Coronavirus Pandemic (COVID-19) (SARS-CoV-2) [2020]

Shifty Geezer said:
Big numbers, but my forecast was overly pessimistic. Those two huge increases a fortnight ago weren't representative and Florida won't hit 50,000 by tomorrow. Maybe by the end of the month though.
Click to expand...

Florida positivity rate from Sunday's +15K on ~143K tests is at least 10.7%. So it's not a matter of more testing meaning more cases. It's spreading.

If you ever had a thought of human decency or common sense showing up they get squashed when you see Mask Protests.


https://www.usnews.com/news/top-new...-activists-hold-protests-disney-world-reopens

Florida Sets One-Day Record With Over 15,000 New COVID Cases, More Than Most Countries

Anti-mask activists in several states, including Florida and Michigan, have organized protests against local mandates, arguing that the measures infringe upon individual freedom.

Coronavirus infections are rising in about 40 states, according to a Reuters analysis of cases for the past two weeks compared with the prior two weeks. Nationally, the United States has broken global records by registering about 60,000 new cases a day for the last four days in a row, according to a Reuters tally. Hospitalizations and positive test rates are also rising in Arizona, California, Florida and Texas.

Florida reported a record amount of testing, with nearly 143,000 results announced on Sunday compared with an average of 68,000 for the prior seven days.
 
Shifty Geezer said:
Big numbers, but my forecast was overly pessimistic. Those two huge increases a fortnight ago weren't representative and Florida won't hit 50,000 by tomorrow. Maybe by the end of the month though.
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50K per day?
With the new rules in place, it's unlikely to happen, unless there is just a complete disregard for them by everyone.
50K new cases a day would be a grim runaway situation.
 
iroboto said:
50K per day?
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Yeah. That was tracking the increases from 3000 to 5000 and then 5,000 to 9000 over a few days. These were just exceptionally high numbers and things have normalised a lot lower than that.

The new rules shouldn't impact increases for a couple of weeks, so we should see more growth until then. They also aren't that extreme, like not the sort of lockdowns that were necessary to quash the disease elsewhere. 25k a day still seems very plausible. I don't think people will take it seriously until they all know someone affected, at least friend-of-a-friend level to make it real, so it'll keep growing as resistance to spread is half-arsed until it's personal.
 
I don't know anyone affected but I followed recommendations anyway what does that mean?


I was being snarky, but seriously if we consider why so many people ignore reality perhaps we can do better in the future.
 
But some have. That was my point. Many people are listening to the cdc and trying to do things properly. So saying human nature is dismissing those people.
 
Sxotty said:
I don't know anyone affected but I followed recommendations anyway what does that mean?


I was being snarky, but seriously if we consider why so many people ignore reality perhaps we can do better in the future.
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Yea. Which is exactly why government and law enforcement is necessary. It’s not like people driving off a cliff on their own whim. It’s more like people deciding to drive the streets with 1 hand tied behind their backs. Yea they will likely get hurt, but they will hurt others as well.
 
Looks as though it will become a requirement to wear masks in shops here in England shortly (already a requirement in Scotland):

https://www.theguardian.com/world/2020/jul/13/face-masks-shops-england-24-july-boris-johnson

Makes sense. If it helps to stop a serious second wave, it will be worth the inconvenience.

As usual with this government, it is something which has been sprung on us after mixed messages over the weekend with one minister saying one thing and another saying the opposite. They still seem to be making up policy on the hoof even after all these months, with no apparent organisation of messaging and regulations in the cabinet before they are announced. That's still the thing that worries me most. We're veering between caution and rashness and back again week by week. Ultimately, it is just going to cause confusion.
 
2019 Novel Coronavirus (SARS-CoV-2/COVID-19) for Dallas County Texas
https://www.dallascounty.org/departments/dchhs/2019-novel-coronavirus.php

July 13, 2020 - 34,914 confirmed cases - 457 deaths

34,914 confirmed cases up 1,114 and six new deaths
those 1,114 new cases represent a 3.3% increase over the last day

