Decent 360/PS3 article in EDN's "Voice of the Engineer"

[Farid]

Isn't the X360 a 3.5" Sata HDD inside a rack made for the console?
The HDD itself should have no physical differences with internal models.

Also, the cost of 1 platter HDDs are considered as invariable throught time. Unlike semiconductors the prices can't go down. On the other hand, you can can get more data space storage per cm² for the same price.

 

[AlphaWolf]

Isn't the X360 a 3.5" Sata HDD inside a rack made for the console?
The HDD itself should have no physical differences with internal models.

Also, the cost of 1 platter HDDs are considered as invariable throught time. Unlike semiconductors the prices can't go down. On the other hand, dou can can get more data space storage per cm² for the same price.

Doesn't it have to be a 2.5 inch drive? The console itself is only 3.5 inches wide.

 

[Bobbler]

It should be a 2.5inch SATA drive (laptop style). I believe 4500rpm as well (5400rpm at best). It's a modified revision (different firmware flash?) of one of Seagates newer 2.5inch product lines.

 

[scooby_dooby]

Isn't the X360 a 3.5" Sata HDD inside a rack made for the console?
The HDD itself should have no physical differences with internal models.

Also, the cost of 1 platter HDDs are considered as invariable throught time. Unlike semiconductors the prices can't go down. On the other hand, dou can can get more data space storage per cm² for the same price.

So why do top-end, or enw drives always start out expensive, then drop in price? R&D I suppose right?

Looks at the seagate momentus , 40GB external 2.5" HDD. Price is $100-130 for 40gb
http://www.shopbot.com.au/p-1806-44354.html

So that's $2-$3/gb which is extremely high.

I can get a SATA internal 40GB HDD for ~$60 which is only $1.50/mb.

As far as I can see there's every reason to expect the price of the external SATA 2.5" drives is still on the highside, and will decline over the next couple years.

So the 25/15 number sounds perfectly reasonable, it's predicting roughly a 40% drop in price, which is also what I would expect for external sata drives over the next year or two.

 

[Carl B]

Isn't the 360 drive an 'internal' drive though, just in a proprietary 'external' casing?

Whatever the case, there is definitely a 'barrier' with hard drives that is very hard to penetrate due to the mechanical nature of the drives. On Newegg for example you can get a 40GB drive for ~$40, a 80GB drive for ~$50, and a 160GB drive for ~$75. So a little extra cash can definitely go a long way in getting you more drive when you're there bouncing off of the 'mechanical price barrier' anyway.

There's a barrier for the 360 drive as well - it's just we don't know what that barrier really is. Is it $25? Is it $15? Whatever the case, it obviously isn't costing MS or anyone else $100 to source that thing.

 

[Nite_Hawk]

As other people have mentioned here, disk prices don't really drop below a certain threshold. The simplest drive you can make is a single sided single platter drive. From there, all you can really do is increase platter density which just makes the disk larger, but not cheaper.

So for example, if two years ago you needed 5 40gb platters to make a 200GB drive, and now you only need 2 100GB platters, the drive can be made significantly cheaper. There are less materials going into it, you don't need as strong of a motor to spin the disc, the amount of heat generated decreases so your yields go up and failure rates go down, etc etc.

If the drive is already a single single-sided platter though, there's no where to go except to utilize larger platter densities and make bigger drives for the same price. Even assuming that MS can build these drives for $25 (which I'm somewhat sceptical of in the first place!), they don't really have any room to decrease manufacturing costs. As others have said, it may even be that costs will go up as manufacturers phase out the parts that go into this specific drive.

Nite_Hawk

 

[scooby_dooby]

As other people have mentioned here, disk prices don't really drop below a certain threshold.

So why do you assume that these external 2.5" Sata HDD have reached this 'threshhold'?

It obvious when looking at the market that these are some of the most expensive harddrives on the market, so they haven't reached that point where the price bottoms out.

You guys act as if HDD's immediately launch at the lowest pricepoint in their life. In reality, newer types of HDD's are always more expensive/GB than conventional HDD's, and they slowly drop with time, until they bottom out. External 2.5" drives have not bottomed out at all.

 

[Bobbler]

It's an internal 2.5inch drive (same types that go inside laptops). The "external" part is tacked on by MS in the form of a plastic protective casing so it can safely fit on top of the X360 (instead of inside, like PS3s(?) or PS2s did). It's likely that its already as cheap as its going to get to manufacture, but what MS is paying may not be the cheapest that Seagate will charge (Seagate may be charging a small premium at the moment? the price for seagate is likely already at the bottom). It's hard to say, but HDDs of this type (1 platter, 2.5inch internal) are not going to go down in manufacturing cost by an appreciable amount.

With that said, I think its really the least of their concerns (as they already know it), as there are bigger things that will go down in price that they can gain the cost advantage from. But, there are more than a few places that are questionable in the BOM costs that they provide -- it's likely that they aren't _too_ far off though (with the exception of BR/Cell where there are some unknowns there, the people that know likely can't tell us -- Cell especially, taking into account being able to use a rather large chunk of the "bad" ones, in theory at least).

 

[jpr27]

I guess Im a little more suprised by the BR drive on the PS3 costing around the same as a standard DVD drive on the 360 by the third yr. Did I read that correctly? I think Sony will be making these as well but do you guys really think that DVD drives wont be cheaper then the BR over the life of the systems even if there is cap on how low they can go? (parts, manufacturing costs etc.)

 

[scooby_dooby]

but what MS is paying may not be the cheapest that Seagate will charge (Seagate may be charging a small premium at the moment? the price for seagate is likely already at the bottom).

