Decent 360/PS3 article in EDN's "Voice of the Engineer"

[Bigus Dickus]

A technically oriented magazine for professionals, not a gaming magazine or popular science type of rag. The 360 breakdown is really pretty thorough in its technical details, the PS3 breakdown obviously less so since released information is scarce. The article is written with, IMO, a bias towards the 360, partially because the analysis of the technology contained in each makes it seem that way, but there are also more references to "negative" speculations about the PS3 (such as a Sony patent which describes a method of locking a game (disc) to a parent console much the same way the DIVX movie format was going to, thereby potentially squashing the used/resale game market).

The most interesting information in the article is a speculative BOM breakdown on the 360 and PS3, the first one I've run across from a source that I would halfway trust. (For a little background, this magazine usually deals with IC's in cellphones and IT devices, powersupply design for portable electronics, the inner workings of RF design, etc. For example, two other articles in this issue are a detailed walk-thru of how to design a USB-based general-purpose-interface-bus controller and an in-depth discussion of digital filtering techniques. This is exactly the second article in three years on consumer consoles - so while I'd say it isn't really their area of expertise, they are familiar with build costs of consumer electronics in general).

Anyway, their estimate for BOM cost at launch for the 360 is $340, and for the PS3 at launch $495. A three year outlook for each console (from time of launch) yields $145 for the 360 and $195 for the PS3. These estimates do not include a cost of hard drive for the PS3 (assumed to be a peripheral, I suppose), but do for the 360 (so the premium system, more or less). The BOM includes categories for CPU, GPU, optical media, memory, hard drive, USB, ethernet, WiFi (on PS3), Bluetooth/wireless controller transceiver, Analog IC, other ASICs, and I/O support.

Of particular interest and relevance to discussion here is the estimates for the Blu-Ray drive: $100 at launch and $30 in three years. This contrasted to $25/$10 for the dual layer DVD in the 360. So here are some numbers, from one source at least, on the manufacturing cost to Sony of including the BRD in the PS3.

 

[Bigus Dickus]

Oh... there is also a section on the Revolution, though much shorter and less technically oriented than the 360 and PS3 sections. There is no BOM estimates for the Revolution, but some basics (known or speculated, I'm not sure) for for CPU, GPU, Memory, Networking, I/O, Storage, etc. are given. Nothing you won't find on this forum though.

 

[Carl B]

Well, putting a lot if it aside for now (that Sony patent has been described here in the past, and Sony has already mooted it's use for PS3 - at least at launch...), can you do a line-item for the respective BOMs?

There have been several analyst firms who's line-item BOMs leaked, and for myself, I felt several lines were suspect. And needless to say, both varied wildly from each other. This article seems to have an entirely different set, and it'd be nice to compare it's numbers against the others and just discuss in general.

 

[inefficient]

That article was already on the web last month. It's right here.

http://www.edn.com/article/CA6290451.html

 

[inefficient]

The PDF version is quite nice for those who have not yet see it.
http://www.edn.com/contents/images/6290451.pdf

And I think these tables have been posted before but I'll paste them again. As you can see, the numbers are quite rough to say the least.

TABLE 2 ESTIMATES OF INITIAL AND THREE-YEAR-LATER XBOX 360 BILL-OF-MATERIALS COSTS
Xbox 360 Component Estimated cost at launch Estimated cost after three years
CPU IBM PPC $100 $35
GPU ATI GPU $100 $30
Optical media DVD-ROM $25 $10
Memory 512-Mbyte GDDR3 $50 $25
Hard-disk drive Detachable 20-Gbyte hard-disk drive $25 $15
USB Three ports $5 $3
Ethernet Ethernet $5 $4
Wireless controller transceiver Proprietary 2.4 GHz $5 $3
Controllers As many as four wireless NA NA
Other Analog IC, ASICs, I/O $25 $20
Total $340 $145


TABLE 3 ESTIMATES OF INITIAL AND THREE-YEAR-LATER PLAYSTATION 3 BILL-OF-MATERIALS
PlayStation 3 Component Estimated cost at launch Estimated cost after three
CPU IBM Cell $160 $50
GPU 550-MHz Nvidia RSX $100 $30
Optical media Blu-ray $100 $30
Memory 256-Mbyte XDR/256-Mbyte GDDR3 $60 $30
Hard-disk drive Detachable 2.5-in. hard-disk drive NA NA
USB Six ports $5 $3
Ethernet Gigabit Ethernet $5 $4
WiFi 802.11b/g $5 $3
Bluetooth Bluetooth 2.0 $10 $5
Other Analog IC, ASICs, I/O $50 $40
Total $495 $195

 

[Carl B]

Oh totally. I thought they were doing their own analysis on the numbers, not just parroting other peoples. Yeah those numbers were certainly the center of some discussion a couple of months ago (and were the very numbers I was refering to initially).

