For select games perhaps. I cant imagine these 100+ million users stopping buying games for their ps4’s.
No, but the people spending the most, might have migrated. We can not treat the whole install base as one, some segmentation is needed.
If (bad example) we have 100 users, 10 of them buys 25 games a year, and the rest buys 1 game a year. If those 10 went to next gen at launch, then you are making more money on next gen than last gen. Maybe some of those on last gen even delay any purchase until they get the new console. It's not a good example, but in conveys the idea.
That is the interesting part, to me, what is the breakdown of users when it comes to buying. It might not be correct, but the logic backs that people with more surplus cash to buy a lot of games also are the first ones to get into the new gen of consoles.
Anecdotally, everybody that I know that cared to have a PS5, managed to get one. Because they spend money on gaming and care about it, you could call it their primary hobby. The rest was like, naaa I will pick one up later, they are coincidentally the same group that spend less on games.
So if we use PS5 vs PS4 numbers, it's now about 20M vs 100M sold. But another not valid assumption, those 20 upgraded from the 100. So it's really 20 vs 80. Then those 20 only have to spend 4 times as much, right?
I got 20 PS5 titles I bought , if we add PS+ stuff its probably 26 or 28 etc. I have not bought more than a couple PS4 releases after the release of PS5., CP2077 was one. I do belive I help to pull the average spend up.
So when is the cost of creating a last gen version not worth it anymore?