Current console sales prove consoles aren't doomed afterall *spawn

[Shifty Geezer]

Half hour sitcoms and dramas didn't kill film so I highly doubt simple mobile titles will kill their more involved and complex console brethren.

That's one threat. The console market consisted of a diverse set of gamers, from hardware shooter fans to casual coop players and families and kids and whatnot. 10 years ago, if an eight year old wanted to waste an hour, they'd fire up their PS2 and play something, Crash Bandicoot or something. Now an eight year old can find that time-killing activity in a mobile.

"But the games aren't there!" No, but they could be, and there's reason to think they might be. There are FPSes on there, for example.

"But the controls suck." Yes, but 1) new games can factor in the controls and provide a console experience that works with them. 2) All these devices now support controllers and TV connectivity. If I want to play Dungeon Defenders 2, I can use a tablet connected to a TV without needing a console. Dungeon Defenders was released on PS360 - you needed a console to play it (or PC). DD2 is releasing on tablets as well. You won't need a console to play this arcade game. Things are definitely changing even if slowly. In fact, DD2 is scheduled for iOS and Android but not XB1 at the moment, so XB1 owners wanting to play this will do so on a non-console (unless they have PS4 too, natch)

Then on the other side, we had others reason to play console. PC was overpriced and complicated - that's no longer true. All its games were KB+M, but now controllers are widely supported. It's not as simple as console yet, but it's not the nightmare it was. The price of entry isn't as good value yet either, but the performance is going to be way more. We even have cheapo tablets offering full Windows, so you can have portability with your software library on tablet as well as your home gaming machine. Then there's the library and the fact PC now wallops consoles in many areas because it's completely open and devs don't need to jump through as many hoops nor put as much cash up front to get released on PC as console. And PC's on TV just works now. Then there's the fact consoles have become more buggy and patch-tastic, robbing the platform of some of its advantage.

Then, on another side, you have game streaming which offers a convenience. For Joe Gamer who doesn't particularly notice lag, streaming might be the choice.

Consoles used to stand apart, offering something unique that no-one could compete with. That is no longer true, and with so many different alternatives appealing to different demographics who used to only have consoles as a choice, it would be pretty amazing if there aren't any losses from consoles. The only counter to that is the potential for far more people gaming in general, so the losses from some demographics are made up for by new blood.

 

[goonergaz]

You have DX12 coming to PCs, and suddenly that "to the metal" performance bonus for consoles will be gone.

No matter how good you think DX12 will be, consoles will always benefit from being close-boxed and therefore out-perform similar hardware in PCs.

 

[goonergaz]

That's one threat. The console market consisted of a diverse set of gamers, from hardware shooter fans to casual coop players and families and kids and whatnot. 10 years ago, if an eight year old wanted to waste an hour, they'd fire up their PS2 and play something, Crash Bandicoot or something. Now an eight year old can find that time-killing activity in a mobile.

Isn't this like an arguement as to why cinema died when VHS came out!?

 

[iroboto]

No matter how good you think DX12 will be, consoles will always benefit from being close-boxed and therefore out-perform similar hardware in PCs.

There's that, but also if Mantle is a fairly good read as to how effective 'to the metal API is' over traditional APIs, we haven't yet seen the massive lead in benchmarks in games yet. But this will likely change in the future when developers decide to truly take advantage of the low level APIs on PC.

 

[Scott_Arm]

No matter how good you think DX12 will be, consoles will always benefit from being close-boxed and therefore out-perform similar hardware in PCs.

I honestly don't know how true that's going to be, especially when the hardware in the consoles is now basically the same as what is in the PCs. The Intel Iris Pro 6200 should be close to 1 TFLOP. The 5200 is 832 GFLOPS. What do you think the Skylake integrated GPUs are going to be like? Real DX12 hardware with a low-level API, paired with more memory and vastly more powerful CPUs than what's in X1 and PS4? Skylake may be out by the end of 2015. So, what are Intel GPUs going to be like in say 2016 or 2017, in year three or four of current gen? Rumours have Skylake GT4e around 72 EUs vs current GT3e at 40. Assuming clock speed for GT4e remains the same, and the number of ops per clock does not change, it'll be a 1.5 TFLOP integrated GPU.

And that's not even considering what other things Nvidia or AMD might release for APUs or low-end mobile GPUs.

Last gen the idea of buying a gaming laptop that could get you anywhere close to console performance was absurd, unless you bought an incredibly expensive gaming laptop with a high-end mobile GPU. That price is dropping fast now that integrated GPUs are going to be close to PS4 specs in year three.

 

[Scott_Arm]

There's that, but also if Mantle is a fairly good read as to how effective 'to the metal API is' over traditional APIs, we haven't yet seen the massive lead in benchmarks in games yet. But this will likely change in the future when developers decide to truly take advantage of the low level APIs on PC.

