DFC Report: "Clear possibility that PS3 could end upthird in market share"

[Qroach]

I think it's safe to say the 360 uses the Hard Drive better in many ways than the X-Box ever did. (if you dont count homebrew) And now its almost a bulletpoint for added value if your thinking about buying a 360, average joe or not.

It's NOT a bullet point that casuals understand or care about. It means a lot to the hardcore gamers but to tell a casual, you have to pay 100 bucks more too get a hard drive that is basically needed for online, content downloads, etc over a cheaper memory card, the casuals will go for the memory card (if that's even an option). If all you want is a new console for playing offline games, why pay the extra 100 bucks? This is what I'm saying will be a problem on the PS3, since they are adding a hard drive in every unit from the start, they can't ever remove it to lower the price (like the original xbox needed to do.).

Like said above, online is getting more and more attention than it ever has, we cant base that off last gen numbers. Hard drive wont give the user just an online experience also, there are many offline features that could be used. Who knows what sony has in mind.

I didn't say the numbers won't change. Of course it has slowly increased in console gaming and more people will be online this gen compared to last. No argument there. that however still doesn't, mean that the overwhelming majority of console gamers that are not online will drastically change.

Look at the PS2. Sony says they sold over 100 million consoles. out of all those sold, how many were online? 5%? 4, or 3%? let's say 10% for arguments sake. Even if the amount of online users tripled from that number that would give you 30% of those previous PS2 users ready to go online. That still leaves 70%, a majority, that aren't going online. so for that 70% how do you justify and higher sticker price with features that both 30%= 70+ can/will use? IMO you can't. which is why I think it made sense to make the hardrive on the 360 detachable so it could be sold at a cheaper price.

 

[Gradthrawn]

Still, X360 currently has only 50% of their users connected to Live! That means half of the early adopters haven't even bothered signing up, that speaks alot to me about where the mainstream is with regards to online, it's more important now for sure, but you still have loads of people who don't care and won't be going online at all. Half the userbase is nothing to scoff at.

I look at that 50% attachment rate which MS announced some time ago and get the exact opposite feeling as you. I'm quite impressed by it, that is a huge jump, percentage wise. However, the reason I didn't bring that up, is because I think that number is largely irrelevant, and will only go down. I would like to know what the attachment rate was for the XBox in its first 6 months of release. I'm betting it was equally as high, and we all see that it dropped down to around 10% at the end of its life cycle. Secondly, as you pointed out, that number is for the early adopters, the demographic far more likely to go online than any other. Also, artificially inflating the number. I would agree, there are still loads of people who don't care about online. However, like you said, 1/2 the user base is nothing to scoff at, and that goes both ways. Point being, I think its too early to tell, the online scene is and will be much different this time around, and we've only seen what one of the major players will be offering. This time around you'll have all of the Big 3 pushing online, heavily, because its another revenue stream that they're all positioned to profit from. I feel that that will have a non-trivial impact this time around in terms of attachment rate, and the perception of value for online functionality. Some people may not know the value of online until they're told about, now they're going to have 3 companies yelling at them about it.

 

[Bad_Boy]

It's NOT a bullet point that casuals understand or care about. It means a lot to the hardcore gamers but to tell a casual, you have to pay 100 bucks more too get a hard drive that is basically needed for online, content downloads, etc over a cheaper memory card, the casuals will go for the memory card (if that's even an option).

How are free demos and downloadable content not a bullet point for casual gamers? It's not like you have to have years of gaming experience to buy a expansion pack for a pc game. Seems like your idea of a casual gamer is some one who knows nothing about gaming period. Isnt that the whole idea microsoft was trying to portray at e3 2005 with their online service, to bring more casual gamers in. If anything, free demos should help with that.

Look at the PS2. Sony says they sold over 100 million consoles. out of all those sold, how many were online? 5%? 4, or 3%? let's say 10% for arguments sake. Even if the amount of online users tripled from that number that would give you 30% of those previous PS2 users ready to go online. That still leaves 70%, a majority, that aren't going online. so for that 70% how do you justify and higher sticker price with features that both 30%= 70+ can/will use? IMO you can't. which is why I think it made sense to make the hardrive on the 360 detachable so it could be sold at a cheaper price.

Your using last gen numbers to compare next gen numbers for a online platform we really know nothing about except that it's basic service is free? Hell, ps2 didnt even launch with network capibilities.

 

[scooby_dooby]

I look at that 50% attachment rate which MS announced some time ago and get the exact opposite feeling as you. I'm quite impressed by it, that is a huge jump, percentage wise. However, the reason I didn't bring that up, is because I think that number is largely irrelevant, and will only go down. I would like to know what the attachment rate was for the XBox in its first 6 months of release. I'm betting it was equally as high, and we all see that it dropped down to around 10% at the end of its life cycle. Secondly, as you pointed out, that number is for the early adopters, the demographic far more likely to go online than any other. Also, artificially inflating the number. I would agree, there are still loads of people who don't care about online. However, like you said, 1/2 the user base is nothing to scoff at, and that goes both ways. Point being, I think its too early to tell, the online scene is and will be much different this time around, and we've only seen what one of the major players will be offering. This time around you'll have all of the Big 3 pushing online, heavily, because its another revenue stream that they're all positioned to profit from. I feel that that will have a non-trivial impact this time around in terms of attachment rate, and the perception of value for online functionality. Some people may not know the value of online until they're told about, now they're going to have 3 companies yelling at them about it.

