Coronavirus Pandemic (COVID-19) (SARS-CoV-2) [2020]

[Shifty Geezer]

Henry Ford Study - A flawed Covid-19 study gets the White House’s attention

In addition, an explanation:

The study that sparked the latest controversy was anything but randomized. Not only was it not randomized, outside experts noted, but patients who received hydroxychloroquine were also more likely to get steroids, which appear to help very sick patients with Covid-19. That is likely to have influenced the central finding of the Henry Ford study: that death rates were 50% lower among patients in hospitals treated with hydroxychloroquine.​

 

[iroboto]

In addition, an explanation:

The study that sparked the latest controversy was anything but randomized. Not only was it not randomized, outside experts noted, but patients who received hydroxychloroquine were also more likely to get steroids, which appear to help very sick patients with Covid-19. That is likely to have influenced the central finding of the Henry Ford study: that death rates were 50% lower among patients in hospitals treated with hydroxychloroquine.​

Yea that was my major concern with it. It wasn't a random test. But it does seem to verify that if you curate the patients a specific way, you can save lives with some treatments.

But I don't think this is a cure at all.

It's like DLSS that only works on Control, and no other titles.

 

[Shifty Geezer]

Yea that was my major concern with it. It wasn't a random test. But it doesn't seem to verify that if you curate the patients a specific way, you can save lives with some treatments.

Or the other treatments helped and the HCQ did nothing. However, the improvements in recovery need to be identified as they should lead to other treatments.

Edit: If steroids, I guess it's the same thing found by Recover with Dex?

 

[BRiT]

On the topic of Face Mask Exemption Cards ... From the State Attorney for Palm Beach County (on Twitter):

My office has received reports of individuals attempting to use a "Face Mask Exempt Card" to evade Palm Beach County's mandatory mask order.

Please note that such cards have NO legal authority and businesses should not alter their mask policies based on them.

The cards and flyers assert a mask exemption based on the Americans with Disabilities Act (ADA). These claims are false: @TheJusticeDept "urges the public not to rely on the information contained in these postings and to visit ADA.gov for ADA information issued by the Department." (ada.gov/covid-19_flyer…).

Many of these cards illegally feature the seal of the U.S. Department of Justice, which is a federal crime.

The penalty for violating Palm Beach County's mandatory order is a potential fine. Do not be fooled by these so-called "exemption" cards, which do not carry any force of law. #WearAMask #FlaPol​

https://twitter.com/x/status/1281688027262320641

 

[BRiT]

Ohio's testing is at 23.4K for the day.
Ohio is at +1358 new cases, with Cuyahoga County at +193 new cases.
Test Positivity rate is around 5.79% for these new tests.

Here is the trends which is using reported date and not arbitrary and incorrectly identified user reported onset date. This graphic is resized by ~ 75% and taken from the State's Current Trends page: https://coronavirus.ohio.gov/wps/portal/gov/covid-19/dashboards/current-trends



Here is the raw data for the last few days, filling in the limited data that is available:

