Current console sales prove consoles aren't doomed afterall *spawn

[-tkf-]

No it doesn't; it's too early to tell. A simile is Wii U. Nintendo fans saw 3 million sales at launch as proof that those of use who said it had limited appeal were wrong. Months later, they still pointed to it being the fastest selling console (over three months) as proof everyone loved Wii U. It was only after a year or so they could finally see that a strong early start isn't indicative of long term performance. A product can start strong and fizzle, or start weak and grow (or start strong and stay strong, or be still born!).

The timeline for consoles is longer than Wii U's first year so the start is a year rather than three months. One year of new consoles selling to the hard-core console fans doesn't prove that the 120+ million more-casual console gamers are going to be buying these machines over the coming 4 years. It might happen, it might not, but there is zero proof.

But the alternatives are starting to offer that experience, or at least have the potential to. When Joe Public can play Uncharted on their Samsung TV streamed over PSNow instead of buying a console, will they still buy a PS4 or will they be content with the streamed service?

That's not a rhetorical question, it's a literal one. We don't know how things will play out in the coming years, but there are lots of challenges to the console market. Taking one year of sales as proof that the console industry is good for another generation is jumping to conclusions IMO. It's only proof that there was a lot of core console gamers interested in new consoles.

Of course it's to early, but i would say the prognosis is very positive, the WII got lots of sales on the input/controller system, but the games didn't follow up, and the sales died. I think it is safe to say that XB1 and PS4 had a great start, thanks among other things to milking the old consoles so much that even these new lesser powerful consoles were able to show a real next step in graphics. But unlike the WII the games count way more, and the best games are yet to come, i am certain that GEN8 will sell so much it would seem foolish not to do the next round.

Streaming games and smudge gaming belongs to another thread imho, i think the threat they pose to real gaming on consoles are very small, the games simply aren't on mobile devices and streaming games have some many issues to overcome.

 

[Deleted member 86764]

I'd actually hazard a guess that streaming quality will exceed the current consoles over the next few years. You've gotta keep in mind that they're essentially limited to 1080p games, we haven't really had much beyond that.

Netflix is to introduce 4k steaming soon. Now if you were to have some crazy PC server-side with whatever the best GPU is in a couple of years (or GPUs) and it's rendering at 4k even if your TV is 1080p, that supersampled image from a top of the line GPU should destroy any console's IQ.

 

[psorcerer]

that supersampled image from a top of the line GPU should destroy any console's IQ

Yeah and destroy even a dream of profitable business for the operator of such a server farm.
Let's face it, the main problem with current streaming is not latency, latency can be defeated Akamai-style (by placing gaming farms at each ISP PoP), the main problem is the profitability of the business, and it's ridiculous right now. You cannot share GPU in any useful fashion, more than that you usually cannot even share servers between users (if a game is demanding). What you're left with is time-sharing between users and very space-inefficient data centres (gaming servers dissipate too much heat).

 

[London Geezer]

It doesn't have to be the same; only good enough.

For the foreseeable future, we are only getting 'almost good enough for last gen' and only to anyone with a mammoth internet connection.

The disc market is dwindling AFAIK because people prefer the lower quality, greater convenience of streamed movies. I have access to a library that I probably couldn't physical fit in my dwelling if on plastic discs, and I can access that library without having to dig around boxes of discs trying to find the movie I want. The only thing really holding steaming movies back is the crapness of the services, which continue to offer ridiculous limitations and experiences the little I've tried. Quality is a secondary issue but that'll be fixed with better codec and improving infrastructure. Fibre networks will enable BRD quality.

'Good enough' for streaming movies at Bluray quality is much, much easier to achieve than 'good enough' for PS4, let alone the quality we will expect from PS5/NextBox and further generations. Not only graphically but in terms of controls, lag and general playability, especially with the latest push into trying to release games at 60fps.

Personally I have been quite satisfied with the 1080p video I get from Amazon Prime, when it works, but it is only stable now that I have fiber. Sure, it's not quite Bluray quality for me, but I have eagle eyes and really, it is 'good enough'.

There will definitely be people sticking with consoles as long as they're available, but I do wonder what percentage will remain at the end of this gen. That depends mostly on what the competition does. If mobile can't get its act together regards decent controller-based gaming, consoles will have a comfortable round.

They will stick around as long as consoles make a viable investment as a way to access whatever 'works' at the time of release.

Streaming is, to me, a door into easy backward compatibility. And it will stay relegated to that for a long, long time.