Agreed. My only point is that there is still a huge market for a cheap gaming machine with no HDD, there will still be millions of people who will never plug their console into a LAN line, and these people won't really care if they use a HDD or a memory card.

Like you say, I expect the 50% to drop, and you really can't argue with the numbers. If the extra functionality provided by the HDD was so desireable, why are only 50% of users connecting to Live! to use it? Obviously it's simply not something that everyone cares about, and if only 50% of early adopters are using, surely the average joe will be even less. You can't argue with those numbers.

Some people seem to be under the impression that, since Sony has bundled a HDD, that it has now become some HUGE selling point that every gamer will want to have. I don't believe this is the case at all, you will still have very large portions of the userbase that do not care one bit.

 

[scooby_dooby]

Maybe with free online features the average joe will find it more appealing? Guess we will have to wait and see.

I believe these are XBOX Silver numbers, which is free and offers everything you're talking about, demo's, music video's, trailers...still only 50% are taking advantage.

 

[Qroach]

How are free demos and downloadable content not a bullet point for casual gamers? It's not like you have to have years of gaming experience to buy a expansion pack for a pc game. Seems like your idea of a casual gamer is some one who knows nothing about gaming period. Isnt that the whole idea microsoft was trying to portray at e3 2005 with their online service, to bring more casual gamers in. If anything, free demos should help with that.

First i'm not talking about PC's and PC gaming. Second, the casuals don't play online. It's as simpe as that. They might if someone set things up for them, but they won't do it without help. All you have to do is look at the small percentage of gamers that played online this gen and if you want triple those numbers. it's still going to be a small percentage no matter how it's spun or marketed.

Your using last gen numbers to compare next gen numbers for a online platform we really know nothing about except that it's basic service is free? Hell, ps2 didnt even launch with network capibilities.

I'm obviously extrapolating. I think saying online gamer numbers x3 from last gen is very generous. I'm starting to think you don't understand my point in the argument. With regards to online, It doesn't matter if the service is free. You still need:

1. online + broadband to make the downloads useful

Things do change from generation to generation, but something like online console gaming isn't going to make a drastic difference to the majority of game purchasing plublic.

 

[Gradthrawn]

Like you say, I expect the 50% to drop, and you really can't argue with the numbers. If the extra functionality provided by the HDD was so desireable, why are only 50% of users connecting to Live! to use it? Obviously it's simply not something that everyone cares about, and if only 50% of early adopters are using, surely the average joe will be even less. You can't argue with those numbers.

Some people seem to be under the impression that, since Sony has bundled a HDD, that it has now become some HUGE selling point that every gamer will want to have. I don't believe this is the case at all, you will still have very large portions of the userbase that do not care one bit

There is one argument against the numbers. Just because someone doesn't use a feature, that doesn't mean they won't perceive some value in it, or that said feature isn't marketable to them for the same reason. Ever bought product A over product B, because product A had all of the features of B plus some extra feature(s) that you didn't plan on using, but thought it might be "nice" to have? I think online could fall squarely into that category. X% of users may never go online, but that doesn't mean that those same users didn't/don't see the value in having the feature, or weren't attracted to the product because of that feature. That's not to say they do, either, as we've seen with the sales of the PS2 vs the XBox (the Box offering online + an HDD). But, it something to consider, and as stated before things are different now. It adds another variable into the equation of next-gen's future online attachment rate.

To your last statement, I would agree that the HDD is not suddenly some feature every user will want to have or even care about.

However, IF that does happen, you have to hand it to Sony's PR and Marketing.

 

[Bad_Boy]

First i'm not talking about PC's and PC gaming. Second, the casuals don't play online. It's as simpe as that. They might if someone set things up for them, but they won't do it without help. All you have to do is look at the small percentage of gamers that played online this gen and if you want triple those numbers. it's still going to be a small percentage no matter how it's spun or marketed.

I was giving an example, pc expansion pack :: xbox game patch/download. Casual gamers dont play online? lol, I know plenty of girls, friends, and family members who dont normally play games play halo online all the time. Hell, my english professor last year admitted to playing WoW. Where do you get this "triple" number from? Your forgetting ps2 never launched with any online capibilities basically splicing any casual gamers chance of having the feature out of the box, your forgetting dialup is starting to be a thing of the past since the ps2/xbox launch, your forgetting that all 3 next/new gen consoles will have some sort of online plan that will appeal to a variety of gamers. With ps3 having a free basic service why the hell wouldnt anyone want to atleast try it and see what it's like unless they did not have a internet connection? Hell, even the psp and DS have proven that people do like the choice of online gaming. Its the first time ever where companies have cared enough to put those feature in handhelds. Handheld games with online capibilities, whod a thunk it.