Spoiler: Raw Data

Date; Total Tests; New Tests; Tests per 1M Population; Total Cases; Cuyahoga County Cases; Hospitalizations; Total Deaths; New Cases; New Hospitalizations; New Deaths
2020-06-14;    543,260;    7,317;    46,476;    41,148;    5,175;    6,895;    2,557;    300;    31;    3
2020-06-15;    554,128;    10,868;    47,406;    41,576;    5,220;    6,948;    2,573;    428;    53;    16
2020-06-16;    565,034;    10,906;    48,339;    42,010;    5,271;    7,007;    2,597;    434;    59;    24
2020-06-17;    581,444;    16,410;    49,743;    42,422;    5,336;    7,051;    2,611;    412;    44;    14
2020-06-18;    596,875;    15,431;    51,063;    43,122;    5,404;    7,104;    2,633;    700;    53;    22
2020-06-19;    612,854;    15,979;    52,430;    43,731;    5,481;    7,167;    2,667;    609;    63;    34
2020-06-20;    626,765;    13,911;    53,620;    44,262;    5,555;    7,201;    2,697;    531;    34;    30
2020-06-21;    639,991;    13,226;    54,752;    44,808;    5,633;    7,242;    2,700;    546;    41;    3
2020-06-22;    656,318;    16,327;    56,148;    45,537;    5,734;    7,292;    2,704;    729;    50;    4
2020-06-23;    667,077;    10,759;    57,069;    46,127;    5,820;    7,379;    2,735;    590;    87;    31
2020-06-24;    680,687;    13,610;    58,233;    46,759;    5,964;    7,447;    2,755;    632;    68;    20
2020-06-25;    696,200;    15,513;    59,560;    47,651;    6,111;    7,502;    2,772;    892;    55;    17
2020-06-26;    718,086;    21,886;    61,433;    48,638;    6,287;    7,570;    2,788;    987;    68;    16
2020-06-27;    741,353;    23,267;    63,423;    49,455;    6,429;    7,624;    2,804;    817;    54;    16
2020-06-28;    753,246;    11,893;    64,441;    50,309;    6,571;    7,681;    2,807;    854;    57;    3
2020-06-29;    770,860;    17,614;    65,947;    51,046;    6,694;    7,746;    2,818;    737;    65;    11
2020-06-30;    784,362;    13,502;    67,103;    51,789;    6,831;    7,839;    2,863;    743;    93;    45
2020-07-01;    788,403;    4,041;    67,448;    52,865;    7,013;    7,911;    2,876;    1,076;    72;    13
2020-07-02*;    789,704;    1,301;    67,560;    54,166;    7,013;    8,038;    2,886;    1,301;    127;    10
2020-07-03*;    824,481;    34,777;    70,535; 55,257;    7,392;    8,084;    2,903;    1,091;    46;    17
2020-07-04;    844,675;    20,194;    72,262;    56,183;    7,571;    8,111;    2,907;    926;    27;    4
2020-07-05;    865,069;    20,394;    74,007;    57,151;    7,724;    8,172;    2,911;    968;    61;    4
2020-07-06;    877,688;    12,619;    75,087;    57,956;    7,883;    8,249;    2,927;    805;    77;    16
2020-07-07;    892,731;    15,043;    76,374;    58,904;    8,048;    8,383;    2,970;    948;    134;    43
2020-07-08;    911,905;    19,174;    78,014;    60,181;    8,277;    8,489;    2,991;    1,277;    106;    21
2020-07-09;    931,834;    19,929;    79,719;    61,331;    8,518;    8,570;    3,006;    1,150;    81;    15
2020-07-10;    955,697;    23,863;    81,760;    62,856;    8,786;    8,701;    3,032;    1,525;    131;    26
2020-07-11;    979,149;    23,452;    83,767;    64,214;    8,979;    8,770;    3,036;    1,358;    69;    4

 

[Shifty Geezer]

Many of these cards illegally feature the seal of the U.S. Department of Justice, which is a federal crime.

​

The penalty for violating Palm Beach County's mandatory order is a potential fine.

They ought to be prosecuted at the federal level for forging the US government!

 

[Davros]

They've made a forged government, who did they get to play trump ?

 

[pascal]

Yea I agree with this. If you're on your death bed, you'll take w/e experimental drug you need to survive.

Interesting paper, I went through it, I didn't see anything wrong. It's good that they got results, normally I would be like 'great', but there are also so many peer reviewed papers through random testing that showed no results. If this was like standard shit talking on a random topic, I can just roll with whatever, once peoples lives are involved, I'm conservative is prescribing anything because I'm not a doctor by any means. So to me, I guess I would take away is to go for it if you're going to die. But far from a solidified cure.

They did curate the patients who received it, they will need to see if they can replicate the results at Henry Ford here. A simple test is to curate the same as this hospital but don't administer HCQ medicine.