Increases (by percent) since March 27, 2020 :
21.0%, 19.6%, 11.1%, 12.5%, 14.9%
-- Month of April 2020 --
15.8%, 13.7%, 10.8%, 10.2%, 9.6%, 3.9%, 9.2%, 5.0%, 8.2%, 7.3%, 7.0%, 4.8%, 3.8%, 5.0%, 5.8%,
4.0%, 6.0%, 6.1%, 4.5%, 3.5%, 3.6%, 3.1%, 3.0%, 2.6%, 2.6%, 3.6%, 3.0%, 4.3%, 3.5%, 5.3%
-- Month of May 2020 --
5.3%, 4.9%, 6.0%, 5.7%, 5.9%, 5.3%, 5.2%, 4.9%, 4.7%, 4.5%, 4.3%, 3.9%, 3.8%, 3.6%, 2.9%, 3.0%,
2.8%, 3.0%, 2.9%, 2.4%, 2.3%, 2.5%, 2.0%, 2.1%, 1.9%, 2.1%, 2.1%, 2.2%, 2.1%, 2.2%, 2.3%
-- Month of June 2020 --
2.2%, 2.5%, 2.2%, 2.6%, 2.7%, 2.5%, 2.2%, 2.1%, 2.4%, 2.4%, 2.4%, 2.5%, 2.5%, 2.2%, 2.1%,
2.1%, 2.8%, 2.6%, 2.4%, 2.5%, 2.5%, 2.7%, 2.6%, 2.2%, 2.2%, 2.7%, 2.9%, 2.9%, 2.8%, 2.9%
-- Month of July 2020 --
2.5%, 3.2%, 4.8%, 4.7%, 4.3%, 4.7%, 4.0%, 3.7%, 4.1%, 3.8%, 3.5%, 3.6% and now 3.3%

Increases (by count) since March 27, 2020 :
+64, +72, +49, +61, +82
-- Month of April 2020 --
+100, +100, +90, +94, +97. +43, +106, +63, +108, +105, +107, +79, +65, +89, +109,
+80, +124, +134, +104, +84, +90, +81, +80, +71, +75, +105, +91, +135, +112, +179
-- Month of May 2020 --
+187, +181, +234, +237, +253, +246, +251, +249, +250, +251, +253, +236, +243, +235, +199, +214,
+205, +224, +225, +186, +183, +204, +172, +178, +171, +190, +197, +202, +200, +219, +228
-- Month of June 2020 --
+228, +257, +239, +285, +298, +289, +263, +254, +298, +300, +312, +328, +345, +302, +305,
+306, +413, +392, +394, +395, +408, +454, +445, +391, +403, +496, +561, +570, +572, +601
-- Month of July 2020 --
+544, +708, +1,085, +1,103, +1,062, +1,214, +1,077, +1,029, +1,201, +1,164, +1,101, +1,174 and now +1,114

As of 11:00am July 13, 2020, Dallas County Health and Human Services is reporting 1,114 additional positive cases of 2019 novel coronavirus (COVID-19), bringing the total case count in Dallas County to 34,914, including 457 deaths.

The additional 6 deaths being reported today include:

  • A man in his 50’s who was a resident of the City of Dallas. He had been critically ill in an area hospital, and did not have any underlying high risk health conditions.
  • A man in his 60’s who was a resident of the City of Dallas. He had been critically ill in an area hospital, and had underlying high risk health conditions.
  • A man in his 60’s who was a resident of the City of Dallas. He had been critically ill in an area hospital, and did not have any underlying high risk health conditions.
  • A man in his 70’s who was a resident of a long-term care facility in the City of DeSoto. He had been critically ill in an area hospital, and did not have any underlying high risk health conditions.
  • A man in his 70’s who was a resident of the City of Dallas. He had been critically ill in an area hospital, and had underlying high risk health conditions.
  • A woman in her 90’s who was a resident of a long-term care facility in the City of Mesquite. She passed away in an area hospital, and had underlying high risk health conditions.
An increasing proportion of COVID-19 cases in Dallas County are being diagnosed in young adults between 18 to 39 years of age, such that of all cases reported after June 1st, half have been in this age group.

Increasing reports of cases are continuing to be associated with multiple large recreational and social gatherings since the beginning of June, including house parties.

Of the cases requiring hospitalization to date, more than two-thirds have been under 65 years of age. Diabetes has been an underlying high-risk health condition reported in about a third of all hospitalized patients with COVID-19.

The percentage of respiratory specimens testing positive for SARS-CoV-2 was 30% among symptomatic patients presenting to area hospitals in week 27. The age-adjusted rates of confirmed COVID-19 cases in non-hospitalized patients have been highest among Hispanics (667.4 per 100,000), Asians (187.4 per 100,000) and Blacks (136.4 per 100,000). These rates have been higher than Whites (43.8 per 100,000). Over 60% of overall COVID-19 cases to date have been Hispanic.

