Coronavirus Pandemic (COVID-19) (SARS-CoV-2) [2020]

2019 Novel Coronavirus (SARS-CoV-2/COVID-19) for Dallas County Texas
https://www.dallascounty.org/departments/dchhs/2019-novel-coronavirus.php

July 12, 2020 - 33,800 confirmed cases - 451 deaths

33,800 confirmed cases up 1,174 and two new deaths
those 1,174 new cases represent a 3.6% increase over the last day

Increases (by percent) since March 27, 2020 :
21.0%, 19.6%, 11.1%, 12.5%, 14.9%
-- Month of April 2020 --
15.8%, 13.7%, 10.8%, 10.2%, 9.6%, 3.9%, 9.2%, 5.0%, 8.2%, 7.3%, 7.0%, 4.8%, 3.8%, 5.0%, 5.8%,
4.0%, 6.0%, 6.1%, 4.5%, 3.5%, 3.6%, 3.1%, 3.0%, 2.6%, 2.6%, 3.6%, 3.0%, 4.3%, 3.5%, 5.3%
-- Month of May 2020 --
5.3%, 4.9%, 6.0%, 5.7%, 5.9%, 5.3%, 5.2%, 4.9%, 4.7%, 4.5%, 4.3%, 3.9%, 3.8%, 3.6%, 2.9%, 3.0%,
2.8%, 3.0%, 2.9%, 2.4%, 2.3%, 2.5%, 2.0%, 2.1%, 1.9%, 2.1%, 2.1%, 2.2%, 2.1%, 2.2%, 2.3%
-- Month of June 2020 --
2.2%, 2.5%, 2.2%, 2.6%, 2.7%, 2.5%, 2.2%, 2.1%, 2.4%, 2.4%, 2.4%, 2.5%, 2.5%, 2.2%, 2.1%,
2.1%, 2.8%, 2.6%, 2.4%, 2.5%, 2.5%, 2.7%, 2.6%, 2.2%, 2.2%, 2.7%, 2.9%, 2.9%, 2.8%, 2.9%
-- Month of July 2020 --
2.5%, 3.2%, 4.8%, 4.7%, 4.3%, 4.7%, 4.0%, 3.7%, 4.1%, 3.8%, 3.5% and now 3.6%

Increases (by count) since March 27, 2020 :
+64, +72, +49, +61, +82
-- Month of April 2020 --
+100, +100, +90, +94, +97. +43, +106, +63, +108, +105, +107, +79, +65, +89, +109,
+80, +124, +134, +104, +84, +90, +81, +80, +71, +75, +105, +91, +135, +112, +179
-- Month of May 2020 --
+187, +181, +234, +237, +253, +246, +251, +249, +250, +251, +253, +236, +243, +235, +199, +214,
+205, +224, +225, +186, +183, +204, +172, +178, +171, +190, +197, +202, +200, +219, +228
-- Month of June 2020 --
+228, +257, +239, +285, +298, +289, +263, +254, +298, +300, +312, +328, +345, +302, +305,
+306, +413, +392, +394, +395, +408, +454, +445, +391, +403, +496, +561, +570, +572, +601
-- Month of July 2020 --
+544, +708, +1,085, +1,103, +1,062, +1,214, +1,077, +1,029, +1,201, +1,164, +1,101 and now +1,174

 

State of Texas complete COVID-19 data breakdown



https://txdshs.maps.arcgis.com/apps/opsdashboard/index.html#/ed483ecd702b4298ab01e8b9cafc8b83
https://txdshs.maps.arcgis.com/apps/opsdashboard/index.html#/0d8bdf9be927459d9cb11b9eaef6101

Data as of 7/12/2020 @3:30 PM:

Total Tests: 2,757,859 (Up +47,569)

Total Viral Tests: 2,492,754 (Up +63,130)

Only 90.4% of Total Tests are Viral Tests the other 9.6% of tests are the useless Antibody Tests

Cases Reported: 258,658 (Up +8,196)

Fatalities: 3,192 (Up +80)

Texas tests per 1M population are 95,112 (Up +1,640) which places Texas as the 12th worst State.

