Famitsu: XBOX 360 global domination through 2007

[rabidrabbit]

Can you guys continue your off-topics in PM?
I mean, this is a thread about the Famitsu article after all... and who cares.

It's likely the xbox360 will dominate in total sales numbers for 2007, the PS3 will likely still be limited at supply long into 2007.

Those numbers presented in the article look very optimistic for PS3 and Wii, if anything. Considering the year long headstart the xbox360's got, it seems to assume the xb sales would slow down considerably when the other two come to market.

 

[Arwin]

I'm going to predict that Sony will be close to the 360 already after 2007 is over. Just below, equal, or just passed, but there it is. This message will probably be here still in January 2008, so you can tell me around then if I was wrong.

 

[MasterDisaster]

I'm going to predict that Sony will be close to the 360 already after 2007 is over. Just below, equal, or just passed, but there it is. This message will probably be here still in January 2008, so you can tell me around then if I was wrong.

I think that with all production problems and the possibility that the european launch can be delayed again, 11 Milions of ps3 at the end of 2007 is a very optimistic number
if you want to bet with me, I say that in hte 2008 ps3 and 360 will be on par, and in the 2009 the xbo720 will launch
hope that my and your posts will survive to see who is right

 

[3roxor]

I'm going to predict that Sony will be close to the 360 already after 2007 is over. Just below, equal, or just passed, but there it is. This message will probably be here still in January 2008, so you can tell me around then if I was wrong.

Could be, but the PS3 would have to sell about 2/1. It would be quit a coup if they do though given the PS3's price. I don't think any company in history pulled something similar off, what Sony is attempting right now. I think this is also the reason many analysts bet on the negative when it comes to the PS3. The price will probably drop come august or so.

 

[MasterDisaster]

Could be, but the PS3 would have to sell about 2/1. It would be quit a coup if they do though given the PS3's price. I don't think any company in history pulled something similar off, what Sony is attempting right now. I think this is also the reason many analysts bet on the negative when it comes to the PS3. The price will probably drop come august or so.

I don't think that doing this can be an advantade for sony:
they will have a worse loss per-console, and Microsoft will drop the price too (after Q1 2007, Xenos and Xenon will be 65nm, and the console component will be cheaper too, so if ps3 will drop from 600 to 500, we can see easly the 360 drop from 300 to 200, maybe in bundle with a good 'old' game as PGR3)

 

[Platon]

I very much doubt that he next xbox will launch already at 2009, this 4 year cycle thing for the first xbox is an exception, I don't see MS doing it again, on the contrary they would want to keep the 360 a bit longer and maybe for once make some money.

Now they do onw the IP of the hardware, can do redesigns and whatever to lower the costs, last time they didn't have the option, so they might as well ditch that money sucking black hole and beat the competition to the market and put some pressure on them at the same time.

Next time they will not need to do that. Even if they keep the 360 alive for 5 years, hell even 6, they will most probabaly launch ahead of the competition and launching a new system every 4 years will not please developers and publishers anyway...

 

[quest55720]

I don't think that doing this can be an advantade for sony:
they will have a worse loss per-console, and Microsoft will drop the price too (after Q1 2007, Xenos and Xenon will be 65nm, and the console component will be cheaper too, so if ps3 will drop from 600 to 500, we can see easly the 360 drop from 300 to 200, maybe in bundle with a good 'old' game as PGR3)

I fully expect a 360 price drop around summer 2007 most likely at E3. Fall 2007 could be very interesting with the 360 core at 199 and the premium at 299. I don't see sony dropping the price until spring/summer 2008. If they drop the price before then they are in big trouble and the PS3 is not selling out like they planned. With sony having problems making PS3s and MS being able to cut the price they have 2 chances christmass 2006 and 2007 to do damage to sony. If they don't do major damage by then it is over and they blew thier chance.

 

[fulcizombie]

At the end of 2007 MS will have a console that will ,probably,cost 199$-299$ and will be the home of the 2 biggest games in the western world(Halo and GTA*albeit GTA not exclusive but when you take into account the price advantage of MS....).

I'd say they are setting themselves very nicely for a great holiday 2007.

The big disadvantage for MS remains Japan though.I wonder if MS executives have regretted not buying squaresoft when they had the chance ,even as overpriced as squaresoft was.

