DFC Report: "Clear possibility that PS3 could end upthird in market share"

[Titanio]

what I meant was that you are correct in the example of GC wrt other factors taking precedent.

My point was that there are more things that are equal between the contenders (PS3, X360) in public wants/needs this generation (compared to your GC example). the machines are more equal in their general game playing capacity and the number and types of games and experiences that they will both be offering. (BluRay movies aside)

So a lot of the 'factors' that you refer to are mitigated this time around, making price more of a factor. IMO :smile:

I would not be as confident making as many of the assertions as you do at this point.

For example this:

"the machines are more equal in their general game playing capacity"

was actually a disadvantage for PS2 last time around v GC or Xbox, a disadvantage PS3 will not have to bear.

and this:

"the number and types of games and experiences that they will both be offering. "

I do not think is true. I mentioned it before in another thread, but as much as some forward the notion that the libraries on the two systems are equivalent, they are not. At last count, half or more of the PS3 library is exclusive to it, and it still enjoys the strongly exclusive eastern support of the PS2. In that regard, I do not see how much has changed - last time around, most western games were multiplatform, with PS2 having many eastern exclusives - and thusly a much more 'global' and diverse catalog, which really was its primary strength. PS3 seems to be carrying that mantle.

This is just my perspective right now, of course. But that's all I can really address.

 

[pc999]

Why not? Because of the sentence you ignored:

"that are easily available with the hardware they already own"

If they don't already own the hardware, they aren't going to play games that are made for it. They don't buy hardware to play games on, they play games on hardware that they purchased for other reasons.

I am qite sure I know many people tht only go to the net with their PC and if they got the change to chose between a 250$ (and very easy, small...) Wii or a PC, they would prefer a Wii.

The same for DVDs many may chose a (even if pricier) Wii based on size and look alone.

For educational stuff a Wii is also much cheaper.

There is many other features (at least rumured) that are cheap to implement (eg VoIP) that an indeed give many reasons to buy a Wii. If you do proffit with the console then that is a reason to sell to those alone, but it also give you a way o get many new gamers (like the one this survey talks). PS3 cant make that and loss on relative marketing even if not in raw numbers.

We saw the same happening with the DS (many new gamers) that bought the HW just to play (and in this case they dont even had more reasons to buy than games).

 

[Tap In]

Well I must admit I'm speaking from a purely Western perspective.

In honesty, I have no interest in Eastern game types at all and therefore it is easy for me to overlook/disount their contribution. So on a global scale, yes there will be other experiences on PS3 that some will prefer. Let's not discount 360's exclusives and a mature Xbox Live either.

I realize it's too soon to say that the games will not be noticably different but so far -and with 512 Ram and similarly powered GPUs and many cross-platform games- I comfortably predict that there will be no noticable difference to the (over 20 million mark) casual consumers.

From a western standpoint and from observing the behavior of consumer in the US, I feel safe in predicting some behaviors with regard to the $199 price point, regardless of the games. There are many in NA that prefer the Japanese style games more and will certainly choose PS3 for it alone.

so yes there are other factors present but on the whole and within the mass market of consumers (again over 20M mark) they will not be as much of a factor as a similar experience for a lower price.

 

[Dave Baumann]

Also (as an actual response now to your post, not an explanation) I think you somewhat underestimate the power of "theoretical value". Many PC buyers "future-proof" their systems, I hope that point will be allowed to me without statistical proof. In rational terms, at a console launch there are two or three games that interest you. That can't be worth 400$ either, and yet people bought 360s at launch, for 400$, or even more when being ripped of on eBay and/or with bundles.

Consoles are bought not least because of the expectation of games that will come later. The "knowledge" of hardware capability is important to form these expectations. My point would basically be that higher expectations can increase sales. This weighs against the higer price of course. In the case of the PS3, in light of the direct competition, I think the price is fine.

Curious; in your opinion, how does this fit in with the situation last time where, from the technical standpoint, MS must have been considered the "theoretical value" leaders in your view?

 

[Tap In]

I watched a show on HBO the other day about Hollywood and blockbusters and they interviewed many producers as to what factors lead to a successful movie.

One old timer said (many years ago actually) when it comes to predicting what will 'hit' within the worldwide public.... "Nobody knows anything".

I think this applies here. Sony Ms Nintendo and its Devs can all try to plan and present the best opportunity for hits on their machine that will sell it through the roof but as for what will click with the market and what won't?

Nobody knows anything.