You don't see a massive difference on high-end hardware that is not CPU bound. On low end hardware, I saw many benchmarks that showed marked increases in performance. THat's where the competition for consoles is going to come from.

 

[chris1515]

I honestly don't know how true that's going to be, especially when the hardware in the consoles is now basically the same as what is in the PCs. The Intel Iris Pro 6200 should be close to 1 TFLOP. The 5200 is 832 GFLOPS. What do you think the Skylake integrated GPUs are going to be like? Real DX12 hardware with a low-level API, paired with more memory and vastly more powerful CPUs than what's in X1 and PS4? Skylake may be out by the end of 2015. So, what are Intel GPUs going to be like in say 2016 or 2017, in year three or four of current gen? Rumours have Skylake GT4e around 72 EUs vs current GT3e at 40. Assuming clock speed for GT4e remains the same, and the number of ops per clock does not change, it'll be a 1.5 TFLOP integrated GPU.

And that's not even considering what other things Nvidia or AMD might release for APUs or low-end mobile GPUs.

It is not like the console price will not go down... 299 $/€ and later 199 $/€

It is like phone, in France take an IPhone and a good insurance and a cheap 4G subscription is cheaper than take a subsidized phone and pay a bigger subscription but people don't like to pay more money forefront.

If you can find a better PC at the same price or cheaper than console maybe it can be a competitor and it is not as convenient too...

 

[liolio]

I see some confusion between the content let say "game optimized for living playing" and the "player" in our case the home console.

Netflix did not threatened movies or tv show industry but rental shops /other means of distribution for the same content.

 

[Scott_Arm]

Look, I'm not saying that laptops and ultrabooks are suddenly going to take over for consoles within the next five years. All I'm saying is that the price difference between PC gaming and console gaming is closing. Unless your console turns into a PC, you already need to have a PC or a tablet. At some point, with diminishing returns in visuals, if you've already got a laptop, ultrabook or tablet that can give you a similar experience, why do you spend the extra money? Maybe that's ten years from now, or fifteen. I don't know. But in the console world, that's probably only two generations of consoles.

 

[Shifty Geezer]

Isn't this like an arguement as to why cinema died when VHS came out!?

Not sure what you mean by that, by many small local cinema's did die thanks to TV, and cinema shrank to serving a niche of the visual arts. Before TV, everyone went to the cinema to watch the news and entertainment. After TV, they could do that at home.

It is not like the console price will not go down... 299 $/€ and later 199 /€

It is like phone, here even take an IPhone and a good insurance and a cheap 4G subscription is cheaper than take a subsidized phone and pay a bigger subscription but people don't like to pay more money forefront.

If you can find a better PC at the same price or cheaper than console maybe it can be a competitor and it is not as convenient too...

PC will always cost more, but the minimum price of a capable PC is now much, much lower than it used to be. It used to be that the consoles were powerhouses and you needed a monster PC to match them or had to wait for the PC to catch up at a sane price. Now, an entry level £300 PC is going to be competitive. That has down sides, but also upsides. It's not an ideal replacement for all console gamers, but for the tech-savvy subset of console gamers like myself, the PC is now an option where once it wasn't.

 

[chris1515]

For 399 $/euros with a game and a controller PS4/Xb1 are valuable. Same thing when price will be 299 $/euros or 199 $/€ or 149 €/$.

And mainstream gamer will be hard to convince to go to PC. It is more a core gamer road...

 

[chris1515]

Another things are exclusives console games... This is one important thing for core gamer...

 

[goonergaz]

Not sure what you mean by that, by many small local cinema's did die thanks to TV, and cinema shrank to serving a niche of the visual arts. Before TV, everyone went to the cinema to watch the news and entertainment. After TV, they could do that at home.

It's just what popped into my head when I read what you said - why would anyone go to the cinema when they can get a film on video and watch it in the comfort of their home? When VHS/Betamax came out there was concern for cinemas, but (certainly from where I'm from) if anything cinemas went from cheap worn-down dives you went to see films to state of the art places to take the family for a night out. They didn't die, they evolved as the demand will always be there for that service.

Regarding the dropping price in PCs - that's very true, thank god for exclusives!

 

[chris1515]

I think one of the best thing on PC side is crowdfunding game. If a steady flow of title in different genre are produced I will be back to PC gaming but for playing exclusive PC game like Elite Dangerous.

Edit: the game will probably come to consoles one day but I doubt it will be convenient to play it with a gamepad.

 

[goonergaz]

Another things are exclusives console games... This is one important thing for core gamer...

exclusives and simplicity - I don't care what people say PCs are still a pain...you have several options for where to buy games with some only on origin, some only on steam and others only elsewhere - then which chat system do I use? and how many accounts/passwords do I need!?!?! Not to mention my PS4 auto-updates everything, I'm always 'ready to go' whereas when I play my PC often things won't work because I need to update drivers or something else.

 

[Shifty Geezer]

And mainstream gamer will be hard to convince to go to PC. It is more a core gamer road...