 

[London Geezer]

Yeah and destroy even a dream of profitable business for the operator of such a server farm.
Let's face it, the main problem with current streaming is not latency, latency can be defeated Akamai-style (by placing gaming farms at each ISP PoP), the main problem is the profitability of the business, and it's ridiculous right now. You cannot share GPU in any useful fashion, more than that you usually cannot even share servers between users (if a game is demanding). What you're left with is time-sharing between users and very space-inefficient data centres (gaming servers dissipate too much heat).

I agree. If 'IQ destroyer at 0 hardware cost to the customer' was the goal, then it would make a lot more sense to produce a next gen console and sell it 'for free with subscription' to customers, much like smartphones/Sky boxes/many other things.

You can't get 4k gaming out of nothing. The cloud. God. You need the hardware somewhere.

 

[Shifty Geezer]

Streaming games and smudge gaming belongs to another thread imho, i think the threat they pose to real gaming on consoles are very small, the games simply aren't on mobile devices and streaming games have some many issues to overcome.

Well the whole argument comes down to the other threats! If these threats don't exist, there's no reason for the console business to shrink as it's unlikely consumers are going to have a grass-roots change in hobbies and interests. The specifics of the alternatives are discussed elsewhere and needn't be discussed. TBH this thread doesn't serve much purpose than the try and guess how the current short-term sales of consoles compares against the unpredictable future events in other spaces to produce a questionable prediction.

It's worth noting that MS has also added streaming as a strategy. And with many console games being cross-platform, PC-based streamed games could pick up big time. I think the only area consoles stand apart is VR, another uncertainty, where latency is absolutely critical to keep lower and steaming won't be good enough until we are using alien tech. When it comes to providing FIFA and COD et al, the alternatives are competitive in areas of convenience and cost, at least for a large part of the market which is only interested in games and doesn't care where they get them. eg. Something like SingStar which was so important for PS2 can be done on mobiles now. Just needs someone to do it. But then it could also be that gaming by and large is such a growth industry that even with the casual market moving away from consoles, enough people take up core gaming to replace them and maybe moreso.

 

[Deleted member 86764]

I agree. If 'IQ destroyer at 0 hardware cost to the customer' was the goal, then it would make a lot more sense to produce a next gen console and sell it 'for free with subscription' to customers, much like smartphones/Sky boxes/many other things.

You can't get 4k gaming out of nothing. The cloud. God. You need the hardware somewhere.

I am in no doubt whatsoever that streaming games is the future, it just depends on when that happens. I agree with your original statement that there's likely another hardware generation. After that? I'm no so sure. Depends on how VR and the future of internet speed and latency play out.

I never wanted music to go all digital, but now we're here, I'm never going back.

 

[London Geezer]

I never wanted music to go all digital, but now we're here, I'm never going back.

But that was one of my points. Music going disc-less was a no brainer, and games going disc-less is of course already on the way. It's just a simpler distribution method to play music on your dedicated hardware (be it iPhone, PC, whatever). But 'disc-less' has nothing to do with streaming of music and games alike.

Streaming music is an extension of it, but even then as a Spotify Premium subscriber myself, I know that the music I want available at all times (and/or not sucking on my data allowance) is the one I make available offline, therefore downloaded on my iPhone and so not really 'streamed' but simply saved on my 'dedicated hardware'.

We will need 'offline' dedicated hardware for a long, long time.

 

[London Geezer]

Also can we please keep in mind that my original post here was really a passing comment on another thread, and that I didn't in fact open a new thread just to stipulate my belief that this will NOT be the last gen of consoles?

It all sounds way too dramatic even for me!

 

[Shifty Geezer]

Oh ho! You can't backtrack now. If there's no PS5, you're reputation will be in tatters!

 

[London Geezer]

Oh ho! You can't backtrack now. If there's no PS5, you're reputation will be in tatters!

Your.

You're just trying to make me look like a drama queen, which could not be further from the truth!

 

[goonergaz]

I never wanted music to go all digital, but now we're here, I'm never going back.

We're not here yet, you may be but I still like CDs in the car. Call me old fasioned but I bought the digital release of LoU remastered but still bought the steelbook because I like shiney tangiable things lol

 

[tuna]

Netflix is to introduce 4k steaming soon. Now if you were to have some crazy PC server-side with whatever the best GPU is in a couple of years (or GPUs) and it's rendering at 4k even if your TV is 1080p, that supersampled image from a top of the line GPU should destroy any console's IQ.

