E3 hardware

[dagamer]

It needs to be pointed out that in the last 15 years, just about every major console has launched in the 2nd half of the year, with Thanksgiving week being the most popular. Christmas is HUGE. I think console launches earlier in the year always turn into flops (see 3DS for a recent example) as games are never ready.

As for an announcement 1.5 years early, I think this generation of consoles has gone one the longest ever, and trying to contain leaks just becomes impossible at a certain point, especially when dev cycles are getting longer and longer. Much like announcing the original iPhone 6 months before release, Microsoft and Sony want to be the ones controlling the message, not some random blog that may not be factually correct.

 

[wco81]

Quite the opposite, every month in usa 360 and ps3 are setting records.

That's why even 2013 seems aggressive. I can believe ms would target 2013 though to try to get a 1 year jump again. And also because it would be 8 years (!) after 360.

Is that really true?

They may have had a good Holiday selling season but I thought sales during most of the year was down. Software sales too, other than blockbusters like COD/MWS. For one thing, you're seeing games prices drop much more rapidly.

Here's another "report" of the rumor.

 

[wco81]

Well, that's in line with what we were expecting? Or would an E3 announcement this year put us on the wrong side of a process technology gap?

Haven't previous consoles been launched before a significant process improvement was ready and the console makers just planned to use the process improvement to reduce costs a year or two after launch?

Seems neither Sony nor MS will wait for better process if they think the other one is going to get a jump on the other.

 

[patsu]

Sony Doesn’t Plan To Unveil A New PlayStation At Key Trade Show
http://blogs.wsj.com/digits/2012/01...ew-playstation-at-key-trade-show/?mod=WSJBlog

Sony said it does not plan on making an announcement about a new home console at this year’s E3 videogame trade show, deflating expectation that a successor to its PlayStation 3 will be on its way soon.

...

“Andy (House) is absolutely right in that we are not making any announcements at E3,” Hirai said. “I’ve always said a 10-year life cycle for PS3, and there is no reason to go away from that.”

 

[french toast]

Microsoft was unleashed the same year, and i think microsoft needs something similar if it doesnt want to lose some early market share to the wii u, also they always release them on the run up to christmas, if they announce it too far out it looses excitement, and also discourages people from buying the current hardware.

Microsoft has had the bun in the oven for along time now, they should have something heavely cooked up.

The ps3 is playing it very sly, what they could afford to do is wait another year, drive costs down and then have next years e3 all to them self, with the most powerfull hardware...
So 360, wii u this e3, sony vita and 3ds.

Next year will be the ps4 reveal.

 

[Sonic]

I hope Hirai is lying, I really do.

Leaks about hardware will come, they always do, but damned if these console manufacturers have gotten a lot better about keeping people's mouths shut. I remember there were leaks left and right back in the day, now you'd think with how upiquitous the internet is and all the social media crap, that the leaks would be coming out of the woodwork. But nope. I remember on the DCTP or Saturn Tech PAgges forum some kid said his uncle was an engineer working on the Emotion Engine in PS2, before it was unveiled. The kid was not lying, I remember the na,e and everything, and how he was obsessed with Sonic the Hedgehog.

As far as what time of year to launch, well the 4th quarter is probably the best bet. You have millions of people out there shopping for gifts, and when a new system comes out they sell mad and fast. And holidays is the best time to launch, the most momentum and easily the best throughput you will get. You can also launch your product at a premium and people will still buy it in droves, notice shortages very early in a system's launch.

 

[Rangers]

Interesting next gen roundtable including Mark Rein, Pachter.

http://www.justin.tv/tested/b/305048648

Pachter says MS specifically told him no new hardware announcement at E3.

 

[Silent_Buddha]

I hope Hirai is lying, I really do.

Leaks about hardware will come, they always do, but damned if these console manufacturers have gotten a lot better about keeping people's mouths shut.

It's also very hard to leak info if there is no info to leak. As in there are no plans to launch either X360 or PS3 follow up in the next 1-2 years.

I'm sure both companies have "what if" plans if their sales start to plummet for current gen. systems. But considering that sales are still increasing for both X360 and PS3, there is absolutely Zero business reasons for either company to launch a new system.

In fact, if I was a shareholder (I'm not), I'd be extremely angry if either MS or Sony were to launch a new system which [1] may or may not be as successful as the current systems as they are now, [2] will definitely make less money per month than the currently available systems, and [3] cause sales of current gen systems to drop as many people will stop investing in a dead system.