Again, a portion of console gamers, not all of them.

Another things are exclusives console games... This is one important thing for core gamer...

I believe it's about 10% of console gamers, 20% max, going by sales of these games.

It's just what popped into my head when I read what you said - why would anyone go to the cinema when they can get a film on video and watch it in the comfort of their home?[/quote[VHS was crap! The quality was an abomination. It was okay for the time, but not comparable to the cinema.

When VHS/Betamax came out there was concern for cinemas, but (certainly from where I'm from) if anything cinemas went from cheap worn-down dives you went to see films to state of the art places to take the family for a night out. They didn't die, they evolved as the demand will always be there for that service.

That's a conflicting view. There isn't always a need for that service, so the service had to change, had to evolve. The need for entertainment was supplied by TV, so cinema had to evolve to support the big-screen experience. Now that TV is catching up with the cinema and cinema prices are getting kinda ridiculous, it'll be interesting what happens. Applying your analogy to consoles, consoles need to evolve if their existing audience is being satisfied elsewhere. That could come from VR, but otherwise the core service is reduced via competition.

 

[chris1515]

Again, a portion of console gamers, not all of them.

I believe it's about 10% of console gamers, 20% max, going by sales of these games.

It is only 10 to 20% of gamer but it is hardcore gamer, the only people suceptible to switch. I doubt a mainstream gamer buying the yearly of sport games and GTA will think about PC... A core gamer have heard of Bloodborne a mainstream gamer will say what are you talking about...

Edit: bad Android Samsung keyboard

 

[psorcerer]

Now, an entry level £300 PC is going to be competitive.

Let's not exaggerate, 300 quid PC will not get you close to PS4 performance. If game performance is similar for these it's only a problem of the game code, not the hardware.

 

[dobwal]

That's one threat. The console market consisted of a diverse set of gamers, from hardware shooter fans to casual coop players and families and kids and whatnot. 10 years ago, if an eight year old wanted to waste an hour, they'd fire up their PS2 and play something, Crash Bandicoot or something. Now an eight year old can find that time-killing activity in a mobile.

"But the games aren't there!" No, but they could be, and there's reason to think they might be. There are FPSes on there, for example.

"But the controls suck." Yes, but 1) new games can factor in the controls and provide a console experience that works with them. 2) All these devices now support controllers and TV connectivity. If I want to play Dungeon Defenders 2, I can use a tablet connected to a TV without needing a console. Dungeon Defenders was released on PS360 - you needed a console to play it (or PC). DD2 is releasing on tablets as well. You won't need a console to play this arcade game. Things are definitely changing even if slowly. In fact, DD2 is scheduled for iOS and Android but not XB1 at the moment, so XB1 owners wanting to play this will do so on a non-console (unless they have PS4 too, natch)

Then on the other side, we had others reason to play console. PC was overpriced and complicated - that's no longer true. All its games were KB+M, but now controllers are widely supported. It's not as simple as console yet, but it's not the nightmare it was. The price of entry isn't as good value yet either, but the performance is going to be way more. We even have cheapo tablets offering full Windows, so you can have portability with your software library on tablet as well as your home gaming machine. Then there's the library and the fact PC now wallops consoles in many areas because it's completely open and devs don't need to jump through as many hoops nor put as much cash up front to get released on PC as console. And PC's on TV just works now. Then there's the fact consoles have become more buggy and patch-tastic, robbing the platform of some of its advantage.

Then, on another side, you have game streaming which offers a convenience. For Joe Gamer who doesn't particularly notice lag, streaming might be the choice.

Consoles used to stand apart, offering something unique that no-one could compete with. That is no longer true, and with so many different alternatives appealing to different demographics who used to only have consoles as a choice, it would be pretty amazing if there aren't any losses from consoles. The only counter to that is the potential for far more people gaming in general, so the losses from some demographics are made up for by new blood.

Look at film. If there one thing that all these new technologies offer across the board, its watching movies. You can watch movies on your TV (through a plethora of devices including your gaming console), PC, smartphone and your smart watch. All while having long term rights to view these movies.

Yet movie theaters are still a viable platform and acts as the foundation of revenue generation for the film industry.

If anything it won't be these devices that make the console platform obsolete, it will be console market that slave these devices and absorb them into it's ecosystem.

Because the biggest advantage that console have and share with movie theaters is the ability to generate 100s of millions of dollars worth of revenue in a short time span. Outside of maybe PC/handhelds (both which have coexisted with consoles for decades) and their hardcore/core gaming market, I don't know of any devices with gaming capabilities who have software that generate that level of demand at release.

 

[goonergaz]

Again, a portion of console gamers, not all of them.

I believe it's about 10% of console gamers, 20% max, going by sales of these games.

Depends how you apportion the sales figures, and don't forget things will be skewed by multi-console owning and age restrictions.

Regarding the consoles evolving then they already do/are, and yes VR might be the next thing (certainly looks likely)