E3 hardware

[babybumb]

RE6 announced for November. Pretty much confirmed now no new hardware this year.

But Nintendo is in for some big trouble with Wii U if they cant convince 3rd parties to announce the major games of 2012 for it.

The situation is similar to Sony with the PS3 but instead of your competitors having a 10M installed base they have over 120M. Pretty hard to be relevant for 3rd parties when you are under 1M and most of the launch game sales are taken by 1st party juggernaut.

 

[TheChefO]

RE6 announced for November. Pretty much confirmed now no new hardware this year.

But Nintendo is in for some big trouble with Wii U if they cant convince 3rd parties to announce the major games of 2012 for it.

The situation is similar to Sony with the PS3 but instead of your competitors having a 10M installed base they have over 120M. Pretty hard to be relevant for 3rd parties when you are under 1M and most of the launch game sales are taken by 1st party juggernaut.

Nintendo is out.

They had an opportunity to come up with something novel and unique, or to compete on hardware. They chose neither (it's not easy to come up with another Wii moment!) and this will likely be their last console. Especially with iGoliath stepping onto the dance floor.


As to the RE6 comment. I'm not seeing how that has anything to do with confirming or dismissing new hardware?

after e3 2005, companies still launched software on ps2, and GC ... Heck I think one or two still found their way on xbox too.

 

[Silent_Buddha]

I have no doubt major multiplatform releases will come to the WiiU. You have some companies already somewhat successfully doing that with current major multiplatform releases (Treyarch designed COD games, for example).

Basically, it can't be worse than releasing a port for PC. Well, assuming Nintendo doesn't botch the security of the console as they have with their past consoles.

Regards,
SB

 

[Gradthrawn]

They had an opportunity to come up with something novel and unique, or to compete on hardware. They chose neither (it's not easy to come up with another Wii moment!) and this will likely be their last console. Especially with iGoliath stepping onto the dance floor.

Didn't people say the same thing about the Wii after its announcement given the performance of the Cube? I don't fully understand the market that bought the Wii in droves. I don't understand their buying habits or what combination it takes to compel them to embrace a product as quickly and strongly as the Wii was. Because of that, I'm not so willing to discount the Wii U. Perhaps you understand that market better, but I sure don't!

 

[hoho]

Wii moved a whole lot of HW but how much software compared to others?

 

[upnorthsox]

Wii moved a whole lot of HW but how much software compared to others?

A shit ton if the developer name rhymed with Nintendo.

 

[NavNucST3]

Did they really have an overall better year? I can see a better Holidays selling season than last year?

But didn't sales take a dive with the 2007-2008 financial crisis?

As far as announcements, of course they're going to deny right up until the time they actually announce new consoles.

Timing-wise, maybe Sony will feel the pressure if Vita takes a dive and/or mobile eats up more into gaming revenues.

The PS3 had five months where they underperformed YoY.
The 360 had four months where they underperformed YoY.

Totals for both outperformed CY10:

           360           PS3
2010	6,764,089	4,333,500
2011	7,239,214	4,531,948

 

[KULTKILRZ]

Not only that but NINTENDO hasn't reveal it's whole hand!


NIN will pick up from there core demographic but if they can get core gamers from other

systems to jump over early.. I can't see Sony or MS waiting until 2014 to launch Next-Gen.

 

[wco81]

But was 2010 sales down from previous years?

What was the peak year for console sales this generation?

They should be selling more now since prices are generally lower. Over the Holidays, both systems were sold with gift cards and other kinds of promotions which discounted the value without really lowering the nominal prices of the systems.

 

[DuckThor Evil]

But was 2010 sales down from previous years?

What was the peak year for console sales this generation?

They should be selling more now since prices are generally lower. Over the Holidays, both systems were sold with gift cards and other kinds of promotions which discounted the value without really lowering the nominal prices of the systems.

Wii peaked in 2008, down each year since then. Last year was the best for 360 and PS3.

2010 vs 2009 had Wii down, PS 3 even, 360 up. 2008-2010 were pretty close for total console sales, but 2011 was worse due to large drop in Wii sales.

Highest year for the three consoles in total was in following order 2009, 2008, 2010,2011,2007.

For HD consoles the order is 2011,2010,2009,2007,2008.

 

[novcze]

I do believe Kaz Hirai is saying true. Best strategy would by announcement in first half of 2013, build hype and sell it in Q4 2013.

 

[Arwin]

Wii U game announcements will come once the platform has been properly launched with a firm releasedate etc.

 

[Persistantthug]

I do believe Kaz Hirai is saying true. Best strategy would by announcement in first half of 2013, build hype and sell it in Q4 2013.