This was with 2541 patients of six hospitals!

71% hazard reduction means we could have saved 700 people for each 1000 people who died.
This is a lot of people.

The key apply HCQ-AZ (Hydoxycloroquine with Azitromicin) in the very BEGINING, the phase 1 when the virus is replicating.

 

[pascal]

Curious, as that's the very opposite of what other reports have found. The UK Recovery investigation found this:

"A total of 1542 patients were randomised to hydroxychloroquine and compared with 3132 patients randomised to usual care alone. There was no significant difference in the primary endpoint of 28-day mortality (25.7% hydroxychloroquine vs. 23.5% usual care; hazard ratio 1.11 [95% confidence interval 0.98-1.26]; p=0.10). There was also no evidence of beneficial effects on hospital stay duration or other outcomes."

There's no peer-reviewed paper on the HCQ trial AFAICS, but there is on the results of Dexamethasone. In the event that the DMS is considered a good evaluation, one would have to assume the rest of the other 4 treatments, at which point why such different outcomes?

Okay, having a read a bit, it seems there may be benefit of HCQ in intubated patients same as Dex, but that data wasn't made apparent in the Recovery release. However, the Recovery investigation definitely found no improvement in normal patients.

Also checking the IJID article, I see this:

I wonder if the negatives found in earlier studies were offset by careful medical management, but as such, HCQ can't be freely given and needs management, which won't help in situations where the medical services are swamped. That's obviously not a problem for the Brazilian President.

WHEN and HOW are as or more important as WHAT is used.

The combo HCQ-AZ should be used immediatelly in the beginning to diminish the viral replication phase, giving time to the immune system.

Better see the protocol used.

 

[A1xLLcqAgt0qc2RyMz0y]

Patient Dies After Going to 'COVID Party,' Thought It Was a Hoax: Official

https://www.msn.com/en-us/news/us/p...ty-thought-it-was-a-hoax-official/ar-BB16CCy8
https://www.msn.com/en-us/news/us/p...ty-thought-it-was-a-hoax-official/ar-BB16CCy8
Jane Appleby, chief medical officer for Methodist Healthcare in San Antonio, said in a recorded statement to News 4 San Antonio that she heard a "heartbreaking" story about a 30-year-old patient who attended a COVID party.

"This is a party held by somebody diagnosed with the COVID virus and the thought is that people get together to see if the virus is real and if anyone gets infected," Appleby said. "Just before the patient died, they looked at their nurse and said 'I think I made a mistake, I thought this was a hoax, but it's not.'"

"This is just one example of a potentially avoidable death of a young member in our community and I can't imagine the loss in the family," the doctor said, adding that there are multiple patients in their 20s and 30s in critical condition due to the novel coronavirus.

Appleby said she released details of this case to show no one is "invincible" from COVID-19 that is adversely younger people.

"It doesn't discriminate and none of us are invincible. I don't want to be an alarmist and we're just trying to share some real-world examples to help our community realize that this virus is very serious and can spread easily," Appleby said.

So-called "COVID parties" have been an issue across the United States with younger people. Students from the University of Alabama organized multiple COVID parties to see who would get infected first, according to Tuscaloosa City Councilor Sonya McKinstry.

"They put money in a pot and they try to get COVID. Whoever gets COVID first gets the pot. It makes no sense...They're intentionally doing it," McKinstry said in an interview with ABC News July 1.

A North Carolina nurse said multiple patients attended COVID parties to intentionally try catch the virus. Yolanda Enrich, a nurse practitioner, said in a May interview with KOAT Action 7 News that medical professionals were worried "because not everyone that becomes infected with the virus produces antibodies."

"We have heard from a lot of patients and the community that they're unafraid of getting the virus, so people are actually out and about trying to get the virus – attending gatherings, parties – just trying to maximize their chances of exposure," Enrich said.

North Carolina Governor Roy Cooper commented on the trend, calling it "completely irresponsible and absolutely unacceptable" at the time.