 

[3roxor]

I fully expect a 360 price drop around summer 2007 most likely at E3. Fall 2007 could be very interesting with the 360 core at 199 and the premium at 299. I don't see sony dropping the price until spring/summer 2008. If they drop the price before then they are in big trouble and the PS3 is not selling out like they planned. With sony having problems making PS3s and MS being able to cut the price they have 2 chances christmass 2006 and 2007 to do damage to sony. If they don't do major damage by then it is over and they blew thier chance.

So you say that if the PS3 isn't constantly sold out from november 2006 till spring/summer 2008 it's in trouble..?? I don't know anymore about the 360 but I think you could easily pull it of the shelves even some 4 months after launch..

Also I don't see how MS can damage the PS3 comming christmas. That could only be the case if the PS3 won't be sold out because of them. (which is very doubtfull)

 

[Teasy]

How could increased investment and aggresiveness possibly be bad and scary for consumers? It's so bad, we get a better product? Hello? Investors I can understand, but consumers?

Right now its great for consumers. But what happens when Microsoft have pushed every other competitor out of the console market and decide that they want to make those 8-10 whatever billions back plus several billion in profit? How great do you think it will be as a console gamer then? That's why every effort should be made to keep the console market competetive.

 

[.Melchiah.]

IGN reported Famitsu's chief's predictions for the console race up until 2010:

http://wii.ign.com/articles/738/738886p1.html

Wii to take lead initially, then give way to PS3; 360 to dominate through 2007

 

[quest55720]

So you say that if the PS3 isn't constantly sold out from november 2006 till spring/summer 2008 it's in trouble..?? I don't know anymore about the 360 but I think you could easily pull it of the shelves even some 4 months after launch..

Also I don't see how MS can damage the PS3 comming christmas. That could only be the case if the PS3 won't be sold out because of them. (which is very doubtfull)

MS can hurt sony by selling a lot of units while they have production problems. The longer MS can maintain a lead the better the chance to wrestle way some of those PS3 exclusive games. I am inclined to believe sony will have production problems for a long time. Once those problems are fixed then they face a MS price cut and halo3 launch hype. I don't have release dates infront of me but I would guess halo3 and the new grand theft auto game will be the 2 biggest next gen games of 2007 in the USA.

 

[quest55720]

IGN reported Famitsu's chief's predictions for the console race up until 2010:

http://wii.ign.com/articles/738/738886p1.html

If his numbers are at all acurate the real winner is the DSL with a crazy 50 million units by the end of 2007. It is clear the DSL is hurting the PS2 in japan the question is will the DSL hurt the ps3 and Wii in japan? For his PS3 numbers he is simply taking sony at thier word of 1 million units a month. Until I see it I won't believe it.

 

[pc999]

Consoles have evolved beyond "the game" and are becoming an important part of the digital home. Each is staking their piece, and dare I say that only Nintendo is actually primarily concerned with profits this gen. Sony and MS both have a lot weighing on their consoles beyond console sales this generation.

I didnt read much beyond this post but I would say that all the 3 must have proffit (althought not all of them directely).

Nintendo is cleary why once this is their only bussiness. Sony had been to many times and by to long on the red so they need cash and they think the best way to do it is implementing their machine as a standard for media (or, atleast, helping setting up standards) but also to try to become the new PC. MS is in the safest position because while they also want proffit they have a prymary concern of protecting their PC market from a standard closed box platform but 1)money cant enter from one side and go out for the other (not only the losse of money but there is also a big fx on the value f the company and such) so they need to stablish the platform.

Althought I also find MS to have the hardest job because if there is a 200$, very small and economic console that can make what 90% of people do in a PC (ie, basic media/office/net, it even could do most things I do in a PC) then with time things can change fast (with the right marketing).

Sony will also have a thought job because when they did the concept base for PS3 thought that would face a last attempt of Nintendo (they should know Sun Tzu) and a unsucesseful XB2 (like XB) meaning easy time for PS3 but they did find to great contenders. They still have advantage because of brand and 100M PS2 out there.

Nintendo to me seems that if they can do more usefull no gaming aps (or channels for mail/office like...), keep the good and variety SW and with good marketing they have all they need. Like I said before Wii will be the one how will try to sell more as a no gaming console than the others.

Interesting time haed IMO.