Want to know when MS or Sony will be launching a new system? Watch NPD and other sales tracking services. When you start seeing a sustained world wide decrease in sales for one of the consoles, then you'll know a new one might be releasing within a year of that point.

But right now? With X360 and most likely PS3 having just had the best year of sales in their respective lifetimes? Their CEO's would have to be insane to announce a new console launch at any point this year.

Regards,
SB

 

[wco81]

Did they really have an overall better year? I can see a better Holidays selling season than last year?

But didn't sales take a dive with the 2007-2008 financial crisis?

As far as announcements, of course they're going to deny right up until the time they actually announce new consoles.

Timing-wise, maybe Sony will feel the pressure if Vita takes a dive and/or mobile eats up more into gaming revenues.

 

[Silent_Buddha]

Sony were having a down year in the US up until their price reduction, but world wide, I believe they were still roughly on par with the previous year. Once they reduced the price of their consoles however, they got the expected spike in sales.

MS has been generally up the entire year with only 2 or 3 months where they didn't have YoY growth.

The entire console industry is down still, I believe, but that has more to do now with the way Nintendo is performing. Both MS and Sony are doing better now than they were pre-recession.

Regards,
SB

 

[wco81]

What about games sales? Big franchises like COD always do well but it seems games prices are dropping much faster or in many cases, you get gift cards to buy games at release now.

They didn't have to do that before the recession.

 

[patsu]

Perhaps Microsoft can show Win8 PCs, tablets and phones with Xbox features + ported and streamed games. Sony can show Playstation Suite devices with similar features. So there *could* be new hardware shown. The vendors don't have to call them nextgen consoles.

Some of these devices may work with PS360 like WiiU pad and the base WiiU unit. High end PCs should perform better than WiiU to take a little shine from Nintendo's new hardware.

Wondering what they will show for exclusive software and network features though.

 

[TheChefO]

High end PCs should perform better than WiiU to take a little shine from Nintendo's new hardware.

Anyone think MS might adopt their win7phone approach WRT PC hardware for win8? A set of base standard hardware which qualifies it as a "Windows8 Live Box" which then enables hardware makers to go above and beyond, but must meet the minimum criteria.

A pseudo console which has a base configuration for developers to design to, a semi-controlled environment, and the backing of one of the largest software makers in the world.

Reminiscent of the old 3D0 concept, but with the added functionality of a PC to justify the higher MSRP ...

Which of course can work with the live network just as xb360 does and could have a few bells and whistles to tie in with win8 tablets for gaming purposes.

Best of both worlds IMO.

The gaming "power" of a PC and the console ease of use WRT drivers and compatibility/stability.

As long as MS keeps the version-ing reasonable (1 per year at most) then I think they would have a winner on their hands.

Only downside would be the rampant piracy that has plagued PC games the past 5 years, but that could be controlled with a low level hardware lock.

Bricking a console for modding is one thing, but to have a fairly expensive PC rig bricked due to pirating should put such activities at a minimum.

This would make for an interesting e3 reveal!

/dream

 

[Shifty Geezer]

This was always a rumoured direction for MS. I'm sure I once read an MS quote saying the envisioned a future where other manufacturers would create X boxes, but of course there'd be no money in it for the IHVs.

 

[Prophecy2k]

I'm not sure microsoft would want to give away a free Win8 license in a console which they'd sell at retail for half the cost of the console box.

If anything i can see a super stripped down version of Win8 in Xbox3 that would allow some PC funtionality whilst ensuring that anyone looking to do much more than gaming, who are in the market for powerful PC HW would have to look elsewhere than the Xbox3. Otherwise institutions could buy up huge numbers of xboxes to use as servers or computing nodes for their distributed computing datacentres, and such would bring in no gaming software revenue nor Live subs, thus wouldn't benefit MS much. Plus if MS decided to sell the Xbox3 at a loss initially then they would be detrimentally affected by such.

 

[hoho]

Anyone think MS might adopt their win7phone approach WRT PC hardware for win8? A set of base standard hardware which qualifies it as a "Windows8 Live Box" which then enables hardware makers to go above and beyond, but must meet the minimum criteria.

Isn't that what the windows performance index is for?

Only downside would be the rampant piracy that has plagued PC games the past 5 years, but that could be controlled with a low level hardware lock.