Click this link: https://www.worldometers.info/coronavirus/country/us and on the page click the Tests / 1M pop column twice to sort from worst to first

They are using roughly 28.996 million as the population of Texas.

Texas is mixing Viral and Antibody Tests in the total test numbers which is very bad as Antibody Tests are useless in determining if someone has the Coronavirus.

As of today the real number of Total Viral Tests for Texas is 2,492,754 which works out to be 85,969 per 1M population so Texas is really the 10th worst state in testing

 

Cases in Texas are exploding.

Total cases through May 31st was only 64,287, Total cases for the month of June was: 94,223
The month of June alone was 146.6% more than all the cases before June 1st.

Last seven day's case increases are 8,196, 10,351, 9,765, 9,782, 9,979, 10,028, 5,318

First day that cases exceeded 2000 was June 10th.
First day that cases exceeded 3000 was June 17th.
First day that cases exceeded 4000 was June 20th.
First day that cases exceeded 5000 was June 23th.
First day that cases exceeded 6000 was June 30th.
First day that cases exceeded 7000 was July 1st.
First day that cases exceeded 8000 was July 1st.
First day that cases exceeded 9000 was July 7th.
First day that cases exceeded 10000 was July 7th.

The numbers of cases in Texas for each week since June 1, 2020 are :

June 1-7 : Total Cases 10,691 - Average of 1,527 per day
June 8-14 : Total Cases 12,876 - Average of 1,839 per day - 20% higher than the previous week
June 15-21 : Total Cases 22,271 - Average of 3,182 per day - 73% higher than the previous week
June 22-28 : Total Cases 37,127 - Average of 5,304 per day - 67% higher than the previous week
June 29-July 5 : Total Cases 46,511 - Average of 6,644 per day - 25% higher than the previous week
July 6-12: Total Cases 63,419 - Average of 9,060 per day - 36% higher than the previous week

 

Michigan coronavirus: Revelers celebrated the July 4 weekend at a Michigan lake. Now some have Covid-19

https://www.msn.com/en-us/health/me...higan-lake-now-some-have-covid-19/ar-BB16EpdG

After revelers celebrated the Fourth of July at a Michigan lake, some started testing positive for Covid-19 -- prompting health officials to warn other party-goers that they might have be infected, too.

The Health Department of Northwest Michigan said other health officials in the state reported that several people have tested positive "after attending the festivities at the Torch Lake sandbar over the Fourth of July holiday," the department said Friday.

Those who tested positive weren't able to identify everyone they had contact with, "and therefore we want to make the public aware that those who attended could be at risk for exposure, and additional cases could be seen in the coming days," the health department said.

"If you were at the Torch Lake Sandbar party over 4th of July weekend, you should monitor for signs and symptoms of COVID-19 and seek testing if symptoms should develop or if you were at high risk for exposure due to being in close proximity with others or not wearing a cloth facial covering."

 

Fucking Michigan!

 

Nah, I think Florida wins the day for new highest daily case total for any state or European country ever.

 

Of course, Michigan never wins, they only lose.

 

Immunity to Covid-19 could be lost in months, UK study suggests


People who have recovered from Covid-19 may lose their immunity to the disease within months, according to research suggesting the virus could reinfect people year after year, like common colds.

In the first longitudinal study of its kind, scientists analysed the immune response of more than 90 patients and healthcare workers at Guy’s and St Thomas’ NHS foundation trust and found levels of antibodies that can destroy the virus peaked about three weeks after the onset of symptoms then swiftly declined.

Blood tests revealed that while 60% of people marshalled a “potent” antibody response at the height of their battle with the virus, only 17% retained the same potency three months later. Antibody levels fell as much as 23-fold over the period. In some cases, they became undetectable.

“People are producing a reasonable antibody response to the virus, but it’s waning over a short period of time and depending on how high your peak is, that determines how long the antibodies are staying around,” said Dr Katie Doores, lead author on the study at King’s College London.

The study has implications for the development of a vaccine, and for the pursuit of “herd immunity” in the community over time.