 

[quest55720]

Right now its great for consumers. But what happens when Microsoft have pushed every other competitor out of the console market and decide that they want to make those 8-10 whatever billions back plus several billion in profit? How great do you think it will be as a console gamer then? That's why every effort should be made to keep the console market competetive.

I could not agree more that is why MS and nintendo must make a dent in sony this generation. It is clear that sony needs to take a lump or 2 this generation. If sony is allowed to get away with what they have done pre-ps3 I can only imagine what they will try and pull with the PS4.

 

[one]

If his numbers are at all acurate the real winner is the DSL with a crazy 50 million units by the end of 2007. It is clear the DSL is hurting the PS2 in japan the question is will the DSL hurt the ps3 and Wii in japan? For his PS3 numbers he is simply taking sony at thier word of 1 million units a month. Until I see it I won't believe it.

Then the Xbox 360 has to beat PS2 per-month sales in the US and other regions first.

 

[pc999]

Right now its great for consumers. But what happens when Microsoft have pushed every other competitor out of the console market and decide that they want to make those 8-10 whatever billions back plus several billion in profit? How great do you think it will be as a console gamer then? That's why every effort should be made to keep the console market competetive.

At that time that will meant there is a great window of chance to a new competitor arrives, althought I expect all 3 players to survive very well to next next gen.

 

[SPM]

I could not agree more that is why MS and nintendo must make a dent in sony this generation. It is clear that sony needs to take a lump or 2 this generation. If sony is allowed to get away with what they have done pre-ps3 I can only imagine what they will try and pull with the PS4.

Sony does not have a monopoly in any sector, therefore they have no alternative other than free competition. Microsoft on the other hand has an OS monopoly and an office suite monopoly on which they are levying a monopoly tax to pay for the subsidies on the XBox. They can do this only because there are no viable competitors in Microsoft's monopoly sectors, which means Microsoft can charge pretty well and still sell second rate products. If Microsoft gets into a monopoly position in the games market, that is what Microsoft will do in the games market. Sony would no doubt do the same if they achieved a monopoly position, but given they have no monopoly to leverage to pay for subsidies to push a product outside the norms of economics and free competition, in order to drive competitors out of business like Microsoft's economics, it is much less likely.

In other words if Microsoft stays in second or third place, that is good because there will be a competitive market, XBox owners will get get good quality games, and XBox will remain in the market regardless because Microsoft can and will take a loss indefinitely.

If Microsoft gets first place by a large margin, that will herald the end of a competitive gaming market, and XBox owners will end up losing because they will have to pay the Microsoft tax as Windows and MS Office users have to, and game quality will drop because Microsoft being a software company will try to push out third party developers as they have done/tried to do in key parts of the Windows market like Web browsers, email clients, office suites, networking, authentication services, print and file services, SQL servers, media players etc. by leveraging their control of Windows.

 

[MasterDisaster]

Sony does not have a monopoly in any sector, therefore they have no alternative other than free competition. Microsoft on the other hand has an OS monopoly .

110 Milions of ps2 out of there, and Sony don't have monopoly?
Linux + Mac + *nix system are zero in your OS world?

think twice

All I know is that sony is versus everything in the console market, and microsoft says that the ideal is to get a 360 AND a nintendo Wii (peter moore says this a lot of times)

in my ideal world the right percent are:

Microsoft Xbox360: 33.3%
Sony ps3: 33.3%
Nintendo Wii: 33.3%

Exclusive titles: NONE
all the games multi-platform

this is the only way that gamers will gain the max from competition but this is only a DREAM, the old gen numbers (110 ps - 24 x - 21 ngc) will not back with actual gen consoles, and that's GOOD

 

[Ben-Nice]

I'm not so sure MS will be dominating by the end of 2007. We will find out by the end of next year if price is the determining factor or if people just aren't that interested in the 360.

http://biz.gamedaily.com/industry/feature/?id=14095

"260K hardware units were sold in Sep-06, which is an improvement from Aug-06 (200K). However the Xbox 360's installed base is still smaller than the original Xbox's equivalent after the same number of months of sell-through. Xbox 360 sales are even more lackluster if you consider that the original was an unproven product that was trying to sell-in against the hugely popular PS2," commented Patel. "Finally we highlight that the gap between Xbox 360 and PS2 hardware sales at equivalent time periods in their lives continues to widen. In 2001, the PS2 was consistently selling-through >300K units a month, whereas the Xbox 360 has not broken 300K since its launch in November."