Acert93 said:
You will have to provide links to the 170M figure as none of the sites that track this indicate anything remotely close to that for home consoles.
By home consoles I assume you mean set top only- that would explain the rift in numbers.
And yet still LESS of a factor as DVD in the PS2/Xbox, which was the point to begin with.
By less if you mean a much larger factor then I would have to agree. Other then that I can't say that I do.
DVD players + added features above and beyond those of VHS + added quality on every TV + worked on every TV in the market + was a stable format with broad support.
A huge portion of the population watches all of those extra features too, right? In realistic terms those that do want the extra features are the same people who are the most likely to already own a HDTV and can utilize the vastly superior quality of the next gen format. As far as working on every TV- you mean with additional hardware that you had to purchase seperately.
Blu Ray/HD DVD -/+ adds fewer features - has intrusive DRM and wants online access - the core benefit is not viewable on 90% of the installed televisions - and is in the middle of a PR and movie studio war, and notably the "DVD" brand has sided on the Toshiba (HD DVD) side.
What intrusive features exactly? You do realize that BluRay is on the market- doesn't require you to go online nor does it utilize DRM ATM or any time remotely soon. As far as being in a war- Toshiba has a consortium on thier side from the last gen victor- BluRay has Hollywood, Sony and Matsushita on their side. It isn't a war, more like a small group of kids throwing a temper tantrum.
Again, the impact of BluRay will be less significant than the impact of DVD. DVD was already a market reality when the PS2 launched and was high on casual consumer demand.
Sony isn't thinking about casuals right now, and neither is MS. That will not be a factor for a few years which, not surprisingly, is roughly how long it took for DVD to become in demand by the mainstream.
Then you missed the notes at E3 where MS was claiming 50% Live attach rate with the 360
Your quote-
What could spur on a 70% growth in the market?
Blu Ray/HD DVD? No, because DVD had a much wider appeal and market position last gen so there is no reason to believe it could spur 70% growth.
Online? Consumers are already online by the millions on the PC and consoles were online last gen. With numbers like 50% adoptions rate from MS this does not seem encouraging either.
You point to online not being a driving force behind market expansion this generation and speak of the adoption rate being proof of that. Given the miniscule amount of users who were online last generation- are you saying that you were speaking of the current generations enormous on line adoption rate as evidence that it won't be a factor?
and read context and the last 6 months of discussion on the hardware costs.
I have read them. Sony is going to charge themselves $250 to fab Cell and all sorts of other such nonsense. I have read a lot about how extremely difficult it is to fab RSX in late '06 with what is one of the most sophisticated fabs in the world while nV was doing nigh exactly that a year earlier on TSMCs comparitively outdated lines. I have read how Sony building simpler chips in house is going to cost them significantly more then farming out more complex chips ala MS. I have read the discussions, quite frankly they are so astoundingly absurd they weren't worth entering into. Compare Xenos+Xenon to Cell+RSX and the 360 is at a decided disadvantage in terms of complexity(as far as yields are concerned). Sony has its own dedicated fab designed for mass production of Cell and RSX chips completed versus MS having to outsource their entire operation. Sony has the capability of assembling the consoles entirely in house, MS does not.
The PS3 is obviously more expensive to manufacturer than the 360.
Nothing outside of BluRay indicates that. In fact, overall it leans the opposite way unless you are talking about Core.
The standard HDD -- as last gen demonstrated -- is a significant hurdle to cost reduction. BluRay will drop in price but will continue being more expensive than a standard DVD drive, etc.
The HDD has the same impact on MS's premium as it does to Sony's systems. Of course, Core out of the box without any accessories isn't a viable gaming platform by any person's standards. You need to shell out at least another $40 for a very small memory card- and that doesn't hold very many save games either(had to buy one for my 360 when my first HD died).
Only hardcore Playstation fans are in denial that Sony's hardware choices will result in a pricing model that will result in higher retail console costs. It is palpably obvious the PS3 is more expensive to produce than the competing consoles -- the components and PS3 price itself clearly confirm this.
Of course it is now, BluRay is very expensive to produce ATM. If you look at the closest option MS has in the pipes, Premium with the HD-DVD add on(still lacking a lot though) then you are out the same as the high end PS3. In the long run, MS has obstacles to overcome to bring their price down that Sony doesn't have to deal with(packaging expenses, dual chips for the GPU). As far as being a Sony fan- I think they are a disgrace to the industry- electronics and gaming. They have failed in every attempt to make reliable hardware, their first party is sickly at best, they inflate their numbers with hardware designed to die, they refuse to make any sort of innovation outside of copying others and in a broader issue with Sony they have been shoveling out tird tier crap and charging huge premiums for it for the last nearly two decades. They are an inept company that I would be pleased to see fall into complete collapse. You can check my posting history on this one too, I have always felt that way. I also have nothing against MS in the least- I am a very satisfied Win/Office user- I buy their latest and greatest keyboards paying close to $100 for them and have yet to be let down in the least by them. I think that Bill Gates is an extremely admirable man- both in the business sense and particularly in the personal sense. The way I feel about Sony or MS has absolutely nothing to do with what is happening in the marketplace however.
No, as I said the minimum entry price on the two consoles is a $200 gap. $299 X360 Core and $499 PS2-20GB. This is not to deny the difference in features.
$160 for anything resembling a useable system. Core is not useable out of the box. As long as Sony is supply limited, that won't change(unless MS is forced to drop their prices).
I never said it was the only important factor or even hinted at such.
Obviously even a person with a closed head injury can understand there are many dynamics that go into this industry and market adoption. If you look closer at my posts you will see I note many of those factors. It is pretty clear you have read my post, took snippets to create strawmen, and are argueing with yourself.
Not in the least. Market analysis is what my job comes down to. It is what I do for a living(distribution- I make sure their are no hiccups between manufacturers and retail and I need to do this months in advance with purchase orders and setting up parameters in the computer to determine demand for products long before the first unit ships).
What you have failed to do is acknowledge that you are expecting a complete reversal by MS and Sony, MS are going to stop doing almost everything wrong and Sony is going to stop doing almost everything right. Why does anyone assume this is going to be the case? You think the launch price point is too high so you attempt to build up how the entire generation is going to play out based on that. That hasn't ever really worked well in the past. VCRs launched in the $1K range. DVD players did too. The PSX launched for more then the N64, the PS2 launched for more then the GC. Your assertion is that their pricing will remain high because it must- what is going to make it this way? Either BluRay has a very small premium over DVD right now(which we know is not true) or the rest of the components in the PS3 are comparable in price to the 360. That isn't me trying to take Sony's side or any other such nonsense- simply look at the hardware.
Sony may very well end up blowing this generation- if they do it will be by losing their core customers and losing the mainstream. Their launch price can very well serve to benefit them in the long term. People see a piece of electronics that is selling for $200 that used to be $500 in appears to be a better value then one that was selling for $400. Of course that is the wrong way to look at things, but that IS how they work for the typical consumer. This isn't due to laziness or stupidity- it is due to indifference and it happens to almost everyone for something.