With crazy compression and capped at 30 fps....

 

[tuna]

Note the issue isn't just people moving to mobile. They are
1) mobile devices taking casual gamers
2) mobile devices becoming powerful enough to offer console experiences, at least to a standard the mainstream wants
3) Streaming services making a dedicated box irrelevant
4) PCs becoming cheaper and more flexible and a direct competitor

Mobile and tablets are taking and CREATING casual gamers. My mother plays a lot of stuff on her iPad. But no matter how computionally powerful tablets and phones become they can't offer "the console experience".

 

[Shifty Geezer]

But no matter how computionally powerful tablets and phones become they can't offer "the console experience".

That's clearly untrue. A console consists of hardware and a software platform + content and controller. All these are possible on a tablet. That the tablets aren't a suitable replacement yet, nor that there's an obvious path to these coming, they are certainly technically capable of replacing consoles. eg. If Nintendo release a tablet that you can connect to your TV and can use with or without a controller depending on the game. It's not obviously going to happen, but its not impossible.

 

[dobwal]

I never understood the whole "mobile is killing console gaming". I find it hard to believe that people have been buying consoles and playing Zelda, Mario, Halo, FF, MGS, Madden and a whole host of other long time console franchises because candy crush and angry birds weren't available to play on their cell phones.

What we are seeing is the expansion and diversification of gaming not one market killing the other.

Half hour sitcoms and dramas didn't kill film so I highly doubt simple mobile titles will kill their more involved and complex console brethren.

 

[goonergaz]

eg. If Nintendo release a tablet that you can connect to your TV and can use with or without a controller depending on the game. It's not obviously going to happen, but its not impossible.

it's available today and called a console

 

[goonergaz]

Half hour sitcoms and dramas didn't kill film so I highly doubt simple mobile titles will kill their more involved and complex console brethren.

That's a great comparison IMHO

 

[upnorthsox]

I never understood the whole "mobile is killing console gaming". I find it hard to believe that people have been buying consoles and playing Zelda, Mario, Halo, FF, MGS, Madden and a whole host of other long time console franchises because candy crush and angry birds weren't available to play on their cell phones.

What we are seeing is the expansion and diversification of gaming not one market killing the other.

Half hour sitcoms and dramas didn't kill film so I highly doubt simple mobile titles will kill their more involved and complex console brethren.

Good point, and there was the same hysteria from the film industry about TV

 

[Scott_Arm]

I don't know of many people that didn't think this gen was going to be a huge success. The question is how far other platforms come along during the last half, third, quarter of this generation.

You have DX12 coming to PCs, and suddenly that "to the metal" performance bonus for consoles will be gone. Low-end CPUs and integrated GPUs may suddenly start to look a lot better. Intel Skylake is going to be an interesting product to watch, because it's going to be DX12 hardware. It'll be interesting to see how DX12 and Windows10 on Xbox One ties into the PC-side of Microsoft's business, or if they'll try to keep an artificial wall between the two.

On top of that, you have low-level APIs like Metal on iOS, which is still relatively new. A few more generations of mobile hardware, and visuals might be getting pretty good. They still have storage as an issue, and the seated living-room experience, as well as input. Then you have Xbox Live and PSN, and all of the standard social features they entail (game invites, party chat, friends lists etc). Steam is the only real competitor in that regard.

Diminishing returns are a real thing, we just haven't hit the point where mobile hardware it factors into consoles vs mobile. If this gen lasts as long as last gen, there's a chance we might start to see it. For the console business to be profitable, the products need to be made cheaply and have a long life, so at some point the $600 iPad/tablet/ultrabook may become competitive with the $300-400 console. People need computers, tablets. If those devices provide a similar experience, there becomes less of a reason to spend the extra $300 to get a console.

Everyone acknowledges there was a big shift this gen, where both the PS4 and Xbox One are essentially low to mid-range PCs, depending on how you define those terms. Mid-range is probably generous. If that continues as a trend, we either get more frequent console releases so they can stay competitive with laptops and mobile in terms of performance, or there are some other shifts in the industry.

On the software-side, the affordability and risk of making big budget games is already driving talented developers to the mobile/indie industry. People are making crowd-funded titles, no less ambitious in ideas, and releasing them on Steam, or as indie titles. People complained that 2014 was the year of "Remastered" titles. It'll be interesting to see, five years from now, if there's a lack of quality big-budget titles on a yearly basis. It doesn't seem like there will be in the short term, but we'll see how many devs studios survive in that time frame.