EA Q3 2008 Financials (Platform Sales & SKUs)

Were there any analyst questions in the conference call regarding EA's reaction to the Vivendi/Activision merger and how EA plans to focus it's counter strategy?

 

So EA expects 2008 sales parity between the PS3 and Xbox 360? That is asking a lot considering the PS3 sold only 2.558M units in NA in 2007 (we are talking GCN-level numbers there) up against MS's 2007 showing of 4.619M units (and 3.925M in 2006).

Either Sony is going to have to gain substantial momentum in NA or Microsoft is going to need be in a position to lose substantial momentum--or a combination of both.

IMO Sony pulled out all the stops at the end of 2007 with a significant price cut, back heavy exclusive releases, improved multiplatform software quality, and so forth. And yet with massive Wii shortages, near price parity with the 360, a significant BDR marketing push, and a couple great exclusives they still had poor PS3 sales.

BDR winning out will help, but that only confuses the issue with increased sales on a money losing product (where are all those vocal posters about the PS3 units breaking even at $400 at the end of 2007??) to a demographic of users who will generate low software sales.

Any ground the PS3 gains in the US needs to be targetted at gamers who buy software.

 

Well more important that what EA says is what EA does.

Lets see if they cancel or delay any PS3 ports, like some other publishers have.

Lets see if they produce PS3 games with performance parity.


One good sign I guess is that they let Criterion develop Burnout Paradise the way they wanted.

If corporate bet fully on current marketshare and platform sales, you might think they might not have given Criterion that kind of discretion

 

EA mention ps3 gaining 3.5million in europe, couple that with 2.5-3million gained in asia == parity. im expecting NA to be close (xbox360 to start off stronger + ps3 catches up in the middle of the year *if* home gets released on time )
im sure everyone agrees the xb360 had a much better game lineup than the ps3 in 2006/2007 but from this stage 2008 looks to be the reverse

 

I doubt you'll get a gain of 3.5m from Asia. I expect PS3 will do better in Japan in 08, and thus better again vs 360, and I think it's quite possible it will comfortably outsell the 360 worldwide, but not by 6 or 7m units. Half that, maybe, if things go well.

I think it will also do relatively better in NA, but I don't see it hitting parity with 360 there this year. I think that's quite an optimistic prediction on EA's part.

 

Yeah, and why do you assume that the 360's 2008 lineup is fully known, or that it'll keep selling at this rate around the world?

 

Do you really expect home to be some huge system seller? Are there millions of people just waiting for it and they'll jump on a PS3? I personally think home is just a curiosity, no doubt it will garner some interest (perhaps akin to EoJ), but I don't think home is the next big thing.

And as others have said, MS hasn't announced most of their 2008 lineup yet, GDC should have a number of announcements.

 

i doubt Sony has either. but as of right now, i think Sony has the edge for 2008 lineups.

 

Killzone2, Resistance 2 and MGS4 are usually brought up at this point but none of them have the mass market appeal to drive sales, just because they're the most hyped by the hardcore gamer audience or technology entuhsiasts.

The Game for this year is obviously GTA 4, and it's not exclusive to any platform. And even though Sony probably has a bunch of 1st party titles coming up, but their two biggest titles, Final Fantasy and Gran Turismo, will not be released this year.

I'd expect that the game lineups are pretty much comparable in the end... There's certainly not going to be an edge on either side this year that's comparable to Halo3. And all the rest of the best selling games of 2007 has been multiplatform (COD4, AC, GH3); but I'd rather say that 2008 pales a bit in comparision altogether, at least so far.

Edit: to clarify my opinion a bit further, I'd consider a game to have significance if it sells about 4-5 million copies at least. This means that I have to add Mario Galaxy to the above four; and also that MS has only the Gears sequel in the works that can have such a great effect.

 

For that reason I think it will be hard for 360 to do better in 2008.

With Blu-ray being the clear choice and Home coming, PS3 is bound to do better in 2008.

 

I think all the consoles will do better in 2008 it's just a question of "How much better" relative to their competition.

I think "home" will have a much greater impact in Europe than in NA. Simply because of the fact that the console has a much higher share relative to the 360. PS3 home is like a fax machine. It's great when people you don't know have it, but when people you know have one, it's more valuable.

 

Unless its cheaper....

 

And people still aren't going crazy for BluRay either. Movie sales still indicate that the majority of PS3 owners don't use this feature at all. It's been established several times - it's the games that matter.

I also don't see people getting excited about Home, when there's WoW and Second Life as well. The buzz is almost nonexistent... how long has it been in beta?

 

Blu-ray is still a major selling point for PS3, its practically free compared to a 360 with a HDD and Live.

 

Live is more of a selling point for gamers (even at $40 a year) than blu-ray imo.

 

We are going to see $200 BR players by summer presumably. Those will lessen the impact of a console.

 

bluray will always be a selling point for the PS3 as long as its similarly priced with stand-alones, albeit, maybe not always to the same extent. if you have the choice to spend a little less on a stand-alone that will only play blu-ray movies, or, spend a little more on a PS3 that will continuously be updated, can play video games among other things, i think more people will opt for the PS3.

 

People obviously don't care about it now, seeing as how the PS3 keeps lagging behind the X360 in the US; and it'll change very slowly as we move on...

 

Interesting Q3 observation:

PlayStation 2 went from 400 to 301,
Xbox 360 went 172 to 196,
PLAYSTATION 3 went from 41 to 102.

In other words, Xbox360 only beat its number by a bit, PS2 went back by 99 and PS3 grew by 61. PS2 sales are slowly shifting to PS3 sales.

It also shows how much potential the PS2 market still carries and raises the question where those sales will end up after PS2 disappeares from the market. I take it EA is still betting that most of it will end up on the PS3.

 

Laa-Yosh, while you may not believe GT5 and FF13 are going to come out this year that is when they are scheduled for release.

Even if they only come out in Japan it will have a small knock on effect World wide as many PS fans will see the light at the end of the tunnel with the two big hitters due. (GT5 will be a few months later in the US at the most)