 

[Dave Baumann]

IMO, EA do.

 

[Tap In]

IMO, EA do.

yes you may be right, games are more static than movies and EA has done well to capitalize on that. they operate most cloesly to a movie studio in that regard IMO.

They do a lot of sequels but also take some chances and they hedge their bets against other projects.

 

[Dave Baumann]

They also have the most to lose from a hardware monopoly (or even distinctly different markets); its in their interests not to see that happen.

 

[Tap In]

They also have the most to lose from a hardware monopoly (or even distinctly different markets); its in their interests not to see that happen.

I was thinking that too.

That's one reason why I think MS instantly changed the dynamics this gen when they launched early and got EA's complete support out of the gate.

It may be like a perfect storm for EA this gen depending on the costs to develop cross-platform.

 

[Rolf N]

Curious; in your opinion, how does this fit in with the situation last time where, from the technical standpoint, MS must have been considered the "theoretical value" leaders in your view?

I think I already answered that, but it may have been in a different thread.
The XBox, as I remember it, was marketted (here) mainly as the machine with the "better tech" (and, as was pointed out to me later, the machine that played Halo). Yes, I believe that worked for Microsoft as well, it helped them a great deal. They started with nothing and achieved a respectable double-digit market share after all. That IMO can't have happened just because the product is green and plays Halo and DVDs.

I'm tempted to say it must have been the "better tech" that single-handedly achieved all that because the remaining aspects of the XBox just weren't competitive with the PS2. It was the larger, heavier, noisier machine, it never had as many games to choose from, the price was matched to the PS2 ... I personally think it has a better controller than the PS2, okay ... but what else, besides the "better tech", was there that made the XBox more desireable than the PS2?

American patriotism?

(vs the Gamecube it most likely wins the games library aspect and [IMO] loses on the controller aspect)

 

[Acert93]

but what else, besides the "better tech", was there that made the XBox more desireable than the PS2?

This is where Playstation fans pigeonhold MS unfairly. I wont get into all the various avenues, but here are 2 right off the top of my head:

1. Xbox Live. Robust features, quality online experience, ease of use, and vast software support clearly set it apart.

2. A strong flow of PC titles (in the 12 months preceding the 360 launch the Xbox1 say Doom 3, Half-Life 2, Far Cry, Pirates, Chronicles of Riddick, etc).

There are other factors, but those two alone were driving forces--which MS has continued to leverage into this next gen.

And any ground MS may have given up (tech superiority is not necessarily a huge mainstream selling point as software drives sales and marketshare) is clearly countered by this:

MS entered the market an unknown. Contrasting MS's dev support now with 5 years ago is absolutely amazing. They went from, "Oh great, f'n M$ is trying to get their browser into console games" to being recognized as a real gaming company and one of the 4 most important companies in the industry (next to Sony, EA, and Nintendo). This could not be said 5 years ago. And not only has MS not only made significant headway in developer support they continue to build an internal library of important IPs. And it is very hard to underestimate the impact of Halo 3 and the Halo movie arriving in 2007. Halo is one of the top 3 franchises in the US (Madden and GTA being the others) and MS has the ability for oustanding exposure.

Whether or not the market angle or library of support meets individual needs ot a case by case basis, but in general there is no denying that MS has made themselves a major player in the market and has a software portfolio that appeals to certain consumers.

None of these companies is going to win over every customer. That is why we are seeing something like the Wii. At the end of the day though they each offer a similar but also unique experience.

The idea ANY of them can be shoehorned into a 1 trick poney with one sales angle falls pretty flat. And sales will ultimately reflex dozens of different factors with various weights of emphasis.

 

[Rolf N]

As long as XB360 have advantage of units on the market the argument run. For example just having the duble it still make a big market to explore and make a multiplatform game. The bigest problem is that it is a vicious circle.

Or a self-fulfilling prophecy.
Atm it's no surprise that the 360 has the advantage of units against the PS3. But the lead isn't that big, certainly not as big as Microsoft would have wanted -- the desire to build up that lead is why they launched a year "too early" after all.

Anyway I said 20M just because IIRC MS said they expect to sell 10M within the first year, after that (begining of 07) will come price cuts (unless it keep seling very well) and the big games (or at least is expected) so I make a estimation for twice which seems completely probably to me. Althought I probably should have put a higer number of PS3.

The 10M units 'til PS3 launches is an old and optimistic "target" of Microsoft and is outdated. IIRC it was the plan at X05, which was months before the launch, but we now have actual sales data and they're simply not going to make it.