 

[pascal]

I wonder if the negatives found in earlier studies were offset by careful medical management, but as such, HCQ can't be freely given and needs management, which won't help in situations where the medical services are swamped. That's obviously not a problem for the Brazilian President.

The president was atended by the militar hospital´s doctor with standard procedures.
He is 65 years old and up to now is fine and using cheap standard HCQ and AZ pills and resting at home.

Tried to work and they said go home!

 

[iroboto]

This was with 2541 patients of six hospitals!

71% hazard reduction means we could have saved 700 people for each 1000 people who died.
This is a lot of people.

The key apply HCQ-AZ (Hydoxycloroquine with Azitromicin) in the very BEGINING, the phase 1 when the virus is replicating.

If it was 2500 random tests. Sure. But they weren’t random. They were cherry picking who would get the drug.

this means there are other factors at play. That’s sort of the issue with saying its going to fix things.

This is where I get conservative, the information is inconclusive. Once again, if we’re talking about harmless hobbies; okay I might have some fun here. But real lives are at stake, i refuse to be reckless is statement agreement or making

 

[pascal]

If it was 2500 random tests. Sure. But they weren’t random. They were cherry picking who would get the drug.

this means there are other factors at play. That’s sort of the issue with saying its going to fix things.

This is where I get conservative, the information is inconclusive. Once again, if we’re talking about harmless hobbies; okay I might have some fun here. But real lives are at stake, i refuse to be reckless is statement agreement or making

I understand but they can not apply the protocol to everybody because cardiac concerns with HCQ.
The more toxic form Cloroquine has ben used in Brazil for decades for Malaria without this concern.
Brazilian Army soldiers use it during peace missions! See the video of a soldier using.
He is saying his entire 1300 soldiers team is using it in a mission.
He use only half of the pill.
He visited Africa, Haiti etc...

HCQ is much less toxic.
Anyway, the idea is having it used by people who can use it.

The Multivariable Cox Regression Model for Mortality Prediction is very good for the HCQ-AZ combination, 71% is not to be discarded and IMHO not using it waiting a 100% cure is something we cant afford during a pandemic.

 

[iroboto]

I understand but they can not apply the protocol to everybody because cardiac concerns with HCQ.
The more toxic form Cloroquine has ben used in Brazil for decades for Malaria without this concern.
Brazilian Army soldiers use it during peace missions! See the video of a soldier using.
He is saying his entire 1300 soldiers team is using it in a mission.
He use only half of the pill.
He visited Africa, Haiti etc...

HCQ is much less toxic.
Anyway, the idea is having it used by people who can use it.

The Multivariable Cox Regression Model for Mortality Prediction is very good for the HCQ-AZ combination, 71% is not to be discarded and IMHO not using it waiting a 100% cure is something we cant afford during a pandemic.

It’s not necessarily efficient which is the issue. The discussion clouds the judgment of discussion and things we can do to prevent people from dying.

It would be worse imo to give people a false sense of security thinking HCQ is going to save them. It’s not proven any better. So I rather people just do what we know works, it’s entirely free and it works on a great deal of many diseases, which is following social distancing rules.

 

[pascal]

Social distancing rules are prevention.
What to do with people with the disease?

 

[iroboto]

Social distancing rules are prevention.
What to do with people with the disease?

Nothing. isolate.

And if you are dying and not recovering; go to the hospital.
And if you are asked to take HCQ or other experimental treatments, it’s up to you.

 

[BRiT]

Social distancing rules are prevention.
What to do with people with the disease?

Send them to 1600 Pennsylvania Avenue NW.

 

[Arwin]

Shifty the best numbers to use are the following. For the most accurate estimate of the rate of infection, use antibodies as found in blood donations by blood banks. These have given us very accurate results.

As for mortality, you need to look at the actual number of registered deaths and compare them to what you would statistically have expected the figure to be.