Kaz Hirai is implying 2015 and possibly 2016

 

[Jedi2016]

Kaz Hirai is implying 2015 and possibly 2016

He also seems to be intentionally misleading the press in regards to the whole "ten year life cycle" thing. At no point in the past did this mean "no new hardware for ten years".. both PS1 and PS2 lived far beyond the introduction of new hardware. What it means is that the platform will be supported for ten years, even in the face of something new. PS2 in particular really did have around a ten year life span, with games being developed for it long after the launch of PS3. I see absolutely no reason for that to not be the case here.. that PS4 could easily come along next year, yet games would continue to be developed for PS3 for another three or four years, thus fulfilling the "ten year life span". The press, however, seems to be incredibly gullible about this, and whenever Kaz brings it up (himself referring to the end of the PS3 and not the beginning of the PS4), the press assumes "no new hardware".

As noted elsewhere, this generation has already gone on for a long time. The X360 will turn seven this year. No major console manufacturer has ever gone this long between platforms. Ever. Looking at the history of Atari, Sega, Sony, Nintendo, and Microsoft, the longest stretch between the launch of devices has been six years. That's launch, mind you, not announcement. We're already past six years for announcements on both fronts.. both MS and Sony are well overdue for new hardware. The Wii U may not be "up to snuff" in terms of technology as graphical prowess, but neither was the Wii, and at least Nintendo is doing something (the Wii will be six this year, incidentally).

I wouldn't put too much into the reports of "no announcements at E3". Do you really expect any of them to say "Yes, we're going to announce new hardware"? Nintendo actually did that last year, but only after significant leaks and rumors (to the point where the actual reveal didn't show us anything we didn't already know), and that pre-announcement announcement came barely a month before E3.

I'd give MS a 75% chance of announcing at E3, and Sony a 50% chance. Even if there's no announcement at E3, I think there's a 90+% chance of both of them announcing something this year. Based on what happened in 2005, if one of them announces, it'll almost guarantee that the other will, too. Neither can afford to do nothing while the other demonstrates whatever's coming next. It wouldn't surprise me if they both make preparations for an announcement even if they don't plan to actually do it, in the off-chance that the other one announces, they'll have something thrown together that they can demonstrate.

Despite their both saying that there will be no announcements, I think people (read: "the internet") will be universally disappointed if they actually go through with it, and don't announce.

 

[wco81]

If they really waited until 2015, they might as well not bother with the console business any more.

 

[Tap In]

For MS, by "reveal", my expectation at most for this E3 would be a teaser of things to come in the future of the ecosystem.

Not specifics, not a name, just a teaser of advancement of technology that enhances the current road map seamlessly.

then as I have anticipated for a couple years now... Product release info and details next E3 with concole release in 2013.

 

[Silent_Buddha]

He also seems to be intentionally misleading the press in regards to the whole "ten year life cycle" thing. At no point in the past did this mean "no new hardware for ten years".. both PS1 and PS2 lived far beyond the introduction of new hardware. What it means is that the platform will be supported for ten years, even in the face of something new. PS2 in particular really did have around a ten year life span, with games being developed for it long after the launch of PS3. I see absolutely no reason for that to not be the case here.. that PS4 could easily come along next year, yet games would continue to be developed for PS3 for another three or four years, thus fulfilling the "ten year life span". The press, however, seems to be incredibly gullible about this, and whenever Kaz brings it up (himself referring to the end of the PS3 and not the beginning of the PS4), the press assumes "no new hardware".

As noted elsewhere, this generation has already gone on for a long time. The X360 will turn seven this year. No major console manufacturer has ever gone this long between platforms. Ever. Looking at the history of Atari, Sega, Sony, Nintendo, and Microsoft, the longest stretch between the launch of devices has been six years. That's launch, mind you, not announcement. We're already past six years for announcements on both fronts.. both MS and Sony are well overdue for new hardware. The Wii U may not be "up to snuff" in terms of technology as graphical prowess, but neither was the Wii, and at least Nintendo is doing something (the Wii will be six this year, incidentally).

I wouldn't put too much into the reports of "no announcements at E3". Do you really expect any of them to say "Yes, we're going to announce new hardware"? Nintendo actually did that last year, but only after significant leaks and rumors (to the point where the actual reveal didn't show us anything we didn't already know), and that pre-announcement announcement came barely a month before E3.

I'd give MS a 75% chance of announcing at E3, and Sony a 50% chance. Even if there's no announcement at E3, I think there's a 90+% chance of both of them announcing something this year. Based on what happened in 2005, if one of them announces, it'll almost guarantee that the other will, too. Neither can afford to do nothing while the other demonstrates whatever's coming next. It wouldn't surprise me if they both make preparations for an announcement even if they don't plan to actually do it, in the off-chance that the other one announces, they'll have something thrown together that they can demonstrate.