The immune system has multiple ways to fight the coronavirus but if antibodies are the main line of defence, the findings suggested people could become reinfected in seasonal waves and that vaccines may not protect them for long.

“Infection tends to give you the best-case scenario for an antibody response, so if your infection is giving you antibody levels that wane in two to three months, the vaccine will potentially do the same thing,” said Doores. “People may need boosting and one shot might not be sufficient.”

Early results from the University of Oxford have shown that the coronavirus vaccine it is developing produces lower levels of antibodies in macaques than are seen in humans infected with the virus. While the vaccine appeared to protect the animals from serious infection, they still became infected and may have been able to pass on the virus.

Speaking on Sky News, Prof Robin Shattock of Imperial College London said a competing vaccine developed by his group could be available in the first half of next year if clinical trials go well. But he cautioned there was “no certainty” any of the vaccines in development would work, and said it is still unclear what kind of immune response is needed to prevent infection.

The King’s College study is the first to have monitored antibody levels in patients and hospital workers for three months after symptoms emerged. The scientists drew on test results from 65 patients and six healthcare workers who tested positive for the virus, and a further 31 staff who volunteered to have regular antibody tests between March and June.

The study, which has been submitted to a journal but has yet to be peer-reviewed, found that antibody levels rose higher and lasted longer in patients who were severe cases. This may be because the patients have more virus and churn out more antibodies to fight the infection.

There are four other types of coronavirus in widespread circulation, which cause the common cold. “One thing we know about these coronaviruses is that people can get reinfected fairly often,” said Prof Stuart Neil, a co-author on the study. “What that must mean is that the protective immunity people generate doesn’t last very long. It looks like Sars-Cov-2, the virus that causes Covid-19, might be falling into that pattern as well.”

Prof Jonathan Heeney, a virologist at the University of Cambridge, said the study confirmed a growing body of evidence that immunity to Covid-19 is short-lived. “Most importantly, it puts another nail in the coffin of the dangerous concept of herd immunity,” he said.

“I cannot underscore how important it is that the public understands that getting infected by this virus is not a good thing. Some of the public, especially the youth, have become somewhat cavalier about getting infected, thinking that they would contribute to herd immunity. Not only will they place themselves at risk, and others, by getting infected, and losing immunity, they may even put themselves at greater risk of more severe lung disease if they get infected again in the years to come.”

But Prof Arne Akbar, an immunologist at UCL, said antibodies are only part of the story. There is growing evidence, he said, that T cells produced to fight common colds can protect people as well. Those patients who fight the virus with T cells may not need to churn out high levels of antibodies, he added.

Shattock said the study was important and indicated that neutralising antibodies rapidly wane. “This certainly suggests that we cannot be confident natural infection will be protective for a significant proportion of individuals, nor certain of the duration of any protection.”

He added: “We would however expect that re-infection would be less severe for any individual as they will still retain immune memory allowing them to more rapidly respond. Nevertheless they could still be a source of onward transmission.

“It does indicate that vaccines need to do better than natural infection, providing consistent responses in the majority of individuals and sustained levels of protective antibodies. Ultimately this may require the use of annual boosting immunisations, particularly for the most vulnerable. This could be delivered alongside annual influenza immunisations.”

https://www.theguardian.com/world/2...-19-could-be-lost-in-months-uk-study-suggests

 

That leaves two other options if so.
1) Survival of the fittest and let Natural Selection follow its course.
2) An attempt to utterly eradicate the disease by immunising everyone at the same time, smallpox style.

 

Also:

3) Develop seasonal vaccines to lessen the impact of illness in the event that you do catch it. Also develop effective treatments to treat more severe infections and hopefully reduce mortality/complications from these cases.

This would ideally be allied with:

4) Develop a cheap and reliable test which can detect the virus soon after infection to enable you to quarantine and shut down transmission at an earlier stage.

Smallpox was so deadly that eradicating it was less of a challenge. You didn't get the hidden mild or asymptomatic cases which makes Covid-19 so effective at spreading. Chances of eradicating Covid-19 are pretty much zero by this point as it is so widespread across the globe.