Could be just me but a LOT of devs have said the impact of piracy is blown way out of proportion.

 

[TheChefO]

This was always a rumoured direction for MS. I'm sure I once read an MS quote saying the envisioned a future where other manufacturers would create X boxes, but of course there'd be no money in it for the IHVs.

The IHV's still make PC's ... PC sales are shrinking and this might be a good way to reinvigorate them.

I'm not sure microsoft would want to give away a free Win8 license in a console which they'd sell at retail for half the cost of the console box.

Who said anything about free? I'm Sure MS would charge for the OS just as they do now for retail PC's.

Your point about win8 on xb720 I agree would be a good move, assuming they either wait for the xb720 MSRP to break even with the BOM, or they charge accordingly for the OS to make up for the $ loss in hardware.

Isn't that what the windows performance index is for?

Think of it more along the lines with how devs target an iphone3, iphone4, etc.

Literally like an ever expanding console spec that could be updated once a year (or every two years) so that devs aren't stressing as hard as they are now with compatibility issues.

A big unified push like this would give devs a wider pool to aim for rather than waiting for intel to integrate graphics worth a damn and then still having to deal with compatibility issues for the plethora of oddball devices which can throw a monkey wrench into their game.

Could be just me but a LOT of devs have said the impact of piracy is blown way out of proportion.

I don't want to get too offtopic here but one quick response:

It's difficult to quantify exactly how much impact Piracy is having on the PC, but it is reasonable to say that it is more prevalent now than it ever was, and we have never seen so little direct investment into PC targeted games.

I don't think that relationship is a coincidence.

 

[Silent_Buddha]

Isn't that what the windows performance index is for?
Could be just me but a LOT of devs have said the impact of piracy is blown way out of proportion.

Not according to the most recent blurbs from CD Projekt Red, they made the Witcher series. They've been going nuts trying to figure out how to combat the rampant piracy of their games without implementing DRM. Their last attempt was to send out legal letters to people suspected of pirating their game to urge them to buy a legal copy. That backfired badly with bad publicity on the internet and so they've stopped doing it. They continue to try to think of some way to avoid using DRM, but I have a feeling their next game they will end up implementing some sort of DRM in an attempt to reduce some of the pirating of their game.

Likewise piracy being the main cause of many console to PC ports being cancelled as well as no future ports to PC for some games in the pipeline.

Smaller indie games will generally have less problems with pirating just because they aren't as widely known. And those are basically the only developers who don't think piracy is a problem.

Regards,
SB

 

[upnorthsox]

Not according to the most recent blurbs from CD Projekt Red, they made the Witcher series. They've been going nuts trying to figure out how to combat the rampant piracy of their games without implementing DRM. Their last attempt was to send out legal letters to people suspected of pirating their game to urge them to buy a legal copy. That backfired badly with bad publicity on the internet and so they've stopped doing it. They continue to try to think of some way to avoid using DRM, but I have a feeling their next game they will end up implementing some sort of DRM in an attempt to reduce some of the pirating of their game.

Likewise piracy being the main cause of many console to PC ports being cancelled as well as no future ports to PC for some games in the pipeline.

Smaller indie games will generally have less problems with pirating just because they aren't as widely known. And those are basically the only developers who don't think piracy is a problem.
Regards,
SB

Once the big guys have abandoned the platform then they'll be the next target. That may happen by a yr or 2 into the next gen. Luckily the indies will have XBL/PSN to run to but that'll put a fork in PC gaming.

 

[dobwal]

In fact, if I was a shareholder (I'm not), I'd be extremely angry if either MS or Sony were to launch a new system which [1] may or may not be as successful as the current systems as they are now, [2] will definitely make less money per month than the currently available systems, and [3] cause sales of current gen systems to drop as many people will stop investing in a dead system.

Well, I'm a shareholder and the prospect of a launching a new Xbox console doesn't upset me.

Do you know what the third best selling smartphone in the US? The iphone 3gs. The first being the iphone 4s and second being the iphone 4. All offered to allow Apple to compete throughout the price range of smartphones.

The 360 and PS3 haven't hit below the $200 price range, yet. And when they abandon the higher range to compete at lower price points, their next gen successor should do nicely in maintaining their companies presence in the upper price tiers.

Sony has always had overlapping generations, there is no reason why the 360 can't have a healthy life even in the presence of its successor. Series like Madden, NBA 2K and PES are still released on the PS2 to this day.