That's what I'm getting at. I'm not saying manufacturing costs will reduce, just that MS is probably paying some markup right now(judging by the price of these drives there is a premium being charged), and that will reduce over the next couple years

 

[Farid]

I just did check, the HDD in the X360 is a 2.5" Seagate LD25:
http://www.seagate.com/docs/pdf/marketing/PO-LD25.pdf

Its price is unrelated to the fact that MS decided to put it in a detachable rack. The thing is an internal 2.5" HDD.

http://www.shopbot.com.au/p-1806-44354.html

Shopbot.com.au? Is that in Australian dollars?

BTW, retail prices cannot be compared directly to the price a console manufacturer can obtain when dealing directly with the fabricant.
Actually in this case it was the HDD manufacturers who proposed the deals to MS. MS choosed the best deal.

 

[Nite_Hawk]

That's what I'm getting at. I'm not saying manufacturing costs will reduce, just that MS is probably paying some markup right now(judging by the price of these drives there is a premium being charged), and that will reduce over the next couple years

I doubt that seagate is making a very significant premium on these drives. Certainly not enough that they could drop it by 40% and still be making a decent profit. There are too many other drive manufacturers that would undercut them.

Nite_Hawk

 

[scooby_dooby]

BTW, retail prices cannot be compared directly to the price a console manufacturer can obtain when dealing directly with the fabricant.

Of course they can't. Which is why MS can get the drive for $25 and not $80-100 that everyone else has to pay.

What retail prices can do is give us an idea of the current pricepoints, and current premium's being charged. The average costs of a HDD is usually around $1-$1.50/GB, these 2.5" HDD's are well above that, if you look them up, most are in te range of $2-$3/gb, meaning the manufacturers ARE charging premiums on them right now.

 

[Guden Oden]

Except this HDD is fairly new technlogy so it wil scale down.

Bull. It's at most a new model of drive - that's not the same as saying there's new tech in it. You might as well just say this drive's nothing more than an adoption of current 3.5" desktop drive tech!

3.5" externall HDD's are fairly new

As others have already pointed out, it's not a 3.5" drive, and external casings for HDDs, wether 3.5 or 2.5 inch platter diameter.

this particular HDD is brand new to seagate's lineup.

The box Anandtech ripped apart had a samsung drive. I'm not sure there are seagates in all 360s.

 

[scooby_dooby]

It's fairly new to the MARKET which is why they are overpriced at the moment, and why MS is probably paying more/GB than they would with a standard internal HDD.

In a few years the price will drop to match the older internal HDD's which are so cheap today.

 

[Shifty Geezer]

It's fairly new to the MARKET which is why they are overpriced at the moment, and why MS is probably paying more/GB than they would with a standard internal HDD.

What about this drive being new is going to cause elevation of it's price? If it can be made by the same factories that produced all the other HDDs before it, what affect would the fact it's a new have? The only difference between this and any other 20 GB HDD single platter HD (I assume it's single platter) Seagate have made is a few select components like drive controller and cache, all off-the-shelf conponents for Seagate. Unless they've got some new clever technology why would this drive cost more to produce an older style 20 GB single platter drive?

 

[scooby_dooby]

What about this drive being new is going to cause elevation of it's price?

I dunno, ask seagate, samsung, or one of the other 10 manufacturers who are charging $100+ for 40GB hdd's, ask them why they are more expensive.

 

[a688]

What about this drive being new is going to cause elevation of it's price? If it can be made by the same factories that produced all the other HDDs before it, what affect would the fact it's a new have? The only difference between this and any other 20 GB HDD single platter HD (I assume it's single platter) Seagate have made is a few select components like drive controller and cache, all off-the-shelf conponents for Seagate. Unless they've got some new clever technology why would this drive cost more to produce an older style 20 GB single platter drive?

I don't think scooby_dooby understands that it costs more to put that same stuff (controller, read arms, etc) in a smaller space. The HDD market is very different from the semiconductor market and prices do not get much lower when you are already buying the cheapest drive possible because of high set costs associated with any drives of any capacity.

PS: There is no such thing as an external hard drive. Its just a regular hard drive put in a case.

 

[scooby_dooby]

I don't think scooby_dooby understands that it costs more to put that same stuff (controller, read arms, etc) in a smaller space. The HDD market is very different from the semiconductor market and prices do not get much lower when you are already buying the cheapest drive possible because of high set costs associated with any drives of any capacity.

PS: There is no such thing as an external hard drive. Its just a regular hard drive put in a case.

Ok. So why have 300gb HDD's droped sp drastically in price over the last couple years?

How come, every new type of HDD (external standalone units, 2.5" laptop units, etc) starts out expensive when they first launche then drop in price?

According to you guys, a new type of HDD launches at a set price, and never ever drops. It has an absolutely flat pricing curve, from my experience buying parts for my PC's, that's just plain false. They do start out at a premium, and drop over the course of a few years...

 

[Bobbler]

Often those new types of HDDs are using multiple platters. They go down in price to manufacture as they reduce the platters (increasing the data density per platter). And the market just dictates that the old stuff should be cheaper than the new stuff -- a 150gb drive and a 250gb drive may be the exact same price to manufacture for some companies, but the 250 will have a premium.

The 20gb drives are already using only 1 platter, so they can't really go down in price. It's likely that Seagate is charging some sort of premium at the moment (but probably not much, since MS probably went with the cheapest provider), but we're talking peanuts. Even assuming the ML sheet is right (which is a dangerou assumption), we're still only talking about an item that makes up a small percentage of the total.

Regardless, doesn't matter so much, as either way it goes it isn't going to affect the consumer. Sony, Nintendo, and MS all know how much they can expect to shell out for each console produced and have it planned out in that respect before the console is even released -- I'd like to believe they have a somewhat better idea of the costs of things than ML does, so regardless of the prices ML shows it doesn't matter to us.