 

Well crap. I feared this (due to how common cold worked), but jeez. Still even if antibody levels fall i'll cross my fingers for now that the second time is still not as bad.

 

Maybe is my English that is really bad, but HCQ-AZ is not preventative.
HCZ-AZ is an experimental treatment to be used early by the confirmerd cases and is not a substitute to preventative measures.

Preventative is quarantine, social distance, disinfection tunnels, face shields, masks, wash hands and other hygiene measures.
Also some people are having Ivermectine as preventative (once in a week), specially doctors daily exposed to the virus.
Soldiers are using HCQ as preventative because they are daily exposed too.

 

Treatment is part of option 1).

If you don't eradicate the disease and rely on lockdown, firstly you'd need to get infections very low so there isn't a general presence and it's very confidence, but then the future will consist of pockets of humanity being quarantined for long periods of time. And that's assuming contact tracing will work. Due the high mobility of modern civilisation, it likely won't be containable as other diseases have been.

If you're going to go the route of lockdowns and containment, you may as well pursue total eradication, which would need a completely effective tracking and isolating method worldwide, which is unrealistic. So I think a vaccine solution that stops the disease infecting anyone for 6 months is the only option that'd actually have a chance of working.

 

There is also the hope that antibody measurements aren't the only thing to think about. The early study on T cells in Sweden seems to show that there can be an immune response without antibodies. If this T cell response lasts a few years, it ought to be helpful to reduce the impact of the virus in coming years, possibly buying time for an effective vaccine to be developed.

 

Not really! I thought you were being pithy about natural selection and letting it run free. Incremental treatments seem pretty obviously to me what is likely to happen. I think that, for the next couple of years at least, this is what we'll be left with as the only real way forward. Mitigation and treatment rather than a cure as, for example is the treatment for HIV. It is why so much more needs to be discovered about the effect of the virus on the heart, brain, organs etc. It seems there is a different report everyday about a new and novel way in which the virus apparently screws over the human body.

If you had an early enough test, you wouldn't perhaps need to lockdown. With the right organisation, with any outbreak, you could get people to self isolate for a couple of days before mass testing (contact tracing as well for smaller outbreaks, of course) and then let people get back to work with the confidence they weren't spreading the virus. The Darpa test mooted back in May and which hasn't been mentioned since (so I presume it doesn't work) would supposedly be able to diagnose cases from 24 hours of infection from a blood test. If such a test did work, you'd have massive expenditure to organise enough localised testing capacity but it would be worth the cost to remove the vast expense of lockdown.

Same goes for travel - you might have to quarantine in a hotel or other facility for a day or two before being tested before a flight. Would be a way to possibly gradually reduce the overall spread closer to zero.

On another note, I was slightly disconcerted to read the research indicating that people with blood group A may be more at risk of severe infection than other blood groups. I think I'm A- so that's not good news, small though the additional risk may be!

 

T-cells are supposed to be a lifetime protection. They are a specialist form of white blood cell designed to target that specific disease. Once trained from the first infection, your body keeps a supply of these on hand in the bone marrow. The moment a new infection is detected, these cells are called into action and result in a very rapid immune response.

 

That doesn't mean we need forsake medical treatment.

There are a lot of eyes on everything happening. What people don't realise is every disease has outliers and it's hard to tell what's normal for this disease versus what's exceptional and not going to be an issue once we get to a population with natural resistance.

Yes, but to get the point where you can contain small outbreaks, we need to get the current rampant infections down to near zero. That requires long-term lockdowns.

Realistically, the world will never be that organised. Look at the US - one nation that can't agree how to handle things. You won't get everyone supporting the official rules. You'll always get independent people doing their own thing, screwing with disease management. The idea of all nations co-ordinating effectively is remote. A vaccine that everyone could be zapped with is far more realistic an option.

You're also more at risk for other diseases. Though of course that balances out, as O's have their own increased risks.

Point being, if you are more at risk from Covid19, you are likely less at risk from something else. The genetic lottery is what it is.