Of cases requiring hospitalization who reported employment, over 80% have been critical infrastructure workers, with a broad range of affected occupational sectors, including: healthcare, transportation, food and agriculture, public works, finance, communications, clergy, first responders and other essential functions.

Of the 457 total deaths reported to date, about a third have been associated with long-term care facilities.
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State of Texas complete COVID-19 data breakdown

75af1a2d-68d9-450a-9ce9-ccd60b8fbfe3.png


https://txdshs.maps.arcgis.com/apps/opsdashboard/index.html#/ed483ecd702b4298ab01e8b9cafc8b83
https://txdshs.maps.arcgis.com/apps/opsdashboard/index.html#/0d8bdf9be927459d9cb11b9eaef6101

Data as of 7/13/2020 @3:30 PM:

Total Tests: 2,820,803 (Up +62,944)

Total Viral Tests: 2,540,125 (Up +47,371)

Only 90.0% of Total Tests are Viral Tests the other 10.0% of tests are the useless Antibody Tests

Cases Reported: 264,313 (Up +5,655)

Fatalities: 3,235 (Up +43)

Texas tests per 1M population are 97,283 (Up +2,171) which places Texas as the 11th worst State.

Click this link: https://www.worldometers.info/coronavirus/country/us and on the page click the Tests / 1M pop column twice to sort from worst to first

They are using roughly 28.996 million as the population of Texas.

Texas is mixing Viral and Antibody Tests in the total test numbers which is very bad as Antibody Tests are useless in determining if someone has the Coronavirus.

As of today the real number of Total Viral Tests for Texas is 2,540,125 which works out to be 87,603 per 1M population so Texas is really the 10th worst state in testing
 
Sxotty said:
But some have. That was my point. Many people are listening to the cdc and trying to do things properly. So saying human nature is dismissing those people.
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You said identify what can be improved to do better.

You asked why do so many people ignore reality. Those are the people not following advice, or rather, following different advice. They are the ones that need to change and they likely won't without some emotional energy to drive the change. If they start perceiving people in their immediate life circle dying and suffering serious illness, that change will happen. Until then, they won't change and you'd have to use some attempts at control, carrot or stick, to manipulate them into acting in a way they'd prefer not to.

This is basically a huge RSPC topic - "why do some humans do dumb shit and ruin it for the rest of us?" ;) And the answer there I think is human nature is fundamentally diverse.
 
Mariner said:
Oh, and just to indicate how incoherent the overall government strategy is, it won't become compulsory to wear masks in shops in England until 24th July. If masks are to be mandated for public health reasons, why the heck is there going to be a delay of 11 days before it comes into force?
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My theory is the UK government is happy to tolerate the disease so long as the economy is sustained because we can't afford to lock down forever. And as such, they don't really have a clear strategy because it's a balancing act based largely on guesswork.

If they were serious about releasing lockdown sensibly, they'd make a change and then do nothing more for at least two weeks, probably better three minimum, to see what the impact on growth of the disease is. Then if R remain below 1, introduce the next step of opening. But they are timetabling changes without seeing what the current changes are doing to the growth of the disease. With the recent changes to opening up stores and letting people visit each other, how do they know that it'll be safe to open gyms on the 24th July? They can't know that, so they must be thinking more about supporting the economy in these choices than stifling the virus.

England seems to have levelled out at 500 new cases a day. We went from 500 cases a day to the peak of 6,000 in just two weeks, so where we are now, we're two weeks away from another large surge. That's a fine line to walk and the UK isn't allowing enough time from changes in policy to see the results. But Europe is much the same. There are only a handful of countries that had major infections that have got daily cases below 100.

So I think the intention is to balance virus spread with the economy, rather than get it down to near zero and contain it. And this is driven my guesswork, not scientific modelling, so the message is all over the shop because the people making the decisions don't know what decision they're going to make today as they are torn between supporting the economy and keeping the disease down and know that a choice could mean lost jobs or lost lives and they've know real way of knowing which, but they are pressured to make both.
 
43 coronavirus cases have been linked to one large house party in Michigan

https://www.msn.com/en-us/news/us/43-coronavirus-cases-have-been-linked-to-one-large-house-party-in-michigan/ar-BB16HAfe

Forty-three new coronavirus cases have been linked to a large house party from early July in Washtenaw County, Michigan, according to health officials.

Most of the new cases are young people between the ages of 15 and 25, the Washtenaw County Health Department said in a press release Monday.

It is believed that the party took place between July 2 and 3, and health officials are now asking anyone who attended the party to self-quarantine and monitor themselves for symptoms of the virus for 14 days.

