Chances of NextGen Console Launch in 5 years?

[mpg1]

Isn't it apprx doubling the amount of stuff they can cram when they go from 28nm -> 16nm and roughly doubling again 16nm -> 7nm? How would 7nm achieve nearly 7X the amount density of 28nm?
Edit: @ToTTenTranz

 

[AlNom]

Think of it like producing 4 Pro and then disabling half the GPU for the peasant version instead.

or... just making an APU on the latest node and a peasant version on the previous node.

He didn't specify the parameters of density or performance level relative to current gen. You would obviously have to produce either a smaller chip for the base release or make it a binned version of the higher level SKU (like desktop GPUs would do for Pro/XT).

Or who knows, just make the higher level SKU much higher clocked and make the Pro Bros pay for it - no HW-level differences for devs to contend with.

 

[Jubei]

Isn't it apprx doubling the amount of stuff they can cram when they go from 28nm -> 16nm and roughly doubling again 16nm -> 7nm? How would 7nm achieve nearly 7X the amount density of 28nm?
Edit: @ToTTenTranz

7nm is 3,3X density of 16FF+

 

[Megadrive1988]

What is going to be the difference between 7nm and 7nm+ and is it likely that console SoCs can be made using EUV ?

 

[Deleted member 13524]

Isn't it apprx doubling the amount of stuff they can cram when they go from 28nm -> 16nm and roughly doubling again 16nm -> 7nm? How would 7nm achieve nearly 7X the amount density of 28nm?
Edit: @ToTTenTranz

According to the numbers I saw in anandtech's articles, it's 50% reduction 28>16FF; 50% 16FF>10FF; >37% 10FF>7FF; 10-20% 7FF DUV > 7FF EUV.
http://www.anandtech.com/show/11337/samsung-and-tsmc-roadmaps-12-nm-8-nm-and-6-nm-added

What is going to be the difference between 7nm and 7nm+ and is it likely that console SoCs can be made using EUV ?

What are you calling 7nm+? Is it 7FF EUV?
It seems that everything below 7nm will need to use Extreme UltraViolet lithography:
http://www.anandtech.com/show/10097...-good-progress-still-not-ready-for-prime-time

And the 7FF DUV we're seeing from TSMC and GF will actually be more like a half-node (more like three quarters node?) between 10FF and 7FF EUV, given the possible area reduction between DUV and EUV.

Regardless, any console chip that pursues the best possible lithography will need to use EUV, starting in 2020 or so.

 

[iroboto]

According to the numbers I saw in anandtech's articles, it's 50% reduction 28>16FF; 50% 16FF>10FF; >37% 10FF>7FF; 10-20% 7FF DUV > 7FF EUV.
http://www.anandtech.com/show/11337/samsung-and-tsmc-roadmaps-12-nm-8-nm-and-6-nm-added



What are you calling 7nm+? Is it 7FF EUV?
It seems that everything below 7nm will need to use Extreme UltraViolet lithography:
http://www.anandtech.com/show/10097...-good-progress-still-not-ready-for-prime-time

And the 7FF DUV we're seeing from TSMC and GF will actually be more like a half-node (more like three quarters node?) between 10FF and 7FF EUV, given the possible area reduction between DUV and EUV.

Regardless, any console chip that pursues the best possible lithography will need to use EUV, starting in 2020 or so.

I assume this is the predicted timeline? Haven't there been 'delays' in the past? Are we expecting any possible roadblocks? Or will we actually be at 7FF in 2020?

 

[Jubei]

I assume this is the predicted timeline? Haven't there been 'delays' in the past? Are we expecting any possible roadblocks? Or will we actually be at 7FF in 2020?

7FF already passed risk production with healthy yields. It will be available next year but most likely Apple will hoard the entire volume. So 2020 will be a mature 7FF EUV process available, 5nm will go into risk production in 2019, thats the node that everyone questions wether it can happen on time or not

 

[iroboto]

7FF already passed risk production with healthy yields. It will be available next year but most likely Apple will hoard the entire volume. So 2020 will be a mature 7FF EUV process available, 5nm will go into risk production in 2019, thats the node that everyone questions wether it can happen on time or not

This makes 2020 more plausible as a timeline. Do we know which foundries specifically? Do we continue to assume GoFlo for the consoles ?

 

[Jubei]

This makes 2020 more plausible as a timeline. Do we know which foundries specifically? Do we continue to assume GoFlo for the consoles ?

Sorry should have been more clear. I was talking about TSMC specifically since Sony has used them for both PS4/Pro/Slim. IIRC GloFo was behind on 14nm and had to partner up with Samsung to roll it out on time. I believe this time they have been working with or bought IBMs semi group and 7nm also seems to be on time for launch in 2018. TSMC will most likely beat them when it comes to 7nm EUV process, so i suspect that is what Sony will use for a hypothetical 2020 launch

 

[rokkerkory]

I think next iteration of consoles would be:
- PlayStation in fall 2020 (major revision)
- Xbox in fall 2021 (major revision)
- Switch in fall 2019 (minor revision)