I think you are really underestimating the potential of the online market appealing to the average joe. Your taking numbers from last gen and multiplying a arbitrary number of what you expect to happen? How about we just wait and see what happens instead of raising so much speculation?

 

[scooby_dooby]

With ps3 having a free basic service why the hell wouldnt anyone want to atleast try it and see what it's like unless they did not have a internet connection?

I dunno, ask the 2million 360 owners who still haven't signed into XBox Live.

I can think of few reason of the top of my head. A person who:
- can't be bothered with the networking involved
- is only interested in playing single player games
- is not interested in playing game demo's
- has no time to take advantage of these extra features, uses any available free time simply to play games
- does not have hi-speed internet

 

[Bad_Boy]

I dunno, ask the 2million 360 owners who still haven't signed into XBox Live

Xbox live is free?

 

[Shifty Geezer]

Casual gamers dont play online? lol, I know plenty of girls, friends, and family members who dont normally play games play halo online all the time.

Given the numbers outside of personal experience, I think it's safe to say casuals don't do online gaming. 10% of XB owners played Live! online. 6% of PS2 owners. DS seems to be very advanced with maybe as much as 20% of users playing online. Even if all these people are 'casuals', it represents but a small portion of the full 'casual' user base. Chances are most of these are 'hardcore' or enthusiast players.

If you extend the concept of online gaming to things like webgames, MSN Messenger games, and other PC titles, you'd get a significant increase in the proportion of users gaming online, but that's not clearly relevant to online console gaming - playing Solitaire against a friend on Messenger is no indicator of an interest in playing Halo or SOCOM online on a console.

 

[Bad_Boy]

I guess I am just more optimistic on the whole situation, for both 360, PS3, and Wii. And I'll end my rants at that.
Really no point to go on throwing out numbers of what we think will happen next gen without 2 of the 3 consoles even available yet.

 

[scooby_dooby]

Xbox live is free?

Yes the basic service is free.

 

[Bad_Boy]

Yes the basic service is free.

w/ online gameplay?

 

[scooby_dooby]

Ever xbox360 comes with 30 days of free online play, so there goes that argument. Why didn't they try it out!? It was free....

All these features that are supposedly making a HDD so desireable are available permanently for free through XBLive Silver, and every XBOX live accout gets a free 30day gold membership, by MS best estimates, they hope for 50% by next E3.

2million+ users...why haven't they tried it out? There's something like 30 demos available, tons of trailers, some sweet 720p music video's, free trial period, why aren't they online?? The answer is simple, online is not for everyone, lots of people are not interested it's really that simple.

 

[Bad_Boy]

I dont think a free trial is the same thing we are talking about. Many people take advantage of free-trials, but soon as the trial ends, they stop for whatever random reasons. I'm guilty of it myself. But dont you think if it was completely free for as long as you wish there would be more people using it? Not saying 5 dollars a month is expensive, not one bit, but you gotta consider the other side. A side with no price at all.

and to mention what you are talking about, id say 50% is a pretty impressive number considering where it was last gen. It would definately show people are interested.

 

[Crossbar]

Yes. You can put in any old 2.5" HDD into any PS3.

Is that true? I thought I read somewhere the PS3 would use a SATA drive.

EDIT: Not a lot of old portable SATA drives around.

 

[AlNom]

The answer is simple, online is not for everyone, lots of people are not interested it's really that simple.

Aye.

Also, not everyone has an "ideal" setup for hooking up the console to an internet connection. From my experience, routers etc are generally not anywhere close to the household TV(s), and the thought of running a super long cable just does not seem to sit well. Even though PC monitors are supported, one is still looking at around $50 for the VGA cable just to have it close to a PC setup where the cable modem etc is generally situated.

And then there's justifying spending over $130 just for a wireless adapter...

*prices in CDN

 

[Shifty Geezer]

Is that true? I thought I read somewhere the PS3 would use a SATA drive.

You're right. Last I heard, a while back, I was shocked to hear PS3's HDD wasn't SATA. But it's confuirmed on the official website. So any old SATA 2.5" HDD is useable.

EDIT: Not a lot of old portable SATA drives around.

Doesn't stop the HDD being upgradeable Though at the moment it looks like 60GB SATA is pretty much the largest 2.5" drive available. Anyone know what developments are happening on this front? Man, Sony wanted to go with 3.5"!

 

[one]

Though at the moment it looks like 60GB SATA is pretty much the largest 2.5" drive available. Anyone know what developments are happening on this front?

You mean 160GB? Perpendicular recording drives are coming...

http://www.seagate.com/products/notebook/momentus.html

The Seagate Momentus hard drive family offers the perfect combination of performance and value. Featuring low power consumption and high shock tolerance, Momentus 2.5-inch hard drives offer a range of spin speeds to meet the needs of a variety of applications. Choose from capacities of 40GB to 160GB.