it does, but in this industry it's an unavoidable reality), it's the flat-out lies, coupled with the fact that "journalists" are all too happy to copy-paste them verbatim.

 

[Arwin]

Arwin, is there anything a Sony exec would say that would make you say "Ok, they went too far this time" ?

I just did, twice. Except I don't say 'they went too far' because as far as PR goes, it's standard practice. So I'd either have to condemn the whole industry, or not raise an eyebrow.

What kind of meaningful market measure is a "monthly sales gap" (note that they don't say anywhere they are talking about a monthly sales gap) ?

It's very meaningful as it allows you to talk details in the sales and market curves. You're not talking about market-share, but you're talking about current sales trends.

That would still be misleading, but not a complete lie. It's not the spin that irks me (well, it does, but in this industry it's an unavoidable reality), it's the flat-out lies, coupled with the fact that "journalists" are all too happy to copy-paste them verbatim.

What irks me is the ease with which some people are willing to call comments like these 'flat-out lies'. They're not. They're spin, sure, but it's more a glass half-full or half-empty thing than a false-true thing.

I already said though that the second point holds - the DS being supply limited for this month, 'closing the gap' isn't that meaningful. But obviously they will pay for this when the DS's sales pick up again.

 

[inefficient]

They are not "closing the gap", the gap is increasing

The gap is closing.

Dec
360 5.33mil 85%
PS3 0.93mil 15%

Jan
360 +300k = 5.63mil 83%
PS3 +250k = 1.18mil 17%

See how that works? You actually don't need to sell more units than the competition to close the gap. Isn't math fun?


For handhelds

Dec
DS 11.44 61.6%
PSP 7.13 38.4%

Jan
DS +239k = 11.68mil 61.4%
PSP +211k = 7.34mil 38.6%

 

[Geo]

The gap is closing.

Dec
360 5.33mil 85%
PS3 0.93mil 15%

Jan
360 +300k = 5.63mil 83%
PS3 +250k = 1.18mil 17%

See how that works? You actually don't need to sell more units than the competition to close the gap. Isn't math fun?

Somehow I'm reminded of the old joke "Yeah, we'll lose money on every sale, but we'll make it up on volume!"

When math tells you that you can sell less every month and close the gap, then it's time to remember that math is actually a made up language that is supposed to reflect reality, and when there's a conflict between math and reality that math needs to give way. :smile:

 

[Arwin]

Somehow I'm reminded of the old joke "Yeah, we'll lose money on every sale, but we'll make it up on volume!"

When math tells you that you can sell less every month and close the gap, then it's time to remember that math is actually a made up language that is supposed to reflect reality, and when there's a conflict between math and reality that math needs to give way. :smile:

So, say that someone has 10% of the monthly sales of a competitor. Then the next month, he has 20% of the monthly sales of a competitor. Then the next month, it goes up to 30%. From month-to-month, it keeps going up until finally sales are up to 90% of its competitor, and they stay there.

All this time, the company has to keep his mouth shut, as no trend-watcher, investor or anyone else is going to be interested in these numbers until the company actually starts outselling the competitor, right?

Your problem, and that of many others, is that you are looking at the whole PSP vs DS issue with a preconceived notion of that it is all market domination. As long as the PSP isn't gaining on the DS in absolute units out there, it is not interesting, right?

But that's making the same kind of mistake as saying the GameCube lost the "console war battle" with the Xbox.