 

Ohio's testing is at 18.3K for the day.
Ohio is at +1261 new cases, with Cuyahoga County at +151 new cases.
Test Positivity rate is around 6.87% for these new tests.

Here is the trends which is using reported date and not arbitrary and incorrectly identified user reported onset date. This graphic is resized by ~ 75% and taken from the State's Current Trends page: https://coronavirus.ohio.gov/wps/portal/gov/covid-19/dashboards/current-trends



Here is the raw data for the last few days, filling in the limited data that is available:

Spoiler: Raw Data

Code:

Date; Total Tests; New Tests; Tests per 1M Population; Total Cases; Cuyahoga County Cases; Hospitalizations; Total Deaths; New Cases; New Hospitalizations; New Deaths
2020-06-22;    656,318;    16,327;    56,148;    45,537;    5,734;    7,292;    2,704;    729;    50;    4
2020-06-23;    667,077;    10,759;    57,069;    46,127;    5,820;    7,379;    2,735;    590;    87;    31
2020-06-24;    680,687;    13,610;    58,233;    46,759;    5,964;    7,447;    2,755;    632;    68;    20
2020-06-25;    696,200;    15,513;    59,560;    47,651;    6,111;    7,502;    2,772;    892;    55;    17
2020-06-26;    718,086;    21,886;    61,433;    48,638;    6,287;    7,570;    2,788;    987;    68;    16
2020-06-27;    741,353;    23,267;    63,423;    49,455;    6,429;    7,624;    2,804;    817;    54;    16
2020-06-28;    753,246;    11,893;    64,441;    50,309;    6,571;    7,681;    2,807;    854;    57;    3
2020-06-29;    770,860;    17,614;    65,947;    51,046;    6,694;    7,746;    2,818;    737;    65;    11
2020-06-30;    784,362;    13,502;    67,103;    51,789;    6,831;    7,839;    2,863;    743;    93;    45
2020-07-01;    788,403;    4,041;    67,448;    52,865;    7,013;    7,911;    2,876;    1,076;    72;    13
2020-07-02*;    789,704;    1,301;    67,560;    54,166;    7,013;    8,038;    2,886;    1,301;    127;    10
2020-07-03*;    824,481;    34,777;    70,535; 55,257;    7,392;    8,084;    2,903;    1,091;    46;    17
2020-07-04;    844,675;    20,194;    72,262;    56,183;    7,571;    8,111;    2,907;    926;    27;    4
2020-07-05;    865,069;    20,394;    74,007;    57,151;    7,724;    8,172;    2,911;    968;    61;    4
2020-07-06;    877,688;    12,619;    75,087;    57,956;    7,883;    8,249;    2,927;    805;    77;    16
2020-07-07;    892,731;    15,043;    76,374;    58,904;    8,048;    8,383;    2,970;    948;    134;    43
2020-07-08;    911,905;    19,174;    78,014;    60,181;    8,277;    8,489;    2,991;    1,277;    106;    21
2020-07-09;    931,834;    19,929;    79,719;    61,331;    8,518;    8,570;    3,006;    1,150;    81;    15
2020-07-10;    955,697;    23,863;    81,760;    62,856;    8,786;    8,701;    3,032;    1,525;    131;    26
2020-07-11;    979,149;    23,452;    83,767;    64,214;    8,979;    8,770;    3,036;    1,358;    69;    4
2020-07-12;    1,002,463;    23,314;    85,761;    65,592;    9,208;    8,842;    3,058;    1,378;    72;    22
2020-07-13;    1,020,811;    18,348;    87,331;    66,853;    9,359;    8,915;    3,064;    1,261;    73;    6

 

Florida is at 282,435 with +12,624 new cases. They started this surge with only 57,447 cases on June 2, 2020.
Arizona is at 123,824 with +1,357 new cases.
Georgia is at 120,569 with +3,643 new cases.

 

Big numbers, but my forecast was overly pessimistic. Those two huge increases a fortnight ago weren't representative and Florida won't hit 50,000 by tomorrow. Maybe by the end of the month though.