This was very clear in the Netherlands vs Belgium. In the Netherlands we only counted deaths where we had confirmed with tests were patients with covid 19 infections. In Belgium, the doctors only needed to suspect covid 19. Comparing the expected deaths against actually recorded deaths, it showed the Belgians were pretty close whereas we greatly underreported (by the thousands).

As for mortality, your figures aren’t consistent. You cannot both have 1% for those needing respirators and 1% deaths, that has to be percentages of different groups.

Same of the latest estimates suggest 0.5-1% mortality rate, which is still 5-10x flu. However there are also nasty side effects and the blood-clotting that the virus causes also causes strokes, heart and brain, with sometimes severe long lasting or permanent effects and disability.

More importantly, the number of people needing respirators must stay under the capacity of medical staff and equipment, or the death toll starts rising quickly, as was seen in Italy. This is what the lockdown must do.

Furthermore, critically we do not know if people even get properly immune after infection or for how long (Corona virusses can mutate very quickly which is one of the reasons the common cold is so persistent.)

I think you can say that regardless of what happens, countries that acted with the right response at the right time (ie as soon as possible) all look to come out of this mess a lot better than those that didn’t.

 

[A1xLLcqAgt0qc2RyMz0y]

2019 Novel Coronavirus (SARS-CoV-2/COVID-19) for Dallas County Texas
https://www.dallascounty.org/departments/dchhs/2019-novel-coronavirus.php

July 11, 2020 - 32,626 confirmed cases - 449 deaths

32,626 confirmed cases up 1,101 and four new deaths
those 1,101 new cases represent a 3.5% increase over the last day

Increases (by percent) since March 27, 2020 :
21.0%, 19.6%, 11.1%, 12.5%, 14.9%
-- Month of April 2020 --
15.8%, 13.7%, 10.8%, 10.2%, 9.6%, 3.9%, 9.2%, 5.0%, 8.2%, 7.3%, 7.0%, 4.8%, 3.8%, 5.0%, 5.8%,
4.0%, 6.0%, 6.1%, 4.5%, 3.5%, 3.6%, 3.1%, 3.0%, 2.6%, 2.6%, 3.6%, 3.0%, 4.3%, 3.5%, 5.3%
-- Month of May 2020 --
5.3%, 4.9%, 6.0%, 5.7%, 5.9%, 5.3%, 5.2%, 4.9%, 4.7%, 4.5%, 4.3%, 3.9%, 3.8%, 3.6%, 2.9%, 3.0%,
2.8%, 3.0%, 2.9%, 2.4%, 2.3%, 2.5%, 2.0%, 2.1%, 1.9%, 2.1%, 2.1%, 2.2%, 2.1%, 2.2%, 2.3%
-- Month of June 2020 --
2.2%, 2.5%, 2.2%, 2.6%, 2.7%, 2.5%, 2.2%, 2.1%, 2.4%, 2.4%, 2.4%, 2.5%, 2.5%, 2.2%, 2.1%,
2.1%, 2.8%, 2.6%, 2.4%, 2.5%, 2.5%, 2.7%, 2.6%, 2.2%, 2.2%, 2.7%, 2.9%, 2.9%, 2.8%, 2.9%
-- Month of July 2020 --
2.5%, 3.2%, 4.8%, 4.7%, 4.3%, 4.7%, 4.0%, 3.7%, 4.1%, 3.8% and now 3.5%

Increases (by count) since March 27, 2020 :
+64, +72, +49, +61, +82
-- Month of April 2020 --
+100, +100, +90, +94, +97. +43, +106, +63, +108, +105, +107, +79, +65, +89, +109,
+80, +124, +134, +104, +84, +90, +81, +80, +71, +75, +105, +91, +135, +112, +179
-- Month of May 2020 --
+187, +181, +234, +237, +253, +246, +251, +249, +250, +251, +253, +236, +243, +235, +199, +214,
+205, +224, +225, +186, +183, +204, +172, +178, +171, +190, +197, +202, +200, +219, +228
-- Month of June 2020 --
+228, +257, +239, +285, +298, +289, +263, +254, +298, +300, +312, +328, +345, +302, +305,
+306, +413, +392, +394, +395, +408, +454, +445, +391, +403, +496, +561, +570, +572, +601
-- Month of July 2020 --
+544, +708, +1,085, +1,103, +1,062, +1,214, +1,077, +1,029, +1,201, +1,164 and now +1,101