That blu-ray number at $100 is sourced from SlashDot in the EDN article, which is sourced from The Inq. Blech.

EDIT: And they quote and uphold Allard on his 'no ventilation holes' comment. Clearly the world of console reporting is fast and loose.

 

[Phil]

I wonder how anyone can make a reasonable estimate without knowing the internal costs of having your own fabs, chips that will go into other consumer-electronic products as well, R&D, the deals they are getting on parts that are not in-house produced (which directly relates to quanity of those parts ordered), the royaltees between partners...

...and then even breaking it down to each individual unit/chip/port! Amazing!

 

[Nite_Hawk]

I don't buy the "$25/15" number for the 20gb harddrive.

Nite_Hawk

 

[!eVo!-X Ant UK]

Microsoft's Corporate Vice President J Allard gleefully points out that all the PS3 consoles and pictures of consoles that Sony has shown the public so far lack ventilation hole

That still makes me laugh, even though its old.

 

[Powderkeg]

I wonder how anyone can make a reasonable estimate without knowing the internal costs of having your own fabs, chips that will go into other consumer-electronic products as well, R&D, the deals they are getting on parts that are not in-house produced (which directly relates to quanity of those parts ordered), the royaltees between partners...

...and then even breaking it down to each individual unit/chip/port! Amazing!

You know, this isn't top secret super-science at work here.

It's consumer electronics, and you can estimate a pretty fair price by looking around and seeing what similar hardware costs in other devices in the industry. Sony may want to keep their cost of the BR drive secret, but that doesn't mean Panasonic won't tell you how much theirs costs to make.

 

[Phil]

You know, this isn't top secret super-science at work here.

It's consumer electronics, and you can estimate a pretty fair price by looking around and seeing what similar hardware costs in other devices in the industry. Sony may want to keep their cost of the BR drive secret, but that doesn't mean Panasonic won't tell you how much theirs costs to make.

I'm not necessarely talking about the Blu-Ray drive, I'm also talking about CPU / GPU estimated costs. Also, are these numbers taking into account R&D costs and those costs associated with the fabs of the parts that are done in-house?

But while you're at it, why don't you name me which other company has even comparable resources and an equal product (including a joint CPU effort that is/was planned to be used within their entiry devisions to bring down costs and ramp up production)?

Also, I'm not too convinced Panasonic would be sharing their in-house details on how much each specific part actually costs them at point x within the timeline of y-z. Price yes, costs doubtful. That also doesn't answer or take into account if Panasonic has the same costs or if they even take care of the same parts in-house and externally.

 

[Powderkeg]

I'm not necessarely talking about the Blu-Ray drive, I'm also talking about CPU / GPU estimated costs. Also, are these numbers taking into account R&D costs and those costs associated with the fabs of the parts that are done in-house?

Of course they take all of that stuff into account. This isn't some amaturish ****** magazine, it's a leading industry insider publication. Very professional operation.

But while you're at it, why don't you name me which other company has even comparable resources and an equal product (including a joint CPU effort that is/was planned to be used within their entiry devisions to bring down costs and ramp up production)?

Does the word Toshiba ring a bell? Cell processor partner, uses them in a lot of their products. They also sell some PC and commercial computer equipment that includes things like GPU's. And they even fab some of this stuff themselves.

Panasonic, Matsishita, and lots of others can tell you all about bluray.

Also, I'm not too convinced Panasonic would be sharing their in-house details on how much each specific part actually costs them at point x within the timeline of y-z. Price yes, costs doubtful. That also doesn't answer or take into account if Panasonic has the same costs or if they even take care of the same parts in-house and externally.

You reall are grasping at straws here, you know that right?

Let's see, the electronics industry has been around what, about 80 years now? What would you say the odds of someone coming out with a new product that is radically different in production costs and R&D costs than every single other electronics device that has been produced and sold in the past 80 years? So much so that no other company in the entire world would even be able to take an educated guess at the numbers and expect to come close?

Pretty slim odds there IMO.

 

[Phil]

Of course they take all of that stuff into account. This isn't some amaturish ****** magazine, it's a leading industry insider publication. Very professional operation.