There were an additional 66 people who are believed to have had face-to-face contact with a confirmed case. That number does not include family members who are immediate household contacts of the newly identified cases, the release said.
 
Just noting some of the states with highest increases... Perhaps what's a worse sign yet is the states that had lower number of total cases seeing large increases in new cases. One would need to examine their testing positivity rates to see if it's from more testing or more spread. I suspect it's from more spread because of little to no restrictions.

Florida is at 291,629 with +9,194 new cases. They started this surge with only 57,447 cases on June 2, 2020.
Arizona is at 128,097 with +4,273 new cases.
Georgia is at 123,963 with +3,394 new cases.

North Carolina is at 89,484 with +1,755 new cases.
Louisiana is at 82,051 with +2,224 new cases.
Tennessee is at 66,788 with +1,514 new cases.
South Carolina is at 60,389 with +2,221 new cases.
Alabama is at 57,255 with +1,710 new cases.
Mississippi is at 37,542 with +862 new cases.
Nevada is at 29,619 with +1,104 new cases.
Oklahoma is at 21,738 with +993 new cases.
 
Ohio's testing is at 18.9K for the day.
Ohio is at +1142 new cases, with Cuyahoga County at +150 new cases.
Test Positivity rate is around 6.02% for these new tests.

The new cases numbers is nearly 4 times higher today than it was a month ago, when they were more in the range of 325-430.

Here is the trends which is using reported date and not arbitrary and incorrectly identified user reported onset date. This graphic is resized by ~ 75% and taken from the State's Current Trends page: https://coronavirus.ohio.gov/wps/portal/gov/covid-19/dashboards/current-trends

upload_2020-7-14_14-29-34.png

Here is the raw data for the last few days, filling in the limited data that is available:

upload_2020-7-14_14-28-49.png

Code: 
Date; Total Tests; New Tests; Tests per 1M Population; Total Cases; Cuyahoga County Cases; Hospitalizations; Total Deaths; New Cases; New Hospitalizations; New Deaths
2020-06-26;    718,086;    21,886;    61,433;    48,638;    6,287;    7,570;    2,788;    987;    68;    16
2020-06-27;    741,353;    23,267;    63,423;    49,455;    6,429;    7,624;    2,804;    817;    54;    16
2020-06-28;    753,246;    11,893;    64,441;    50,309;    6,571;    7,681;    2,807;    854;    57;    3
2020-06-29;    770,860;    17,614;    65,947;    51,046;    6,694;    7,746;    2,818;    737;    65;    11
2020-06-30;    784,362;    13,502;    67,103;    51,789;    6,831;    7,839;    2,863;    743;    93;    45
2020-07-01;    788,403;    4,041;    67,448;    52,865;    7,013;    7,911;    2,876;    1,076;    72;    13
2020-07-02*;    789,704;    1,301;    67,560;    54,166;    7,013;    8,038;    2,886;    1,301;    127;    10
2020-07-03*;    824,481;    34,777;    70,535; 55,257;    7,392;    8,084;    2,903;    1,091;    46;    17
2020-07-04;    844,675;    20,194;    72,262;    56,183;    7,571;    8,111;    2,907;    926;    27;    4
2020-07-05;    865,069;    20,394;    74,007;    57,151;    7,724;    8,172;    2,911;    968;    61;    4
2020-07-06;    877,688;    12,619;    75,087;    57,956;    7,883;    8,249;    2,927;    805;    77;    16
2020-07-07;    892,731;    15,043;    76,374;    58,904;    8,048;    8,383;    2,970;    948;    134;    43
2020-07-08;    911,905;    19,174;    78,014;    60,181;    8,277;    8,489;    2,991;    1,277;    106;    21
2020-07-09;    931,834;    19,929;    79,719;    61,331;    8,518;    8,570;    3,006;    1,150;    81;    15
2020-07-10;    955,697;    23,863;    81,760;    62,856;    8,786;    8,701;    3,032;    1,525;    131;    26
2020-07-11;    979,149;    23,452;    83,767;    64,214;    8,979;    8,770;    3,036;    1,358;    69;    4
2020-07-12;    1,002,463;    23,314;    85,761;    65,592;    9,208;    8,842;    3,058;    1,378;    72;    22
2020-07-13;    1,020,811;    18,348;    87,331;    66,853;    9,359;    8,915;    3,064;    1,261;    73;    6
2020-07-14;    1,039,767;    18,956;    88,953;    67,995;    9,509;    9,049;    3,069;    1,142;    134;    5
 
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