As of 11:00 a.m. July 11, 2020, Dallas County Health and Human Services is reporting 1,101 additional positive cases of 2019 novel coronavirus (COVID-19) and four additional deaths, bringing the total case count in Dallas County to 32,626, including 449 deaths.

The additional 4 deaths being reported today include:

• A man in his 50’s who was a resident of the City of Carrollton. He had been critically ill in an area hospital, and had underlying high risk health conditions.
• A woman in her 70’s who was a resident of the City of Dallas. She had been hospitalized, and had underlying high risk health conditions.
• A woman in her 70’s who was a resident of a long-term care facility in the City of Mesquite. She had been hospitalized, and had underlying high risk health conditions.
• A woman in her 90’s who was a resident of a long-term care facility in the City of Richardson. She expired in the facility, and had underlying high risk health conditions.

An increasing proportion of COVID-19 cases in Dallas County are being diagnosed in young adults between 18 to 39 years of age, such that of all cases reported after June 1st, half have been in this age group.

Increasing reports of cases are continuing to be associated with multiple large recreational and social gatherings since the beginning of June, including house parties.

Of the cases requiring hospitalization to date, more than two-thirds have been under 65 years of age. Diabetes has been an underlying high-risk health condition reported in about a third of all hospitalized patients with COVID-19.

The percentage of respiratory specimens testing positive for SARS-CoV-2 was 30% among symptomatic patients presenting to area hospitals in week 27.

The age-adjusted rates of confirmed COVID-19 cases in non-hospitalized patients have been highest among Hispanics (667.4 per 100,000), Asians (187.4 per 100,000) and Blacks (136.4 per 100,000). These rates have been higher than Whites (43.8 per 100,000). Over 60% of overall COVID-19 cases to date have been Hispanic.

Of cases requiring hospitalization who reported employment, over 80% have been critical infrastructure workers, with a broad range of affected occupational sectors, including: healthcare, transportation, food and agriculture, public works, finance, communications, clergy, first responders and other essential functions.

Of the 449 total deaths reported to date, about a third have been associated with long-term care facilities.

 

[A1xLLcqAgt0qc2RyMz0y]

State of Texas complete COVID-19 data breakdown

https://txdshs.maps.arcgis.com/apps/opsdashboard/index.html#/ed483ecd702b4298ab01e8b9cafc8b83
https://txdshs.maps.arcgis.com/apps/opsdashboard/index.html#/0d8bdf9be927459d9cb11b9eaef6101

Data as of 7/11/2020 @3:35 PM:

Total Tests: 2,710,290 (Up +65,794)

Total Viral Tests: 2,429,624 (Up +39,835)

Only 89.6% of Total Tests are Viral Tests the other 10.4% of tests are the useless Antibody Tests

Cases Reported: 250,462 (Up +10,351)

Fatalities: 3,112 (Up +99)

Texas tests per 1M population are 93,472 (Up +2,270) which places Texas as the 11th worst State.

Click this link: https://www.worldometers.info/coronavirus/country/us and on the page click the Tests / 1M pop column twice to sort from worst to first

They are using roughly 28.996 million as the population of Texas.

Texas is mixing Viral and Antibody Tests in the total test numbers which is very bad as Antibody Tests are useless in determining if someone has the Coronavirus.

As of today the real number of Total Viral Tests for Texas is 2,429,624 which works out to be 83,792 per 1M population so Texas is really the 9th worst state in testing