And what has this got to do with the costs estimates that likely aren't done by them but from others which has already been argued and put to rest?

Does the word Toshiba ring a bell? Cell processor partner, uses them in a lot of their products. They also sell some PC and commercial computer equipment that includes things like GPU's. And they even fab some of this stuff themselves.

Sure. Does NDA ring a bell? What about estimates?

You might also want to let me know how Toshiba would let these guys know what the exact royalties are that Nvidia is getting, the fact that Sony is fabbing it on their own, the associated costs that Sony is using by having engineers on their team working on RSX as well etc to even get a close approximation of what part is costing Sony what amount of money.

Panasonic, Matsishita, and lots of others can tell you all about bluray.

Why don't you send them an email and find out for us? You could post your enquiries here. :smile:

You know, you can argue all you want; they'll just stay estimates, nothing more. Do you know what estimates mean?

 

[Mmmkay]

And what has this got to do with the costs estimates that likely aren't done by them but from others which has already been argued and put to rest?

They acknowledge the source of the numbers in the text:

"More generally, investment firm Merrill Lynch recently predicted that “PS3 will not only be significantly more costly than Xbox 360 at launch, but will continue to operate at a cost disadvantage for several years” (Reference 17). The company’s detailed cost analysis reveals the added burden Sony is shouldering versus Microsoft, due to factors such as the Blu-ray drive, larger die CPU, and Rambus DRAM. This burden will still be present three years into both consoles’ high-volume production ramps (tables 2 and 3)."

Which has indeed been argued to death and laid to rest.

[edit]Although, it is surprisingly amateurish that they derive the numbers by referencing a ps3updates(!!) article which itself referenced next-gen. In fact the majority of that reference list is quite cringeworthy to read through.

 

[Bigus Dickus]

Oh totally. I thought they were doing their own analysis on the numbers, not just parroting other peoples. Yeah those numbers were certainly the center of some discussion a couple of months ago (and were the very numbers I was refering to initially).

That blu-ray number at $100 is sourced from SlashDot in the EDN article, which is sourced from The Inq. Blech.

EDIT: And they quote and uphold Allard on his 'no ventilation holes' comment. Clearly the world of console reporting is fast and loose.

Didn't realize this was old news... this mag was sitting in my box after getting back from a long holiday. And I didn't do much reading on these consoles prior to a couple of weeks ago... sorry for posting outdated info.

I wondered whether EDN was stepping outside of its area of expertise. The article looked good at a glance, too bad their sources are questionable. Looks like they should stick to design guides for power supplies and discussions of cryptography.

 

[Shifty Geezer]

I think though the article is new, the source of the estimations unfortunatley aren;t their own, but figures already bandied around. It'd be nice to see some new estimates, instead of regurgitations of the old numbers, to see how they compare.

 

[aaronspink]

I don't buy the "$25/15" number for the 20gb harddrive.

Nite_Hawk

Why not? In volume order, they are likely paying 1/2 retail for the drive. I can buy a lot of different 20 and 40 GB drives for $40-50.

Aaron Spink
speaking for myself inc.

 

[aaronspink]

But while you're at it, why don't you name me which other company has even comparable resources and an equal product (including a joint CPU effort that is/was planned to be used within their entiry devisions to bring down costs and ramp up production)?

AMD, Intel, IBM, SUN, TI, Infineon, Philips, Samsung... etc.

I have a pretty good idea of the costs, but corp NDA probably prevent me from really speculating on it.

Aaron Spink
speaking for myself inc.

 

[Guden Oden]

I don't buy the "$25/15" number for the 20gb harddrive.

I don't really buy that number either. Harddrives don't scale down well in price. Instead, CAPACITY scales UP, but that simply means that instead of paying $15 in the future for a 20GB drive, MS will pay $25 for a 60-80GB drive. The 20GB on the other hand drive is likely to be costing them MORE than $25 in the future as factory assembly lines are shunted over to newer generations of drives and availability drops.

I don't buy their estimate of other things as well, $5 for 3 USB ports, what, are they nuts? The actual hardware costs are quite frankly minimal, the controller itself is a tiny portion of the I/O chip, there's some traces on the mobo and a couple physical connectors. I could likely go out and buy a hub for $5 in a computer store and get a plastic clamshell around it and a cable to hook it up to my PC to boot.

 

[scooby_dooby]

Except this HDD is fairly new technlogy so it wil scale down.

3.5" externall HDD's are fairly new, they are still quite expensive to buy, and this particular HDD is brand new to seagate's lineup.