This recent thread has some links to sales data.

edit:
Or use this: http://videogamecharts.com/page3.html

 

[Tap In]

The 10M units 'til PS3 launches is an old and optimistic "target" of Microsoft and is outdated. IIRC it was the plan at X05, which was months before the launch

I believe you are mistaken.

The 10 mil/PS3 comment was a hopeful comment made at E3 06 after it was known that PS3 would not launch until Mid November 06.

Their original comments were to have 8-10 mil by the end of 2006 (regardless of when PS3 launched) iirc.

also, I certainly would not rule anything out based on sales data up until now (shortages, worst time of year for sales in general).

holiday 06, with no doubt shortages of PS3's, could be HUGE sales months.

 

[Qroach]

I don't think zeckensack realizes that MS has treated shipped as sold (the same way sony doe and has). They revised the shipped numbers upwards not that long ago. Everything in the channel will sell by the end of the year, and they will have the ability to produce far more units for this holiday.

 

[Ooh-videogames]

How are they supposed to know what the content and gameplay are like if they haven't picked up the controller yet? Remember, these are NON-gamers we are talking about here. They don't read gaming sites, they don't follow gaming news, they don't read game reviews, they don't hold gaming conversations with their friends, they don't play games.

So how are they supposed to know what the content and gameplay are like?

They won't, will they?


So no, content and gamplay won't get a NON-gamer to pick up the controller because those factors are unkown to them until after they've picked up the controller and played the game.

So what will get them to pick up the controller? What's left?

The underlying difference being, wiimote doesn't present itself as being a major deterrent to curiousity with 47 buttons.

 

[Tap In]

I don't think zeckensack realizes that MS has treated shipped as sold (the same way sony does and has). They revised the shipped numbers upwards not that long ago. Everything in the channel will sell by the end of the year, and they will have the ability to produce far more units for this holiday.

yes, good point

 

[Titanio]

I don't think zeckensack realizes that MS has treated shipped as sold (the same way sony doe and has).

I think for MS to ship 10m by the time PS3 launches, however, would require a significantly larger gap between shipped and sold than has ever typically been maintained with PS2 or PS1 (proportionally). There'd have to be a large excess of shipped systems, advance shipments for some months probably. In fact, I'd wonder where they'd all go..maybe they'd put them in warehouses, and just count them as shipped as soon as they leave the assembly plant (versus counting shipments direct to retailers). The way things look at the moment, if they push to have 10m shipped, they'd be purely doing that for reasons of vanity rather than because of what was happening at retail.

 

[Tap In]

I think for MS to ship 10m by the time PS3 launches, however, would require a significantly larger gap between shipped and sold than has ever typically been maintained with PS2 or PS1 (proportionally). There'd have to be a large excess of shipped systems, advance shipments for some months probably. In fact, I'd wonder where they'd all go..maybe they'd put them in warehouses, and just count them as shipped as soon as they leave the assembly plant (versus counting shipments direct to retailers). The way things look at the moment, if they push to have 10m shipped, they'd be purely doing that for reasons of vanity rather than because of what was happening at retail.

wow


you really think it's going to do that poorly this holiday?

 

[Titanio]

wow


you really think it's going to do that poorly this holiday?

Conversely, you think they'll sell through 10m by PS3 launch? They've sold something like 3-3.5m to date, I believe. That'd be at least 6m up to an including Nov (which is being generous given PS3's launch is in early Nov), or 1m per month. Currently they're likely running 1/3 to 1/2 of that rate, and things aren't going to be much better for the rest of the summer. So that'd place an enormous responsibility on the last couple of months til Nov to see anything near that target reached. If they do ship that number by early Nov, they'll be doing so to fill demand right into the first couple of months of next year at least. To put it another way, when do you think 10m will actually be sold by, versus shipped? I very much doubt it'll happen this year. It'll happen in the first few months of 07.

 

[Tap In]

well first of all I'm looking end of year (including all the Holiday sales) not PS3 November.

As for when they'll actually sell 10mil, I would say Feb/March 07 latest.

But... they could easily SELL 5-6 million more through December. Having them on the shelf will be key.

but back to my question

You (from your post above) must think that they won't sell that many through December? With the hype for next gen at a fever pitch with PS3 launching and all sold out, GoW, Forza and Madden (and several other good titles maybe Lost Planet) on the shelf?

I disagree. :smile:


edit: wrong dates