Despite their both saying that there will be no announcements, I think people (read: "the internet") will be universally disappointed if they actually go through with it, and don't announce.

The PS2 and PS1 analogies aren't apt in this case. Unlike the situation with those 2 consoles, we continue to be mired in a global recession. Sony as a company continues to generate minimal to modest profits. Launching a new console requires significant investment and risk. Had PS3 not turned around after the first year, it's likely the Playstation would be a dead brand right now due to the condition of the global economy. In this economy Sony may not even have the luxury of a years worth of time to turn it around before ramping down operations of the console segment.

If the global economy significantly improves before, say 2015, and Sony's profits rise accordingly we may see a launch sooner than in 10 years. But as things stand right now, unless the consoles start to show serious declining trend (as the Wii has) then it is high unlikely for either MS or Sony to launch a console.

What does that mean in a practical sense?

If profits go on a sharp downward trend next year then 2013 becomes a likely console launch year.

Then again if profits continue to be strong with no strong downward trend for the next 5 years (highly unlikely but potentially possible) then there is unlikely to be a console launch before the year 2017...

MS could certainly afford to put out a new console if they wanted to with little to no risk to the company due to their large cash reserves and high consistent profits. But with revenue continuing to rise for the Xbox there's no need.

Sony, on the other hand would possibly be putting the entire future of the corporation at risk if they were to launch now. If the high investment in a new console doesn't pay off (especially with the recent launch of the PS Vita) that's going to be a major drag on the bottom line. Of course, if the PS Vita takes off and generates large profits, that could be reinvested into launching another console. However, if the PS3 is still showing growth the question becomes...why?

Both the PS2 and PS3 were launched when the previous console was already showing signs of continued decline. The PS3 isn't there yet.

Regards,
SB

 

[RudeCurve]

I could see MS making an announcement regarding an evolution of the X360 with backwards compatibility...X360+ with more RAM, more cores and PC like functionality.

 

[TheChefO]

The PS2 and PS1 analogies aren't apt in this case. Unlike the situation with those 2 consoles, we continue to be mired in a global recession. Sony as a company continues to generate minimal to modest profits. Launching a new console requires significant investment and risk. Had PS3 not turned around after the first year, it's likely the Playstation would be a dead brand right now due to the condition of the global economy. In this economy Sony may not even have the luxury of a years worth of time to turn it around before ramping down operations of the console segment.

If the global economy significantly improves before, say 2015, and Sony's profits rise accordingly we may see a launch sooner than in 10 years. But as things stand right now, unless the consoles start to show serious declining trend (as the Wii has) then it is high unlikely for either MS or Sony to launch a console.

What does that mean in a practical sense?

If profits go on a sharp downward trend next year then 2013 becomes a likely console launch year.

Then again if profits continue to be strong with no strong downward trend for the next 5 years (highly unlikely but potentially possible) then there is unlikely to be a console launch before the year 2017...

MS could certainly afford to put out a new console if they wanted to with little to no risk to the company due to their large cash reserves and high consistent profits. But with revenue continuing to rise for the Xbox there's no need.

Sony, on the other hand would possibly be putting the entire future of the corporation at risk if they were to launch now. If the high investment in a new console doesn't pay off (especially with the recent launch of the PS Vita) that's going to be a major drag on the bottom line. Of course, if the PS Vita takes off and generates large profits, that could be reinvested into launching another console. However, if the PS3 is still showing growth the question becomes...why?

Both the PS2 and PS3 were launched when the previous console was already showing signs of continued decline. The PS3 isn't there yet.

Regards,
SB

Recession or not, people still buy their gadgets and toys.

How are the I-gadget sales holding up in this recession? How about android devices? Tablets?

How about the xb360? PS3? In contrast, how did the cheapest "nextgen" console do this past December?

Heck even Starbucks has flown through this recession with brisk sales. I predicted the exact opposite for most of the above when the economy tanked, but ... people still want the things they want and will find a way to get them.

Recession will not be a damper on sales of what people want.
The same will hold true for xb720/ps4... as long as the hardware is desirable ...

 

[Jedi2016]

Yeah, consider how well some other gadgets are selling. I considered myself lucky to find an iPhone 4S in-store when I went looking for one (more than a month after launch), and it still cost me $300. That thing sold like hotcakes when it was released. I could maybe see the economic situation affect the purchase of say, a house, or a car, but I don't think the sales of sub-$1000 devices have really gone down that much.